Dibs Posted October 17, 2008 Posted October 17, 2008 Clearly our current FO believes strongly that you can acquire OL in FA. That's why it hasn't been a major perogative for them....... If not too sure of this.....I tend to think that in 2006 the new regime wanted to see what was on the roster. The whole team needed a drastic overhaul and waited a year with stopgap starters to see what our 'potential' players could show. From this they discovered a gem in Peters(holdout situation ignored) and the full realization that we were totally devoid of talent apart from that. With so many areas to fill.....and the knowledge of importance of the OL.....they paid $$$ for Dockery & Walker(obviously feeling it the best chance of building a good OL in short time). With Peters, Dockery, Walker & Butler(whom they obviously felt was panning out, hence new contract)......I can see legit reasons why we have not drafted high on the OL in the last 3 drafts. *I still wanted them to draft Alberts though* BTW, Bill from NYC is 100% correct. There are virtually no HOFer level OTs from the modern era that were not drafted inside the top 8. Also, the hit/miss ratio for 1st round OGs is the best out of any position......they virtually never bust out.
thebandit27 Posted October 17, 2008 Posted October 17, 2008 To Bill from NYC: Bogus theory, huh? Let’s go back ten years and see…Ready? You pick the 1st round booms and busts… 1999: John Tait, Matt Stinchcomb, Luke Pettigout, L.J. Shelton, Aaron Gibson I count 1 above-average tackle (Tait), 2 journeymen (Shelton and Pettigout), and 2 guys that never had a career. 2000: Chris Samuels, Stocker McDougle, Chris McIntosh I see 1 stud (Samuels) and 2 unarguable busts 2001: Leonard Davis, Kenyatta Walker, Jeff Backus I’ve got 1 average tackle (Backus), 1 non-factor at tackle that had to be moved to guard (Davis), and 1 bust (Walker) 2002: Mike Williams, Bryant McKinnie, Levi Jones, Marc Columbo I label 1 above-average tackle (Jones), 2 average tackles (McKinnie and Columbo), and 1 bust (Williams) 2003: Jordan Gross, George Foster, Kwame Harris My take? 1 above-average tackle (Gross) and 2 busts that lost their jobs within 2 years 2004: Robert Gallery, Vernon Carey Here we go, 1 big bust (Gallery) and 1 average tackle (Carey) 2005: Jammal Brown and Alex Barron This one’s easy, 1 stud (Brown) and 1 bust (Barron) 2006: D’Brickashaw Ferguson An average lineman at best, watch him against a solid pass rusher and he gets beat more often than not. I’ll stop here, since evaluating anyone from last year or this year’s draft proves futile. That makes 23 picks, and 6 great offensive tackles. It would appear then, based on this information, that for every solid tackle drafted in the first round, there are 3 lackluster players selected. As far as “virtually every great” LT being a top 10 pick, let’s take a look. Current LTs that were first rounders include: Jake Long, D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Marvel Smith, Joe Thomas, Levi Jones, Duane Brown, Branden Albert, Ryan Clady, Orlando Pace, Walter Jones, Joe Staley, Jordan Gross, Jammal Brown, Sam Baker, Bryant McKinnie, Jeff Backus, John Tait, Flozell Adams, Tra Thomas, and Chris Samuels. That makes 20 of 32 (62.5 percent), which can hardly be considered “virtually every”. Among them, I count 7 former Pro-Bowlers (L. Jones, Pace, W. Jones, Brown, Adams, Thomas, and Samuels). The non-first-rounders? Jason Peters, Matt Light, Jared Gaither, Michael Roos, Tony Ugoh, Khalif Barnes, Paul McQuistan, Marcus McNeil, Mike Gandy, Chad Clifton, Donald Penn, and David Diehl. Among these 12, you have 4 former Pro-Bowlers (Peters, Light, Clifton, and Diehl). Looks like it’s roughly 1/3 from each group. Suffice it to say, there is far more evidence to support that great LTs come from all rounds of the draft than the contrary. What say you?
Ramius Posted October 17, 2008 Posted October 17, 2008 Also, the hit/miss ratio for 1st round OGs is the best out of any position......they virtually never bust out. There's a correlation, but is there causation? Most guards aren't drafted until the 20's at the earliest, meaning they are going to a playoff team. Obvisouly this means they will have a good supporting cast, as well as a good team around them, and they may not need to start right away. The OGs drafted later on are usually stepping into a much better situation that earlier picks. And in the NFL, a player's situation is everything.
