Does anyone have stat analysis of TD drafting?

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Certaily the conventional wisdom among many on this board is that TD's drafts have obviously sucked. However, it seems to me that his view is mostly colored and based on folks correctly hating the W/L results produced under TD.

 

However, though I certainly agree that TD's record and team bulding suck, his drafts don't strike me as out of the norm for success of most NFL GMs and the only thing I have heard that even purports to be based on some allegedly objective numeric computation is that TD's record if it is measured by players who stuck with the team is far better than most.

 

I'm a big enough stat hound to know that they often are a better measure of truth than our wholely biased opinions, but as my college thesis was entitled Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics I know that stats are fully mallable in many hands and that though they can be a good indicator they don't prove amything.

 

That being said, I would love to see something more than folks often fact-free opinioms about TD's dtraft sucking. Anything out there to buttress our opinions.

 

In my view, TDs draft history is:

 

2001- Excellent draft particularly when you factor in this was a team in full cap hell. His top picks like Clements, Schobel and Henry have gotten some outside objective demonstrations of some good work (Schobel was rewarded with a big contract and is one of the few Bills on a productivity roll right now, Henry did make the Pro Bowl and before us fickle fans turned on him this year he was renowned by many as a favorite Bill after two straight 1200 yard seasos and his picture even replacing Drew's om Two Bills Drive, Clements gets his share of whines on the Wall, but though he clearly ain't as good as he thinks he is he is seen as a playmaker on the Bills winning the punt return job and being credited with a number of D TDs in his career.

 

2002- By far TDs worse dradft as all the top picks have disappointed in some big way. This buch showed some early prpductivity but their careers have generally fone south in a big way. Nevertheless a majority of these picks are still with the team and for the most part hold down starting roles. Even though trends are clear for these players in their third year, due to some early production it is probably still too early to give u completely on these players especially where no credible aslternative is suggested folks merely whine.

 

2003- Too early to asess these players and evem the trendlines are a bit cloudy with only a data point and a little less than a third assess these players. As far as where their careers stand right now, if WM continues at his current pace of recovery getting a #3 talent with picck 20 something will easily be an historic picck not simply for the Bills but in the NFL. T. McGee also shows signs of greatness. With both the Kelsay and Aiken picks moving up the depth chart it is too early to accurately assess but if WM works outt this season this draft will ne viewed as a success.

 

2004- Way to early to judge.

 

At amy rate, I think that an assessment of it being true that BOTH TD sucks at team-building and has at least been at the norm or better of NFL draft managers may actually the facts of the case.

 

I think this contradiction may actually be explained by my growing sense that in the era of the salary cap the draft is a valuable tool, but is simply a tool and not the key to building a winning team. I know the conventional wisdom is that you build through the draft, but if this view is true it certainly runs counter to the experience of the current class of the league the Patriots.

 

This was a team that acquired a third of its players in their first SB year after June 1st from cap casualties. Probably the best case they have to make about the import of the draft to them was a 6th round draft pick whome they were willing to give every other team in the league 6 or more shots at taking him they valued him so highly. This is a team (or should I say (TEAM) built around free agency with the draft playing an important but sudsidiary role.

 

I'd love to see some analysis of this as I think the CW that TD is a horrendous drafter is unsupported by anything but opinion and also that to much importance id placed on the draft by fans,

[Mikie2times]

In my view, TDs draft history is:

 

2001- Excellent draft particularly when you factor in this was a team in full cap hell.  His top picks like Clements, Schobel and Henry have gotten some outside objective demonstrations of some good work (Schobel was rewarded with a big contract and is one of the few Bills on a productivity roll right now, Henry did make the Pro Bowl and before us fickle fans turned on him this year he was renowned by many as a favorite Bill after two straight 1200 yard seasos and his picture even replacing Drew's om Two Bills Drive, Clements gets his share of whines on the Wall, but though he clearly ain't as good as he thinks he is he is seen as a playmaker on the Bills winning the punt return job and being credited with a number of D TDs in his career.

 

2002- By far TDs worse dradft as all the top picks have disappointed in some big way.  This buch showed some early prpductivity but their careers have generally fone south in a big way. Nevertheless a majority of these picks are still with the team and for the most part hold down starting roles. Even though trends are clear for these players in their third year, due to some early production it is probably still too early to give u completely on these players especially where no credible aslternative is suggested folks merely whine.

 

2003- Too early to asess these players and evem the trendlines are a bit cloudy with only a data point and a little less than a third assess these players.  As far as where their careers stand right now, if WM continues at his current pace of recovery getting a #3 talent with picck 20 something will easily be an historic picck not simply for the Bills but in the NFL.  T. McGee also shows signs of greatness. With both the Kelsay and Aiken picks moving up the depth chart it is too early to accurately assess but if WM works outt this season this draft will ne viewed as a success.

 

2004- Way to early to judge.

 

I'd love to see some analysis of this as I think the CW that TD is a horrendous drafter is unsupported by anything but opinion and also that to much importance id placed on the draft by fans,

85764[/snapback]

 

As long as you try and remain impartial I think many people here have watched enough of these players to do a review similar to yours. As part of my TD review I included the drafts, when I analyzed those drafts I certainly accounted for statistics. Whether your a Monday morning QB or TD himself, until enough time has progressed all draft reviews are is opinions.

 

2001- I agree with your opinion that this was the most successful of the TD drafts. As I stated in my TD summary the major problem I have with this draft is the uncertainty of Jonas Jennings and Travis Henry. Both could likely be gone after this season, if thats the case then what we have to show for in this draft is Schobel and Clements. Players obviously come and go in this league but if after four seasons all we have is Clements and Schobel from this draft I won't be able to look at it in the same light. My argument is of course based on a hypothetical situation.

 

2002- Agree, however I feel that the trends are strong enough to make a valid assessment on these players

 

2003- Like you said to early to tell, my infant staged analysis of this draft is as follows. Willis could be a very special talent and if thats the case he would make this draft good all by himself. While I think Magee will be an above average player I don't see greatness, lets hope your right on this one. Aiken and Kelsey are still developing, I think a realistic expectation from that pair is that one might emerge as a every down player,

 

2004- Agree

[Guest Guest_eyedog_*]

One of the main reasons this team stinks is because TD totally wiffed on the 2002 draft. These players are supposed to be the core of the team now, and they all stink. Even if one or two panned out it wouldn't be to bad, but as of now this is an o-fer.

[Yard Monkey]

I don't even remember who was in the 2002 draft!

 

Who was it? Denney? who else.......? Bledsoe (day 2 trade)?