Marshawn, Do you see what I see with this guy?

[UncleBuff]

Hello TBD folks. I have been visiting the site for some time now and finally decided to join the converstion.

I am thrilled with the 08 team. We have a team on the rise and can expect to be among the top 8 teams for the next few years and with some draft help may be able to contend for a title in the very near future. HOWEVER, my main concern is with Lynch. I just dont see 1st round talent with this guy. I think he has gone over 100 yds maybe 2 times and seems to have a ton of 2 yard carries. It is certainly not for lack of effort. He gives 110% But his avg gain is way less than 4 and good backs average over 4. Im thinkin a guy of this caliber is easily found in the 3rd and 4th round.

With the SD game coming up, if we had a back that could take 30 carries and give us a big edge in time of possesion we could win the game by keeping Rivers and Gates and Tomlinson off the field. I just dont think Lynch is the kind of back that gives us that capability. Aside from character issues I dont see Lynch as any improvement from Willis.

Is anyone else disappointed with this guy like I am?

 

edited : But his avg gain is way less than 3, meant 4

[The Dean]

Welcome.

 

Uh...no, I think Lynch is a monster. I will refrain from further comment, as you are a newbie.

[Phlegm Alley]

I think a lot of it has to do with the line and Lynch's vision. Sometimes there may be a cutback lane and he may not see it, but once he does get into the open field, he is pretty elusive.

 

I don't know if you knew this or not, but he leads the NFL with more carries of 10 + yards. He also would have gone over 100 yards in the ST Louis game, but had 50 yards called back due to penalties.

 

I think it is only a matter of time before we see Lynch break out in a BIG way and I think by seasons end, he'll have 1,300-1,400 yards rushing along with 12 TDs and 50-60 receptions for another 400 yards and another TD.

[Lori]

"Average gain way less than 3"? Not in the stats I'm looking at. 4.0 last year, 3.5 this year (with at least two 20-yarders called back). Right down there with Joseph Addai, Fred Taylor, Steven Jackson, Jamal Lewis, Laurence Maroney, Reggie Bush, and some guy named McGahee ... fellow first-round picks, all.

 

Even if he averages 5 ypc, a back needs 20 carries to hit 100 yards. Lynch has topped 20+ just once this year, against Oakland.

 

My overall thoughts on No. 23? I'll leave the off-the-field stuff off the field. Kid runs hard on every play, gets hit in the backfield far too often (through no fault of his own), converts most of his short-yardage attempts (unlike his predecessor), and the team wouldn't have four wins without him.

[Matt in KC]

Hello TBD folks. I have been visiting the site for some time now and finally decided to join the converstion.

I am thrilled with the 08 team. We have a team on the rise and can expect to be among the top 8 teams for the next few years and with some draft help may be able to contend for a title in the very near future. HOWEVER, my main concern is with Lynch. I just dont see 1st round talent with this guy. I think he has gone over 100 yds maybe 2 times and seems to have a ton of 2 yard carries. It is certainly not for lack of effort. He gives 110% But his avg gain is way less than 3 and good backs average over 4. Im thinkin a guy of this caliber is easily found in the 3rd and 4th round.

With the SD game coming up, if we had a back that could take 30 carries and give us a big edge in time of possesion we could win the game by keeping Rivers and Gates and Tomlinson off the field. I just dont think Lynch is the kind of back that gives us that capability. Aside from character issues I dont see Lynch as any improvement from Willis.

Is anyone else disappointed with this guy like I am?

Welcome.

 

Lynch is currently averaging 3.5 yards per attempt, about the same as Stven Jackson, Addai, Forte, E James, Brian Westbrook (all averaging 3.6 yards per attempt)., and a bit better than McGahee, Jamal Lewis, Reggie Bush, Hightower (3.1-3.4).

 

I share some of your concerns, but don 't blame Lynch much for our struggles to consistently gain yards on run plays. From the comfort of my couch and a position of relative ignorance about such things, I'd say the blame is something like: 40% run blocking by the line (performance), 30% O-line coaching, 25% play calling/audibling to get a favorable call vs the D being presented (and this should improve as Trent gains experience) and 5% Lynch looking to break a longer play rather than trying to hit a small hole hard (though he often does).

[Matt in KC]

I should have known if I composed my post leisurely over coffee someone would make my points before I submitted mine. Obviously I agree with Lori's points....