DaGimp Posted October 17, 2008 Posted October 17, 2008 They must draft the best Center in this upcoming draft...................
JStranger76 Posted October 17, 2008 Posted October 17, 2008 DaGimp, with you on that. One of the scenarios that has been going though my sick mind is to actually bring back Preston, say goodbye to Fowler, and target Alex Mack with our 1st round pick. I'm not saying have Mack learn behind Preston so don't everybody all freak out at once, but just for a little insurance in case Mack needs a little time (like the bye week or after 4 games) to get up to speed. Center is one of 4 out of 6 "MUST UPGRADES" that need to happen for this team to become a true contender IMO. The other 5 are TE, DT, DE, OLB, and RG. If we can come out of this offseason with 4 of those 6 upgraded (2 free agents, two drafted), I'll feel real good about being a true championship contender.
DaGimp Posted October 17, 2008 Posted October 17, 2008 DaGimp, with you on that. One of the scenarios that has been going though my sick mind is to actually bring back Preston, say goodbye to Fowler, and target Alex Mack with our 1st round pick. I'm not saying have Mack learn behind Preston so don't everybody all freak out at once, but just for a little insurance in case Mack needs a little time (like the bye week or after 4 games) to get up to speed. Center is one of 4 out of 6 "MUST UPGRADES" that need to happen for this team to become a true contender IMO. The other 5 are TE, DT, DE, OLB, and RG. If we can come out of this offseason with 4 of those 6 upgraded (2 free agents, two drafted), I'll feel real good about being a true championship contender. Yep, I'd go C, DT, TE, OLB
JStranger76 Posted October 17, 2008 Posted October 17, 2008 That sounds good. DL is one of those hit or miss positions so (although expensive) I'd like to get a proven guy (DT or DE)in free agency (or Stroud-like trade) if possible.
Ramius Posted October 17, 2008 Posted October 17, 2008 One thing you need to ask yourself, is how well can a rookie step in on the OL and play at a high level. The Bills 1st rounder should be used on someone that can contribute right away. I'd rather (if possible) get a good OC in FA, and then draft an LB (to replace crowell) or even a DL. Where the bills have been missing the boat on OL is not in round 1, but in rounds 2 and 3, where the real values are.
Bill from NYC Posted October 17, 2008 Posted October 17, 2008 One thing you need to ask yourself, is how well can a rookie step in on the OL and play at a high level. The Bills 1st rounder should be used on someone that can contribute right away. I'd rather (if possible) get a good OC in FA, and then draft an LB (to replace crowell) or even a DL. Nick Mangold did just that. It isn't impossible, and I disagree with the philosophy that a rookie must automatically step in. If this is so, one would think that you are furious at the McKelvin pick, right? I think that the Bills have been losing because they built their team on the appropriately named "secondary," which is useless if nobody can tackle and nobody can block. Let's get back to the 06 draft R-Man. Whitner is starting to teeter upon being what I consider to be worthy of a #8 selection. This makes him a good player, but not necessarily the right pick for the Bills in terms of what they gave up. Again, please let's assume that Levy was offered another 2nd to drade down a few spots (and I heard him say that he was offered more than just a 2nd). Still, let's run with just another 2nd. This would have given the Bills a 1st (approx. #14) 2 2nds, and 2 3rds. They got Youboty in the 3rd, so that wouldn't have changed. They got Simpson in the 4th, so that wouldn't have changed. So, they would have come out of day 1 with a 1st, 2 2nds, 1 3rd, and Youboty. Instead, after starting with a 1st, 2nd and an extra 3rd, they ended up with Whitner, McCargo and Youboty, this on a team with no blocking. Day 2 saved the 06 draft for the Bills. Simpson is starting to play well imo, and Butler.....well, he was a good pick for a 5th. Elison is a fine backup as well. In any event, while it could have clearly been far worse, excuse me if I am not all that impressed with day 1 of 06. Day 1 of 07 was a masterpiece.
