Buffalo one point favorites over Miami

[1billsfan]

It says that the Bills are still considered as a mediocre team by NFL linemakers and bettors. So in a sense they still have not "arrived" according to the people who lay down real money on games. If they were considered the real deal then this line would have the Bills as a 6 point favorite. This is a strange line. I know who's favored and by how much is not supposed to a major provider of motivation for players, but I think this week might be an exception. The players probably realize that there are a WHOLE lot of non-believers that the Bills are hardly worthy of that 5-1 record.

 

 

A few points I have about this game...

 

1. Dolphins are 7th in run defense and 27th in pass defense. Good thing we have a QB that can exploit that last stat.

2. When is our "BIG" kick return game ever going to make a comeback? Is it too much to ask to see it this week?

3. Ronnie Brown scares me. The guy is a very good runningback.

4. First division game, time for Buffalo to make a statement that there's a new sheriff in town.

[Captain Hindsight]

It says that the Bills are still considered as a mediocre team by NFL linemakers and bettors. So in a sense they still have not "arrived" according to the people who lay down real money on games. If they were considered the real deal then this line would have the Bills as a 6 point favorite. This is a strange line. I know who's favored and by how much is not supposed to a major provider of motivation for players, but I think this week might be an exception. The players probably realize that there are a WHOLE lot of non-believers that the Bills are hardly worthy of that 5-1 record.

 

 

A few points I have about this game...

 

1. Dolphins are 7th in run defense and 27th in pass defense. Good thing we have a QB that can exploit that last stat.

2. When is our "BIG" kick return game ever going to make a comeback? Is it too much to ask to see it this week?

3. Ronnie Brown scares me. The guy is a very good runningback.

4. First division game, time for Buffalo to make a statement that there's a new sheriff in town.

I think mostly that has alot to do with Miami beating NE* in NE* by 25 then stunning the chargers at home a week later. Miami is no slouch. As for motivation for players i hope they dont need the vegas line to get excited about playing Miami

[Ned Flanders]

3. Ronnie Brown scares me. The guy is a very good runningback.

That's the key...Bills stop Brown, they win. Brown runs wild, it will be a long afternoon. I share your concern.

[1billsfan]

I think mostly that has alot to do with Miami beating NE* in NE* by 25 then stunning the chargers at home a week later. Miami is no slouch. As for motivation for players i hope they dont need the vegas line to get excited about playing Miami

 

 

The Bills players will be no doubt very much motivated for their first divisional game, but I "bet" that they're going to have a little extra motivation after seeing that line which refuses to budge.

[SKOOBY]

It's kinda of stupid to think a 5-1 team playing a 2-4 team wouldn't be favored by more but add in the fact that the Bills have swept the fins for the past two years makes it even more silly.

 

Straight up, the Bills should win by 17 going away.

[Coach Tuesday]

This game is gonna be a real dogfight. I understand the oddsmakers' view. Miami is gonna be charged up for this and they'll bring a ton of heat on our o-line. It'll be a tough, tough game to win (and come out of injury-free). We clearly have more talent than Miami, and our coaching has had us prepared for every game this year save one. I love our chances, but I can definitely see us losing.

[loyal2dagame]

look for the fish to run the flying v offense against buffalo.

 

for those who dont know what that is, rent a copy of the mighty ducks.

 

miami's gimmic offense was cool the first time they ran it, but i'm thinking buffalo will be able to contain it. furthermore, if they insist on lining ol' noodle arm up as a wr, someone needs to lay a hard block on him. one that makes him say to the coaches "i'm not suited for real football, put me back in the pocket where i can't be touched w/o a penalty"

[nucci]

This game is gonna be a real dogfight. I understand the oddsmakers' view. Miami is gonna be charged up for this and they'll bring a ton of heat on our o-line. It'll be a tough, tough game to win (and come out of injury-free). We clearly have more talent than Miami, and our coaching has had us prepared for every game this year save one. I love our chances, but I can definitely see us losing.

So, you think we can win but you also think we can lose.

[devldog131]

look for the fish to run the flying v offense against buffalo.

 

for those who dont know what that is, rent a copy of the mighty ducks.

 

miami's gimmic offense was cool the first time they ran it, but i'm thinking buffalo will be able to contain it. furthermore, if they insist on lining ol' noodle arm up as a wr, someone needs to lay a hard block on him. one that makes him say to the coaches "i'm not suited for real football, put me back in the pocket where i can't be touched w/o a penalty"

 

 

I think that's the key. Pennington makes Miami's offense exponentially better than their other options. The first time he lines up wide, Donte Whitner needs to line up in press coverage on him and decleat him as soon as the ball is snapped. A DB can hit a WR as hard as he wants within 5 yds of the LOS as long as the ball isn't in the air. Donte needs to leave Chaaaad laying on the turf, seeing stars and convinced he is the quarterback of the NJ Jests.

[Coach Tuesday]

So, you think we can win but you also think we can lose.

 

Yup. I think this game is gonna be decided by a few key plays. A QB fumble, a deflected INT, a special teams TD. That sort of thing.

[Captain Hindsight]

I think that's the key. Pennington makes Miami's offense exponentially better than their other options. The first time he lines up wide, Donte Whitner needs to line up in press coverage on him and decleat him as soon as the ball is snapped. A DB can hit a WR as hard as he wants within 5 yds of the LOS as long as the ball isn't in the air. Donte needs to leave Chaaaad laying on the turf, seeing stars and convinced he is the quarterback of the NJ Jests.

He used to throw it to us all the time when that happened sounds like a good plan to me

[Coach Tuesday]

I think that's the key. Pennington makes Miami's offense exponentially better than their other options. The first time he lines up wide, Donte Whitner needs to line up in press coverage on him and decleat him as soon as the ball is snapped. A DB can hit a WR as hard as he wants within 5 yds of the LOS as long as the ball isn't in the air. Donte needs to leave Chaaaad laying on the turf, seeing stars and convinced he is the quarterback of the NJ Jests.

