The end of the "we reached for Whitner" argument.

[BADOLBILZ]

Whitner made quite a few open-field tackles, which if he missed... would have been big gains. He had one of these great plays on sunday.

 

Yeah, he's been doing that all season. He hasn't caused turnovers so it can be easy to overlook, but he's prevented a number of big plays and killed many drives that might have changed the outcome of some close games. He's having a really good season, I hope he gets his hands on the football a little more so he doesn't get overlooked for Pro Bowl consideration.

[OCinBuffalo]

Where in the heck do you get the idea that Whitner can't cover? Did you bother to read the article? We held the Bolts to 191 net passing yards, 100 less than average, and half of what they normally score. If Whitner "couldn't cover", how the hell did that happen? Magic?

Oh and I forgot: we did that with our best cover CB and our starting NB on the sidelines. How many times did they throw at Mckelvin? Why? If Whitner couldn't cover...

[BillsVet]

He's the 4th Bills player in franchise history, and 1st defensive back ever, to record 100 tackles in his first 2 seasons.

 

The tackle stat continues to be overrated. Especially for a DB who lines up off the LOS 10 yards most of the time.

 

Whitner's open field tackle happened about fifty yards in front of me on Sunday. It was a great play made by an up and coming player. Without it, SD gets a first down and marches on. I've yet to see the pass coverage part of being a dominant safety.

 

The Bills went after him because they believed he gave them great versatility in coverage and run support. Lining him up against Gates two years ago versus Sunday was a huge difference. In fact, many teams are using their best cover guy against those TE's like Gates who are so dominant because they combine size and speed.

 

I'd like to see more game changing plays from Whitner before annointing him. I still believe that a dominant DT makes more of a difference regardless of era than does a dominant safety. The LOS is too important to put the phyiscally lacking players that Buffalo put out there in 06 and 07. It's kinda like putting a roof on the house when there are no doors, windows, and the basement is flooding.

[The Dean]

I agree, mostly with BADO's take on this.

 

I don't consider Whitner a reach, as the Bills had him targeted and were not likely to still get him, if they traded down. (It is very possible he would have gone to Detroit, the very next pick.)

 

I don't think it's useful to say "what if we picked player x, instead?" in these situations, as you can almost always find a player, drafted later, that did very well and maybe better than your pick. In most drafts, in any most rounds, most teams can probably fine one player that is arguably better than their choice, who was picked later (if at all).

 

I think the important question to ask is, "Is this guy the player we thought he was, when we decided to draft him where we drafted him?". I think it is clear the answer to that, for Whitner, is an overwhelming "yes". The Bills picked Whitner for several reasons, one of which they considered him to be a very safe pick. That is, they were convinced he would be a top safety and that his downside was low, in their eyes. At the time, the Bills couldn't afford to miss with that pick.

 

Now, what can be argued, I think, is the Bills didn't do as well on the Whitner/McCargo package, as we would have hoped for, as McCargo doesn't seem to be working out, here (for whatever reason). Of course, we can't really compare that to what they would have done, if they had picked Nagata and a different player next, as we have no idea who that second player would have been.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Yeah, they made a mistake on the McCargo deal. However I doubt Whitner still would have been available at #29, so to have got both players, you would to have trsded up higher and therefore given up more to get both. Could they have got a better player at #29 than they got? certainly, but it wouldn't have ben Whitner. And has been stated many times, you needed someone to trade with to pull it off.

[Steely Dan]

I told you it wouldn't end. Aye Yi Yi.

 

Why? My argument is based on the fact that the 7 teams in front of us could've picked Whitner and didn't = we stole from them.

 

But, for the sake of argument let's look at the next 7....