[Magic54]

The only thing that scares me about Lynch is his longevity. That kid runs with so much desire, and works so hard for every yard he gets, that I worry about his body holding up. I think Lynch is unquestionably a first round talent. It would be nice to see him hit the line of scrimmage and have any kind of a hole to run through. Here's to hoping that Sean Kugler's statements about improved focus on run-blocking during the bye week manifest themselves in the weeks to come!

[BillsZubaz]

Lynch is a monster and a much better back that McGahee if for no other reason than you know you will get 100% from him.

 

Our Offensive line has not been doing Lynch many favors. Also, sharing time with Freddy Jackson is taking some of his yardage away..

[The Dean]

Lynch is a monster and a much better back that McGahee if for no other reason than you know you will get 100% from him.

 

Our Offensive line has not been doing Lynch many favors. Also, sharing time with Freddy Jackson is taking some of his yardage away..

 

 

The time share with Freddie is a double edged sword, of course. I think Lynch would be a better back with more carries. Many RBs need 20+ carries to excel. I think Lynch has shown he can excel with fewer carries, but I think he would benefit from the extra work.

 

OTOH, given the state of the Bills run-blocking, and the kind of running game they have chosen, Lynch would take even more pounding than he already has.

 

I think Lynch and Jackson would both benefit from running more out of 3 WR, spread wide, formations.

[phillyrich]

Hey there fellow Bills fans. Philly Rich here (and BTW GO PHILLIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!) I would like to make some comments about Marshawn and the run game in general.

 

1.) Melvin Fowler is a weak link. We need an upgrade here and fast. He is responsible for blocking calls. He is terrible at calling out run blocking resposibilities and is to small. If Melvin does not call the right blocking scheme, the five guys up front will not communicate cohesivley. That is true for pass blocking as welll

 

2.) Marshawn's vision. I should say lack there of. I wish that we could have access to film from behind the offense on running plays. I will tell you there are holes to run through. I strongly believe Marshawn either doesnt see them are just runs to the wrong hole. Clinto Portis broke off five yard runs last week through tiny, tiny holes available. Do we thingk Marshawn would have made the same cut back decision that Fred Jackson did when FJ ran for the 20 yard TD vs the ST Louis Rams????????? FJ saw a hole, cutback hard, and burst throw...........................

 

3.) O-Line coach. I guess nothing to say here. the five guys up front need to buckle the chin straps and jock straps a lot tighter and show some attitude moving forward.

[BillsVet]

Hey there fellow Bills fans. Philly Rich here (and BTW GO PHILLIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!) I would like to make some comments about Marshawn and the run game in general.

 

1.) Melvin Fowler is a weak link. We need an upgrade here and fast. He is responsible for blocking calls. He is terrible at calling out run blocking resposibilities and is to small. If Melvin does not call the right blocking scheme, the five guys up front will not communicate cohesivley. That is true for pass blocking as welll

 

 

Taking this issue a bit further, Lynch is a between the tackles runner. He's not a burner, but in Buffalo's case, he's not asked to be one. Unfortunately, the interior OL, specifically at C and RG, are fair or below average. Combine those aspects, and I believe that's why his ypc isn't as high as some would like. Brad Butler sometimes appears pushed back, and Fowler certainly is. It's been a problem since 2007 when this OL was formed. If they cannot run block at this point, they need a change in personnel.

 

This is not to say Lynch is perfect, but he's a Marion Barber type who is every bit as good as the latter. I dare say with a better center (Alex Mack, please) he could become a bigger weapon.

 

 

Joe D. said something to the effect that Lynch is the hardest runner he's ever seen. From a HOF OG, that's saying something.

[d_wag]

i'd like to see the bills try more power sweeps with marshawn......the inside game isn't working well (thanks mostly to fowler) but when marshawn can get some space on a 1 on 1, his straight arm is exceptional......the line isn't doing him any favors

 

also like to see them run more out of 3 wide sets with no FB - need to spread out the D more

[phillyrich]

D_WAG, great point. I agree that we need to run out of multiple offensive formations: 3 WR's, 4 WR's, Twin backs, whatever. It is easier to run and pass vs any defense when the defense has to account for the potnetial of multiple plays they believe may be conducted on any given play. Why oh why should we make it hard on ourselves and run from a formation the entire world knwos a running play is coming from. Example: JP Losman's QB sneak from the spread offense within the 5 yards line.

