It's time to grade the 2006 Bills Draft

[BillsVet]

The 2006 draft has caused as much controversy as any one subject I've seen. I thought it was finally time to apply grades to the players Buffalo took on Draft Day 06. Player grading criteria included the following:

 

1. The quality of play that player has demonstrated.

2. Place where the player was drafted. It's absurd to apply the same expectations to a 1st rounder as you would a 7th rounder.

 

I did not take into consideration which players were available after a given player was selected. However, there can be no question that better options were available nearly each time Buffalo was on the clock.

 

1A. Donte Whitner. S Ohio State (8th overall) Whitner has played in 43 games while starting 42 in three seasons. Whitner has played both SS and FS, and appears destined to play FS for the forseeable future. Has recorded 2 INT's, 2 FF, 0 FR and 1 sack in that time. Per PFR, has 185 solo tackles and 70 assists.

 

Whitner's 08 prediction that Buffalo would make the playoffs did not come to fruition. Whitner transitioned to the FS role with Bryan Scott taking his spot when Ko Simpson faltered. He has not shown ball-hawking skills commensurate with a safety, though some argue it is how he is used in Buffalo's defense. Cannot be considered a bust, although he is not the playmaker Buffalo anticipated he would be at this point in his career. One of the few vocal leaders on the team.

 

Grade: C+

 

1B. John McCargo. DT North Caroline State (26th overall) McCargo injured his foot after a handful of games in 2006 and was IR'd. Returned in 07, though did not start any games, and went on to collect 2.5 sacks and make a few good plays. Began 2008 as a backup DT and had little impact. IR'd late in the season.

 

Bills traded a 2nd and 3rd to Chicago for the chance to move up and get him. Those picks were sorely needed as the Bills rebuilt after TD's era. Early in 2008, DL Coach Bill Kollar questioned his work ethic, and McCargo was again relegated to backup status. Bills attempted to trade the underachieving DT, but McCargo did not pass a physical. Thereafter, he was IR'd again in 2008. He will not return in 2009, and should be considered a bust.

 

Grade: F

 

3. Ashton Youboty. CB Ohio State (70th overall) Youboty missed much of 2006 after the death of his mother. Played sparingly on special teams late in the season. Began 2007 buried on the depth chart, but started 3 games before being injured. Has 1 INT, and 1 FF in three seasons. Played nickel CB during 2008, but was IR'd late in the season.

 

Youboty has not been able to remain healthy in 3 seasons. As a result, he's only been able to start 4 games and play in 19 at CB. Jabari Greer took over as starting CB when Youboty went down in 07 and never relinquished the job. Youboty showed improvement in 08, and won the nickel CB job. May return in 2009, the final year of his contract. Must stay healthy if he has any future in the NFL.

 

Grade: C

 

4. Ko Simpson. S South Carolina (105th overall) Simpson took over for an injured Troy Vincent early in 2006 and played in all 16 games, starting 15. 2 INT's and 1 FF in his rookie season. His 2007 season ended with a broken foot during the first game of the year. Simpson returned in 2008, but lost his job when Whitner moved to FS and Bryan Scott took over at SS.

 

Simpson's ball skills are underwhelming. He has not replicated his play from 2006 and is often very late arriving in coverage. Arrested recently and his future is in serious doubt. Reportedly, "worth millions."

 

Grade: C-

 

5A Kyle Williams. DT LSU (134th overall) Williams has started at DT for Buffalo since his rookie season. Has four sacks and one forced fumble. Outplayed McCargo in training camp to win the job. Signed to a contract extension in July 2008.

 

Williams has short arms with less athleticism than McCargo. Makes a few plays, but isn't a playmaker. Seems to get lost in the phone booth. Probably best served in a depth role, but with Buffalo's lack of depth on DL he must start. Williams is a hard worker but lacks the physical capabilities to be a good player in the NFL.

 

Grade: B-

 

5B Brad Butler OL Virginia (143rd overall) Butler sat on the bench in 2006, but received the starting job in 07 after missing most of the preseason. Began 2008 as the starting RG. Injured for a few games in 08 and line played somewhat better with him in the lineup.

 

Butler got the starting job over Jason Whittle and Duke Preston before 07 season began. Butler can be engulfed by larger DT's. An average NFL guard, Butler inked a contract extension recently as well.

 

Grade: B

 

6 Keith Ellison LB Oregon State (178th overall) Ellison was touted as a smart player when drafted in 06. Began season behind Takeo Spikes, but became starter when injuries mounted. Started in 2007 and 08 at times when more injuries occurred.

 

Ellison is an undersized LB who is better in pass coverage than against the run. He consistently is overwhelmed by tight ends and takes poor angles. Best suited for a backup role, and doesn't have the frame to get bigger. Received playing time because Buffalo's depth at LB was so poor in all three seasons.

