eball's stat of the week

[eball]

First and foremost -- and I know it's been stated many times -- we KNEW the Buffalo Bills were not going to go 16-0 this season. If there is a "preferred" game to lose, it's an out-of-conference road game. That's the primary reason I'm not torn up over yesterday's result.

 

Now, on to my stat of the week -- 6.0. That's the average yards per pass play for the Cardinals yesterday. Why did I select that as my key stat? Because for as bad as we all felt about the way this game played out, that's a pretty reasonable number for a defense to allow. It also means Arizona played about as perfect a game on offense as is possible, because when the ball is put in the air 42 times, you expect there will be a couple of mistakes made by the offense. That just didn't happen yesterday, which is a credit to the Cards and their preparation.

 

Look, there are issues -- lack of pressure from front four, no blitzing, etc. -- but if Fewell's goal was to avoid giving up the big play, the defense succeeded. It was painful to watch, but after reviewing the box score I'm not as disappointed as I was at 7:00 last night.

 

Yesterday's game will make the Bills' defense better, not worse, and I believe the bye week (although early) comes at the perfect time for this team. They got knocked in the mouth, learned a few things, and will get themselves straight as they prepare for 10 of 11 games against AFC opponents.

 

This game was 24-17 late in the third quarter before it unraveled for the Bills (FG penalty, Royal fumble). Despite the "bend but break" philosophy Fewell employed, the game was STILL WINNABLE behind our backup QB. There is something to be said for that.

 

Enjoy the bye week, folks. We're still fans of the team that sits alone at 1st place in the AFC East.

[Steely Dan]

First and foremost -- and I know it's been stated many times -- we KNEW the Buffalo Bills were not going to go 16-0 this season. If there is a "preferred" game to lose, it's an out-of-conference road game. That's the primary reason I'm not torn up over yesterday's result.

 

Now, on to my stat of the week -- 6.0. That's the average yards per pass play for the Cardinals yesterday. Why did I select that as my key stat? Because for as bad as we all felt about the way this game played out, that's a pretty reasonable number for a defense to allow. It also means Arizona played about as perfect a game on offense as is possible, because when the ball is put in the air 42 times, you expect there will be a couple of mistakes made by the offense. That just didn't happen yesterday, which is a credit to the Cards and their preparation.

 

Look, there are issues -- lack of pressure from front four, no blitzing, etc. -- but if Fewell's goal was to avoid giving up the big play, the defense succeeded. It was painful to watch, but after reviewing the box score I'm not as disappointed as I was at 7:00 last night.

 

Yesterday's game will make the Bills' defense better, not worse, and I believe the bye week (although early) comes at the perfect time for this team. They got knocked in the mouth, learned a few things, and will get themselves straight as they prepare for 10 of 11 games against AFC opponents.

 

This game was 24-17 late in the third quarter before it unraveled for the Bills (FG penalty, Royal fumble). Despite the "bend but break" philosophy Fewell employed, the game was STILL WINNABLE behind our backup QB. There is something to be said for that.

 

Enjoy the bye week, folks. We're still fans of the team that sits alone at 1st place in the AFC East.

 

Amen brutha!!

[Beerball]

First and foremost -- and I know it's been stated many times -- we KNEW the Buffalo Bills were not going to go 16-0 this season. If there is a "preferred" game to lose, it's an out-of-conference road game. That's the primary reason I'm not torn up over yesterday's result.

 

Now, on to my stat of the week -- 6.0. That's the average yards per pass play for the Cardinals yesterday. Why did I select that as my key stat? Because for as bad as we all felt about the way this game played out, that's a pretty reasonable number for a defense to allow. It also means Arizona played about as perfect a game on offense as is possible, because when the ball is put in the air 42 times, you expect there will be a couple of mistakes made by the offense. That just didn't happen yesterday, which is a credit to the Cards and their preparation.

 

Look, there are issues -- lack of pressure from front four, no blitzing, etc. -- but if Fewell's goal was to avoid giving up the big play, the defense succeeded. It was painful to watch, but after reviewing the box score I'm not as disappointed as I was at 7:00 last night.

 

Yesterday's game will make the Bills' defense better, not worse, and I believe the bye week (although early) comes at the perfect time for this team. They got knocked in the mouth, learned a few things, and will get themselves straight as they prepare for 10 of 11 games against AFC opponents.

 

This game was 24-17 late in the third quarter before it unraveled for the Bills (FG penalty, Royal fumble). Despite the "bend but break" philosophy Fewell employed, the game was STILL WINNABLE behind our backup QB. There is something to be said for that.

 

Enjoy the bye week, folks. We're still fans of the team that sits alone at 1st place in the AFC East.

In another post I called it a slow painful death. I painfully and slowly give this Stat O the Week a 10.

 

When the heck was the last time that we knew we were going to be in first place coming out of our buy week?