Dibs Posted October 17, 2008 Posted October 17, 2008 There's a correlation, but is there causation? Most guards aren't drafted until the 20's at the earliest, meaning they are going to a playoff team. Obvisouly this means they will have a good supporting cast, as well as a good team around them, and they may not need to start right away. The OGs drafted later on are usually stepping into a much better situation that earlier picks. And in the NFL, a player's situation is everything. There could be a truth to what you are saying though the same logic should apply to all other positions chosen in that area of the draft(20+) but the bust rate for them is just as high. Another thought.....OGs chosen in the 1st round might still be considered a 'luxury' pick, one that is only made(by most teams) when they have filled the rest of their roster(though I think this is changing....and rightly so). This still doesn't explain fully why the bust rate is sooooo low though. I tend to think that perhaps OGs talent can be better evaluated coming out of College than most(if not all) other positions.
Dibs Posted October 17, 2008 Posted October 17, 2008 (edited) To Bill from NYC: Bogus theory, huh? Let’s go back ten years and see…Ready? You pick the 1st round booms and busts… 1999: John Tait, Matt Stinchcomb, Luke Pettigout, L.J. Shelton, Aaron Gibson I count 1 above-average tackle (Tait), 2 journeymen (Shelton and Pettigout), and 2 guys that never had a career. 2000: Chris Samuels, Stocker McDougle, Chris McIntosh I see 1 stud (Samuels) and 2 unarguable busts 2001: Leonard Davis, Kenyatta Walker, Jeff Backus I’ve got 1 average tackle (Backus), 1 non-factor at tackle that had to be moved to guard (Davis), and 1 bust (Walker) 2002: Mike Williams, Bryant McKinnie, Levi Jones, Marc Columbo I label 1 above-average tackle (Jones), 2 average tackles (McKinnie and Columbo), and 1 bust (Williams) 2003: Jordan Gross, George Foster, Kwame Harris My take? 1 above-average tackle (Gross) and 2 busts that lost their jobs within 2 years 2004: Robert Gallery, Vernon Carey Here we go, 1 big bust (Gallery) and 1 average tackle (Carey) 2005: Jammal Brown and Alex Barron This one’s easy, 1 stud (Brown) and 1 bust (Barron) 2006: D’Brickashaw Ferguson An average lineman at best, watch him against a solid pass rusher and he gets beat more often than not. I’ll stop here, since evaluating anyone from last year or this year’s draft proves futile. That makes 23 picks, and 6 great offensive tackles. It would appear then, based on this information, that for every solid tackle drafted in the first round, there are 3 lackluster players selected. As far as “virtually every great” LT being a top 10 pick, let’s take a look. Current LTs that were first rounders include: Jake Long, D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Marvel Smith, Joe Thomas, Levi Jones, Duane Brown, Branden Albert, Ryan Clady, Orlando Pace, Walter Jones, Joe Staley, Jordan Gross, Jammal Brown, Sam Baker, Bryant McKinnie, Jeff Backus, John Tait, Flozell Adams, Tra Thomas, and Chris Samuels. That makes 20 of 32 (62.5 percent), which can hardly be considered “virtually every”. Among them, I count 7 former Pro-Bowlers (L. Jones, Pace, W. Jones, Brown, Adams, Thomas, and Samuels). The non-first-rounders? Jason Peters, Matt Light, Jared Gaither, Michael Roos, Tony Ugoh, Khalif Barnes, Paul McQuistan, Marcus McNeil, Mike Gandy, Chad Clifton, Donald Penn, and David Diehl. Among these 12, you have 4 former Pro-Bowlers (Peters, Light, Clifton, and Diehl). Looks like it’s roughly 1/3 from each group. Suffice it to say, there is far more evidence to support that great LTs come from all rounds of the draft than the contrary. What say you? *Bills comment wasn't on the bust rate percentage.....it was on the concept that you don't see that high caliber LT develop in the NFL unless they have a top 8 pedigree(I change to top 8 since it fits better than top 10).* It has only been in very recent years that the bust rate for highly drafted OTs has increased.......here is the list..... Every OT drafted inside the Top 8...1993-2007(draft position first in brackets)......