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TPS

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Fortunately, I've been all cash for three weeks. Had I not liquidated my positions, I'd be down about 35%. (Note: I'm not claiming to be a market timer. Just a bit lucky.) Right now, I'm looking buying the same stocks I just sold, since I like the long-term prospects of the companies...and maybe throw some financial stocks in to the mix (American Express, Capital One - which is showing some interesting strength right now, Wells Fargo) on the principle that if everyone's panic-selling the entire sector, there's got to be some good deals. I expect to do quite well in a 3-5 year time-frame.

 

So personally...I'm happy. :lol:

 

Besides guaranteed investments, I'm holding onto a few hundred shares of my employers stock which is low and a few thousand of semi-risky RRSP which is also pretty low. I'm looking at some Canadian oil producers (i.e. Encana) who are historically low.

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Here's an interesting bit of news on what may be driving some of the selling:

 

margin calls

If so, it's not just panic herd mentality driving this.

 

Personally, I consider that part of fear-driven herd mentality. If you're selling at any price because you're freaked out, or because you have to meet a margin call...does it make a difference to the market?

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Personally, I consider that part of fear-driven herd mentality. If you're selling at any price because you're freaked out, or because you have to meet a margin call...does it make a difference to the market?

 

I think it does. Most stock prices now are far from their true fundamentals because the average fear driven investor doesn't want to hold on to equity. On the other hand, the hedge fund is not fear driven but knows that he has no choice to sell since he doesn't have the cash flow to meet the margin calls.

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Personally, I consider that part of fear-driven herd mentality. If you're selling at any price because you're freaked out, or because you have to meet a margin call...does it make a difference to the market?

Good point. Are the IBs raising the margin requirements to generate more capital for themselves for fear of their own demise, or to protect against the demise of the HFs? Ironically, their behavior may bring about what they are trying to protect against--the failure of both parties!

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I'd still be on the sidelines, until the WaMu CDS settled on 10/23. Today is bull. Setting up for the big one later this week? Hope not.

 

I'd rather not be the first one in...be careful here. The second mouse usually gets the cheese, cause the first is caught by the trap.

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I'd still be on the sidelines, until the WaMu CDS settled on 10/23. Today is bull. Setting up for the big one later this week? Hope not.

 

I'd rather not be the first one in...be careful here. The second mouse usually gets the cheese, cause the first is caught by the trap.

 

I love watching market timers try to make money. :(

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I'd still be on the sidelines, until the WaMu CDS settled on 10/23. Today is bull. Setting up for the big one later this week? Hope not.

 

I'd rather not be the first one in...be careful here. The second mouse usually gets the cheese, cause the first is caught by the trap.

I'd agree. While the Lehman CDS settled Friday, the payouts will occur over the next several weeks. Anyone who has access to the Fed shouldn't have a problem, so watch out for a few hedge funds and insurance companies.

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