How Special was the 4-0 Start?

[The Big Cat]

I say it wasn't special, that just because we won four in a row, doesn't amount to a hill of beans. It sucks that the wins were the FIRST four games, and just like our perception of the Jets disaster is somewhat thwarted by the sheer FLUKE of the fumble/TD, I think we need to take a realistic look at how the season unfolded, rather than piss and moan because we thought that a 4-0 start equaled playoff certainty. Someone started a thread a week or so ago about teams who start hot then miss the playoffs, and it's really not all that uncommon folks, at least not in recent history.

 

Week 4 power rankings be damned, the facts are now officially in. We began the season facing opponents with combined records (through week 16) of 15-45 (.250). Yeah, we beat them up pretty good and it's always nice to string 4 wins together in the NFL, but do 4 consecutive wins a playoff bid make? Lest we forget we had a four game winning streak last year too. Well, just for kicks, I wanted to see how 'streaky' the rest of the AFC contenders had been this year and how their best streaks compared to ours- I'll let y'all be the judge:

 

(The records and win percentages are those of the opponents during the longest winning streaks of each respective team)

 

Tennessee: 10 66-83-1 (.440)

Pittsburgh: 5 39-35-1 (.520)

Miami: 4 (x2) 23-37 (.383) / 17- 43 (.283) / 40-80 (.333)

Indianapolis: 8* 47-73 (.391)

Baltimore: 4 25-35 (.416)

New England: 3* 15-30 (.333)

NYJ: 5 34-41 (.453)

San Diego: 3* 15-30 (.333)

 

* Streak could continue after week 17

[Dennis in NC]

I remember thinking during/after those games "wow, the Raiders aren't that bad" after it took a 4th Q comeback to beat them.

 

Then the same thing happened against the Rams. The weak opponent looked pretty good against the Bills. Of course, both of those head coaches got canned right after the Bills beat them. Hmmm....

 

Well, the Seahawks, Raiders, Rams et al really ARE THAT BAD! I guess that is hard to see after just 4 games.

 

Now we know how bad our team really is.

 

Merry Christmas, Bills fans! You too, Ralph!

[Jim in Anchorage]

I remember thinking during/after those games "wow, the Raiders aren't that bad" after it took a 4th Q comeback to beat them.

 

Then the same thing happened against the Rams. The weak opponent looked pretty good against the Bills. Of course, both of those head coaches got canned right after the Bills beat them. Hmmm....

 

Well, the Seahawks, Raiders, Rams et al really ARE THAT BAD! I guess that is hard to see after just 4 games.

 

Now we know how bad our team really is.

 

Merry Christmas, Bills fans! You too, Ralph!

[Thurman#1]

Very interesting look at the stats on other teams winning streaks.

 

I don't think it was very special, looking back. At the time, we hadn't yet seen how good the teams would be, and Seattle looked like they might be pretty good. So it looked very good indeed. JP was blamed for the loss to the Cardinals, but they were the only good team we played, and we wouldn't have come close to them with Trent either.

 

It's a continuation of the last few years. We beat the bad teams, split with the mediocre ones and lose to the good ones. I think Denver is mediocre this year, so it looks like the only difference from the last few years is that we lost to two genuinely bad teams, Cleveland and SF, which we would have beaten in 2006 or 2007.

 

We're young, and might have a good future. But the present just doesn't look too good.

[cowtippur]

At least the Seahawks were only down one WR at the time we played them. They did have a Super Bowl QB and the rest of the team. The Raiders are streaky, you never know how they will play. They can be good, they can be terrible. The Rams, they are bad. Maybe we should be happy though, that we didn't play the Lions. What's worse, being an 0-16 team or being the one team that a 1-15 team can beat? Of course, by record alone, 0-16 is worse, but from a fan's perspective?

[DrFishfinder]

Very interesting look at the stats on other teams winning streaks.

 

I don't think it was very special, looking back. At the time, we hadn't yet seen how good the teams would be, and Seattle looked like they might be pretty good. So it looked very good indeed. JP was blamed for the loss to the Cardinals, but they were the only good team we played, and we wouldn't have come close to them with Trent either.

 

It's a continuation of the last few years. We beat the bad teams, split with the mediocre ones and lose to the good ones. I think Denver is mediocre this year, so it looks like the only difference from the last few years is that we lost to two genuinely bad teams, Cleveland and SF, which we would have beaten in 2006 or 2007.

 

We're young, and might have a good future. But the present just doesn't look too good.

Can't say it much better than that! (not sure I would lump SF in the "bad" category, though).