 

9 Detroit Lions Ernie Sims Linebacker

10 Arizona Cardinals Matt Leinart Quarterback

11 Denver Broncos (from St. Louis Rams) Jay Cutler Quarterback

12 Baltimore Ravens (from Cleveland Browns) Haloti Ngata Defensive tackle

13 Cleveland Browns (from Baltimore) Kamerion Wimbley Defensive end/Linebacker

14 Philadelphia Eagles Brodrick Bunkley Defensive tackle

15 St. Louis Rams (from Atlanta Falcons via Denver) Tye Hill

 

Sims? Meh. Lineart? Almost Bust. Cutler? We'll see, but no way he is as good a leader, and he's a friggin QB? Plus he can't keep his mouth shut("I have a stronger arm than Elway" ), plus he looked terrible against us and last game. Ngata? This is the only real argument, but when you have a NOW top 4 player on the board, you take him, regardless of position. Wimbley? I have no idea who he is or what he is doing, and that can't be good. Bunkley? Bust. Hill? Bust.

 

So, no, really no friggin way in hell are any of those guys better overall players than Whitner. None of them has had the net positive effect overall that he has, and most of them have done a hell of a lot worse.

 

Leadership is a big part of what a team should look for in a high pick player when a team is devoid of strong leadership.

 

Hey Dawgg Still think the Pats* D isn't old and/or their best, and final, shot wasn't last year?

 

Fred Jackson sure as hell played like a "great" player last week. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a look as an alternate pro-bowler. But, what does it matter? The fact is that he is a great part of this team, and we would certainly miss him if he was out.

 

My definition is the exact same that you hear everyone else use when the talk about the draft, so why is it suddenly only "convenient" when it is applied to Whitner?

 

Whitner made two game changing plays the first game he ever played. We are talking about a third year SS here, not a RB or a G, so let's realize that amount of mental work that goes into being elite at Whitner's position, especially in a Cover-2 based defense. We are coming up against teams/players Whitner has seen before, and let's see how he does. My bet is he's going to light them the f up.

 

WTF does McCargo have to do with any of this? So drafting McCargo makes drafting Whitner a bad idea? We drafted Whitner first! You have a lot of explaining to do on that one.

 

It gives those against the Whitner pick something to use against Whitner somehow. They can't make a strong case without it so they have to put it in.

[KD in CA]

Why? My argument is based on the fact that the 7 teams in front of us could've picked Whitner and didn't = we stole from them.

 

But, for the sake of argument let's look at the next 7....

 

9 Detroit Lions Ernie Sims Linebacker

10 Arizona Cardinals Matt Leinart Quarterback

11 Denver Broncos (from St. Louis Rams) Jay Cutler Quarterback

12 Baltimore Ravens (from Cleveland Browns) Haloti Ngata Defensive tackle

13 Cleveland Browns (from Baltimore) Kamerion Wimbley Defensive end/Linebacker

14 Philadelphia Eagles Brodrick Bunkley Defensive tackle

15 St. Louis Rams (from Atlanta Falcons via Denver) Tye Hill

 

Sims? Meh. Lineart? Almost Bust. Cutler? We'll see, but no way he is as good a leader, and he's a friggin QB? Plus he can't keep his mouth shut("I have a stronger arm than Elway" ), plus he looked terrible against us and last game. Ngata? This is the only real argument, but when you have a NOW top 4 player on the board, you take him, regardless of position. Wimbley? I have no idea who he is or what he is doing, and that can't be good. Bunkley? Bust. Hill? Bust.

 

So, no, really no friggin way in hell are any of those guys better overall players than Whitner. None of them has had the net positive effect overall that he has, and most of them have done a hell of a lot worse.

 

This is no way to analyze a draft. Don't you know you are supposed to find the one guy picked later who might be a better player and just blather on about how that's the guy the Bills should have picked?

 

 

I can't imagine what some of these posters would say to a stock broker. You should have moved my entire portfolio to Campbell Soup the day the market tanked!!!

 

Great posts OC -- thanks.

[Thoner7]

OC, your arguement is not focused correctly. If you want to argue that the player Whitener is NOW, was worth the 8th overall pick, I dont think there is a bills fan here that will argue with you. However, you need to take into account the draft, Whitners percieved value in the draft, and the percieved value of the other players. For whatever reason, Whitner was seen as a late 1st, top of the 2nd round safety. Ngata was seen as a top 15 player. In the end, the bills got Whitner and a DT, McCargo (bust).