[The_Philster]

Joe D. said something to the effect that Lynch is the hardest runner he's ever seen. From a HOF OG, that's saying something.

especially considering he blocked for a 2000 yard runner

[buffaloboyinATL]

Aside from the offensive line issues, also keep in mind that we are clearly choosing to rest Lynch as much as possible and utilizing Jackson in relief. This even includes basically removing him from a game after the 3rd quarter this year when he could have easily stayed in and surpassed 100 yards. He needs to be judged by the times he gets us the hard yards through individual effort not by his stats and the end of a game, which can be deceiving.

[Tortured Soul]

"Average gain way less than 3"? Not in the stats I'm looking at. 4.0 last year, 3.5 this year (with at least two 20-yarders called back). Right down there with Joseph Addai, Fred Taylor, Steven Jackson, Jamal Lewis, Laurence Maroney, Reggie Bush, and some guy named McGahee ... fellow first-round picks, all.

 

Even if he averages 5 ypc, a back needs 20 carries to hit 100 yards. Lynch has topped 20+ just once this year, against Oakland.

 

My overall thoughts on No. 23? I'll leave the off-the-field stuff off the field. Kid runs hard on every play, gets hit in the backfield far too often (through no fault of his own), converts most of his short-yardage attempts (unlike his predecessor), and the team wouldn't have four wins without him.

I think you cherry-picked that list a bit. Of the 13 teams with winning records, only one, the Patriots with Sammy Morris, have a leading rusher with a lower ypc than Lynch. And only two others, the Cards with James and the Bears with Forte, have leading rushers under 4.0 ypc. The Ravens' leading rusher, McClain, is over 4.2.

 

Now compare Lynch to Jackson. Jackson, for the second straight year, is a full ypc ahead of Lynch. And even though there's a perception that Jackson is a smaller, change of pace back, he's listed at the same weight as Lynch (I'm sceptical of that, but it's true). Jackson doesn't seem to take the same beating as Lynch, and, unlike Lynch, he hasn't missed a game due to injury. Yes, maybe if Jackson were put in on more 3rd and 1s his ypc would drop, but maybe not.

 

And finally, just by the eyeball test, hasn't Jackson seemed like a more effective runner this year?

[Tortured Soul]

The time share with Freddie is a double edged sword, of course. I think Lynch would be a better back with more carries. Many RBs need 20+ carries to excel. I think Lynch has shown he can excel with fewer carries, but I think he would benefit from the extra work.

 

OTOH, given the state of the Bills run-blocking, and the kind of running game they have chosen, Lynch would take even more pounding than he already has.

 

I think Lynch and Jackson would both benefit from running more out of 3 WR, spread wide, formations.

Doesn't this argument cut both ways?

[Tcali]

I see the main problem as our mediocre O line. I just don't see a big weakness in Marshawn's game. Yes better playcalling could spring him more...-But should we have to rely on trickery? Our O line doesn't run block well or pass block well.Other than that they are doing a good job.

[BillsZubaz]

The time share with Freddie is a double edged sword, of course. I think Lynch would be a better back with more carries. Many RBs need 20+ carries to excel. I think Lynch has shown he can excel with fewer carries, but I think he would benefit from the extra work.

 

OTOH, given the state of the Bills run-blocking, and the kind of running game they have chosen, Lynch would take even more pounding than he already has.

 

I think Lynch and Jackson would both benefit from running more out of 3 WR, spread wide, formations.

 

I could not agree with you more regarding the formations they run out of. I see both backs having a great year if we begin running out of what are typically passing sets. Regarding sharing time, look for Lynch to have a huge second half to the year because he should still be relatively fresh as compared to other "feature" backs..

[Adam]

I think a lot of it has to do with the line and Lynch's vision. Sometimes there may be a cutback lane and he may not see it, but once he does get into the open field, he is pretty elusive.

 

I don't know if you knew this or not, but he leads the NFL with more carries of 10 + yards. He also would have gone over 100 yards in the ST Louis game, but had 50 yards called back due to penalties.

 

I think it is only a matter of time before we see Lynch break out in a BIG way and I think by seasons end, he'll have 1,300-1,400 yards rushing along with 12 TDs and 50-60 receptions for another 400 yards and another TD.

I think it has a lot to do with the line- there may be a cutback lane, but with the decelleration, then re-acceleration of cutting back, you may end up with less yards, because the lane probably won't be sustained long enough- or he just doesn't have confidence that it will be.

 

I really think that the offensive and defensive lines will be a focal point this offseason. We are a couple OLs and DL's away from being a top team....I just hope Edwards recovers from the concussion