(probowl appearances in brackets after) (8)Willie Roaf(11) (2)Tony Boselli(5) (4)Jonathan Ogden(11) (1)Orlando Pace(7) (6)Walter Jones(8) (7)Kyle Turley(1) (3)Chris Samuels(5) (2)Leonard Davis(1) (4)Mike Williams (7)Bryant McKinnie (8)Jordan Gross (2)Robert Gallery (4)D'Brickashaw Ferguson (3)Joe Thomas(1) (5)Levi Brown I think perhaps you've misunderstood the benchmark that was being put forward.......that being GREAT LTs. In recent times there has been IMO only 5 great LTs(Jonathan Ogden, Orlando Pace, Tony Boselli, Walter Jones, Willie Roaf).....maybe 6 if you include Samuels as well. All 6 were drafted within the top 8. The point being that if you want a superstar LT you (pretty much) need to draft an LT inside the top 8. This does not correlate the same to any other position(that I can see.....and I've done a lot of looking). Why do you want a superstar LT? Because they help teams win games & go far in the playoffs. Ignoring Boselli(shortened career).....and Samuels(I'm not convinced that he is in the same class).... If you look at the 4 dominating LTs in recent times.... Jonathan Ogden Orlando Pace Walter Jones Willie Roaf .....2 have got SB rings.....1 helped get their team to a SB.....and 1 didn't get there. That's a very solid result. Edited October 17, 2008 by Dibs
Sisyphean Bills Posted October 18, 2008 Posted October 18, 2008 Every OT drafted inside the Top 8...1993-2007(draft position first in brackets)......(probowl appearances in brackets after)(8)Willie Roaf(11) (2)Tony Boselli(5) (4)Jonathan Ogden(11) (1)Orlando Pace(7) (6)Walter Jones(8) (7)Kyle Turley(1) (3)Chris Samuels(5) (2)Leonard Davis(1) (4)Mike Williams (7)Bryant McKinnie (8)Jordan Gross (2)Robert Gallery (4)D'Brickashaw Ferguson (3)Joe Thomas(1) (5)Levi Brown And the worst of these, by far, was Mike Williams. (Although, Ferguson is nipping at his heels as a Sponge Tackle Rag Bob.)
thebandit27 Posted October 20, 2008 Posted October 20, 2008 *Bills comment wasn't on the bust rate percentage.....it was on the concept that you don't see that high caliber LT develop in the NFL unless they have a top 8 pedigree(I change to top 8 since it fits better than top 10).* It has only been in very recent years that the bust rate for highly drafted OTs has increased.......here is the list..... Every OT drafted inside the Top 8...1993-2007(draft position first in brackets)......(probowl appearances in brackets after) (8)Willie Roaf(11) (2)Tony Boselli(5) (4)Jonathan Ogden(11) (1)Orlando Pace(7) (6)Walter Jones(8) (7)Kyle Turley(1) (3)Chris Samuels(5) (2)Leonard Davis(1) (4)Mike Williams (7)Bryant McKinnie (8)Jordan Gross (2)Robert Gallery (4)D'Brickashaw Ferguson (3)Joe Thomas(1) (5)Levi Brown I think perhaps you've misunderstood the benchmark that was being put forward.......that being GREAT LTs. In recent times there has been IMO only 5 great LTs(Jonathan Ogden, Orlando Pace, Tony Boselli, Walter Jones, Willie Roaf).....maybe 6 if you include Samuels as well. All 6 were drafted within the top 8. The point being that if you want a superstar LT you (pretty much) need to draft an LT inside the top 8. This does not correlate the same to any other position(that I can see.....and I've done a lot of looking). Why do you want a superstar LT? Because they help teams win games & go far in the playoffs. Ignoring Boselli(shortened career).....and Samuels(I'm not convinced that he is in the same class).... If you look at the 4 dominating LTs in recent times.... Jonathan Ogden Orlando Pace Walter Jones Willie Roaf .....2 have got SB rings.....1 helped get their team to a SB.....and 1 didn't get there. That's a very solid result. I believe that the fundamental difference in our evaluations is your definition of "great". How many tackles in the NFL today would you say are "great"? At one point, you could've said Walter Jones and Orlando Pace, but anyone that's watched them play this year knows that's not true anymore, so let's look at it objectively. How many LT's are "great"? Honestly, you're talking about (at best) the following players, in no particular order: Jason Peters, Joe Thomas (gets the benefit of the doubt since his QB is so bad this year), Michael Roos, Marcus McNeil, Jammal Brown, Chad Clifton, Tra Thomas, David Diehl, and Chris Samuels. I base these selections off of a combination of factors including sacks given up, team record, rushing touchdowns, and player/coach all-pro voting. Nine players appear on the "great" list, and of them, there are two, only two, that were top 8 picks. Of the rest, you have 3 first round picks (Brown, Clifton, and Thomas), 2 second round picks (Roos and McNeil), one fifth round pick (Diehl), and one undrafted free agent. Regardless of whether or not you agree with my list of "great" tackles, examining the rest of the league will yield a similar result in terms of percentages. The fact remains that, you do not have to draft a tackle in the top 8 to get a "great" tackle. The best tandem of bookend tackles in the game right now is playing in Tennessee (Roos and David Stewart), and neither of them were first round picks. In fact, neither of them played at major college programs. I staunchly stand by my statement that a great tackle can be found in any round of the draft, and there are plenty of teams out there proving it.