 

I LOVE Whitner, but I am also a firm believer that we could have taken Ngata at 8, then traded up and taken Whitner in the same manner we did for McCargo. Hell he could have still been on the board at 26. That is the reason some fans will never feel that the Bills took the correct player. No fan thinks Whitner was not worth the 8th pick, just as no fan would take Whitner McCargo over Ngata Whitner...

[StupidNation]

1. This league passes the ball 65% of the time.

So Whitner has helped in the passing game? Where?

 

2. Your safety is your only hope in a Cover 2 of stopping the run, consistently, just look at the Colts with vs. without Bob Sanders.

Sanders would typically have a minimum of 2 INTs and PDs as well. Sanders is an exception and if you want to compare Sanders to Whitner be my guest, they are in different echelons, proving once again you don't have to draft a good SS in the 1st, as Sanders was in the 2nd.

 

3. The run is set up by the pass, not the other way around. Look at all the draws, and misdirection running plays this year. I have never seen as many as this year. Every single one of them set up by the pass.

4. Why do you think Miami's wildcat stuff was working so well? It makes big, fat, DTs who can't move irrelevant. This is a copy cat league, and the fat kids have been exposed. Next year everyone will be using that stuff, and it will be the SS, not the DT, whose job it is to stop it.

 

Your "3" is more of a comment you've already made and I've answered. Your "4" makes no sense because it exposes teams that have gone more to smaller DEs who get pushed around, and the 3-4 D. I've yet to see the Wildcat work against a good line with excellent DTs in a 4-3. It's a gimmick play that won't be around when LBs start smashing the QB.

 

Where in the heck do you get the idea that Whitner can't cover? Did you bother to read the article? We held the Bolts to 191 net passing yards, 100 less than average, and half of what they normally score. If Whitner "couldn't cover", how the hell did that happen? Magic?

 

With the exception of INT Rivers passed at will on us, same with the Cardinals. Both teams couldn't run the ball and Whitner was not part of that effort of stopping the run on either game. The teams that are the biggest threat to us are teams that take it to us with their passing game. Would you care to make your argument how Whitner has helped stopped the pass, because as you well know, teams pass 65% of the time.

 

Last time I checked 1 INT and 1 PD is so below average I don't know where to start, and with over 1/3rd of the season gone he has 0 INTs and 1 PD. That's WAY below average. Do you know what a good strong safety looks like in coverage? Maybe we've forgotten, but watch Sean Taylor clips before he died who played a similar role to Whitner, or look up guys like Polamalu, Dawkins, Sanders, or f'ing Harrison when he had wheels in his 20's.

[The Dean]

I LOVE Whitner, but I am also a firm believer that we could have taken Ngata at 8, then traded up and taken Whitner in the same manner we did for McCargo. Hell he could have still been on the board at 26. That is the reason some fans will never feel that the Bills took the correct player. No fan thinks Whitner was not worth the 8th pick, just as no fan would take Whitner McCargo over Ngata Whitner...

 

 

Given the discussion after the draft, that seems very unlikely. There was speculation (nothing more, of course) that Detroit was prepared to take him at #9. I think it is reasonable to assume that, if the Bills brain trust had him ranked as worth a #8 pick, other teams were likely to have coveted him, as well. I think there was virtually NO chance that he would have been available for the Bills later in the first round.

[Dibs]

...........That said, #8 overall is still very high to select a safety and safety is way down the list of positions of importance and traditionally a position teams find value at much later in the draft......

Traditionally is the key word here. Many fans have not caught up with the concept that Safety has become a very important and sought after position......therefore they are being drafted higher than they used to be......and are often drafted inside the top 10.

 

Over the last 7 drafts, the top 10 picks breaks down like this.....

QB 11

WR 10

OT 9

DE 9

DT 7

S 6

RB 6

CB 6

LB 4

TE 2

[Dibs]

......Last time I checked 1 INT and 1 PD is so below average.....

The rest of the league....players....coaches....analysts....all view him as a very good(though not elite) safety.....yet you persist in saying he is not.