[Captain Hindsight]

First and foremost -- and I know it's been stated many times -- we KNEW the Buffalo Bills were not going to go 16-0 this season. If there is a "preferred" game to lose, it's an out-of-conference road game. That's the primary reason I'm not torn up over yesterday's result.

 

Now, on to my stat of the week -- 6.0. That's the average yards per pass play for the Cardinals yesterday. Why did I select that as my key stat? Because for as bad as we all felt about the way this game played out, that's a pretty reasonable number for a defense to allow. It also means Arizona played about as perfect a game on offense as is possible, because when the ball is put in the air 42 times, you expect there will be a couple of mistakes made by the offense. That just didn't happen yesterday, which is a credit to the Cards and their preparation.

 

Look, there are issues -- lack of pressure from front four, no blitzing, etc. -- but if Fewell's goal was to avoid giving up the big play, the defense succeeded. It was painful to watch, but after reviewing the box score I'm not as disappointed as I was at 7:00 last night.

 

Yesterday's game will make the Bills' defense better, not worse, and I believe the bye week (although early) comes at the perfect time for this team. They got knocked in the mouth, learned a few things, and will get themselves straight as they prepare for 10 of 11 games against AFC opponents.

 

This game was 24-17 late in the third quarter before it unraveled for the Bills (FG penalty, Royal fumble). Despite the "bend but break" philosophy Fewell employed, the game was STILL WINNABLE behind our backup QB. There is something to be said for that.

 

Enjoy the bye week, folks. We're still fans of the team that sits alone at 1st place in the AFC East.

Well put.... im not on suicide watch anymore!

 

Thanks Eball!

[Rubes]

I thought you were going to say that's how many seconds Warner had on each passing play to find a receiver.

 

Nevertheless, nice post!

[eball]

I thought you were going to say that's how many seconds Warner had on each passing play to find a receiver.

 

Nevertheless, nice post!

Thanks. Believe me, I was frustrated yesterday as well, but this really comes down to a couple of missed opportunities to stop the Cards on 3rd down in the first half, Edwards' injury, and then a series of bad/unlucky plays in rapid succession at the end of the 3rd/beginning of the 4th to put the game out of reach.

 

Everybody likes to cry wolf, and I can only imagine what a forum like this would have been like back in 1990 after the 30-7 whitewash in Miami in Week 2, or in 1991 after the Bills went to KC (at 5-0) and were soundly thrashed, 33-6.

 

Even good teams have bad games. This is a very young team and there will be bumps in the road.

[Lt. Dan's Revenge]

I thought you were going to say that's how many seconds Warner had on each passing play to find a receiver.

 

Nevertheless, nice post!

 

I would love to know what that number was. Although it may not be very indicative of anything since we were handing them short-intermediate routes all day long, meaning Warner didn't need all the time he may have had anyways.

[Steely Dan]

In another post I called it a slow painful death. I painfully and slowly give this Stat O the Week a 10.

 

When the heck was the last time that we knew we were going to be in first place coming out of our buy week?

 

What are you gonna buy?

 

[Dan]

Thanks. Believe me, I was frustrated yesterday as well, but this really comes down to a couple of missed opportunities to stop the Cards on 3rd down in the first half, Edwards' injury, and then a series of bad/unlucky plays in rapid succession at the end of the 3rd/beginning of the 4th to put the game out of reach.

 

Everybody likes to cry wolf, and I can only imagine what a forum like this would have been like back in 1990 after the 30-7 whitewash in Miami in Week 2, or in 1991 after the Bills went to KC (at 5-0) and were soundly thrashed, 33-6.

 

Even good teams have bad games. This is a very young team and there will be bumps in the road.

I would say that single point is the single most important issue at hand. There will be bumps in the road, bad games and bad plays. It is how the team reacts to these bumps that will determine their success this year and in the future. As a great man once said, "we must endeavor to persevere".

[stuckincincy]

stuckincincy's stats of the week:

 

FUM - recovered by AZ at BUF 38

 

FUM - recovered by AZ at BUF 41

 

FUM - recovered by AZ at BUF 19

 

INT - by AZ, play blown dead at the 50 yard line.

 

 

Sacks: 5 by AZ, 0 by BUF.

 

 

It was an overall team effort...

[Orton's Arm]

Look, there are issues -- lack of pressure from front four, no blitzing, etc. -- but if Fewell's goal was to avoid giving up the big play, the defense succeeded. It was painful to watch, but after reviewing the box score I'm not as disappointed as I was at 7:00 last night.

Up until the middle of the 4th quarter, the Bills defense had accomplished the following:

• Held the Cards' offense to a FG on drive #4. (Time expired, or else it might have been a TD)
  
• Held the Cards' offense to 3 and out on drive #5
  
• Held the Cards' offense to a FG on drive #7
  

Drives 1, 2, 3, 6, and 8 resulted in TDs. Out of a total of 56 possible points on those first 8 drives, the Cards scored 41. That's 73% of the points the Cards would have had, had they scored a TD with literally every possession. An effort like that does not constitute defensive success, by any measurement of success I'd care to use.

