Official 2008 AFC Playoff Race Thread

[Typical TBD Guy]

Through Week 12:

 

------------- (division seeding)

 

1. Titans: 10-1

2. Steelers: 8-3

3. Jets: 8-3

4. Broncos: 6-5

 

------------- (wild card seeding)

 

5. Colts: 7-4

6. Ravens: 7-4

 

------------- (ranking of non-playoff teams)

 

7. Patriots: 7-4

8. Dolphins: 6-5

9. Bills: 6-5

10. Chargers: 4-7

11. Browns: 4-7

12. Jaguars: 4-7 (eliminated from AFC South Division Title)

13. Texans: 4-7 (eliminated from AFC South Division Title)

14. Raiders: 3-8

15. Bengals: 1-9-1 (eliminated from playoffs)

16. Chiefs: 1-10 (eliminated from Wild Card #1 and Wild Card #2)

 

My Analysis:

 

Going by record and remaining schedule, the South and West Divisions seem relatively settled with the Titans and Broncos winning their respective divisions and the Colts earning one of the Wild Cards (although I wouldn't be too surprised to see the Chargers beat out the Broncos). The Ravens and Steelers both have pretty difficult remaining schedules, so my best guess is that no Wild Card team comes from the AFC North this year.

 

As for the AFC East and the status of our Bills, all I'll say is that we are in very big danger of losing not only the division title but also the other wild card if we lose even just 1 additional division game. The AFC conference record tiebreaker could be in play, as well, since there's the possibility that all 4 AFC East teams finish with a 3-3 division record. Therefore, I'd say that our final 4 games - including the Denver away game - are all "must win" scenarios. The 49ers game should also be considered "must win" (sorry Crayonz...) because I could see the Pats, Jets, and Colts all finishing 11-5 or better even if we were to win our last 4 after a 49ers loss to end up 10-6.

 

Here's the silver lining: if the Jets lose to Miami in Week 17 or in 2 of their other 3 non-AFC East games, the Bills control their own destiny for that precious AFC East Division crown/playoff home game that has escaped us for the past 12 seasons.

 

Week 13 Matchups to Watch:

 

Bills over 49ers, 1pm, Sun

Bengals over Ravens, 1pm, Sun

Browns over Colts, 1pm, Sun

Rams over Dolphins, 1pm, Sun

Steelers over Patriots, 4:15pm, Sun

Broncos over Jets, 4:15pm, Sun

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Schedules for the relevant teams, so its all in one place for everybody...

 

AFC East

New York Jets (8-3): DEN, @SF, BUF, @SEA, MIA

New England Patriots* (7-4): PIT, @SEA, @OAK, ARI, @BUF

Miami Dolphins (6-5): @STL, @BUF, SF, @KC, @NYJ

Buffalo Bills (6-5): SF, MIA, @NYJ, @DEN, NE

 

Wildcard contenders

Indianapolis Colts (7-4): @CLE, CIN, DET, @JAX, TEN

Baltimore Ravens (7-4): @CIN, WAS, PIT, @DAL, JAX

[SKOOBY]

The Jets are the only team I see finishing better than 10-6.

 

The Patriots still have to play PIT, Arizona, and away against us.

 

Although the Colts have looked very good the past three weeks. They are still too inconsistent for me to think they'll only lose one out of their next five.

 

However, I think the Colts will take one of the Wild Card Spots.

 

That leave the last WC spot between the Patriots, Dolphins, Ravens, and Bills. IMO, the Patriots will get it.

 

The biggest game for us will be at New York. To hold any tiebreaker with the Patriots we need to go 3-3 in the Division. We must win that game if we want any shot at the playoffs.

 

3 home games and 2 away, so it's not impossible.

[justnzane]

Can we get this pinned? at least until the Bills fate is sealed or their playoff spot clinched?

[Thoner7]

It has really become a 4 horse race for the final wild card. Chalk Indy up as one spot, they are good and have such an easy schedule, its is pretty much done. That leaves Balt, NE, Miami, and Buffalo. We cannot afford to lose any of our AFC matchups because it really will hurt us with the tiebreakers. We can catch up to NE and Miami with our shcedule, and Baltimore has got to be the luckiest team ever as they aren't good, although their D is ok. We have a chance, but one game vrs a terrible team doesn''t give me anough confidence in our terrible coaching staff.

[otisly00]

Not impossible.