 

I like the concept but I think it should happen while Pennington is in the pocket, as a safety blitz early on in the game. Man that would fire me up.

[Philly McButterpants]

One of the links on the front page sez:

 

OVERALL ANALYSIS

 

The standings may say that the Bills are a first-place team and the Dolphins reside in last, but in terms of talent level, these two clubs are reasonably close. Buffalo has been more consistent in all phases because the Bills have been at it longer, whereas Miami is only six games into a rebuilding project that has yielded mixed results. But Jauron and company don't yet look like the kind of team that is going to go on the road and blow a lot of teams out, much less a division opponent that will be hungry to avoid a second straight home loss. Look for this one to be nip-and-tuck throughout, with Pennington providing the late-game magic that has been part of Edwards' makeup for most of the season.

 

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Dolphins 24, Bills 21

 

Really? I'll grant that the Phins have good running backs, but does any one in their right mind think that Miami's overal talent matches the Bills' at this point in time?

 

I can't get too upset over this since Miami ALWAYS get postive press . . Not sure why . . .

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

It really isn't about what the odds makers think, it's what people think. If the Bills were favored by more than 1, then all the money started to go to Miami. The bookies want it balanced 50/50 so make it attractive to bet the Bills.

 

That being said Miami and Parsells are a cozy pick. People who don't know much will bet on Miami as they think Parsells means magic so that reduces the points given by the Bill's. Admittedly, that somewhat contradicts my first point, but that is how many people view this.

 

In the NFL home field is worth 3 points so on a neutral field that says the Bills are 4 points better. I nthe NFL you don't see many games over 6 or 7 points, so when you consider Miami beat NE and the Chargers, the spread doesn't look too bad.

 

BTW, does anyone recall the spread for last weeks games agaisnt San Diego? I Don't recal lthe line??

[1billsfan]

It really isn't about what the odds makers think, it's what people think. If the Bills were favored by more than 1, then all the money started to go to Miami. The bookies want it balanced 50/50 so make it attractive to bet the Bills.

 

That being said Miami and Parsells are a cozy pick. People who don't know much will bet on Miami as they think Parsells means magic so that reduces the points given by the Bill's. Admittedly, that somewhat contradicts my first point, but that is how many people view this.

 

In the NFL home field is worth 3 points so on a neutral field that says the Bills are 4 points better. I nthe NFL you don't see many games over 6 or 7 points, so when you consider Miami beat NE and the Chargers, the spread doesn't look too bad.

 

BTW, does anyone recall the spread for last weeks games agaisnt San Diego? I Don't recal lthe line??

 

 

We all know how and why NFL spreads are made. My point was in regards to how this team is regarded by the NFL bettors and linesmakers...

 

 

"It says that the Bills are still considered as a mediocre team by NFL linemakers and bettors. So in a sense they still have not "arrived" according to the people who lay down real money on games."

[BuffaloWings]

I think mostly that has alot to do with Miami beating NE* in NE* by 25 then stunning the chargers at home a week later. Miami is no slouch. As for motivation for players i hope they dont need the vegas line to get excited about playing Miami

They shouldn't be motivated by a Vegas line, because the Vegas line has little to do with the actual game.

 

I would guess they want people to bet on the Bills, since many think the Bills would cover a 1.5-point spread.

[Williams+Williams+Williams]

This game is gonna be a real dogfight. I understand the oddsmakers' view. Miami is gonna be charged up for this and they'll bring a ton of heat on our o-line. It'll be a tough, tough game to win (and come out of injury-free). We clearly have more talent than Miami, and our coaching has had us prepared for every game this year save one. I love our chances, but I can definitely see us losing.

 

 

The bills of previous years would drop a game like this. I think this is a different team, with a different attitude, and a qb that gives provides the confidence to win.

 

 

We are going to lay the smack down in Miami. Lee Evans is going to scorch this team. (like always)

[Ozymandius]

It really isn't about what the odds makers think, it's what people think. If the Bills were favored by more than 1, then all the money started to go to Miami. The bookies want it balanced 50/50 so make it attractive to bet the Bills.

 

That being said Miami and Parsells are a cozy pick. People who don't know much will bet on Miami as they think Parsells means magic so that reduces the points given by the Bill's. Admittedly, that somewhat contradicts my first point, but that is how many people view this.

 

Actually, the public bettors are all over the Bills this week. And of course they are. We're a 5-1 team playing a 2-4 team and we just solidly beat another public team in SD. I don't know if you're in any kind of pick'em league like Yahoo, but just check the percentages. I'm sure 75 to 80% are picking the Bills. It's not the public that is keeping this line low, it's the sharp bettors with heavy money counteracting the nickel-and-dime public bets. Not to fear, though. The sharp bettors are only right 55-60% of the time themselves. I think they'll be wrong here and the Bills will win.

 

BTW, does anyone recall the spread for last weeks games agaisnt San Diego? I Don't recal lthe line??

 

It was SD -1, pick, or Buf -1. Basically a very similar situation to this week. Most of the public bettors were on SD at such a low line and after they blew out NE while the sharps were on the Bills.

[Williams+Williams+Williams]

I think that's the key. Pennington makes Miami's offense exponentially better than their other options. The first time he lines up wide, Donte Whitner needs to line up in press coverage on him and decleat him as soon as the ball is snapped. A DB can hit a WR as hard as he wants within 5 yds of the LOS as long as the ball isn't in the air. Donte needs to leave Chaaaad laying on the turf, seeing stars and convinced he is the quarterback of the NJ Jests.

 

 

I would like to see our defense start to punish some opposing players.