 

I'm using the first 8 drives as my cutoff, because after that the Cards were trying to run the ball and run out the clock.

 

This game does raise serious questions about our defense. We played a prevent-style defense, with large cushions, practically the whole game. We got killed by an offense that inflicted a thousand small cuts. Can this defense be effective against that style of offense? Let's hope so. But the play calling will need to improve by a lot for that to happen.

[Mickey]

Up until the middle of the 4th quarter, the Bills defense had accomplished the following:

• Held the Cards' offense to a FG on drive #4. (Time expired, or else it might have been a TD)
  
• Held the Cards' offense to 3 and out on drive #5
  
• Held the Cards' offense to a FG on drive #7
  

Drives 1, 2, 3, 6, and 8 resulted in TDs. Out of a total of 56 possible points on those first 8 drives, the Cards scored 41. That's 73% of the points the Cards would have had, had they scored a TD with literally every possession. An effort like that does not constitute defensive success, by any measurement of success I'd care to use.

 

I'm using the first 8 drives as my cutoff, because after that the Cards were trying to run the ball and run out the clock.

 

This game does raise serious questions about our defense. We played a prevent-style defense, with large cushions, practically the whole game. We got killed by an offense that inflicted a thousand small cuts. Can this defense be effective against that style of offense? Let's hope so. But the play calling will need to improve by a lot for that to happen.

I am not sure leaving guys wide open on the short stuff, so wide open that they don't even bother looking long, is the way you want to prevent the long pass. Seems like a suspect strategy to me but heck, it did "take away" the big play so I guess there is your silver lining.

 

It was just one game, not a trend but boy oh boy, what a crappy game it was. So we bleed awhile only to rise and fight again.

[ShipUPride]

First and foremost -- and I know it's been stated many times -- we KNEW the Buffalo Bills were not going to go 16-0 this season. If there is a "preferred" game to lose, it's an out-of-conference road game. That's the primary reason I'm not torn up over yesterday's result.

 

Now, on to my stat of the week -- 6.0. That's the average yards per pass play for the Cardinals yesterday. Why did I select that as my key stat? Because for as bad as we all felt about the way this game played out, that's a pretty reasonable number for a defense to allow. It also means Arizona played about as perfect a game on offense as is possible, because when the ball is put in the air 42 times, you expect there will be a couple of mistakes made by the offense. That just didn't happen yesterday, which is a credit to the Cards and their preparation.

 

Look, there are issues -- lack of pressure from front four, no blitzing, etc. -- but if Fewell's goal was to avoid giving up the big play, the defense succeeded. It was painful to watch, but after reviewing the box score I'm not as disappointed as I was at 7:00 last night.

 

Yesterday's game will make the Bills' defense better, not worse, and I believe the bye week (although early) comes at the perfect time for this team. They got knocked in the mouth, learned a few things, and will get themselves straight as they prepare for 10 of 11 games against AFC opponents.

 

This game was 24-17 late in the third quarter before it unraveled for the Bills (FG penalty, Royal fumble). Despite the "bend but break" philosophy Fewell employed, the game was STILL WINNABLE behind our backup QB. There is something to be said for that.

 

Enjoy the bye week, folks. We're still fans of the team that sits alone at 1st place in the AFC East.

 

Great post! Thank you for that!

[eball]

Up until the middle of the 4th quarter, the Bills defense had accomplished the following:

• Held the Cards' offense to a FG on drive #4. (Time expired, or else it might have been a TD)
  
• Held the Cards' offense to 3 and out on drive #5
  
• Held the Cards' offense to a FG on drive #7
  

Drives 1, 2, 3, 6, and 8 resulted in TDs. Out of a total of 56 possible points on those first 8 drives, the Cards scored 41. That's 73% of the points the Cards would have had, had they scored a TD with literally every possession. An effort like that does not constitute defensive success, by any measurement of success I'd care to use.

 

I'm using the first 8 drives as my cutoff, because after that the Cards were trying to run the ball and run out the clock.

 

This game does raise serious questions about our defense. We played a prevent-style defense, with large cushions, practically the whole game. We got killed by an offense that inflicted a thousand small cuts. Can this defense be effective against that style of offense? Let's hope so. But the play calling will need to improve by a lot for that to happen.

Nowhere did I say the Bills played well; I said if they intended to employ a defense to take away the big play they succeeded. They missed out on 6 separate opportunities in the first half to stop the Cards on 3rd down -- that's certainly on them.