 

But with the way the Jets are playing, you honestly think we can go into New York and win?

 

 

Consider that along with Jauron's record against winning teams, and Trent's struggles against the 3-4 and I don't give us much of a chance.

 

I'm always a half glass full guy; but our 4 game losing streak was mainly the result of horrible turnovers. I think the players know that, as most comments have suggested the losses are from them shooting themselves in the foot. We dominated the Jets in the 1st half - I really dont think we'll be scared going into NY IF we are on a 3 game winning streak. If we can win this week at home, coupled with a few more losses in the AFC (NE @ Pitt is one) that helps our WC shots, the Miami game in Toronto will be a great one.

 

Getting by San Fran, and getting a few more of our starters back - Whitner, Scott, Schobel (??), and maybe Greer for the stretch run could be a good thing. It seems we have finally learned that we need to run the ball to set up our passing game...FINALLY.

[Captain Quint]

Thanks for this as it is definitely useful, but I don't think that this thread should have been started by a guy named "McKinleys Curse".

[MPetro24]

Thanks for starting this thread. This info is always useful to have.

 

Go Bills!

[Like A Mofo]

Good thread but to me its simple for the Bills:

 

The ONLY game the Bills can afford to lose is this Sunday against SF...and the Bills MUST sweep the 3 remaining division games left.

 

And hope for other teams to lose.

 

Ideally, running the table would be the best option.

 

It looks bleak based on tiebreakers, but you never know..first things first: Let's get to 7-5 and make that game in Toronto mean something.

[BuffaloWings]

It has really become a 4 horse race for the final wild card. Chalk Indy up as one spot, they are good and have such an easy schedule, its is pretty much done. That leaves Balt, NE, Miami, and Buffalo. We cannot afford to lose any of our AFC matchups because it really will hurt us with the tiebreakers. We can catch up to NE and Miami with our shcedule, and Baltimore has got to be the luckiest team ever as they aren't good, although their D is ok. We have a chance, but one game vrs a terrible team doesn''t give me anough confidence in our terrible coaching staff.

Baltimore's D is good...not just ok, good. That said, their schedule is a killer. They're at Cincy this week, but then play Washington, Pittsburgh, and at Dallas. They need to lose at least 2 more games, which can easily be done....I'm not yet convinced about the Ravens, outside of the defense.

 

Miami's schedule is relatively easy (@STL, @BUF, SF, @KC, @NYJ), but they play 4 of their last 5 on the road. The Bills should just concentrate on beating them once they come to town...er, Toronto. It would be nice if St. Louis or KC shows up in either of those games.

 

New England's* schedule has one tough game (Pittsburgh), plus two consecutive west coast trips (@SEA, @OAK). Perhaps Arizona could come in and pull off a shocker, but that won't happen with the way the officials call games in Foxboro.

 

All in all, chances are still decent for the Bills to sneak in. But they MUST go 4-1 (at worst) down the stretch to have any chance.

[bills_fan]

Baltimore's D is good...not just ok, good. That said, their schedule is a killer. They're at Cincy this week, but then play Washington, Pittsburgh, and at Dallas. They need to lose at least 2 more games, which can easily be done....I'm not yet convinced about the Ravens, outside of the defense.

 

Miami's schedule is relatively easy (@STL, @BUF, SF, @KC, @NYJ), but they play 4 of their last 5 on the road. The Bills should just concentrate on beating them once they come to town...er, Toronto. It would be nice if St. Louis or KC shows up in either of those games.

 

New England's* schedule has one tough game (Pittsburgh), plus two consecutive west coast trips (@SEA, @OAK). Perhaps Arizona could come in and pull off a shocker, but that won't happen with the way the officials call games in Foxboro.

 

All in all, chances are still decent for the Bills to sneak in. But they MUST go 4-1 (at worst) down the stretch to have any chance.

 

 

I see the 2nd WC game coming down to 9-6 NE at 9-6 BUF on 12/28...win and you're in.

[Raf]

Here's the sheet I made earlier today. Pittsburgh could very easily tank it down the stretch and go 2-3.

 

Indy looks like they are a lock, but they end off the year with two tough games. It's also not out of the realm of possiblity for either Cleveland, Cincy or Detriot to surprise them.

 

If we win out, we're going to make it.

 

A loss to SF could still get us in, but would kill our momentum. The second option would be a loss to Denver, but things wouldn't look good in those scenarios.

