Interesting stats on polls and cellphones

[Kelly the Dog]

Some pollsters only use landlines, and just as many use landlines and cell phones. Obviously, more people under 40 are cell phone only. The results are rather significant. Landline only polls (nine of them) have Obama up by an average of 5.1 points. Landline and cellphone polls (five of them) have Obama up by 9.4 points.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/cel...d.html#comments

[In-A-Gadda-Levitre]

Some pollsters only use landlines, and just as many use landlines and cell phones. Obviously, more people under 40 are cell phone only. The results are rather significant. Landline only polls (nine of them) have Obama up by an average of 5.1 points. Landline and cellphone polls (five of them) have Obama up by 9.4 points.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/cel...d.html#comments

I read the real reason is that the polls run on automated dialing software that only works on landlines and for some reason cannot call cell phones from the automated scripts, so cellphones must be dialed manually. This article said only the ABC News/WaPo Poll did this manual dialing, hence they were usually showing a bigger advantage for Obama vis a vis younger voters that only had cellphones. I can probably find that article if you're interested...

[Kelly the Dog]

I read the real reason is that the polls run on automated dialing software that only works on landlines and for some reason cannot call cell phones from the automated scripts, so cellphones must be dialed manually. This article said only the ABC News/WaPo Poll did this manual dialing, hence they were usually showing a bigger advantage for Obama vis a vis younger voters that only had cellphones. I can probably find that article if you're interested...

How would that account for the four other polls that use cell phones?

[In-A-Gadda-Levitre]

How would that account for the four other polls that use cell phones?

ok, here's the real deal... The polling software chooses landline numbers at random and dials them. Laws prevent random dialing of cell phones, so most polls don't call cell phones because of the cost of manual dialing. But some do, obviously from your 538 collection.

[Wacka]

How about all the people that tell them to pound sand.

The only poll that matters is the one after they close on Tuesday.

[Boomer860]

Obama stands for higher taxes on everyone and putting companies out of business by heavy duty govt.regulations. He doesnt stand for individualism he stands for all govt. meaning the politicians. Now I am favor of health care for everyone however having the govt. run it. Gimme a break the govt gets involved and its screwed up. Barney Frank wants to reduce the size of the military WTF. ,he's probably afraid of a military coup. The are some very serious problems coming in this country no matter who is elected more so with Obama.

Bush and his buddies are as much as fault as anyone. Obama says the Constitution is lacking are you kidding me

[In-A-Gadda-Levitre]

Obama stands for higher taxes on everyone and putting companies out of business by heavy duty govt.regulations. He doesnt stand for individualism he stands for all govt. meaning the politicians. Now I am favor of health care for everyone however having the govt. run it. Gimme a break the govt gets involved and its screwed up. Barney Frank wants to reduce the size of the military WTF. ,he's probably afraid of a military coup. The are some very serious problems coming in this country no matter who is elected more so with Obama.

Bush and his buddies are as much as fault as anyone. Obama says the Constitution is lacking are you kidding me

at least you could've trolled about cell phones and polling.

 

how about Obama is secretly transmitting liberal propaganda into our cell phones, convincing us to pay welfare to those that don't have have cell phones

 

or that commie fraud Obama is gonna redistribute our cell phone minutes to pre-paid subscribers!

 

or even Obama (that fraud) is going to make Barney Frank the Secretary of Mobile Telephony and he will mandate all new phones come in pink.

[elegantelliotoffen]

How about all the people that tell them to pound sand.

The only poll that matters is the one after they close on Tuesday.

