Ch 4 may get dropped from Time Warner?

[Fezmid]

Here's the proof

 

Maybe Fez will explain based on what I have why I need two and some people only need one.

 

Not sure why you have two, but you only need one. The dishes that you have in the picture are single LNB dishes, meaning they only point to one sat. You can get a 5-LNB dish nowadays that's much larger, gives a better signal, and is less prone to rain fade - it points to all 5 sats at once:

 

http://www.weaknees.com/tivo-directv-parts.php

 

It's kinda crazy that the installer put up two dishes instead of one dual-LNB/triple-LNB/5-LNB dish (depending on when you had the install). It should work the same as a dual-LNB dish (now obsolete), but it's kinda lame...

[Fezmid]

I disagree with that blanket statement. I think that, because Lin owns network affiliates that carry the NFL, and some of the markets involved are the home markets of NFL teams, that the Bills (and the Pack) actually play a part in these negotiations. Lin may be trying to extract a small bit more from TW (or, has been suggested, get the payment up front) based on their having the home team broadcasts.

 

Again, I don't have the details on this negotiation, but I have a good idea how they go down, having participated in a few. But, you are correct that the negotiation is not strictly about the Bills games.

 

EDIT: Of course, there is nothing stopping Lin and TW from agreeing to a deal/exemption for today in the cities with the NFL teams, while the negotiations continue.

 

Ok, it is a bit of a blanket statement, but I still think it's mostly true -- the CSI shows probably get more viewers in the LIN markets than the Bills do in WNY, you know? It's a slice of the puzzle, but probably not the major factor.

[Flbillsfan#1]

Here's the proof

 

Maybe Fez will explain based on what I have why I need two and some people only need one.

Again my appologies. It seems like a strange set up, only single lnb's on each dish = very old technology.

[SectionC3]

I just hooked up the rabbit ears TW handed out yesterday. This is a memo to Chris Musial and the folks at Time Warner:

 

1. TW: if you're going to give away rabbit ears to help your customers receive today's game, try giving away a device that ACTUALLY WORKS. The picture with the piece of cr*p you gave me is awful.

 

2. Chris Musial: Bad news there, buddy. What stinks for you is that the picture of your station is HORRIBLE. Odds are pretty good that unless this mess gets resolved, I'll watch your station for a total of roughly six hours between now and November 23. Sure, I can go somewhere else and see the Bills/Dolphins and Bills/Pats games in HD - such as a sports bar, or the home of a friend with a dish. But, I'm not going to do that to watch Don Postles, CSI Miami, 60 Minutes, your wake-up program or any other show on your station. So, the gist of it is, when your ratings book starts (I believe it's soon, if you're not there already), you're out of luck, my friend. (You didn't even think about the issue of whether I might watch your soon to be formerly highly rated wake up show on my bedroom TV, for which I do not have rabbit ears, because I put that set on the living room TV!)

 

Basically, then, as soon as I settle in a house in the Southtowns, I'm getting FIOS (TW, you lose). Between now and then, and probably for a good while after once my new viewing habits are hardened, I won't watch Channel 4 outside of 1p to 4p on Bills Sundays (Channel 4, you lose too).

 

Big risk, no reward for either side. I know you're reading this, too.

[The Dean]

That brings us to the crux of this dispute. We're talking major dollars here, as evinced by the willingness of TW to give away rabbit ears that retail in the $10-ish neighborhood.

 

Assume for the sake of argument that Chris Musial is accurately stating that LIN wants about $.01 per day per subscriber for Channel 4. Call it $2.50 per year per subscriber.

 

Now, assume that there are about 100,000 cable subscribers in this market. The figure might be a little low, but it makes it easier to run the numbers. We're talking about $250,000 per year for Channel 4. Again, probably a low figure, but it's round.

 

Next, multiply that figure by 4 (Channel 4 plus Channels 2, 7 and 29 [sorry, UPN and other lesser networks]). All of a sudden, you're at $1,000,000 per year for Buffalo, which is probably not even a top-50 market anymore. (52 or 53, if memory serves). The additional local network signals are added to the analysis because those stations will more likely than not want treatment equal to that afforded Channel 4.

 

Finally, multiply that $1,000,000 figure by, say, 100, for the top 100 markets in the country. Again, the numbers a probably low, but that local $250,000 dispute with Channel 4 easily morphs into a national $100,000,000 dispute with local over-the-air providers. This is about big dollars and might not get solved until external pressures (i.e., 4's ratings plummet b/c customers are too lazy or not loyal enough to use the ears, or LIN/CBS/other network parents get skittish about going into a ratings period off of a dominant cable provider).

 

This analysis assumes that TW is in all of the top 100 markets. Even if TW is in only 50 of those markets, $50,000,000 is still a lot of jack and worth the giveaway of a few rabbit ears.

 

 

Out of curiosity, do you have any idea what TW pays. let's say, Discovery Health Network, for carrying their programing? It's a hell of a lot more than a penny per sub.

[SectionC3]

Out of curiosity, do you have any idea what TW pays. let's say, Discovery Health Network, for carrying their programing? It's a hell of a lot more than a penny per sub.