 

Grade: C

 

7A. Terrance Pennington OT New Mexico (216th overall) Pennington was forced into play midway through the 2006 season when Buffalo made moves to their OL. Struggled in run blocking. Cut after 2006 and went to Atlanta. Now out of the league.

 

Pennington was a late attempt to improve the OL. His play was substandard and physically was not able to match up in the NFL.

 

7B. Aaron Merz OL California (248th overall) Merz was a former walk on at Cal who did not translate into the pro game at guard. Missed entire 2007 season and was cut before 2008. Currently out of the league.

 

 

Overall, Buffalo used their top 5 picks on defenders, although 3 of their first four were DB's. The 2006 draft was panned by experts, but after the first season looked very good. After three years, these players have not formed the base that Marv Levy and Dick Jauron expected them to be. It also must be questioned why the Bills allocated so many picks to the secondary when huge holes existed on the OL and DL. Overall, this draft is probably no better than average with much of that depending on if Whitner, Butler, and Williams can improve in year 4.

[lets_go_bills]

Not bad.

 

Whitner would be much better in his natural SS role with someone good next to him playing FS.

 

I think you're wrong about Kyle Williams, he has been quite a find and is a good player. The is becomming fairly consistent and is turning into a good player. He is more than a depth player, he is a decent starter and may still get better. DT could still use an upgrade, yes, but I truly think you've underestimated Kyle's contributions to the team.

[CJPearl2]

Gee, I don't think we've ever talked about this draft here. Good post.

[justnzane]

good analysis, I think Whitner would receive higher marks if the Bills had a decent pass rush. Also, Whitner's versatility has been incredibly useful when injuries have occured.

 

This season when a few of the corners were down, the Bills had Whitner playing corner, while Scott and Ko would play deep. There were a few times where Scott and Whitner started together with Whitner at Strong and Scott at Free, and vice versa.

[The Dean]

Excellent idea for a threat, Vet.

 

Whitner: Despite his troubles in the second half of 2008, Whitner has been the best and most versatile player on the Bills D for nearly three years. He did the near impossible in 2007 by playing nearly every defensive down, for much of the season, and filling in at several different positions. The lack of a pass rush, and the way the coaches utilize him in the defense doesn't allow for him to make the kind of impact that some elite SS make. (Of course, part of that conservative approach by the coaches was likely due to injuries). Not yet elite, but is recognized as one of the better SS in the league: B+

 

McCargo: Showed flashed, but was injured too often. Hard to flunk a pick because of injuries, but can't give him a good grade based on the little he played. I'm going to guess that, based on what we did see, he would have graded out to a C or C-, if healthy: D

 

Youboty: Was thought to possibly be not quite ready for the NFL when drafted, but with a big upside when developed. His first year was destroyed by personal/family issues. He seemed to be coming along in 2007 and then was injured again. Still, in limited action, it was clear that the guy could play. Finally, in 2008 he made a believer out of most by winning the Nickel spot and excelling their. He's a good cover guy and a GREAT tackler. But, once again, he got hit with the injury ending his season. Youboty is really the wild card, here. He could turn out to be an A pick...or be a total bust if he can't stay on the field. Right now: C

 

Ko Simpson: A FS that started, and produced, sooner than expected. At the end of the first year, it looked as though he and Whitner were developing something special. That got derailed in 2007 with Ko's injury. Ko had a less than spectecular year in 2008, but had 2 or three outstanding performances after returning from his demotion to the 2nd team. That level didn't continue through the end of the year, though. Ko takes some bad angles, that is true. But he has a nose for the ball, and is probably overplaying, in an otherwise passive defensive scheme. Still the guy is a starting FS in the NFL. He'd look better in a more aggressive defense, and/or with a better pass rush. C+

 

Kyle Williams: 5th round DT is a good starter with the team. Even if the Bills get a star DT in FA, or in the draft, Williams will be part of the rotation. Stays healthy, doesn't make a lot of mistakes: Solid B

 

Brad Butler: Another 5th round solid player who is in the starting line up, and isn't about to lose that spot. The running game is always better with Butler, who is a battler. Not a star, just a solid offensive lineman. Needs to stay on the field more, though. B+

 

Keith Ellison: 6th round LB picked for his smarts. versatility and speed. Always meant as a depth/ST guy, he has had to play as a starter, due to injuries. He is undersized but doesn't make many mistakes. The guy is not a bone fide starter, but he has done a decent job, and probably surpasses the original hopes for him, as a backup. B+/A- due to the round he was picked and his outplaying expectations.

 

Pennington and Merz: F...but 7th rounders aren't really counted on to make the team, so it has no negative impact on the final draft grade.