 

Funny, I remember saying that to myself in 2004.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

 

RCP Average FINAL 50.0% 48.5% 1.0% Bush +1.5

RCP Average 10/27 - 11/1 48.9% 47.4% 0.9% Bush +1.5

Marist (1026 LV) 11/1 49% 50% 0% Kerry +1

GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/31 - 11/1 50% 46% 0% Bush +4

TIPP (1041 LV) 10/30 - 11/1 50.1% 48.0% 1.1% Bush +2.1

CBS News (939 LV) 10/29 - 11/1 49% 47% 1% Bush +2

Harris (1509 LV) 10/29 - 11/1 49% 48% 2% Bush +1

FOX News (1200 LV) 10/30 - 10/31 46% 48% 1% Kerry +2

Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1

CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)* 10/29 - 10/31 49% 49% 1% TIE

NBC/WSJ (1014 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1

ABC/Wash Post (2904 LV)** 10/28 - 10/31 49% 48% 0% Bush +1

ARG (1258 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 48% 48% 1% TIE

CBS/NY Times (643 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 49% 46% 1% Bush +3

Pew Research (1925 LV) 10/27 - 10/30 51% 48% 1% Bush +3

Newsweek (882 LV) 10/27 - 10/29 50% 44% 1% Bush +6

GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/25 - 10/28 51% 46% 0% Bush +5

ICR (741 LV) 10/22 - 10/26 48% 45% 2% Bush +3

CNN/USAT/Gallup (1195 LV) 10/22 - 10/24 51% 46% 1% Bush +5

Los Angeles Times (881 LV) 10/21 - 10/24 48% 48% 1% TIE

Newsweek (880 LV) 10/21 - 10/22 48% 46% 1% Bush +2

Time (803 LV) 10/19 - 10/21 51% 46% 2% Bush +5

GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/18 - 10/21 49% 45% 1% Bush +4

AP-Ipsos (976 LV) 10/18 - 10/20 46% 49% 2% Kerry +3

Marist (772 LV w/leaners) 10/17 - 10/19 49% 48% 1% Bush +1

FOX News (1000 LV) 10/17 - 10/18 49% 42% 2% Bush +7 Pew Research (1070 LV) 10/15 - 10/19 47% 47% 1% TIE

ABC/Wash Post* (1237 LV) 10/16 - 10/18 51% 46% 1% Bush +5

NBC/WSJ (LV w/leaners) 10/16 - 10/18 48% 48% 1% TIE

Harris (820 LV)*** 10/14 - 10/17 49.5% 44.5% 1% Bush +5

CBS/NY Times (678 LV) 10/14 - 10/17 47% 45% 2% Bush +2

CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV) 10/14 - 10/16 52% 44% 1% Bush +8

Time (865 LV w/leaners) 10/14 - 10/15 48% 47% 3% Bush +1

Newsweek (880 LV) 10/14 - 10/15 50% 44% 1% Bush +6

GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/11 - 10/14 49% 46% 0% Bush +3

ABC/Wash Post* (1248 LV) 10/11 - 10/13 48% 48% 1% TIE

Zogby (1223 LV) 10/9 - 10/11 45% 45% 2% TIE

CBS News (760 LV) 10/9 - 10/11 48% 45% 2% Bush +3

ICR (763 LV) 10/9 - 10/11 48% 43% 2% Bush +5

CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV) 10/9 - 10/10 48% 49% 1% Kerry +1

Time (886 LV w/leaners) 10/6 - 10/7 46% 45% 4% Bush +1

GW/Battleground (1250 LV) 10/3 - 10/7 49% 46% 0% Bush +3

AP/Ipsos (944 LV) 10/4 - 10/6 46% 50% 2% Kerry +4

Marist (642 LV) 10/4 - 10/5 49% 46% 1% Bush +3

Fox News (1000 LV) 10/3 - 10/4 47% 45% 1% Bush +2

ICR (762 LV) 10/1 - 10/5 51% 45% 2% Bush +6

ARG (800 LV) 10/2 - 10/4 46% 46% 2% TIE

ABC News/WP (1169 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 51% 46% 1% Bush +5

CBS News/NYT (561 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 47% 47% 1% TIE

Zogby (1036 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 46% 43% 2% Bush +3

Pew Research (801 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 49% 44% 2% Bush +5

CNN/USAT/Gallup (772 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 49% 49% 1% TIE

