Bills' Drafting History

[silvermike]

Okay, I've gone back over the drafts from the post-playoff era, and broken our first day draft picks down into three categories:

 

1.) Successes. Not much explanation needed. (S)

2.) Priorities failure. The Bills drafted a guy whose position and talents did not match the team's needs. (PF)

3.) Scouting failure. The Bills drafted a guy who wasn't the best available player on the board at his position. Player is compared to the next picked player at his position. (SF)

 

I know comparing players only to the next drafted is simple, but I don't have a ton of time now; I'll refine this later.

Let me know what you think about these evaluations:

 

2001:

1st round:

Nate Clements. Anticipated departure of Antoine Winfield and the inadequacy of Kenny Irvin. S.

2nd round:

Aaron Schobel. Maybe not a superstar, but a reliable choice in the 2nd. S.

Travis Henry. Sammy Morris has proven worthwhile in his later career, but this seemed to be a clear need. And a very good pick. S.

3rd round:

Ron Edwards. Bills were scary thin up the middle, but Edwards was a marginal pro most of his career. However, the next three DTs off the board were Kenny Smith, Marcus Blade, and Willie Bell. I'd take Edwards in that lot. S.

Jonas Jennings. Solid LT, late in the draft for one. Ryan Diem was one of the next three T's drafted, but the next one was Kenyatta Jones, who is worse. S.

 

Whitey started off so strong - 5/5.

 

2002:

1st round:

Mike Williams. Uberbust. However, it's undeniable we needed a great tackle. There is the LT/RT issue, but I'm sure that if he was really a top-5 talent, we'd either be thrilled to have him at RT or would have been able to move him to LT. SF.

2nd round:

Josh Reed. With Price on the way out, we needed another receiver, and Reed was a great prospect. He's been a marginal pro, but better than Tim Carter,the next WR taken. S

Ryan Denney. Role player at best, this seems like a bust. But again - at least DE was a clear need (the Bills had started Schobel across from a retiring Phil Hansen). And the next few DEs were total crap - Denney's career has at least exceeded Will Overstreet, though injuries may give him a pass, so we'll go on to Dennis Johnson, next on the board, who has been awful and bouced out of the league. I'm starting to question my system here, but this is an S.

3rd round:

Coy Wire. Was Strong Safety a need here ? The team had been starting Raion Hill, in his only few pro football games. Can't fault them for trying, but you certainly can fault them for getting nothing more than a special teams player. Nothing special on the board, but if you're picking betweeen crap and crap, pick another position, it's not like this team didn't have plenty of needs. SF.

 

down to 2/4, and those aren't a great 2.

 

2003:

1st round: Willis McGahee. Huge priority failure, and he has clearly been outmatched by Larry Johnson, next RB gone. SF AND PF.

2nd round: Chris Kelsay. Definitely needed a DE, as Denney was not establishing himself too well, so you can't fault the priorities. Next DE taken? Osi Umenyora. SF.

3rd round: Angelo Crowell. Can't complain - the LBs needed someone and he's performed well. THis is a hit. S

 

so, 1/3, including a double-fail.

 

2004:

1st round:

Lee Evans. No complaints in any way. S.

JP Losman. Ow, my brains. Can't complain about the fact we needed a QB, but the next one up was Schaub. SF.

3rd round:

Tim Anderson. Can't complain about choosing a DT, just this bum? Isaac Sopoaga was next. SF.

 

1/3

 

2005:

2nd round:

Roscoe Parrish. Priority failure clearly, with Evans and Moulds holding down the fort, but the next guy wasn't anything better. PF.

3rd round:

Kevin Everett. Not going to grade this one.

 

0/1, bringing our total for TD up to 9/16, though a more unimpressive 4/9 after a brilliant '01 draft.

 

2006:

1st round:

Donte Whitner. Obvious and painful priority failure (what's so wrong with Lawyer Milloy?) though he is better than Jason Allen, I think. PF.