 

 

That is more than likely the case for just about every channel we get on TW. Some of the big boys get a couple of bucks a month or close to it - ESPN is in the $3/month range, CNN is probably up there too.

 

Point is, Musial put the figure at less than a penny a day. $2.50 per year per subscriber is therefore a very, very reasonable estimate (approx. .7 cents a day per subscriber). Check my next post for the some of the downside for both of the big boys in this dispute.

[The Dean]

That is more than likely the case for just about every channel we get on TW. Some of the big boys get a couple of bucks a month or close to it - ESPN is in the $3 range, CNN is probably up there too.

 

Point is, Musial put the figure at less than a penny a day. $2.50 per year per subscriber is therefore a very, very reasonable estimate (approx. .7 cents a day per subscriber). Check my next post for the some of the downside for both of the big boys in this dispute.

 

 

I am well aware of the issues, and the downsides here. As I have stated in many different threads, there is plenty of blame to pass around here. This is likely to cost both sides $$ and credibility.

[SectionC3]

I am well aware of the issues, and the downsides here. As I have stated in many different threads, there is plenty of blame to pass around here. This is likely to cost both sides $$ and credibility.

 

 

I'd say the losses started already. TW has invested man hours and probably about 2 cents per unit in those TV antennas they're giving away. The subscriber base here will surely shrink, as evinced by what I hear are solid phone banks at FIOS and the local dish outlet. Will the base shrink enough to significantly damage TW stock? Beats me.

 

Channel 4 and the LIN affiliates are going to get killed if this drags on. If I was an advertiser and had the contractual right, I'd cancel everything on that station after today's game until this gets resolved. They may have even lost buys for the game. We as a society are too lazy to deal with the pain in the *ss that the ears are, and too spoiled to put up with the cr*ppy picture when another show of equal quality is on the 100+ channel options at our disposal.

 

I don't blame TW for pushing this issue, but from LIN's perspective . . . there has to be a smarter way to do this.

[The Dean]

I'd say the losses started already. TW has invested man hours and probably about 2 cents per unit in those TV antennas they're giving away. The subscriber base here will surely shrink, as evinced by what I hear are solid phone banks at FIOS and the local dish outlet. Will the base shrink enough to significantly damage TW stock? Beats me.

 

Channel 4 and the LIN affiliates are going to get killed if this drags on. If I was an advertiser and had the contractual right, I'd cancel everything on that station after today's game until this gets resolved. They may have even lost buys for the game. We as a society are too lazy to deal with the pain in the *ss that the ears are, and too spoiled to put up with the cr*ppy picture when another show of equal quality is on the 100+ channel options at our disposal.

 

I don't blame TW for pushing this issue, but from LIN's perspective . . . there has to be a smarter way to do this.

 

 

You don't blame TW for not wanting to pay a penny to carry a major broadcast affiliate? Wow.

[stuckincincy]

You don't blame TW for not wanting to pay a penny to carry a major broadcast affiliate? Wow.

 

 

I am willing to sponsor a Bills fan. As long as I get a photograph sent to me, along with letters now and then, I will send a monthly check to LIN in the amount of 30 cents.

[sullim4]

Jack needed 2 dishes because he was an SD customer that required locals from the 72.5 degree orbital location. Lyngsat works wonders:

 

http://www.lyngsat.com/packages/directvusa72.html

[SectionC3]

You don't blame TW for not wanting to pay a penny to carry a major broadcast affiliate? Wow.

 

 

I don't like either TW or LIN. Your statement that I quote is an entirely inaccurate characterization of what I have said.

 

First, the issue is not over "a penny to carry a major broadcast affiliate." It's slightly less than a penny per subscriber PER DAY, which amounts to a vast sum of money per subscriber base PER YEAR as discussed in my prior post and will be referenced below. Anyone who can't comprehend how that money adds up is likely to blame for the national economic crisis in which we're now mired.

 

Second, this is a national question involving tens of millions of dollars and future negotiations with other local broadcast affiliates in other markets. In other words, the question isn't about today's Bills/Cardinals game, it's about whether TW is forced to pay for programming that is broadcast over the air by these affiliates. I'm not taking sides; just pointing out the facts.

 

The way for consumers to deal with this problem is to ditch Time Warner and, for those of you who meter, ignore Channel 4. Enough canceled ad buys will surely soften LIN's position (remember, LIN pulled its programming from TW). Likewise, although it will probably take a little while longer, enough new FIOS and DISH users should cause TW to think about its approach to this negotiation.

[Flbillsfan#1]

 

I am willing to sponsor a Bills fan. As long as I get a photograph sent to me, along with letters now and then, I will send a monthly check to LIN in the amount of 30 cents.

What correctional facility are you residing in at this time?

[stuckincincy]

What correctional facility are you residing in at this time?

 

Didn't you say that LIN wants 0.7 cents per day? I'm just trying to help out my fellow Bills fans...

[Pyrite Gal]

I don't like either TW or LIN. Your statement that I quote is an entirely inaccurate characterization of what I have said.

