Bills vs. Jets

[silvermike]

So, had Turk/Dick/JP not totally botched the end of the Bills-Jets game, we'd both have finished with matching 8-8 records. I was thinking about how that could be possible, since they really seem to be a better team than we are. It's not strength of schedule; in common games, we went 6-6 and they ended up 5-7.

 

Now, obviously, they had much better play at the QB position on the season, so where did we make up the gap? I'd say RBs may be slightly in our favor on offense, but WRs are a wash at best, and their line is better. On defense, they seem to have a definite edge. It can't be coaching!

 

Does this mean that we were really not the victims of bad luck, but rather an especially lucky team, that really deserved to go 5-11? Or are the Jets a really unlucky 9-7?

[Erik]

So, had Turk/Dick/JP not totally botched the end of the Bills-Jets game, we'd both have finished with matching 8-8 records. I was thinking about how that could be possible, since they really seem to be a better team than we are. It's not strength of schedule; in common games, we went 6-6 and they ended up 5-7.

 

Now, obviously, they had much better play at the QB position on the season, so where did we make up the gap? I'd say RBs may be slightly in our favor on offense, but WRs are a wash at best, and their line is better. On defense, they seem to have a definite edge. It can't be coaching!

 

Does this mean that we were really not the victims of bad luck, but rather an especially lucky team, that really deserved to go 5-11? Or are the Jets a really unlucky 9-7?

 

The coaching is about the same. Mangini is horrible.

[BuffOrange]

So, had Turk/Dick/JP not totally botched the end of the Bills-Jets game, we'd both have finished with matching 8-8 records. I was thinking about how that could be possible, since they really seem to be a better team than we are. It's not strength of schedule; in common games, we went 6-6 and they ended up 5-7.

 

Now, obviously, they had much better play at the QB position on the season, so where did we make up the gap? I'd say RBs may be slightly in our favor on offense, but WRs are a wash at best, and their line is better. On defense, they seem to have a definite edge. It can't be coaching!

 

Does this mean that we were really not the victims of bad luck, but rather an especially lucky team, that really deserved to go 5-11? Or are the Jets a really unlucky 9-7?

 

According to Football Outsiders, we both finished about where we should've finished. You're probably overestimating the gap in QB play.

[silvermike]

You're probably overestimating the gap in QB play.

 

Yeah, maybe I am. Back to FO, Edwards actually has a better per-play score than Favre, although overall, Edwards+Losman is less than Favre - Losman is a severe negative. So call that the difference, and a full season of Edwards would have likely made this all a wash.