 

Tennessee 10-1 .... at Det, CLE, at Hou, PIT, at Indy ... Conf: 7-1 Div: 4-0

Pittsburgh 8-3 ...... at Ne, DAL, at Balt, at Ten, CLE .... Conf: 7-1 Div: 4-0

New York 8-3 ....... DEN, at Sf, BUF, at Sea, MIA......... Conf: 6-3 Div: 3-1

Denver 6-5 ......... at Ny, KC, at Car, BUF, at Sd ......... Conf: 3-5 Div: 2-2

 

Indianapolis 7-4 .... at Cle, CIN, DET, at Jax, TEN ........ Conf: 6-2 Div: 2-2

New England 7-4 ... PIT, SEA, at Oak, ARI, at Buf ....... Conf: 5-4 Div: 3-2

 

Baltimore 7-4 ....... at Cin, WSH, PIT, at Dal, JAX ....... Conf: 6-3 Div: 3-1

Miami 6-5 ............ at Stl, at Buf, SF, at Kc, at Ny ..... Conf: 5-4 Div: 2-2

Buffalo 6-5 .......... SF, MIA, at Ny, at Den, NE .......... Conf: 4-4 Div: 0-3

 

Week 13 (in order of importance)

Buffalo over San Francisco

Denver over New York

Pittsburgh over New England

Cincinnati over Baltimore

Cleveland over Indianapolis

St. Louis over Miami

Detroit over Tennessee

[phillyrich]

Buf will finish 10 - 6. The chances of making the playoffs I feel are 40 - 60.

 

We all need to remember how young this team is. No consulation I know. We have four starters on offense with three years or less experience and 6 starters on d the same.

 

get off Trent's back everyone. He went through a sh-- spell. Unless you are on a blue chip/sure fire lock of a playoff team (which we are not yet), you will overcome the inexperience.

[Reddy Freddy]

I see the 2nd WC game coming down to 9-6 NE at 9-6 BUF on 12/28...win and you're in.

 

This seems plausible. I disagree with the conventional wisdom that 10-6 is unlikely to get us in. If memory serves, a very low percentage of 10-6 teams miss the playoffs, although I know the Browns did last year.

 

Count me among those who believe we can lose to either the Broncos or 49ers and still make the playoffs. It doesn't look like that now, but a lot can change in 5 weeks (as the Bills found out).

 

Also, remember that ties are settled first within the division, then between other conference wild card contenders. In other words, if the Bills, Patriots, and Ravens were all to finish 10-6, we would need to beat the Patriots in the tiebreaker first, then beat the Ravens.

[Raf]

I really believe we'll beat up on the Niners and the Fins in the next two weeks. We'll be sitting at 8-5 and know a lot more about what we need then.

 

The Steelers have to either dominate or completely tank it. They play key games against New England and Baltimore. Hopefully they either win both or lose both.

 

If we lose to either SF or DEN, we can catch New England if they lose one of the following games (PIT, at Oak).

 

If we want to catch the Jets at 10-6, they'd probably need to lose to DEN and MIA. Not very likely.

 

First place is really only an option if we run the table. Otherwise it's battling out with Pit/Balt and NE for the wild card spot (Indy would have to really choke to miss).

[TheMadCap]

too lazy to look it up, what is NE* record vs. AFC?

[Raf]

too lazy to look it up, what is NE* record vs. AFC?

 

Scroll three posts up.

 

5-4

[Reddy Freddy]

Here's the sheet I made earlier today. Pittsburgh could very easily tank it down the stretch and go 2-3.

 

Indy looks like they are a lock, but they end off the year with two tough games. It's also not out of the realm of possiblity for either Cleveland, Cincy or Detriot to surprise them.

 

If we win out, we're going to make it.

 

A loss to SF could still get us in, but would kill our momentum. The second option would be a loss to Denver, but things wouldn't look good in those scenarios.