[The Big Cat]

Can't say it much better than that! (not sure I would lump SF in the "bad" category, though).

 

I would.

 

Don't forget about Cleveland.

 

If fans want to be pissed about anything regarding the 2008 season, it should be the SF and Cleveland losses. We would be 9-6 right now. Eliminate the fourth quarter melt downs against NYJ and the first Miami game (games that were in the bag but had the tides turned by STUPID, practically unforced errors) and we're 11-4.

 

What's interesting about this year is how cakey the non-division games were, and how competitive the division was. The two basically offset eachother if you consider that a SD win means 9 of our opponents had records of .500 or better.

[ganesh]

The NFL is all about running with your chances....The Bills had it going for them with that 4-0/5-1 start....If they had won their games against Cleveland, SF and the Fricking Jets, we would be in the hunt for the playoffs going into the last game of the season....The NFL is a pretty balanced league and the teams that take advantage go to the playoffs.

[The Big Cat]

The NFL is all about running with your chances....The Bills had it going for them with that 4-0/5-1 start....If they had won their games against Cleveland, SF and the Fricking Jets, we would be in the hunt for the playoffs going into the last game of the season....The NFL is a pretty balanced league and the teams that take advantage go to the playoffs.

 

It's an incredibly balanced league. I was surprised to see that just about all the streaks that even the contenders were able to put together came against weaker teams. You beat the teams you're supposed to beat. You split with the ones as good as you, and you hope to steal an upset or two. That's the formula for making the playoffs, it seems.

[My Friends Call Me Tebucky]

I think it gets a little blown out of proportion because it was the first 4 weeks, against poor teams.

 

Houston has 2 seperate winning streaks this year of 4 games, and 3 games. They had a 4-0 stretch too, and they're sitting in the exact same spot in the standings.

[The Big Cat]

I think it gets a little blown out of proportion because it was the first 4 weeks, against poor teams.

 

Houston has 2 seperate winning streaks this year of 4 games, and 3 games. They had a 4-0 stretch too, and they're sitting in the exact same spot in the standings.

 

Thanks for saving me the time to look that up!

 

I was going to supplement this conversation by looking at teams with similar records as ours!

 

Notice we haven't even MENTIONED an NFC team here...

[billnutinphoenix]

It all came to a crashing halt in the Arizona game...(even though we have won 2 games since)

[zow2]

Every year it's the same thing in the NFL.. the teams that win the majority of their games in Nov and Dec usually make the playoffs. The Bills stunk in Nov and Dec.

[Chalkie Gerzowski]

LULZ

 

4-0 in 88, yeah that was quite good.

 

4-0 in 08...to be mocked forever

 

[DrFishfinder]

I would.

 

Don't forget about Cleveland.

 

If fans want to be pissed about anything regarding the 2008 season, it should be the SF and Cleveland losses. We would be 9-6 right now. Eliminate the fourth quarter melt downs against NYJ and the first Miami game (games that were in the bag but had the tides turned by STUPID, practically unforced errors) and we're 11-4.

 

What's interesting about this year is how cakey the non-division games were, and how competitive the division was. The two basically offset eachother if you consider that a SD win means 9 of our opponents had records of .500 or better.

The Cleveland game was one the Bills should have won, without a doubt. That was the only decent game that Quinn had and he made Fewell's pass defense look like it was frozen. Not to mention Lindell and those 2 most hated words in Bills history. But in fairness, Singletary has SF playng better and more motivated. Jauron would do well to heed the "motivated" part, but he won't, or can't....same result.

 

The meltdowns and stupid penalties and boneheaded play calling were Buffalo's most notable traits this year, in no particular order. This team has continued a legacy of blowing winnable games. Periodically, they will pull off an upset (Denver) and give us all a false sense of hope that the coaching staff and team has turned things around, when in fact, they haven't. This team has won in spite of Jauron, not because of him, regardless of what the players say.

 

The first My Yami game started the tailspin and the season imploded from that point on.

[The Big Cat]

The Cleveland game was one the Bills should have won, without a doubt. That was the only decent game that Quinn had and he made Fewell's pass defense look like it was frozen. Not to mention Lindell and those 2 most hated words in Bills history. But in fairness, Singletary has SF playng better and more motivated. Jauron would do well to heed the "motivated" part, but he won't, or can't....same result.

 

The meltdowns and stupid penalties and boneheaded play calling were Buffalo's most notable traits this year, in no particular order. This team has continued a legacy of blowing winnable games. Periodically, they will pull off an upset (Denver) and give us all a false sense of hope that the coaching staff and team has turned things around, when in fact, they haven't. This team has won in spite of Jauron, not because of him, regardless of what the players say.