 

Honestly, in the second half, the defense played much better -- drive #6 should have ended in a FG too (can't really blame the defense for Jenkins' offsides penalty). Unfortunately, once the score became 31-17 the offense decided to hand the ball to Arizona on consecutive possessions with a short field (holding them to a FG on one of those).

 

You're missing my larger point, though -- the fact the Cards made NO mistakes on offense in 70-some plays, including 42 throws. A bend-but-not-break philosophy relies upon an offense being unable to sustain drives with that sort of mistake-free consistency.

 

The game wasn't good, but the tape will be studied and a gameplan added to the Bills' arsenal the next time an offense employs the "quick pass" attack.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

So we bleed awhile only to rise and fight again.

[keepthefaith]

First and foremost -- and I know it's been stated many times -- we KNEW the Buffalo Bills were not going to go 16-0 this season. If there is a "preferred" game to lose, it's an out-of-conference road game. That's the primary reason I'm not torn up over yesterday's result.

 

Now, on to my stat of the week -- 6.0. That's the average yards per pass play for the Cardinals yesterday. Why did I select that as my key stat? Because for as bad as we all felt about the way this game played out, that's a pretty reasonable number for a defense to allow. It also means Arizona played about as perfect a game on offense as is possible, because when the ball is put in the air 42 times, you expect there will be a couple of mistakes made by the offense. That just didn't happen yesterday, which is a credit to the Cards and their preparation.

 

Look, there are issues -- lack of pressure from front four, no blitzing, etc. -- but if Fewell's goal was to avoid giving up the big play, the defense succeeded. It was painful to watch, but after reviewing the box score I'm not as disappointed as I was at 7:00 last night.

 

Yesterday's game will make the Bills' defense better, not worse, and I believe the bye week (although early) comes at the perfect time for this team. They got knocked in the mouth, learned a few things, and will get themselves straight as they prepare for 10 of 11 games against AFC opponents.

 

This game was 24-17 late in the third quarter before it unraveled for the Bills (FG penalty, Royal fumble). Despite the "bend but break" philosophy Fewell employed, the game was STILL WINNABLE behind our backup QB. There is something to be said for that.

 

Enjoy the bye week, folks. We're still fans of the team that sits alone at 1st place in the AFC East.

 

I felt that many on this board were too euphoric at 4-0. Now we'e seeing the knee-jerk in the other direction. 4-1 is near the top of the league. Stay tuned, more wins and losses (highs and lows) to follow.

[Rubes]

I am not sure leaving guys wide open on the short stuff, so wide open that they don't even bother looking long, is the way you want to prevent the long pass. Seems like a suspect strategy to me but heck, it did "take away" the big play so I guess there is your silver lining.

 

The only problem with this is that last week, it's what the Rams were doing to us over and over, and it was killing us. They kept firing the short ins and outs, and we could do little to stop them.

 

For some reason, St. Louis went away from that, and it ended up biting them in the butt. But it made me worried that other teams might pick up on it, and I can't help but think that this is exactly what the Cards did. We had no answer to it.

 

Expect to see everybody and their sisters doing it to us week in and week out until we figure out how to stop it.

[Orton's Arm]

Nowhere did I say the Bills played well; I said if they intended to employ a defense to take away the big play they succeeded. They missed out on 6 separate opportunities in the first half to stop the Cards on 3rd down -- that's certainly on them.

 

Honestly, in the second half, the defense played much better -- drive #6 should have ended in a FG too (can't really blame the defense for Jenkins' offsides penalty). Unfortunately, once the score became 31-17 the offense decided to hand the ball to Arizona on consecutive possessions with a short field (holding them to a FG on one of those).

 

You're missing my larger point, though -- the fact the Cards made NO mistakes on offense in 70-some plays, including 42 throws. A bend-but-not-break philosophy relies upon an offense being unable to sustain drives with that sort of mistake-free consistency.

 

The game wasn't good, but the tape will be studied and a gameplan added to the Bills' arsenal the next time an offense employs the "quick pass" attack.

I agree the defense played better in the second half. Out of four meaningful drives, the defense held the Cards to a 3 and out on one of them, allowed a FG on another, and allowed 2 TDs. Or you could look at it as 2 FGs and 1 TD if you want to blame that one TD on the special teams penalty (which is reasonable). After making that adjustment, the Cards scored 53% of possible points in the second half, after having scored 85% of possible points in the first half. (Scoring a TD every drive represents 100% efficiency.) The defensive effort was unacceptable in both halves, albeit to differing degrees.

 

To address your other point, our game plan seemed to be to prevent big plays, to force them into many-play drives to score, and to wait around for them to do something to mess things up. That kind of passivity will get you killed, especially against teams that excel in the death by a thousand small cuts offense, such as the Cards and New England. We need a different defensive philosophy to employ against teams which are good at playing mistake-free, many play drive football. Waiting around for teams like those to beat themselves isn't going to work.