Newsweek (1013 RV) 9/30 - 10/2 45% 47% 2% Kerry +2

SHU Poll Inst. (1003 LV) 9/27 - 10/2 48% 43% 2% Bush +5

Battleground (1000 LV) 9/27 - 9/30 51% 44% 1% Bush +7

LA Times (1100 LV) 9/25 - 9/28 51% 45% 2% Bush +6

CNN/USAT/Gallup (758 LV) 9/24 - 9/26 52% 44% 3% Bush +8

IBD/TIPP (649 LV) 9/22 - 9/27 45% 45% 2% TIE

ABC News/WP (810 LV) 9/23 - 9/26 51% 45% 1% Bush +6

Pew Research (948 RV) 9/22 - 9/26 48% 40% 2% Bush +8

Time (877 LV) 9/21 - 9/23 48% 42% 5% Bush +6

FOX News (1000 LV) 9/21 - 9/22 46% 42% 1% Bush +4

Battleground (1000 LV) 9/20 - 9/23 50% 45% 0% Bush +5

Marist (630 LV) 9/20 - 9/22 50% 44% 2% Bush +6

CBS News (931 LV) 9/20 - 9/22 51% 42% 2% Bush +9

AP/Ipsos (931 LV) 9/20 - 9/22 52% 45% 1% Bush +7

Pew Research (989 RV) 9/17 - 9/21 45% 42% 3% Bush +3

NBC News/WSJ (787 LV) 9/17 - 9/19 50% 46% 1% Bush +4

Zogby (1066 LV) 9/17 - 9/19 46% 43% 1% Bush +3

IBD/TIPP (650 LV) 9/14 - 9/18 45% 42% 2% Bush +3

ARG (LV) 9/7 - 9/21 47% 46% 1% Bush +1

CBS News (1048 RV) 9/12 - 9/16 50% 41% 3% Bush +9

CNN/USAT/Gallup (767 LV) 9/13 - 9/15 54% 40% 3% Bush +14

Battleground (1000 LV) 9/12 - 9/15 49% 45% 1% Bush +4

Pew Research (725 LV) 9/11 - 9/14 47% 46% 1% Bush +1

Harris (867 LV) 9/9 - 9/13 47% 48% 2% Kerry +1

Newsweek (1003 RV) 9/9 - 9/10 49% 43% 2% Bush +6

IBD/TIPP (674 LV) 9/7 - 9/12 46% 46% 3% TIE

Zogby (1018 LV) 9/8 - 9/9 46% 42% 2% Bush +4

Time (857 LV) 9/7 - 9/9 52% 41% 3% Bush +11

AP/Ipsos (899 LV) 9/7 - 9/9 51% 46% 1% Bush +5

FOX/Opin. Dyn. (1000 LV) 9/7 - 9/8 47% 43% 3% Bush +4

ABC News/Wash Post (LV) 9/6 - 9/8 52% 43% 2% Bush +9

Pew Research (745 LV) 9/8 - 9/10 54% 38% 2% Bush +16

CBS News (909 RV) 9/6 - 9/8 49% 42% 1% Bush +7

CNN/USAT/Gallup (778 LV) 9/3 - 9/5 52% 45% 1% Bush +7

Newsweek (1,008 RV) 9/2 - 9/3 52% 41% 3% Bush +11

[1billsfan]

Some pollsters only use landlines, and just as many use landlines and cell phones. Obviously, more people under 40 are cell phone only. The results are rather significant. Landline only polls (nine of them) have Obama up by an average of 5.1 points. Landline and cellphone polls (five of them) have Obama up by 9.4 points.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/cel...d.html#comments

 

 

The only problem with that is the young voters think they'll be able to "text" their votes in...

 

 

http://www.americanidol.com/

 

 

 

[ExiledInIllinois]

The only problem with that is the young voters think they'll be able to "text" their votes in...

 

 

http://www.americanidol.com/

 

 

 

 

Or a better Republican tactic:

 

"Because the lines will be so long... Republicans vote on TUE. the 4th and people voting for Democrats will be able to vote on Wed. the 5th."

 

Man... The Republicans have disenfranchisement down to an art form!