 

First, the issue is not over "a penny to carry a major broadcast affiliate." It's slightly less than a penny per subscriber PER DAY, which amounts to a vast sum of money per subscriber base PER YEAR as discussed in my prior post and will be referenced below. Anyone who can't comprehend how that money adds up is likely to blame for the national economic crisis in which we're now mired.

 

Second, this is a national question involving tens of millions of dollars and future negotiations with other local broadcast affiliates in other markets. In other words, the question isn't about today's Bills/Cardinals game, it's about whether TW is forced to pay for programming that is broadcast over the air by these affiliates. I'm not taking sides; just pointing out the facts.

 

The way for consumers to deal with this problem is to ditch Time Warner and, for those of you who meter, ignore Channel 4. Enough canceled ad buys will surely soften LIN's position (remember, LIN pulled its programming from TW). Likewise, although it will probably take a little while longer, enough new FIOS and DISH users should cause TW to think about its approach to this negotiation.

I like your thinking of looking for a way that the average consumer can work to damage both TW and LIN financially. The problem I see here IMHO is that there is a fight between two negotiating parties NEITHER of whom have the interests of Bills fans or their own customers driving their negotiating. They are "morally" correct in their limited mission stances but are a prime example of how when your motivation is an eye for an eye then both parties end up blind.

 

it is simply too bad for us consumers in our society that our elected officials are not even a part of this negotiation since they are a flawed but simply the best representation of broader societal interests in this fight. Unfortunately, our society has abandoned any sense of societal interests to the marketplace.

 

When one does this eventually one ends up with clusterducks like the Bills product meltdown or the fiscal crisis currently plaguing our country.

 

Overall, I think it is great for government to work MORE like a business. However, the idiots in charge also need to understand that government is not a business. Though it is good to be more businesslike in gaining efficiencies, government SHOULD NOT be like a business in taking the risks with my tax dollars that are an inherent part of running a good business.

 

its OK if the corner hardware store closes as long as I can go to either Wa-Mart or some other hardware store. It is not OK if my school or library goes out of business because it is inefficient and just because a local kid happens to be between 5 and 10 when this happens he does not get educated and later sticks a gun in someone's face because he was not smart enough to see other choices besides crime to get cash in his sorry life.

 

A pox on both TW and LIN in this mess and I will look for every opportunity I can find to do my little bit and encourage others to do their little bit to punish them financially. The lousy thing is that probably the moguls in charge of these entities will get some golden parachute and be rewarded individually for screwing up the bottomlines of these companies.

[SectionC3]

Didn't you say that LIN wants 0.7 cents per day? I'm just trying to help out my fellow Bills fans...

 

 

Per subscriber per 15 markets per one affiliate only. Check out the math above. The numbers easily reach $50 million per year on a national level.

[SectionC3]

I like your thinking of looking for a way that the average consumer can work to damage both TW and LIN financially. The problem I see here IMHO is that there is a fight between two negotiating parties NEITHER of whom have the interests of Bills fans or their own customers driving their negotiating. They are "morally" correct in their limited mission stances but are a prime example of how when your motivation is an eye for an eye then both parties end up blind.

 

it is simply too bad for us consumers in our society that our elected officials are not even a part of this negotiation since they are a flawed but simply the best representation of broader societal interests in this fight. Unfortunately, our society has abandoned any sense of societal interests to the marketplace.

 

When one does this eventually one ends up with clusterducks like the Bills product meltdown or the fiscal crisis currently plaguing our country.

 

Overall, I think it is great for government to work MORE like a business. However, the idiots in charge also need to understand that government is not a business. Though it is good to be more businesslike in gaining efficiencies, government SHOULD NOT be like a business in taking the risks with my tax dollars that are an inherent part of running a good business.

 

its OK if the corner hardware store closes as long as I can go to either Wa-Mart or some other hardware store. It is not OK if my school or library goes out of business because it is inefficient and just because a local kid happens to be between 5 and 10 when this happens he does not get educated and later sticks a gun in someone's face because he was not smart enough to see other choices besides crime to get cash in his sorry life.

 

A pox on both TW and LIN in this mess and I will look for every opportunity I can find to do my little bit and encourage others to do their little bit to punish them financially. The lousy thing is that probably the moguls in charge of these entities will get some golden parachute and be rewarded individually for screwing up the bottomlines of these companies.

 

That's an excellent point - pyhrric (sp) victory may be the phrase of the day by the time this mess is resolved.

[stuckincincy]

Per subscriber per 15 markets per one affiliate only. Check out the math above. The numbers easily reach $50 million per year on a national level.

 

That's less than individual contracts for some top NFL QBs.

[Just Jack]

... It's kinda crazy that the installer put up two dishes instead of one dual-LNB/triple-LNB/5-LNB dish (depending on when you had the install). It should work the same as a dual-LNB dish (now obsolete), but it's kinda lame...

Again my appologies. It seems like a strange set up, only single lnb's on each dish = very old technology.

Jack needed 2 dishes because he was an SD customer that required locals from the 72.5 degree orbital location. Lyngsat works wonders:

http://www.lyngsat.com/packages/directvusa72.html

I do only have SD tv's, and the install was back in mid 2006.

[Fezmid]

You guys aren't missing much of a game yet...