 

Draft Grade: Levy and company had to fill some major holes, after cleaning house of old and overpaid players. The team had only won 5 games the previous year, and it was clear that they were going to try to rebuild with younger players. But, the idea was, they would rebuild WITHOUT a decline in the win-loss record. So, it was imperitave that the players picked were solid guys, and would fill the positions for which they were drafted. Gambling was not really an option, in this draft.

 

The draft only has one true washout (McCargo...not counting the 7th rounders) in the draft, and that was due to injury. Even with McCargo's departure, the draft produced FOUR starting players, another that has started much of his time here (Ellison) and one with obvious starting talent if he can stay healthy (Youboty). It fulfilled its mission, and more.

 

Final grade B or B+. Depending on the future of Youboty, and the play of Simpson next year, it could improve to an A-, of slip to a C+.

[spartacus]

good analysis, I think Whitner would receive higher marks if the Bills had a decent pass rush. Also, Whitner's versatility has been incredibly useful when injuries have occured.

 

This season when a few of the corners were down, the Bills had Whitner playing corner, while Scott and Ko would play deep. There were a few times where Scott and Whitner started together with Whitner at Strong and Scott at Free, and vice versa.

 

The point with Whitner is that someone taken at #8 should be a playmaker by himself, not dependent on having above average players all around him.

 

 

sounds a lot like Bledsoe - he be real good if everyone else on the team was real good too.

 

While Whitner is a solid starter, the Bills will never be contenders if that's all they get from their high #1 picks. Top 10 picks need to be bona fide, impact playmakers.

[eSJayDee]

Very solid assessment, though personally I'd give a few higher grades.

 

Whitner is a solid starter & I think he makes a better FS than SS, so I think he deserves a higher grade, maybe a B.

 

As some of McCargo's can be attributable to injury issues, I'd be reluctant to give him an F; D- for now.

 

Curious that you grade Williams below Butler, yet he has contributed throughout his career & I think quite well for a 5th rounder. I think I might switch these two guys grades.

[Erik]

I know it's a little earlier to look at the '07 and '08 drafts but as a snap judgment I would say Levy/Brandon etc. has done a pretty decent job finding some really solid players in the late rounds. If Whitner ever turns that corner they would have three really impressive first picks as well, assuming Lynch and McKelvin continue to develop at the rate that they have so far.

[Sisyphean Bills]

I'd give McCargo and Youboty incompletes. Players that can't get on or stay on the field because of injuries just do not help a team, regardless of whether or not people speculate they may or may not have talent. Finding 5 average players in a draft is pretty good, although not exactly the foundation to build a contender around.

[vincec]

5A Kyle Williams. DT LSU (134th overall) Williams has started at DT for Buffalo since his rookie season. Has four sacks and one forced fumble. Outplayed McCargo in training camp to win the job. Signed to a contract extension in July 2008.

 

Williams has short arms with less athleticism than McCargo. Makes a few plays, but isn't a playmaker. Seems to get lost in the phone booth. Probably best served in a depth role, but with Buffalo's lack of depth on DL he must start. Williams is a hard worker but lacks the physical capabilities to be a good player in the NFL.

 

I'm not sure what to make of Kyle Williams. I though that he played pretty well last season and I expected a breakout season this year playing next to Stroud, but it just didn't happen. Maybe he's better suited to playing over the nose? How about flipping Stroud and Williams? Didn't Stroud play the 3-technique in Jacksonville with Henderson playing over the nose?

[bflobarry]

I think Williams, while not a dominator, is consistantly underrated. In re-watching the Cheatriot game, he was the best defensive player we had that day. And, at the risk of blapheming, Whitner is simply not the player we hoped to build around at the #8 overall spot. Yes, he is versatile, but he's not really good at either SS or 3rd corner. And he showed zero ball skills at FS in his few starts there. In fact, he was toasted several times. As others have said, we have far more glaring needs to fill (i.e. Kelsay-UGH), but all of this Whitner love is, IMO, wishful thinking.

[BillsVet]

Excellent idea for a threat, Vet.

 

The draft only has one true washout (McCargo...not counting the 7th rounders) in the draft, and that was due to injury. Even with McCargo's departure, the draft produced FOUR starting players, another that has started much of his time here (Ellison) and one with obvious starting talent if he can stay healthy (Youboty). It fulfilled its mission, and more.

 

Final grade B or B+. Depending on the future of Youboty, and the play of Simpson next year, it could improve to an A-, of slip to a C+.

 

Dean, you know where I stand on the 06 draft. While much better than 05, there are serious questions about rebuilding a football team starting with the secondary. I find it ironic many fans are talking about drafting OL and DL, yet the Bills had the chance in three drafts to do that and haven't. When they do take a high DT, the guy is a flop.