Dibs Posted October 21, 2008 Posted October 21, 2008 I believe that the fundamental difference in our evaluations is your definition of "great". How many tackles in the NFL today would you say are "great"? At one point, you could've said Walter Jones and Orlando Pace, but anyone that's watched them play this year knows that's not true anymore, so let's look at it objectively. How many LT's are "great"? Honestly, you're talking about (at best) the following players, in no particular order: Jason Peters, Joe Thomas (gets the benefit of the doubt since his QB is so bad this year), Michael Roos, Marcus McNeil, Jammal Brown, Chad Clifton, Tra Thomas, David Diehl, and Chris Samuels. I base these selections off of a combination of factors including sacks given up, team record, rushing touchdowns, and player/coach all-pro voting. Nine players appear on the "great" list, and of them, there are two, only two, that were top 8 picks. Of the rest, you have 3 first round picks (Brown, Clifton, and Thomas), 2 second round picks (Roos and McNeil), one fifth round pick (Diehl), and one undrafted free agent. Regardless of whether or not you agree with my list of "great" tackles, examining the rest of the league will yield a similar result in terms of percentages. The fact remains that, you do not have to draft a tackle in the top 8 to get a "great" tackle. The best tandem of bookend tackles in the game right now is playing in Tennessee (Roos and David Stewart), and neither of them were first round picks. In fact, neither of them played at major college programs. I staunchly stand by my statement that a great tackle can be found in any round of the draft, and there are plenty of teams out there proving it. Agreed......we seem to be on different pages in regards to the definition of 'great'. I am talking about(as was Bill from NYC)....and I don't know how to word this apart from.....'great' LTs.....HOF level LTs......those that consistently get to the probowl nearly every season they play.....dominate throughout their careers.....leaders of their positions. You pretty much do have to draft a LT in the top 8 to get a truly great one. Sure, you can get very good ones elsewhere.....but if you want a 'great' one.....and many believe they are well worth having....you have to look inside the top 8 of the draft. Your list of 8......plus my HOFer level LTs mentioned earlier. (draft position first in brackets)......(probowl appearances in brackets after)....bold are the greats(potential great) (1)Orlando Pace(7) - 7 probowls in 11 seasons (2)Tony Boselli(5) - 5 probowls in 7 seasons(with his last season being ended at week 3 with injury) (3)Joe Thomas(1) - 1 probowl in 1 season.....looks like another potential HOFer caliber LT selected in the top 8 (3)Chris Samuels(5) - 5 probowls in 8 seasons (4)Jonathan Ogden(11) - 11 PBs in 12 seasons (6)Walter Jones(8) - 8 PBs in 11 seasons (8)Willie Roaf(11) - 8 PBs in 13 seasons (11)Tra Thomas(3) - 3 PBs in 10 seasons.....good but not great. (13)Jammal Brown(1) - 1 PB in 3 seasons.....very good obviously.....great? (41)Michael Roos(0) - 3 seasons....certainly not great (44)Chad Clifton(1) - 1 PB in 8 seasons.....certainly not great. (50)Marcus McNeil(2) - 2 probowls in 2 seasons.....Only real potential to break the top 8 rule(apart from Peters but....homer glasses and all ). (160)David Diehl(0) - 5 seasons.....certainly not great (-)Jason Peters(1) - Might be a variant to the top 8 rule.....our opinion on this may well be tinted due to being fans. Marcus McNeil(and Peters if we're lucky) is the only player that looks like he might break the top 8 rule. The other guys are good/very good.
