TPS Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 Pop goes the speculative oil bubble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 Pop goes the speculative oil bubble! But, but, but, why hasn't my gas dropped 50%? BTW I yearn for the good ole days with the price of oil dictated the direction of the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drnykterstein Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 but... DRILL HERE DRILL NOW DRILL BABY DRILL If oil prices are low, how are we supposed to ruin the continental shelf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 I'm sure it has nothing to do with forecasts of a global recession and a rise in the US$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted October 16, 2008 Author Share Posted October 16, 2008 I'm sure it has nothing to do with forecasts of a global recession and a rise in the US$. The run up in prices coincides precisely when HFs and IBs started pouring billions into futures. Their "anslysts" were yapping up the probablility of $200 prices to get more suckers in. As I said last June/July, we'd probably see it unwind within 6 months, and one of the reasons I gave was because Americans would adjust behavior based upon $4/gal gas. Now a recession. Demand is playing a role, but I believe that it was speculation that drove 50-60% of the price increase; you disagree. It's not like you haven't been wrong lately... Btw, just finished a conversation with a friend who manages a HF, and he told me about a very recent conference call with other managers, and one of the things they talked about was "unwinding their oil positions..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 The run up in prices coincides precisely when HFs and IBs started pouring billions into futures. Their "anslysts" were yapping up the probablility of $200 prices to get more suckers in. As I said last June/July, we'd probably see it unwind within 6 months, and one of the reasons I gave was because Americans would adjust behavior based upon $4/gal gas. Now a recession. Demand is playing a role, but I believe that it was speculation that drove 50-60% of the price increase; you disagree. It's not like you haven't been wrong lately... Other than last year's budget projection, show where I was wrong. Btw, just finished a conversation with a friend who manages a HF, and he told me about a very recent conference call with other managers, and one of the things they talked about was "unwinding their oil positions..." I wonder if he also talked about unwinding their debt & equity positions too, to meet the redemption calls. No one ever claimed that speculators didn't impact oil prices. My contention was that they had 10%-15% impact, and market factors were behind the rest. Again, if speculators really tried to corner the market, it would have been very easy for the oil users to squeeze them out in the spot markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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