 

I'd grade this draft a C. No playmakers, and much of the secondary depth they have is from guys like Corner and McKelvin. Youboty will be in the mix, but his durability is almost nil. Butler and Williams are value picks and decent, but neither is especially strong. I don't think Simpson will be back, as his cap hit is minimal and the Bills can't be thrilled with his off-field transgressions. His recognition is poor and if he was more of the star like he thinks he is, perhaps he'd return. Safety depth isn't hard to acquire. When McCargo's position coach called him out and he couldn't start by his second full season in the league, he became a bust.

 

This draft produced a grand total of 3 starters: Whitner, Butler, and Williams. Butler and Williams are serviceable, but not good starters. If you're counting Ellison as a starter, I'm going to The reality is this draft did not set a foundation it was intended to set.

[bills44]

Pretty fair analysis by the OP, IMO. I think that most, if not all, of my grades would be within one grade level (+/-).

 

Whitner: Despite his troubles in the second half of 2008, Whitner has been the best and most versatile player on the Bills D for nearly three years. He did the near impossible in 2007 by playing nearly every defensive down, for much of the season, and filling in at several different positions. The lack of a pass rush, and the way the coaches utilize him in the defense doesn't allow for him to make the kind of impact that some elite SS make. (Of course, part of that conservative approach by the coaches was likely due to injuries). Not yet elite, but is recognized as one of the better SS in the league: B+

Dean, didn't Whitner miss a game in 2007?

[billsfan714]

Thank god we didnt get Ngata and Marcus McNeil, man those are some pitiful stats on Whitner for 3 years and well what can you say about McCargo.

[marauderswr80]

Butler & Williams are decent picks for that draft. Williams I think has come a long ways. He's got better with Stroud next to him. Whitner, I dont know what to say about him.....Ellison has filled in ok. Overall we had our chances to be better.....

[Dawgg]

McCargo: Showed flashed, but was injured too often. Hard to flunk a pick because of injuries, but can't give him a good grade based on the little he played. I'm going to guess that, based on what we did see, he would have graded out to a C or C-, if healthy: D

 

Based on injuries???

 

How about the fact that he showed up to camp fat and out of shape and was fined by his coaches? The fact that the scouting staff failed to see this lack of motivation and spent a first-round pick on him should get them fired.

 

How about the fact that he played on a line with two superior players, thereby inflating his value? The vast majority of NFL teams had a second-round grade on him. Only the Bills were gullible enough to not only trade up, but to waste a first-round pick on him.

 

The "flashes" you refer to were a single defensive series against Denver. As AKC has pointed out, that was a stroke of luck. He abandoned his gaps and the play just came to him.

 

McCargo sucks, was a complete bust... and the fact that you grade this pick with anything better than an F is indicative of your lack of objectivity.

[The Dean]

Pretty fair analysis by the OP, IMO. I think that most, if not all, of my grades would be within one grade level (+/-).

 

 

Dean, didn't Whitner miss a game in 2007?

 

 

The last game of the year. That's why my comment said "for much of the season"

[KD in CA]

The point with Whitner is that someone taken at #8 should be a playmaker by himself, not dependent on having above average players all around him.

 

Top 10 picks need to be bona fide, impact playmakers.

 

 

God I hate this stupid argument. Football is a TEAM game.

[BillsVet]

God I hate this stupid argument. Football is a TEAM game.

 

It's a subjective argument, therefore it elicits a differing opinions. When you look at guys like Adrian Wilson, they're impact players without having all the supporting elements.

 

I will admit players like Polamalu and Bob Sanders are better, both in reality and statistically, because they've got the supporting cast. But when you draft a player eighth overall, you're looking for someone who doesn't need everything around them to be successful. A fine player makes players around them better. And that's more difficult to do from the secondary than it is from the defensive line.

 

Whitner is not spectacular. He's not a liability either, but falls somewhere in the middle of the pack. And when you're the eighth overall pick, being pushed over to FS after your third season doesn't qualify as being a standout.

[billsfan714]

It's a subjective argument, therefore it elicits a differing opinions. When you look at guys like Adrian Wilson, they're impact players without having all the supporting elements.

 

I will admit players like Polamalu and Bob Sanders are better, both in reality and statistically, because they've got the supporting cast. But when you draft a player eighth overall, you're looking for someone who doesn't need everything around them to be successful. A fine player makes players around them better. And that's more difficult to do from the secondary than it is from the defensive line.

 

Whitner is not spectacular. He's not a liability either, but falls somewhere in the middle of the pack. And when you're the eighth overall pick, being pushed over to FS after your third season doesn't qualify as being a standout.

 

 

Totally agree. Those career stats, except for tackles, look like Ed Reeds or Polamalus would be in about 4 games. A safety in the 8th spot should be a stud, not adequate. Ed Reed and Polamalu make players around them better. I dont think you can say that about Whitner.