Why is it that you believe with such conviction that he is a below average safety?

You can't be just basing things on stats(as we all know that they don't always reflect the true abilities of a player). You seem to want him to be sub-par for some reason......I don't understand it.

[OCinBuffalo]

The rest of the league....players....coaches....analysts....all view him as a very good(though not elite) safety.....yet you persist in saying he is not.

Why is it that you believe with such conviction that he is a below average safety?

You can't be just basing things on stats(as we all know that they don't always reflect the true abilities of a player). You seem to want him to be sub-par for some reason......I don't understand it.

Because he still has hope that he won't end up looking terribly wrong about Whitner. But like I said ---> he should abandon all hope and accept the reality.

[Captain Hindsight]

OC, your arguement is not focused correctly. If you want to argue that the player Whitener is NOW, was worth the 8th overall pick, I dont think there is a bills fan here that will argue with you. However, you need to take into account the draft, Whitners percieved value in the draft, and the percieved value of the other players. For whatever reason, Whitner was seen as a late 1st, top of the 2nd round safety. Ngata was seen as a top 15 player. In the end, the bills got Whitner and a DT, McCargo (bust).

 

I LOVE Whitner, but I am also a firm believer that we could have taken Ngata at 8, then traded up and taken Whitner in the same manner we did for McCargo. Hell he could have still been on the board at 26. That is the reason some fans will never feel that the Bills took the correct player. No fan thinks Whitner was not worth the 8th pick, just as no fan would take Whitner McCargo over Ngata Whitner...

By mel kiper.... who doesnt work for an NFL team for a reason

[KD in CA]

People really need to stop evaluating Whitner through the lens of McCargo being a disastrous decision. You can play 'what if' all day long but it doesn't change the fact that they made a good pick and got an excellent player.

 

Ideally the Bills would have drafted Whitner at #8 and done nothing until their 2d round pick.

[OCinBuffalo]

So Whitner has helped in the passing game? Where?

Oh jeez, I don't know. Why don't we start with: Whitner playing 3 different positions this Sunday, FS, CB, NB, none of which are his normal spot, with Youboty and McGee on the bench, while the bills hold the Bolts to 100 less yards passing than they average per game. So I guess McKelvin was the reason they didn't get so many passes, right?

 

I was at the game, I didn't miss a snap, and I am telling you McKelvin was picked on most of the game. In fact, he's the reason they got as many passing yards as they did. Don't get me wrong, he was awful close, but not close enough.

 

I answered your question, now answer mine: How the hell has Whitner, playing three different positions, and making plays all over the field at them, NOT helped in the passing game?

Sanders would typically have a minimum of 2 INTs and PDs as well. Sanders is an exception and if you want to compare Sanders to Whitner be my guest, they are in different echelons, proving once again you don't have to draft a good SS in the 1st, as Sanders was in the 2nd.

Again, it's back to 1985 for you, huh? You and Mike Ditka would be best buds, you could go out together wearing your parachute pants and listening to REO Speedwagon.

Your "3" is more of a comment you've already made and I've answered. Your "4" makes no sense because it exposes teams that have gone more to smaller DEs who get pushed around, and the 3-4 D. I've yet to see the Wildcat work against a good line with excellent DTs in a 4-3. It's a gimmick play that won't be around when LBs start smashing the QB.

Then you haven't watched the Wildcat at all apparently. Almost all of the runs, most of the TD runs, that came out of the formation were designed(there was one that was bounced outside because they fed up the play) to go a or b gap = right where the DTs are. Few were to the outside. The whole point of it is to take advantage of a fat DT moving the wrong way or attempting to hold his ground, by adding another blocker to misdirect him or pull and nail him/trap him, or the LB he is trying to protect. Instead of the D having an extra guy(because the QB is there) it's all even up at the LOS. The secondary point of it is to ignore the DEs, or neutralize their pass rush and/or speed, because everything is misdirected outside and then run inside.

 

Oh, and Miami used it quite effectively against the Bolts DTs, who are widely regarded as excellent, and who play in a 4-3. You might want to go over to NFL.com and watch the film, it's fairly well done.

