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Will 2008 be a Realigning Election?


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Thoughts?

 

 

Gone soon will be that indelible image of the 2004 electoral map of the US which had the whole west coast, most of the Great Lake states and the Eastern seaboard Blue with everything else a big Red.

 

 

It will continue like this thanks to changing demographics. North Carolina and Virginia have changed that much in the last four years alone that they are in play now. The Gorgia of today has changed in the respect that it bears little resemblence to what it was 8 years ago, let alone 20 or 30.

 

 

Can we even think about Texas in the blue 8 years from now?

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well then enlighten me

 

Party ID in Texas isn't nearly that far off, it's been around a 10% difference between responders to the first part of the question. The gap becomes even more narrow when you take into account leaners to be about equal.

 

Do us all a favor and look up the term at Wiki and explain it to us. Jeezus!

 

How bout you go open a textbook instead? You might realize that realigning elections are based off of coalition groups, which haven't changed all that much this election.

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Party ID in Texas isn't nearly that far off, it's been around a 10% difference between responders to the first part of the question. The gap becomes even more narrow when you take into account leaners to be about equal.

 

 

 

How bout you go open a textbook instead? You might realize that realigning elections are based off of coalition groups, which haven't changed all that much this election.

 

 

Texas is one of those states where it shouldn't be that close. That was my point.

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Texas is one of those states where it shouldn't be that close. That was my point.

 

Let's review the conversation:

 

1.) You said it shouldn't be "that close".

2.) I pointed out that the Republican lead is currently slightly higher than the Party ID advantage (and around historical Party ID averages).

3.) You again claim it shouldn't be "that close".

 

What about part #2 didn't you understand?

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Let's review the conversation:

 

1.) You said it shouldn't be "that close".

2.) I pointed out that the Republican lead is currently slightly higher than the Party ID advantage (and around historical Party ID averages).

3.) You again claim it shouldn't be "that close".

 

What about part #2 didn't you understand?

 

 

 

I am looking at it this way... in pretty much every state he currently running half of where Bush was in 2004. And in typically over the top red states. That can't be good.

 

 

McCain +10.6 Now

Bush +22.9 2004

Bush +21.3 200

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I am looking at it this way... in pretty much every state he currently running half of where Bush was in 2004. And in typically over the top red states. That can't be good.

 

 

McCain +10.6 Now

Bush +22.9 2004

Bush +21.3 200

Like it or not, and I don't , there are many hippies in the media. They always report in favor of democrats. It would be interesting to see the polls from Early October in 2000 and 2004. You really can't compare October poll numbers to actual election results if if the hippies want to make you look at it that way.

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I am looking at it this way... in pretty much every state he currently running half of where Bush was in 2004. And in typically over the top red states. That can't be good.

 

 

McCain +10.6 Now

Bush +22.9 2004

Bush +21.3 200

 

Do you happen to know which state Bush was the governor of, by chance?

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Ummm , let me think? why do I bother with you.

 

Let me rephrase, then.

 

Expecting McCain to come close to a Presidential Candidate who was a popular governor in his state, when the results weren't inline with general Party ID, is unrealistic.

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