 

Tennessee 10-1 .... at Det, CLE, at Hou, PIT, at Indy ... Conf: 7-1 Div: 4-0

Pittsburgh 8-4 ...... at Ne, DAL, at Balt, at Ten, CLE .... Conf: 7-1 Div: 4-0

New York 8-4 ....... DEN, at Sf, BUF, at Sea, MIA......... Conf: 6-3 Div: 3-1

Denver 6-5 ......... at Ny, KC, at Car, BUF, at Sd ......... Conf: 3-5 Div: 2-2

 

Indianapolis 7-4 .... at Cle, CIN, DET, at Jax, TEN ........ Conf: 6-2 Div: 2-2

New England 7-4 ... PIT, SEA, at Oak, ARI, at Buf ....... Conf: 5-4 Div: 3-2

 

Baltimore 7-4 ....... at Cin, WSH, PIT, at Dal, JAX ....... Conf: 6-3 Div: 3-1

Miami 6-5 ............ at Stl, at Buf, SF, at Kc, at Ny ..... Conf: 5-4 Div: 2-2

Buffalo 6-5 .......... SF, MIA, at Ny, at Den, NE .......... Conf: 4-4 Div: 0-3

 

Week 13 (in order of importance)

Buffalo over San Francisco

Denver over New York

Pittsburgh over New England

Cincinnati over Baltimore

Cleveland over Indianapolis

St. Louis over Miami

Detroit over Tennessee

 

Good analysis. At the moment, it appears our path of least resistance is to concede the division to the Jets and one wild card to the Colts and simply focus on beating out the Pats, Phins, and Ravens for the last wild card. This actually isn't hard to see, if we take care of business in our division games.

 

For example, we could actually lose to Denver or San Fran, win the rest of our games, and still claim the final wild card if: the Pats were to lose to the Cardinals (and the Bills of course), and the Ravens were to lose to Wash, Pitt, and Dallas (all of which they are likely to be the underdog), and Miami were to lose to the Jets (and the Bills of course).

 

Under the above scenario, the Bills, Pats, and Dolphins would all be 10-6 and the Ravens would be 9-7. The Bills would win the tiebreaker over the Dolphins based on superior division record (3-3 vs. 2-4) and I believe we would beat the Pats based on a better record vs. common opponents, although I would need to confirm this.

[Reddy Freddy]

Good analysis. At the moment, it appears our path of least resistance is to concede the division to the Jets and one wild card to the Colts and simply focus on beating out the Pats, Phins, and Ravens for the last wild card. This actually isn't hard to see, if we take care of business in our division games.

 

For example, we could actually lose to Denver or San Fran, win the rest of our games, and still claim the final wild card if: the Pats were to lose to the Cardinals (and the Bills of course), and the Ravens were to lose to Wash, Pitt, and Dallas (all of which they are likely to be the underdog), and Miami were to lose to the Jets (and the Bills of course).

 

Under the above scenario, the Bills, Pats, and Dolphins would all be 10-6 and the Ravens would be 9-7. The Bills would win the tiebreaker over the Dolphins based on superior division record (3-3 vs. 2-4) and I believe we would beat the Pats based on a better record vs. common opponents, although I would need to confirm this.

 

Also, since it seems this comes up every year, I want to stress that the second tiebreaker to break a tie within a division is record vs. common opponents, not conference record.

 

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

[Raf]

Good analysis. At the moment, it appears our path of least resistance is to concede the division to the Jets and one wild card to the Colts and simply focus on beating out the Pats, Phins, and Ravens for the last wild card. This actually isn't hard to see, if we take care of business in our division games.

 

For example, we could actually lose to Denver or San Fran, win the rest of our games, and still claim the final wild card if: the Pats were to lose to the Cardinals (and the Bills of course), and the Ravens were to lose to Wash, Pitt, and Dallas (all of which they are likely to be the underdog), and Miami were to lose to the Jets (and the Bills of course).

 

Under the above scenario, the Bills, Pats, and Dolphins would all be 10-6 and the Ravens would be 9-7. The Bills would win the tiebreaker over the Dolphins based on superior division record (3-3 vs. 2-4) and I believe we would beat the Pats based on a better record vs. common opponents, although I would need to confirm this.

 

I'd consider this weekend to be a good one if we take care of business versus the Niners and the Steelers beat the Patriots. Bonus points if the Broncos and Bengals win.

 

Yesterday's results didn't help us one bit unfortunately.

 

The only thing it did was allow us to pretty much cross off Miami from this race. Assuming we beat them in 2 weeks, of course. With that said, a Dolphins win would have helped us yesterday, because it would have moved New England (definitely the better team) down to 5 losses. Miami is going to lose a few more this year. Even though their schedule looks easy, they are on the road 4 of the 5 games.