 

The first My Yami game started the tailspin and the season imploded from that point on.

 

I think you'd be hard pressed to cite an instance of "stupid penalties" that have been game-changers. Mistakes, yes- but mistakes in the form of turnovers and the occasional dropped pass/missed assignment.

 

Furthermore, let's think for a second if Lindel hadn't botched the first two FG's against SF. Suddenly we're not going for it on 4th down inside the redzone, and we've got 9 extra points in a game decided by only 7.

 

Like it or not, for all the blame you want to pin on Jauron, players have to be accountable too. Lindel turned two very short FG attempts (20y/40y) into two HUGE mistakes. We can pontificate all day long about what MIGHT have happened if we handed it to Lynch more often, or if Edwards had the sack to throw one deep, or if we brought the blitz harder and more often. But to me, points are points. We missed out on 6 gimmies, and it informed a decision later in the game that would have given us 3 more.

 

We should have beaten SF. You COULD blame Jauron, but in doing so you're ignoring the game changing impact of a PLAYER's mistakes.

[DrFishfinder]

I think you'd be hard pressed to cite an instance of "stupid penalties" that have been game-changers. Mistakes, yes- but mistakes in the form of turnovers and the occasional dropped pass/missed assignment.

 

Furthermore, let's think for a second if Lindel hadn't botched the first two FG's against SF. Suddenly we're not going for it on 4th down inside the redzone, and we've got 9 extra points in a game decided by only 7.

 

Like it or not, for all the blame you want to pin on Jauron, players have to be accountable too. Lindel turned two very short FG attempts (20y/40y) into two HUGE mistakes. We can pontificate all day long about what MIGHT have happened if we handed it to Lynch more often, or if Edwards had the sack to throw one deep, or if we brought the blitz harder and more often. But to me, points are points. We missed out on 6 gimmies, and it informed a decision later in the game that would have given us 3 more.

 

We should have beaten SF. You COULD blame Jauron, but in doing so you're ignoring the game changing impact of a PLAYER's mistakes.

You're right, I cannot cite penalties that have been game changers. But a lot, if not most of them, have been drive killers, which in turn, can become game changers. But I don't go over game film so I speak more from game impressions than play by play.

 

No doubt that players are accountable. To paraphrase Ralph, "Jauron doesn't run, catch or throw". I don't pin all the problems on Jauron. Players should be making plays. Lindell missed crucial, makeable field goals and that falls squarely on Lindell. Stupid penalties are on the players. But when this team started its nose dive, it became Jauron's responsibility to pull them out of it. If not him, then who? Jauron's record speaks for itself.

 

Maybe, just maybe, if the Bills had a coach with a different demeanor and some sort of motivational apptitude, the team would have found ways to win 8 out of the last 9 games - like Miami. Look at their turnaround. I firmly believe in the trickle-down effect here. I think motivated (and well coached) players, play harder, smarter and better. I think that with a few tweaks in the lineup, and the right head coach, this team would be in the playoffs with a chance of making the AFC Chanpionship game.

[The Big Cat]

You're right, I cannot cite penalties that have been game changers. But a lot, if not most of them, have been drive killers, which in turn, can become game changers. But I don't go over game film so I speak more from game impressions than play by play.

 

No doubt that players are accountable. To paraphrase Ralph, "Jauron doesn't run, catch or throw". I don't pin all the problems on Jauron. Players should be making plays. Lindell missed crucial, makeable field goals and that falls squarely on Lindell. Stupid penalties are on the players. But when this team started its nose dive, it became Jauron's responsibility to pull them out of it. If not him, then who? Jauron's record speaks for itself.

 

Maybe, just maybe, if the Bills had a coach with a different demeanor and some sort of motivational apptitude, the team would have found ways to win 8 out of the last 9 games - like Miami. Look at their turnaround. I firmly believe in the trickle-down effect here. I think motivated (and well coached) players, play harder, smarter and better. I think that with a few tweaks in the lineup, and the right head coach, this team would be in the playoffs with a chance of making the AFC Chanpionship game.

 

Well, again, you're imagining what the world WOULD be like if Jauron was a different kind of guy- if he was a bit more intense, up in your face, and passionate. From where I sit, that kind of rah-rah-sis-boom-bah works best for the defense- a unit that thrives on aggression and plays on instinct. Problem is, the defense isn't the problem.

 

Our BIGGEST problem is Trent Edwards. He has some kinks to work out and in the second half of the season DC's figured out how to shut him down. He is NOT the total package. As the QUARTERBACK, he's the one player whose performance can be a weekly game changer, and since he has some glaring soft spots in his repertoire, the entire team will struggle until he figures it out.