Sisyphean Bills Posted October 21, 2008 Posted October 21, 2008 Agreed......we seem to be on different pages in regards to the definition of 'great'. I am talking about(as was Bill from NYC)....and I don't know how to word this apart from.....'great' LTs.....HOF level LTs......those that consistently get to the probowl nearly every season they play.....dominate throughout their careers.....leaders of their positions. You pretty much do have to draft a LT in the top 8 to get a truly great one. Sure, you can get very good ones elsewhere.....but if you want a 'great' one.....and many believe they are well worth having....you have to look inside the top 8 of the draft. Your list of 8......plus my HOFer level LTs mentioned earlier. (draft position first in brackets)......(probowl appearances in brackets after)....bold are the greats(potential great) (1)Orlando Pace(7) - 7 probowls in 11 seasons (2)Tony Boselli(5) - 5 probowls in 7 seasons(with his last season being ended at week 3 with injury) (3)Joe Thomas(1) - 1 probowl in 1 season.....looks like another potential HOFer caliber LT selected in the top 8 (3)Chris Samuels(5) - 5 probowls in 8 seasons (4)Jonathan Ogden(11) - 11 PBs in 12 seasons (6)Walter Jones(8) - * PBs in 11 seasons (8)Willie Roaf(11) - 8 PBs in 13 seasons (11)Tra Thomas(3) - 3 PBs in 10 seasons.....good but not great. (13)Jammal Brown(1) - 1 PB in 3 seasons.....very good obviously.....great? (41)Michael Roos(0) - 3 seasons....certainly not great (44)Chad Clifton(1) - 1 PB in 8 seasons.....certainly not great. (50)Marcus McNeil(2) - 2 probowls in 2 seasons.....Only real potential to break the top 8 rule(apart from Peters but....homer glasses and all ). (160)David Diehl(0) - 5 seasons.....certainly not great (-)Jason Peters(1) - Might be a variant to the top 8 rule.....our opinion on this may well be tinted due to being fans. Marcus McNeil(and Peters if we're lucky) is the only player that looks like he might break the top 8 rule. The other guys are good/very good. Any post that attempts to marginalize Walter Jones as anything less than a great LT can be folded up into a little wad of bits and stuffed in the recycle bin. 'Nuff said.
Fewell733 Posted October 21, 2008 Posted October 21, 2008 offensive lineman often aren't that good till their late 20s, by that time their rookie contract has expired. The Bills seem to think that if you do your homework in FA and target guys that you really think can play well at the pro-level you can build an offensive line and let others pay for players growing pains. Our line is young, yet Walker and Walker are just entering their prime years.
DanInSouthBuffalo Posted October 21, 2008 Posted October 21, 2008 Hopefully, what this era of the Bills will bring through good drafts and keeping players is stability so one they might draft a player at a position like OL. The 2009 draft so far looks like a draft where the Bills could really use a prime candidate at center.