John McCargo. Right idea, wrong execution. Total washout, and though Claude Wroten is nothing special, he's still playing football. SF.

3rd round:

Ashton Youboty. Needed a CB with Nate threatening to leave, and the replacement was clearly worse here. Still some promise, so I'll say this is an S.

 

1/3 under Marv's first season.

 

2007:

1st round:

Marshawn Lynch. Great pick: S

2nd round:

Paul Posluszny: Solid pick, anyway, but I gotta say that our trading up for him - rather than 'settling' for David Harris, shows that we really scout well here. SF.

3rd round:

Trent Edwards: Needed a QB pretty badly, as we can tell now. And plus, he's had his ups and downs, but would you really rather have Isaiah Stanbeck?

 

2/3

So we're running .500 with Marv, 3/6.

 

I think it's too early to judge Brandonball, but I will say that each of our picks hit a priority. Whether they did it well, well, we'll see.

 

But I think the thing here isn't that the Bills often whiff terribly - from '01 to '07, they were 12/22, which is at least above 50-50. The problem is that so few of those hits earn extra-bases. We draft narrow not-busts rather than dynamite stars.

[BuffaloBill]

Okay, I've gone back over the drafts from the post-playoff era, and broken our first day draft picks down into three categories:

 

1.) Successes. Not much explanation needed. (S)

2.) Priorities failure. The Bills drafted a guy whose position and talents did not match the team's needs. (PF)

3.) Scouting failure. The Bills drafted a guy who wasn't the best available player on the board at his position. Player is compared to the next picked player at his position. (SF)

 

I know comparing players only to the next drafted is simple, but I don't have a ton of time now; I'll refine this later.

Let me know what you think about these evaluations:

 

2001:

1st round:

Nate Clements. Anticipated departure of Antoine Winfield and the inadequacy of Kenny Irvin. S.

2nd round:

Aaron Schobel. Maybe not a superstar, but a reliable choice in the 2nd. S.

Travis Henry. Sammy Morris has proven worthwhile in his later career, but this seemed to be a clear need. And a very good pick. S.

3rd round:

Ron Edwards. Bills were scary thin up the middle, but Edwards was a marginal pro most of his career. However, the next three DTs off the board were Kenny Smith, Marcus Blade, and Willie Bell. I'd take Edwards in that lot. S.

Jonas Jennings. Solid LT, late in the draft for one. Ryan Diem was one of the next three T's drafted, but the next one was Kenyatta Jones, who is worse. S.

 

Whitey started off so strong - 5/5.

 

2002:

1st round:

Mike Williams. Uberbust. However, it's undeniable we needed a great tackle. There is the LT/RT issue, but I'm sure that if he was really a top-5 talent, we'd either be thrilled to have him at RT or would have been able to move him to LT. SF.

2nd round:

Josh Reed. With Price on the way out, we needed another receiver, and Reed was a great prospect. He's been a marginal pro, but better than Tim Carter,the next WR taken. S

Ryan Denney. Role player at best, this seems like a bust. But again - at least DE was a clear need (the Bills had started Schobel across from a retiring Phil Hansen). And the next few DEs were total crap - Denney's career has at least exceeded Will Overstreet, though injuries may give him a pass, so we'll go on to Dennis Johnson, next on the board, who has been awful and bouced out of the league. I'm starting to question my system here, but this is an S.

3rd round:

Coy Wire. Was Strong Safety a need here ? The team had been starting Raion Hill, in his only few pro football games. Can't fault them for trying, but you certainly can fault them for getting nothing more than a special teams player. Nothing special on the board, but if you're picking betweeen crap and crap, pick another position, it's not like this team didn't have plenty of needs. SF.

 

down to 2/4, and those aren't a great 2.

 

2003:

1st round: Willis McGahee. Huge priority failure, and he has clearly been outmatched by Larry Johnson, next RB gone. SF AND PF.

