GG Posted October 10, 2008 Posted October 10, 2008 What happens if the DOW stays up 175 today? Should I still panic or save some panic for tomorrow? You'll have two days to think it over.
Chef Jim Posted October 10, 2008 Posted October 10, 2008 You'll have two days to think it over. I suggest everyone take the weekend to think about anything other than the market. Come on folks we are in the middle of the Great Sports Overlap!
Chilly Posted October 10, 2008 Posted October 10, 2008 I suggest everyone take the weekend to think about anything other than the market. Come on folks we are in the middle of the Great Sports Overlap! 11AM CST tomorrow, ABC.
meazza Posted October 10, 2008 Posted October 10, 2008 Fortunately, I've been all cash for three weeks. Had I not liquidated my positions, I'd be down about 35%. (Note: I'm not claiming to be a market timer. Just a bit lucky.) Right now, I'm looking buying the same stocks I just sold, since I like the long-term prospects of the companies...and maybe throw some financial stocks in to the mix (American Express, Capital One - which is showing some interesting strength right now, Wells Fargo) on the principle that if everyone's panic-selling the entire sector, there's got to be some good deals. I expect to do quite well in a 3-5 year time-frame. So personally...I'm happy. Besides guaranteed investments, I'm holding onto a few hundred shares of my employers stock which is low and a few thousand of semi-risky RRSP which is also pretty low. I'm looking at some Canadian oil producers (i.e. Encana) who are historically low.
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted October 11, 2008 Posted October 11, 2008 I figured you were. Talk to me about Conseco. Thinking of dropping a few thousand on it, but I'd like to know a bit more first.
Chef Jim Posted October 11, 2008 Posted October 11, 2008 Talk to me about Conseco. Thinking of dropping a few thousand on it, but I'd like to know a bit more first. Well seeing they file BK during the last bear market due to their sketchy annuity sales I wouldn't want anything to do with them.
TPS Posted October 11, 2008 Author Posted October 11, 2008 Here's an interesting bit of news on what may be driving some of the selling: margin calls If so, it's not just panic herd mentality driving this.
Chef Jim Posted October 11, 2008 Posted October 11, 2008 Here's an interesting bit of news on what may be driving some of the selling: margin calls If so, it's not just panic herd mentality driving this. I've always assumed that margin calls had a lot to do with this. That was the big reason for the crash of '29 when margin requirement was only 10%.
DC Tom Posted October 11, 2008 Posted October 11, 2008 Here's an interesting bit of news on what may be driving some of the selling: margin calls If so, it's not just panic herd mentality driving this. Personally, I consider that part of fear-driven herd mentality. If you're selling at any price because you're freaked out, or because you have to meet a margin call...does it make a difference to the market?
meazza Posted October 11, 2008 Posted October 11, 2008 Personally, I consider that part of fear-driven herd mentality. If you're selling at any price because you're freaked out, or because you have to meet a margin call...does it make a difference to the market? I think it does. Most stock prices now are far from their true fundamentals because the average fear driven investor doesn't want to hold on to equity. On the other hand, the hedge fund is not fear driven but knows that he has no choice to sell since he doesn't have the cash flow to meet the margin calls.
TPS Posted October 11, 2008 Author Posted October 11, 2008 Personally, I consider that part of fear-driven herd mentality. If you're selling at any price because you're freaked out, or because you have to meet a margin call...does it make a difference to the market? Good point. Are the IBs raising the margin requirements to generate more capital for themselves for fear of their own demise, or to protect against the demise of the HFs? Ironically, their behavior may bring about what they are trying to protect against--the failure of both parties!
bills_fan Posted October 13, 2008 Posted October 13, 2008 I'd still be on the sidelines, until the WaMu CDS settled on 10/23. Today is bull. Setting up for the big one later this week? Hope not. I'd rather not be the first one in...be careful here. The second mouse usually gets the cheese, cause the first is caught by the trap.
Chef Jim Posted October 13, 2008 Posted October 13, 2008 I'd still be on the sidelines, until the WaMu CDS settled on 10/23. Today is bull. Setting up for the big one later this week? Hope not. I'd rather not be the first one in...be careful here. The second mouse usually gets the cheese, cause the first is caught by the trap. I love watching market timers try to make money.
bills_fan Posted October 13, 2008 Posted October 13, 2008 I love watching market timers try to make money. Not a timer...all in on the 401(k). Just thinking about putting some cash to work in a few weeks.
TPS Posted October 13, 2008 Author Posted October 13, 2008 I'd still be on the sidelines, until the WaMu CDS settled on 10/23. Today is bull. Setting up for the big one later this week? Hope not. I'd rather not be the first one in...be careful here. The second mouse usually gets the cheese, cause the first is caught by the trap. I'd agree. While the Lehman CDS settled Friday, the payouts will occur over the next several weeks. Anyone who has access to the Fed shouldn't have a problem, so watch out for a few hedge funds and insurance companies.
erynthered Posted October 13, 2008 Posted October 13, 2008 Not a timer...all in on the 401(k). Just thinking about putting some cash to work in a few weeks. So what do you think about the possibility of a Chrysler GM merger? Good? Bad? Who gives a shiit? Rumour has it at about 50/50.
Chef Jim Posted October 13, 2008 Posted October 13, 2008 So what do you think about the possibility of a Chrysler GM merger? Good? Bad? Who gives a shiit? Rumour has it at about 50/50. Kind of like that '70's commerial. Two great pieces of crap that are greater pieces of crap when put together.
taterhill Posted October 13, 2008 Posted October 13, 2008 I love watching market timers try to make money. worked pretty well on my 2 1/2 bagger on MS....
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