OCinBuffalo Posted October 21, 2008 Posted October 21, 2008 I think all of you are forgetting one major mitigating factor to any discussion of a so-called "pattern", correlation, or causation: The massive changes in the front office and coaching staff. If you want to use stats of any kind, there's no way in hell you treat data from the last 8 years as though it's all the same. Due to that, you really can't have a serious discussion re: trends, etc., because there entirely too many variables that have changed, never mind the reality of just how much of a mess Donahoe created here. Four things were true as a result of Marv Levy/Dick Jauron taking over: 1. This was a 5-11 team who was absolutely awful almost everywhere on the roster. 2. Due to #1, Levy had to bring in stopgap players(Fowler, Reyes, Price, Triplett, Royal etc.) all over the lineup just to make this team somewhat competitive. Parcells has done the exact same thing in Miami, but I'm sure he was a genius for doing it, but Levy was an idiot. Right? All stopgap players have since been removed, through solid drafting/FA signings, except Fowler and Royal. 3. There was an offensive line EMERGENCY on this team, thus Levy had to take drastic measures to resolve it immediately. 4. There was an defensive line EMERGENCY on this team, which Levy didn't resolve, but Brandon sure as hell did, immediately. You simply cannot draft your way out of emergency status on either line. Period. Now that the O/D line emergency has been resolved, for the most part = you can't say either line is terrible anymore, they are at least in the top half of the league, it will be interesting to see what happens going forward. The point is: you don't get into O/D line emergency status in one or two years, you do it by neglecting it for 4-5 years. At the same time, you don't draft in a vacuum = other teams get to pick too, and you have to draft for an entire team, not just one position. When you are as bad as we were, you don't have the luxury of a long term drafting strategy, you have to maximize the value of every pick you take. Levy/Brandon have done nothing but draft solid starters/potential starters in their drafts. Period. You can try to talk about McCargo, but then ask yourself why the Colts were willing to trade for him. So, now that things appear to have stabilized with this team, it appears we are finally on a level playing field. IMO, that means we can now start to adopt a more general, long term drafting strategy. IMO, we need to start focusing on the lines, especially the 2 remaining "stopgap" positions, C and TE, thus preventing the emergencies, and leave the other positions for FA. I am comfortable with Hamdan being the #2 QB on this team, we have plenty of WR and RB talent. We could use another LB, but our secondary seems set for a long time. Given all of that, NOW and only now, we can finally start focusing on the lines in the draft.
Coach Tuesday Posted October 21, 2008 Posted October 21, 2008 I think all of you are forgetting one major mitigating factor to any discussion of a so-called "pattern", correlation, or causation: The massive changes in the front office and coaching staff. If you want to use stats of any kind, there's no way in hell you treat data from the last 8 years as though it's all the same. Due to that, you really can't have a serious discussion re: trends, etc., because there entirely too many variables that have changed, never mind the reality of just how much of a mess Donahoe created here. Four things were true as a result of Marv Levy/Dick Jauron taking over: 1. This was a 5-11 team who was absolutely awful almost everywhere on the roster. 2. Due to #1, Levy had to bring in stopgap players(Fowler, Reyes, Price, Triplett, Royal etc.) all over the lineup just to make this team somewhat competitive. Parcells has done the exact same thing in Miami, but I'm sure he was a genius for doing it, but Levy was an idiot. Right? All stopgap players have since been removed, through solid drafting/FA signings, except Fowler and Royal. 3. There was an offensive line EMERGENCY on this team, thus Levy had to take drastic measures to resolve it immediately. 4. There was an defensive line EMERGENCY on this team, which Levy didn't resolve, but Brandon sure as hell did, immediately. You simply cannot draft your way out of emergency status on either line. Period. Now that the O/D line emergency has been resolved, for the most part = you can't say either line is terrible anymore, they are at least in the top half of the league, it will be interesting to see what happens going forward. The point is: you don't get into O/D line emergency status in one or two years, you do it by neglecting it for 4-5 years. At the same time, you don't draft in a vacuum = other teams get to pick too, and you have to draft for an entire team, not just one position. When you are as bad as we were, you don't have the luxury of a long term drafting strategy, you have to maximize the value of every pick you take. Levy/Brandon have done nothing but draft solid starters/potential starters in their drafts. Period. You can try to talk about McCargo, but then ask yourself why the Colts were willing to trade for him. So, now that things appear to have stabilized with this team, it appears we are finally on a level playing field. IMO, that means we can now start to adopt a more general, long term drafting strategy. IMO, we need to start focusing on the lines, especially the 2 remaining "stopgap" positions, C and TE, thus preventing the emergencies, and leave the other positions for FA. I am comfortable with Hamdan being the #2 QB on this team, we have plenty of WR and RB talent. We could use another LB, but our secondary seems set for a long time. Given all of that, NOW and only now, we can finally start focusing on the lines in the draft. That's a good analysis for sure. Although I wonder why it couldn't have been the other way around? Couldn't they have focused primarily on the lines in the first few drafts, and then start to stock up on character/role players/skill positions? Would the result have been much different? I think quality along the lines minimizes weaknesses in other areas. You can have sub-par cornerbacks if you have great passrushers. You can have average linebackers if your tackles clog up the middle. You can have a productive third-round running back if your guards and center are maulers, etc. They did it the other way around, and obviously we're all pleased with where we are today, but I wonder if it could've been inverted, ya know?
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