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11-5... when has that ever not been enough?


Arkady Renko

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10-6 teams have failed to make the playoffs (see Browns last year, 49ers in the 1990s), but when -- if ever -- has a team with a 11-5 record not made the playoffs since the playoffs were expanded to 12 teams?

 

 

I believe in the late 80s one of Elway's Broncos teams finished 11-5 and didn't get in. Meanwhile the Browns went 8-8 and won their crappy division. The NFL changed the Wild Card rules a year or two later, adding (I believe) 2 more spots. Since then, there has never been a team that finished better than 10-6 that DIDN'T make it.

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I believe in the late 80s one of Elway's Broncos teams finished 11-5 and didn't get in. Meanwhile the Browns went 8-8 and won their crappy division. The NFL changed the Wild Card rules a year or two later, adding (I believe) 2 more spots. Since then, there has never been a team that finished better than 10-6 that DIDN'T make it.

 

IF there is a way to stay out of the playoffs at 11-5 the Bills will be the team to find a way to do it. Just our luck

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IF there is a way to stay out of the playoffs at 11-5 the Bills will be the team to find a way to do it. Just our luck

 

Exactly haha...but no, 11-5 should get you in...it's all subjective. At this point we look at schedules and say these guys will win this game, lose this game, etc. but nothing ever really goes as it should on paper...so hey, maybe we can win out...

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We don't have to worry about the West (DEN 6-5, SD 4-7). If we win out, we beat MIA, so we don't have to worry about them.

I think it's safe to assume Tenn wins their division (they already beat Indy once & have a better div rcd).

 

That leaves NJJ (8-3) or NE (7-4), Pitt (8-3)or Balt (7-4) & Indy (7-4).

If we win out, that gives NE 5 losses & the Jets 4. If NE loses another, we'd be ahead of them; if not, things go a ways down the division tie-breaker list. They play Pitt & Ari, so another loss is quite likely. (I'd put it at > 80%).

The Jets have a relatively easy remaining schedule, so 2 more losses (in addition to losing to us) is unlikely IMO.

 

Balt has a relatively tough schedule, (Dal, wash, pitt, jac, Cin) as does Pitt (NE, Bal, Dal, tenn, cle), so beating out one of them is "reasonable", let's guesstimate 70%.

 

W/ the exception of a game against Tenn, Indy has an easy schedule, so I'll guess they've got a 40% chance of sweeping the remaining games IF they lose to Tenn; let's say them losing 2 is offset by the chance that they beat Tenn (I tend to think it's not).

 

So we have to beat out 2 of the other 3 competitors. Using those odds (20, 30, & 60) of losing out, I believe that means we've got a 36% chance of missing even if we do win out.

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I honestly think a 10-6 record will get us in, and if doesn't, so be it.

 

I am as optimistic as anyone, but 11-5 isn't going to happen realistically. I am thinking 10-6, we make the playoffs, and taken down the patriots. Then we take down the broncos. Then we beat the titans on a last second kickoff return by leodis (no laterals as we know the refs would instantly call them forward, regardless of the truth), and then the cardinals get the beating of a lifetime in the superbowl.

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I honestly think a 10-6 record will get us in, and if doesn't, so be it.

 

I am as optimistic as anyone, but 11-5 isn't going to happen realistically. I am thinking 10-6, we make the playoffs, and taken down the patriots. Then we take down the broncos. Then we beat the titans on a last second kickoff return by leodis (no laterals as we know the refs would instantly call them forward, regardless of the truth), and then the cardinals get the beating of a lifetime in the superbowl.

 

 

10-6 is not going to be good enough for the Bills to get in based on tie breakers 11-5 is their only chance. But given the history of their coach and their play this season 7-9 is the best we will do anyway.

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I believe in the late 80s one of Elway's Broncos teams finished 11-5 and didn't get in. Meanwhile the Browns went 8-8 and won their crappy division. The NFL changed the Wild Card rules a year or two later, adding (I believe) 2 more spots. Since then, there has never been a team that finished better than 10-6 that DIDN'T make it.

 

In 1985 the Broncos were 11-5 and didn't make it, but that was when only 5 teams per conference made it. I'd be curious to know if any other 11-5 team hasn't made it in before.

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We don't have to worry about the West (DEN 6-5, SD 4-7). If we win out, we beat MIA, so we don't have to worry about them.

I think it's safe to assume Tenn wins their division (they already beat Indy once & have a better div rcd).

 

That leaves NJJ (8-3) or NE (7-4), Pitt (8-3)or Balt (7-4) & Indy (7-4).

If we win out, that gives NE 5 losses & the Jets 4. If NE loses another, we'd be ahead of them; if not, things go a ways down the division tie-breaker list. They play Pitt & Ari, so another loss is quite likely. (I'd put it at > 80%).

The Jets have a relatively easy remaining schedule, so 2 more losses (in addition to losing to us) is unlikely IMO.

 

Balt has a relatively tough schedule, (Dal, wash, pitt, jac, Cin) as does Pitt (NE, Bal, Dal, tenn, cle), so beating out one of them is "reasonable", let's guesstimate 70%.

 

W/ the exception of a game against Tenn, Indy has an easy schedule, so I'll guess they've got a 40% chance of sweeping the remaining games IF they lose to Tenn; let's say them losing 2 is offset by the chance that they beat Tenn (I tend to think it's not).

 

So we have to beat out 2 of the other 3 competitors. Using those odds (20, 30, & 60) of losing out, I believe that means we've got a 36% chance of missing even if we do win out.

 

When you have to write an analysis this long assessing our playoff chances, they got to be low and too far out of our control. The Bills key was winning 2 of 3 over our division opponents, and the team tanked. Losing those 3 puts a 11-5 record in peril of missing the playoffs, let alone 10-6. Until we get a coach that can manage a game and not get outcoached against division opponents, there will be no Bills football in January.

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We hold our own destiny, most of the teams in front of us: Jets, Pats dolfags are all on the schedule. If we take care of business we improve our record, and worsen there's. The question is can we make enough plays to beat those guys? We will certainly be outcoached by mangina and belicheat, possibly tony soprano too. :)

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10-6 teams have failed to make the playoffs (see Browns last year, 49ers in the 1990s), but when -- if ever -- has a team with a 11-5 record not made the playoffs since the playoffs were expanded to 12 teams?

 

Nobody on this board said that so I don't know where you're getting that from. A 10 win season usually gets you in the playoffs but not in this conference this year and especially not us since we don't have any tiebreakers over any team ahead of us currently.

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