With the exception of INT Rivers passed at will on us, same with the Cardinals. Both teams couldn't run the ball and Whitner was not part of that effort of stopping the run on either game. The teams that are the biggest threat to us are teams that take it to us with their passing game. Would you care to make your argument how Whitner has helped stopped the pass, because as you well know, teams pass 65% of the time.

I already have on multiple occasions. You still have yet to explain how a team that passes for 300 yards, scores 30 a game, and routinely takes it to other teams via the pass = the Bolts, was held to 191 passing yards with two of our starters on the bench. I know, it was all McKelvin Dude, read the article I posted already. Whitner was all over the field, and he is the MAIN reason they didn't get anywhere near their averages in the passing game. The other reason was Mitchell.

Last time I checked 1 INT and 1 PD is so below average I don't know where to start, and with over 1/3rd of the season gone he has 0 INTs and 1 PD. That's WAY below average. Do you know what a good strong safety looks like in coverage? Maybe we've forgotten, but watch Sean Taylor clips before he died who played a similar role to Whitner, or look up guys like Polamalu, Dawkins, Sanders, or f'ing Harrison when he had wheels in his 20's.

All of those guys were nowhere near Whitner starting their 3rd season, so cut the crap. And, all those guys play in Zone-Blitz schemes, which means that the SS has a lot more freedom to cherry pick, and to blitz, because everybody else is taking most of the primary responsibility. In our D, Whitner is primarily responsible for a lot more than they are, so he doesn't get to take as many chances. The simple fact is that Polamalu gets to run around free because he's hardly ever responsible for coverage, or for the run game. Whitner is responsible for both. And, those teams have all had superior LBs to us except for this year, so it's hardly a fair comparison. You give Whitner the free reign that those guys have, and the LB corps, and he easily gets the same stats they do.

 

But that's the whole point. Stats aren't the game, big plays on third down, or, as has been said above, stopping a decent play before it turns into a gash or a TD are stats that are just as important, but less "glamorous", I guess.

[YOOOOOO]

LOL at Whitner is below average in pass coverage......especially after this game....he played 3 different positions....you think theyd put him at CB/NB if he couldnt cover....?? are you F-ing serious??

 

 

Watch the Bills/Redskins game last year....check out the first half....then see what Fewell decided to change in the 2nd half....then check the results.....night and day.....

 

 

 

check it....get back to me

[The Dean]

LOL at Whitner is below average in pass coverage......especially after this game....he played 3 different positions....you think theyd put him at CB/NB if he couldnt cover....?? are you F-ing serious??

 

 

Watch the Bills/Redskins game last year....check out the first half....then see what Fewell decided to change in the 2nd half....then check the results.....night and day.....

 

 

 

check it....get back to me

 

 

You are making the assumption that Stupid could understand what he was watching. I have learned that he probably doesn't have that capability.

[BuffaloBill]

You might as well be still arguing that The Surge didn't work. It's time to deal with the reality that The Surge did work and drafting Donte Whitner at 8 in 2006 was not only not a reach, it's lining up to be a steal.

 

Let's start with this right here. A "great" player makes those around him better. How about a player that can replace those around him due to matchup or injury and improve the play at that position? Strike one.

 

Let's look at who was drafted ahead of Whitner:

1 Houston Texans Mario Williams Defensive end

2 New Orleans Saints Reggie Bush Running back

3 Tennessee Titans Vince Young Quarterback

4 New York Jets D'Brickashaw Ferguson Offensive tackle

5 Green Bay Packers A. J. Hawk Linebacker

6 San Francisco 49ers Vernon Davis Tight end

7 Oakland Raiders Michael Huff Safety

 

Who of the above is a better leader than Whitner? Who is, pound for pound, playing better at their position? Who is having a better effect on the players around them? Who can step in and play 3 other positions on the field? Strike two.

