molson_golden2002 Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/a...road-ahead.aspx Perhaps the CBS poll that shows Barack Obama with a 14-point lead among likely voters (12 points when third-party candidates are included) is a modest outlier. But if so, John McCain has more and more outliers that he has to explain away these days. There are now no fewer than seven current national polls that show Obama with a double-digit advantage: Newsweek (+11), ABC/Post (+10), Democracy Corps (+10), Research 2000 (+10), Battleground (+13), Gallup (+10 using their Likely Voter II model) and now this CBS News poll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan_in_raleigh Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/a...road-ahead.aspx I still wonder if many of those who will say to a poller that they will vote for Obama really will do it when it comes down to it. The only Poll that matters is the one on election day. One thing clear about all of this is if mcCain does manage a miracle comeback ya really have to wonder about his management skills given how he has let his campaign go insane and off message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 Ummm...the Democrats have already stated it will be a landslide. But thanks for keeping it on the front page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PastaJoe Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 I think you have to make the odds Obama -5. If the polls get within 5 points, then there's a chance McCain could win due to the Bradley effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Coli Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 I think you have to make the odds Obama -5. If the polls get within 5 points, then there's a chance McCain could win due to the Bradley effect. Yeah, I've seen the reports suggesting the Bradley effect really doesn't do much now, but when you've got the GOP caging voters, purging rolls, and a-holes carrying monkey dolls into Palin/McCain rallies, I don't think you can feel safe unless Obama's polling well above 5 points over his opposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boomer860 Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 Lets see now wasnt Gore and Kerry ahead in the polls, at that time but then were cheated out of was rightly thiers The dove flies at midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elegantelliotoffen Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 Lets see now wasnt Gore and Kerry ahead in the polls, at that time but then were cheated out of was rightly thiers The dove flies at midnight Not really http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/polls/index.html http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/resources/polls.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Coli Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 Lets see now wasnt Gore and Kerry ahead in the polls, at that time but then were cheated out of was rightly thiers The dove flies at midnight No. At 21 days out from the election, Bush was up by 2 points nationally in 2004, and 4 points nationally in 2000, and both Gore and Kerry were behind in the national polls on election day. Polling trends in '08, vs. '04 and '00 (via Pollster.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elegantelliotoffen Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 No. At 21 days out from the election, Bush was up by 2 points nationally in 2004, and 4 points nationally in 2000, and both Gore and Kerry were behind in the national polls on election day. Polling trends in '08, vs. '04 and '00 (via Pollster.com) And I also doubt that Kerry and Gore were consistently polling ahead of Bush in the battleground states like Obama is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boomer860 Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 Not really http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/polls/index.html http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/resources/polls.html Anyway all the non racists blacks will vote for Obama , thats probably the difference . "Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? The Shadow do" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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