2nd round: Chris Kelsay. Definitely needed a DE, as Denney was not establishing himself too well, so you can't fault the priorities. Next DE taken? Osi Umenyora. SF.

3rd round: Angelo Crowell. Can't complain - the LBs needed someone and he's performed well. THis is a hit. S

 

so, 1/3, including a double-fail.

 

2004:

1st round:

Lee Evans. No complaints in any way. S.

JP Losman. Ow, my brains. Can't complain about the fact we needed a QB, but the next one up was Schaub. SF.

3rd round:

Tim Anderson. Can't complain about choosing a DT, just this bum? Isaac Sopoaga was next. SF.

 

1/3

 

2005:

2nd round:

Roscoe Parrish. Priority failure clearly, with Evans and Moulds holding down the fort, but the next guy wasn't anything better. PF.

3rd round:

Kevin Everett. Not going to grade this one.

 

0/1, bringing our total for TD up to 9/16, though a more unimpressive 4/9 after a brilliant '01 draft.

 

2006:

1st round:

Donte Whitner. Obvious and painful priority failure (what's so wrong with Lawyer Milloy?) though he is better than Jason Allen, I think. PF.

John McCargo. Right idea, wrong execution. Total washout, and though Claude Wroten is nothing special, he's still playing football. SF.

3rd round:

Ashton Youboty. Needed a CB with Nate threatening to leave, and the replacement was clearly worse here. Still some promise, so I'll say this is an S.

 

1/3 under Marv's first season.

 

2007:

1st round:

Marshawn Lynch. Great pick: S

2nd round:

Paul Posluszny: Solid pick, anyway, but I gotta say that our trading up for him - rather than 'settling' for David Harris, shows that we really scout well here. SF.

3rd round:

Trent Edwards: Needed a QB pretty badly, as we can tell now. And plus, he's had his ups and downs, but would you really rather have Isaiah Stanbeck?

 

2/3

So we're running .500 with Marv, 3/6.

 

I think it's too early to judge Brandonball, but I will say that each of our picks hit a priority. Whether they did it well, well, we'll see.

 

But I think the thing here isn't that the Bills often whiff terribly - from '01 to '07, they were 12/22, which is at least above 50-50. The problem is that so few of those hits earn extra-bases. We draft narrow not-busts rather than dynamite stars.

 

 

I am not going to pick apart your analysus but 12 for 22 is very pedestrian. There are no superstars among any of these picks - no dangerous playmakers. For this reason your 12 of 22 number looks even worse.

[drinkTHEkoolaid]

the bills have made one bad decision after another...

 

[Big Turk]

The best GMs in the league hit about 50% of their picks....IMHO, Bills have done pretty decent job in drafting, the problem is in the coaching and use of these players, not the actual players themselves...

[billsfan714]

The JP Losman pick sets us back for years. The 2nd round pick we traded could of been Bob Sanders S Colts and the 2005 first round pick we traded for JP, Dallas turned into Demarcus Ware. Think of that trade now and you cry.

[silvermike]

The Cowboys used our pick on Spears, not Ware, who went with their own pick at #11. However, we could have drafted Aaron Rodgers if we stayed there, and gave Bledsoe one more season instead of giving up the farm to move up. But yeah, Sanders would have been there, and since we grabbed DT Anderson in the 3rd,w e might have grabbed DT Tank Johnson in thes econd.

[Tcali]

The best GMs in the league hit about 50% of their picks....IMHO, Bills have done pretty decent job in drafting, the problem is in the coaching and use of these players, not the actual players themselves...

The prob ..as has often been discussed--is that we miss on our linemen . Teams are built around lines .

[billsfan714]

Your right.... doesnt make it any better. Rodgers and Sanders for JP is just as bad. I think the average Bills fan with a few scouting mags could do as well as the Bills. 2003 we could of had Jason Witten in the 2nd round, a need for the Bills. Dallas got em in the third. Another DE we passed on over for Kelsay was Dwyane White. I hope the Bills learn not to trade up, Id rather have more picks not less.