 

Hawk, Davis, and Huff? It's not even a debate. I can see Ferguson, maybe, but Whitner's intangibles and versatility means he wins. Young? Please. Reggie Bush is starting to look like a 3rd down scat back. Marshawn has the same # of TDs, and 100 more yards on the ground. Mario Williams I can see, but again, he loses in terms of the overall player.

 

Ferguson, Williams and even Bush are debatable, but even if you throw them in we still got the 4th best guy in the draft at the #8 slot, and that is a steal any way you cut it. 4 spots in the top ten = (to move from 8 to 4) costs you a #18 2nd round draft pick, or 2 #14 3rd round picks. Draft value chart here So, like I said, Whitner is an absolute steal.

 

Finally, the other players ahead of Whitner have all probably peaked. They are what they are and they are as good as they are going to get. They average safety doesn't really hit their stride until 5-6 years in the league, and that means Whitner is only going to get better. I'm sure Vince Young is going to make a big comeback... Strike three.

 

3 strikes you're out. Here endeth the argument. Deal with it. And for those of you still trying to talk about Ferguson, please explain how the hell we were supposed to do a deal with a division rival over the guy they wanted.

 

It's over. Be happy we didn't listen to you, and be happy that Marv Levy was running this team.

 

 

nuff said. Have nothing else to add

[Dibs]

You might as well be still arguing that The Surge didn't work. It's time to deal with the reality that The Surge did work and drafting Donte Whitner at 8 in 2006 was not only not a reach, it's lining up to be a steal......

I don't know about a steal but he has certainly shown himself to be worthy of the #8 selection....

 

I figure the best way to see if this is the case is to look at his draft peers throughout a reasonable amount of time.

I have selected a 10 year span of picks 6-10(the immediate 2 selections around the #8 pick). I chose years 1989-1998 as these players have pretty much had full(or close) careers......and it is as close to 2006 as allows.

 

Bolded = Probowl achieved within first 3 seasons

Red = Bust(only 4 productive seasons as starter or less.....for any team)

Brackets = (Number of starts in first 2 seasons)(number of probowls).....BTW, DW had 29 starts in his first 2 seasons.

 

RESULTS:-

Of these 50 players drafted:-

18 were total busts….36%

7 made the probowl within their first 3 years in the league….14%

(FWIW, 11 out of the 35 players(31%) from drafts 1999-2005 made the probowl within their first 3 years in the league. Total would be 18 of 85 players….21%)

22 overall had a probowl season in their career….44%

13 had multiple probowl seasons in their careers….26%

 

19 had 28 or more starts within their first 2 seasons….38%

 

DW is certainly above the curve at this point in his career.

 

Broderick Thomas(15)

Tim Worley(22)

Burt Grossman(31)

Sammie Smith(28)

Eric Hill(30)

Mark Carrier(32)(3)

Andre Ware(1)

Chris Singleton(15)

Richmond Webb(30)(7)

Ray Agnew(19)

Eric Swann(14)(2)

Charles McRae(20)

Antone Davis(30)

Stanley Richard(28)

Herman Moore(12)(4)

David Klingler(17)

Troy Vincent(27)(5)

Bob Whitfield(16)(1)

Tommy Vardell(22)

Ray Roberts(32)

Eric Curry(24)

Curtis Conway(19)

Willie Roaf(32)(11)

Lincoln Kennedy(19)(3)

Jerome Bettis(28)(6)

Trent Dilfer(18)(1)

Bryant Young(28)(4)

Sam Adams(12)(3)

Antonio Langham(32)

Jamir Miller(9)(1)

Kevin Carter(32)(2)

Mike Mamula(29)

Joey Galloway(32)

Kyle Brady(27)

J.J. Stokes(8)

Lawrence Phillips(20)

Terry Glenn(24)(1)

Tim Biakabutuka(6)

Rickey Dudley(31)

Willie Anderson(26)(4)

Walter Jones(28)(8)

Ike Hilliard(18)

James Farrior(17)(1)

Tom Knight(19)

Chris Naeole(16)

Grant Wistrom(16)

Kyle Turley(31)(1)

Greg Ellis(29)(1)

Fred Taylor(21)(1)

Duane Starks(14)