SD Jarhead Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 For those of you in the know out there (or those who think they know). It looks like the bailout had no effect what so ever on the market. Granted it was only open for a short period after the bill passed, but if its intent was to instill confidence, the early results show that this hasn't happened. Now what? Every 'emergency' plan hatched by the Fed and Treasury is having a diminishing effect on the market. When has the Fed played its last card? What happens Monday?
taterhill Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 Probably a rate cut soon...the gov't had its chance on Monday and they blew it...
drnykterstein Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 Another 700 Billion, but they give it to real people instead of the wall street idiots. (NO, YOU DOPE, I'M NOT SERIOUS!!)
Lurker Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 For those of you in the know out there (or those who think they know). It looks like the bailout had no effect what so ever on the market. Granted it was only open for a short period after the bill passed, but if its intent was to instill confidence, the early results show that this hasn't happened. Now what? Every 'emergency' plan hatched by the Fed and Treasury is having a diminishing effect on the market. When has the Fed played its last card? What happens Monday? Friday was a classic 'sell the news' move, as well as a reaction to the poor labor report. The Fed is working furiously to sign up 7-8 asset management firms to get the bailout program underway, but it's gonna be a few weeks before the machinery's in place to hold the first auctions, IMO. Even so, we're now in a recession--so even when the credit markets get unclogged, it will take at least a year for the economy to recover. There's no silver bullet that can fix all the economic problems we're facing right now (although <$80 oil would certainly help).
Lurker Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 Probably a rate cut soon...the gov't had its chance on Monday and they blew it... The futures market is factoring in a 50 basis point cut at the Oct 28-29 meeting, but even the Fed would likely agree it would mostly be symbolic, as monetary policy is already very accomodative. More of a spoonfull of sugar than a stimulative move.
ExiledInIllinois Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 Fuel is below $3.50 a gallon... Watch it go back up to 4 bucks. I know the two have no direct relation... But, just watch. To quote Wilma and Betty: "Charge it!"
StupidNation Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 Friday was a classic 'sell the news' move, as well as a reaction to the poor labor report. The Fed is working furiously to sign up 7-8 asset management firms to get the bailout program underway, but it's gonna be a few weeks before the machinery's in place to hold the first auctions, IMO. Even so, we're now in a recession--so even when the credit markets get unclogged, it will take at least a year for the economy to recover. There's no silver bullet that can fix all the economic problems we're facing right now (although <$80 oil would certainly help). We could have $50 oil without the bailout. Expect $150-200 next year. Pelosi and Bush sold as a bad bill of goods. Protecting their buddies with deep pockets is so American.
ExiledInIllinois Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 We could have $50 oil without the bailout. Expect $150-200 next year. Pelosi and Bush sold as a bad bill of goods. Protecting their buddies with deep pockets is so American. Bingo! Again... Can't afford to get to work? Charge it! 4 bucks a gallon here we come again! Again... I could care less... Just saying.
SD Jarhead Posted October 4, 2008 Author Posted October 4, 2008 Another 700 Billion, but they give it to real people instead of the wall street idiots. (NO, YOU DOPE, I'M NOT SERIOUS!!) Thanks for the deep thoughts...are you naturally an **** or just trying real hard to be one?
Lurker Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 We could have $50 oil without the bailout. How so, Mr. Nation? Well, I suppose one way would be by having the deepest global recession since 1973. How about ever presenting some facts/analysis to back up your asinine commentary. Come on, crank on the 'ol grey matter and impress me with your knowledge....
SD Jarhead Posted October 4, 2008 Author Posted October 4, 2008 We could have $50 oil without the bailout. Expect $150-200 next year. Pelosi and Bush sold as a bad bill of goods. Protecting their buddies with deep pockets is so American. Although we are in a deflationary spiral right now, it is only a matter of time until we see hyperinflation the way the Fed has been wearing out the printing presses. I guess we'll have to burn that bridge when we come to it.
Lurker Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 Although we are in a deflationary spiral right now, it is only a matter of time until we see hyperinflation the way the Fed has been wearing out the printing presses. I guess we'll have to burn that bridge when we come to it. Here's the money supply growth through August. A 5.4% year-over-year increase in M2 is not that much when they've cut short-term rates by more than half over the same period (from 5.25% in Aug '07 to 2.0% now).
TPS Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 The futures market is factoring in a 50 basis point cut at the Oct 28-29 meeting, but even the Fed would likely agree it would mostly be symbolic, as monetary policy is already very accomodative. More of a spoonfull of sugar than a stimulative move. Even that is an understatement...
ExiledInIllinois Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 Although we are in a deflationary spiral right now, it is only a matter of time until we see hyperinflation the way the Fed has been wearing out the printing presses. I guess we'll have to burn that bridge when we come to it. No need to burn. No need to worry, the bridge goes nowhere. Zing! I'd a vee here all week! Try the veil, the cook says it is delish!
Chef Jim Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 If you're in the market that money should be for long term (10 plus years) so what do you do now? Nothing provided you had a well diversified portfolio and properly allocated portfolio to begin with.
ExiledInIllinois Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 If you're in the market that money should be for long term (10 plus years) so what do you do now? Nothing provided you had a well diversified portfolio and properly allocated portfolio to begin with. Yes... That is true... But, I saw this coming and pulled out early (always good to pull out early... )... Really, I didn't lose much and what ever I did... I more than handsomely made up for that when the rates were flush! It is the fools that didn't see this coming (enjoying the good 'ole hump session)... Stayed in and now have to stay in to recoup... No?
Chef Jim Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 Yes... That is true... But, I saw this coming and pulled out early (always good to pull out early... )... Really, I didn't lose much and what ever I did... I more than handsomely made up for that when the rates were flush! It is the fools that didn't see this coming (enjoying the good 'ole hump session)... Stayed in and now have to stay in to recoup... No? No....because you'll be a day late and a dollar short getting back in. The smart ones are the ones that not only stayed in but dumped more in....like me.
ExiledInIllinois Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 No....because you'll be a day late and a dollar short getting back in. The smart ones are the ones that not only stayed in but dumped more in....like me. I could care less... I am low maintenance... I can live in a hole in the ground... Oh, wait... I already do. I think I scare my wife and children! Too bad, they will have to Cowboy up too!
John Adams Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 The rescue bailout plan won't stop a recession. It's not meant to. It's likely to be a rough market for a while. Put another way, the money was not intended to turn around the entire economy--just save it from the cliff--now we're headed down a slower path through an almost certain recession. The bailout is to take the bad debt off the market and keep capital flowing. Taking that bad debt off the market (most of it housing debt) should stabilize housing prices too--once that finally happens (won't be for a while), consumers will be in a bit better shape and hopefully the economy will follow.
ExiledInIllinois Posted October 4, 2008 Posted October 4, 2008 The rescue bailout plan won't stop a recession. It's not meant to. It's likely to be a rough market for a while. Put another way, the money was not intended to turn around the entire economy--just save it from the cliff--now we're headed down a slower path through an almost certain recession. The bailout is to take the bad debt off the market and keep capital flowing. Taking that bad debt off the market (most of it housing debt) should stabilize housing prices too--once that finally happens (won't be for a while), consumers will be in a bit better shape and hopefully the economy will follow. I made a bad loan to my older brother... Can you take that 100 bucks off my hands? Ever since one of his friends gave me a wedgie in 4th grade... I knew not to trust that creep!
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