[drinkTHEkoolaid]

in all honesty, the bills should just throw a bunch of names in a hat and pick one. they would have a better chance at success by complete random chance than by using whatever worthless "strategy" they use now..

 

[billsfan714]

I love thinking that we traded UP to get Losman and McCargo. Theres some brilliant front office work there.

[silvermike]

It seems that the biggest problem under Marv was drawing up a list of needs, then going down and taking the best available player at each need. I can't say there was a much better safety on the board when we picked Whitner, and McCargo was distinctly the best available DT at that point - even if he hasn't lived up to his projections, he was the top choice at the time. I don't think there was a better DT that anyone would have taken in that spot.

 

You keep going forward - Youboty was the best available CB; Lynch at RB, Puz at least a wash at LB with Harris (may be a little generous), Edwards of course at QB, McKelvin at CB, Hardy at WR - even Chris Ellis, though I'm less certain of that. But the team seems to have no ability to differentiate between talent at different positions: just because we need a SS more than a DT (arguable to say the least, but even let's grant it's true), a reliable SS is never going to be worth more than a gamechanging DT.

 

It's like Jauron was drafting, called the scouts and said "who's the best available tackle? Okay, take him". And so on. Rather than assessing relative needs. And the trades-up were never worth it.

[SDS]

It seems that the biggest problem under Marv was drawing up a list of needs, then going down and taking the best available player at each need. I can't say there was a much better safety on the board when we picked Whitner, and McCargo was distinctly the best available DT at that point - even if he hasn't lived up to his projections, he was the top choice at the time. I don't think there was a better DT that anyone would have taken in that spot.

 

You keep going forward - Youboty was the best available CB; Lynch at RB, Puz at least a wash at LB with Harris (may be a little generous), Edwards of course at QB, McKelvin at CB, Hardy at WR - even Chris Ellis, though I'm less certain of that. But the team seems to have no ability to differentiate between talent at different positions: just because we need a SS more than a DT (arguable to say the least, but even let's grant it's true), a reliable SS is never going to be worth more than a gamechanging DT.

 

It's like Jauron was drafting, called the scouts and said "who's the best available tackle? Okay, take him". And so on. Rather than assessing relative needs. And the trades-up were never worth it.

 

This team is not good enough to draft for "need". In fact, drafting for need may be one of the worst things you can do. You need great football players. And if you happen to have more than one great football player at a position, then that is not a weakness - it is a strength. Injuries happen, contracts expire... crap happens. Just get great football players.

[lacoy38]

Okay, I've gone back over the drafts from the post-playoff era, and broken our first day draft picks down into three categories:

 

1.) Successes. Not much explanation needed. (S)

2.) Priorities failure. The Bills drafted a guy whose position and talents did not match the team's needs. (PF)

3.) Scouting failure. The Bills drafted a guy who wasn't the best available player on the board at his position. Player is compared to the next picked player at his position. (SF)

 

I know comparing players only to the next drafted is simple, but I don't have a ton of time now; I'll refine this later.

Let me know what you think about these evaluations:

 

2001:

1st round:

Nate Clements. Anticipated departure of Antoine Winfield and the inadequacy of Kenny Irvin. S.

2nd round:

Aaron Schobel. Maybe not a superstar, but a reliable choice in the 2nd. S.

Travis Henry. Sammy Morris has proven worthwhile in his later career, but this seemed to be a clear need. And a very good pick. S.

3rd round:

Ron Edwards. Bills were scary thin up the middle, but Edwards was a marginal pro most of his career. However, the next three DTs off the board were Kenny Smith, Marcus Blade, and Willie Bell. I'd take Edwards in that lot. S.

Jonas Jennings. Solid LT, late in the draft for one. Ryan Diem was one of the next three T's drafted, but the next one was Kenyatta Jones, who is worse. S.