[Paup 1995MVP]

I think you'd be hard pressed to cite an instance of "stupid penalties" that have been game-changers. Mistakes, yes- but mistakes in the form of turnovers and the occasional dropped pass/missed assignment.

 

Furthermore, let's think for a second if Lindel hadn't botched the first two FG's against SF. Suddenly we're not going for it on 4th down inside the redzone, and we've got 9 extra points in a game decided by only 7.

 

Like it or not, for all the blame you want to pin on Jauron, players have to be accountable too. Lindel turned two very short FG attempts (20y/40y) into two HUGE mistakes. We can pontificate all day long about what MIGHT have happened if we handed it to Lynch more often, or if Edwards had the sack to throw one deep, or if we brought the blitz harder and more often. But to me, points are points. We missed out on 6 gimmies, and it informed a decision later in the game that would have given us 3 more.

 

We should have beaten SF. You COULD blame Jauron, but in doing so you're ignoring the game changing impact of a PLAYER's mistakes.

Blaming Lindell for either of those losses is ridiculous. We should have blown the Browns out at home. Our QB imploded early and than did not have the moxie or fortitude to get his head together and make plays after the dreadful first quarter. Against SF, we did not covert in the red zone when we had numerous opportunities. The play calling was suspect, and of course we did not execute like we should have.

 

Also, you have to look at 0-5 in the division. Probably to be 0-6 come Sunday at 4pm. That says we just are not good enough. Sure our coaching has been suspect at times. But I look at our lack of talent at certain positions as much more glaring. Overall, our QB play combining TE and JP has been mediocre at best. We have no threat to speak of at Tight end. The interior of our O line is very inconsistent. Even worse is our front seven. That is our biggest liability. Stroud is good, but definitely not dominant. Mitchell can be great at times, at other times he looks slow. But from there it is all downhill. Even when Schobel is healthy, he is inconsistent. The rest of our front seven basically is below avg. to sucky. They just are not athletic, simple as that. And our safeties CAN NOT COVER!!! Our biggest advantage is our return game, and coverage units. We almost always win the field position battle thanks to Leodis, Roscoe and Fred.

 

For next season pray that TE keeps getting better, and finds the confidence bordering on cockiness. Get a tight end that can run, and please please get some pass rushers and linebackers who can make plays. It is not impossible to turn things around, but there are some glaring weaknesses that need shoring up. With the lack of talent on defense, 7-8 is right about where this team belongs.

[The Big Cat]

Blaming Lindell for either of those losses is ridiculous. We should have blown the Browns out at home. Our QB imploded early and than did not have the moxie or fortitude to get his head together and make plays after the dreadful first quarter. Against SF, we did not covert in the red zone when we had numerous opportunities. The play calling was suspect, and of course we did not execute like we should have.

 

Also, you have to look at 0-5 in the division. Probably to be 0-6 come Sunday at 4pm. That says we just are not good enough. Sure our coaching has been suspect at times. But I look at our lack of talent at certain positions as much more glaring. Overall, our QB play combining TE and JP has been mediocre at best. We have no threat to speak of at Tight end. The interior of our O line is very inconsistent. Even worse is our front seven. That is our biggest liability. Stroud is good, but definitely not dominant. Mitchell can be great at times, at other times he looks slow. But from there it is all downhill. Even when Schobel is healthy, he is inconsistent. The rest of our front seven basically is below avg. to sucky. They just are not athletic, simple as that. And our safeties CAN NOT COVER!!! Our biggest advantage is our return game, and coverage units. We almost always win the field position battle thanks to Leodis, Roscoe and Fred.

 

For next season pray that TE keeps getting better, and finds the confidence bordering on cockiness. Get a tight end that can run, and please please get some pass rushers and linebackers who can make plays. It is not impossible to turn things around, but there are some glaring weaknesses that need shoring up. With the lack of talent on defense, 7-8 is right about where this team belongs.

 

I'm not blaming Lindel for the Cleveland loss. That WOULD be ridiculous. Trent threw three picks in the first quarter. I'm not an idiot.

 

My point was that when playing the coulda-woulda-shoulda game, Lindel CAN be blamed for the SF loss. His two chip-shot misses changed the scope of the game, like it or not.

 

As for Trent, at this point I would rather bring in one of the savvy veterans who are supposedly up for grabs this offseason (McNabb, Warner, Hasselbeck). If he can't figure it out, then at least we have an insurance policy and somebody to push him a bit, may be show him how to see the field more than 8 yards beyond the LOS.