What happened to the Bills?

[bananathumb]

It has seemed funny to me that all the criticism since the 4-1 start has been directed at Trent Edwards' "regression" rather than the obvious fact that the league figured out how to defend against the Bills: drop 7 or 8 guys into pass coverage.

 

When there are only 2-4 receivers going into patterns, every one of them is double-covered. When Edwards started dropping back, there was no open man, so, despite the fact that he had lots of time to look over the field, all he saw was DBs and LBs in coverage. When he forced throws, he got picked. Eventually he lost confidence and got frustrated and of course we began losing.

 

Meanwhile, our "running game" (and O-line) appeared to be getting better because, of course, the defense gave us the run, figuring that it wouldn't beat us with Lynch and Jackson. Once we got into the red zone, they wouldn't need to drop linebackers into coverage, so they could start focusing more on the run. It worked.

 

My point is - sorry it took so long - that our Offensive co-ordinator - even he saw this happening - has not been able to adjust to it. Or maybe ther is no adjustment when you don't have a great running game. Teams will just say, go ahead and run, but we are not going to let you pass against us.

 

Simple, but apparently effective, when you only have a rookie co-ordinator and a young QB to beat.

 

Rather than blame Edwards for this, give credit to the defensive co-ordinators in the NFL and recognize how weak our coaches are at counter-attacking.

[billybob]

Happened to Flutie - defenses figured him out and suddenly he went from awesome to awful - once one defense figures you out, everybody studies that tape- that's when you need a coach who can come up with an an answer, and why it helps to have a balanced offense.

[Captain Quint]

I think that this does have something to do with it. When you drop back into shotgun formation 15 times a game (even on 3rd & short and on the goalline), its pretty obvious that you aren't running the ball. I don't understand why they abandoned the run so early in the year, and believe that is one of the main reasons for our midseason slide.

 

However, the TE who was playing in the first few games is not the same as the one that was playing against Miami, NYJ, or SF. His confidence is clearly shaken, and the way to get a young QB's confidence back is to run the ball to take the pressure off of him. In order for this team to be successful, they're going to need to find that mix of run/pass because Trent isn't a QB who will take over a game and throw it 40 times, and Marshawn isn't a back who can consistently run for 130yds and a TD.

 

I don't see it as a regression, I see it more as some growing pains that all young QB's/ teams will go through.

[H2o]

Our attack wasn't balanced in the beginning of the year, but now the running game is coming together. So now what's the excuse going to be? It is on TrINT Edwards alot of times. It was clearly evident in the Cleveland game. There were WR's getting open all over, but he wasn't throwing the ball based on timing. He was holding the ball until some one would be basically standing in the opening. Because of this there were 3 quick INT's and 2 other possible INT's that were dropped. Are they dropping back more people? Yes. It isn't straight up double coverage on every WR and TE though. There are defenses called "zone" that ALL have openings at one place or another. TrINT isn't reading the "zone" and throwing to where one of our WR's WILL be open. Not standing, but running through the opening. TrINT has been scared to death since getting dropped by Adrian Wilson. You could yell "BOO!!!" at him in the pocket and he's letting go of the ball. He doesn't want to stand in there and take the hit that comes along with being an NFL QB. Even Carson Palmer hasn't been the same since VonOlhoffen dove into his knee. It'll be interesting to see if Brady is the same QB he's always been when he returns next season. Either way, this IS more TrINT than the defenses we're facing. Other QB's find ways to distribute the ball, why can't ours?

[Fezmid]

That'd be a great theory, except for the fact that people at the games have said that they've seen wide open receivers a lot during the games, Edwards just isn't seeing them (probably due to confidence).

[dave mcbride]

I think that this does have something to do with it. When you drop back into shotgun formation 15 times a game (even on 3rd & short and on the goalline), its pretty obvious that you aren't running the ball. I don't understand why they abandoned the run so early in the year, and believe that is one of the main reasons for our midseason slide.

 

However, the TE who was playing in the first few games is not the same as the one that was playing against Miami, NYJ, or SF. His confidence is clearly shaken, and the way to get a young QB's confidence back is to run the ball to take the pressure off of him. In order for this team to be successful, they're going to need to find that mix of run/pass because Trent isn't a QB who will take over a game and throw it 40 times, and Marshawn isn't a back who can consistently run for 130yds and a TD.

 

I don't see it as a regression, I see it more as some growing pains that all young QB's/ teams will go through.

He started playing against better - and better coached - teams, many of whose coaches were indoctrinated by Parcells/Belichick (Browns, Jets, Pats, Phins). I wouldn't read much into the SF game - it's now pretty clear he was playing hurt.

[jester43]

It has seemed funny to me that all the criticism since the 4-1 start has been directed at Trent Edwards' "regression" rather than the obvious fact that the league figured out how to defend against the Bills: drop 7 or 8 guys into pass coverage.

that's not my criticism. our offensive and defensive linemen plus our linebackers are not good or tough enough to win consistently in the nfl. if they were we'd turn journeyman skill players into stars like new england does. god, doesn't anyone remember the defense we had 8-9 years ago? those guys won games all by themselves, while the offense and special teams flat-out sucked.

 

so yeah, i agree with you.