 

Whitey started off so strong - 5/5.

 

2002:

1st round:

Mike Williams. Uberbust. However, it's undeniable we needed a great tackle. There is the LT/RT issue, but I'm sure that if he was really a top-5 talent, we'd either be thrilled to have him at RT or would have been able to move him to LT. SF.

2nd round:

Josh Reed. With Price on the way out, we needed another receiver, and Reed was a great prospect. He's been a marginal pro, but better than Tim Carter,the next WR taken. S

Ryan Denney. Role player at best, this seems like a bust. But again - at least DE was a clear need (the Bills had started Schobel across from a retiring Phil Hansen). And the next few DEs were total crap - Denney's career has at least exceeded Will Overstreet, though injuries may give him a pass, so we'll go on to Dennis Johnson, next on the board, who has been awful and bouced out of the league. I'm starting to question my system here, but this is an S.

3rd round:

Coy Wire. Was Strong Safety a need here ? The team had been starting Raion Hill, in his only few pro football games. Can't fault them for trying, but you certainly can fault them for getting nothing more than a special teams player. Nothing special on the board, but if you're picking betweeen crap and crap, pick another position, it's not like this team didn't have plenty of needs. SF.

 

down to 2/4, and those aren't a great 2.

 

2003:

1st round: Willis McGahee. Huge priority failure, and he has clearly been outmatched by Larry Johnson, next RB gone. SF AND PF.

2nd round: Chris Kelsay. Definitely needed a DE, as Denney was not establishing himself too well, so you can't fault the priorities. Next DE taken? Osi Umenyora. SF.

3rd round: Angelo Crowell. Can't complain - the LBs needed someone and he's performed well. THis is a hit. S

 

so, 1/3, including a double-fail.

 

2004:

1st round:

Lee Evans. No complaints in any way. S.

JP Losman. Ow, my brains. Can't complain about the fact we needed a QB, but the next one up was Schaub. SF.

3rd round:

Tim Anderson. Can't complain about choosing a DT, just this bum? Isaac Sopoaga was next. SF.

 

1/3

 

2005:

2nd round:

Roscoe Parrish. Priority failure clearly, with Evans and Moulds holding down the fort, but the next guy wasn't anything better. PF.

3rd round:

Kevin Everett. Not going to grade this one.

 

0/1, bringing our total for TD up to 9/16, though a more unimpressive 4/9 after a brilliant '01 draft.

 

2006:

1st round:

Donte Whitner. Obvious and painful priority failure (what's so wrong with Lawyer Milloy?) though he is better than Jason Allen, I think. PF.

John McCargo. Right idea, wrong execution. Total washout, and though Claude Wroten is nothing special, he's still playing football. SF.

3rd round:

Ashton Youboty. Needed a CB with Nate threatening to leave, and the replacement was clearly worse here. Still some promise, so I'll say this is an S.

 

1/3 under Marv's first season.

 

2007:

1st round:

Marshawn Lynch. Great pick: S

2nd round:

Paul Posluszny: Solid pick, anyway, but I gotta say that our trading up for him - rather than 'settling' for David Harris, shows that we really scout well here. SF.

3rd round:

Trent Edwards: Needed a QB pretty badly, as we can tell now. And plus, he's had his ups and downs, but would you really rather have Isaiah Stanbeck?

 

2/3

So we're running .500 with Marv, 3/6.

 

I think it's too early to judge Brandonball, but I will say that each of our picks hit a priority. Whether they did it well, well, we'll see.

 

But I think the thing here isn't that the Bills often whiff terribly - from '01 to '07, they were 12/22, which is at least above 50-50. The problem is that so few of those hits earn extra-bases. We draft narrow not-busts rather than dynamite stars.

imho we have not drafted an OL in rounds 1-4 since williams in 02 that is why we suck!! name one other team on such a streak!