Let's get down to business here TBD

[Coach Tuesday]

I'm proud of the cautious optimism around here. Real fans (those of us who have watched the games) know that while 4-0 is no small feat and worth being proud of and excited about, there is a ton of work to be done and plenty of room for improvement. This team has had to come from behind to win in the 4th Quarter the last three games. The "formula" for beating the Bills is out there: run blitz against our heavy, flat-footed line to ensure 3rd and long passing plays, then edge rush to prevent the long completion. On the defensive side of the ball, we seem to have trouble focusing early in the game, and still can't seem to generate pressure with our front four, which ultimately will put tremendous pressure on our secondary. Score early, force the Bills to throw, and then blitz. It hasn't worked yet, but then again, we haven't played a solid offense yet, either.

 

And now the real test comes.

 

First we have to go to AZ, to play a reeling Cards team that can't afford another loss, and, more problematic, can put up loads of points in the passing game. Winning this game is going to be damn tough. Not to mention back-to-back West Coast trips (and it remains to be seen whether Jauron's decision to fly back in-between is a solid one).

 

After the bye week, the test REALLY begins - SD at home, obviously a tough, physical game - and then three division games in a row. Waiting this long to play our divisional rivals means that they'll have more game film to analyze (then again, so will we), and that's never a good thing when Belichick is on the other sideline.

 

If the Bills can go 3-2 or even 2-3 down that stretch, it will be a major accomplishment. Nomatter what, the next five games (six weeks) should give us a clear indication as to whether this team is really playoff-ready.

[mannc]

Winning this game is going to be damn tough. Not to mention back-to-back West Coast trips (and it remains to be seen whether Jauron's decision to fly back in-between is a solid one).

 

I think the Rams moved to St. Louis, Missouri (aka Flyover Country) few years back. Hence, no "back-to-back West Coast trips" for the Bills. Perhaps Dick Jauron knows this, too.

[JasoninMT]

And... that non-flying strategy really worked out well for the Cardinals...

 

I agree this will be a good road test... The Cards are an anomaly... also, if they are missing Boldin... that helps our chances for the most part (they know he's likely out, so they could gameplan differently and make it pay off, how many times have we seen that before, a star goes down, they make adjustments, and it throws off the defense the next week...)

 

I agree w/ the analysis here.

 

I wish we had a later bye week, but maybe 5-0 w/ a week 6 bye week isn't so bad, two weeks to prepare for an improving and hungry San Diego, reelling from early season defeats... Damn that Hochuli! if they'd have won that game the way they shoulda, maybe they wouldn't be as focused... They too struggled for a while against the improved (but soon to diminish w/ the coaching changes and stress) Raiders.

[Coach Tuesday]

I think the Rams moved to St. Louis, Missouri (aka Flyover Country) few years back. Hence, no "back-to-back West Coast trips" for the Bills. Perhaps Dick Jauron knows this, too.

 

Thanks for the sarcastic remark, I know where St. Louis is. The point is two longer trips in a row.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Thanks for the sarcastic remark, I know where St. Louis is. The point is two longer trips in a row.

Right, but it wouldn't have made sense to go straight from St. Louis to Phoenix. Have you ever heard of a team doing that with two cities that far apart?

[San-O]

On the defensive side of the ball, we seem to have trouble focusing early in the game, and still can't seem to generate pressure with our front four, which ultimately will put tremendous pressure on our secondary. Score early, force the Bills to throw, and then blitz. It hasn't worked yet, but then again, we haven't played a solid offense yet, either.

 

Nice short summation. Regarding the defense, I was all in favor of drafting or getting D-linemen for a couple years now. Getting Stroud was huge, getting rid of dead wood like Anderson, Tripplet, was also huge. McCargo doesn't seem to

be panning out too well, although Williams seems OK.

 

Now, to play get to the point, what does the line still need to get preasure on the QB? The Bills are better against the run,

but after 4 games, don't seem to be much better at pass rushing. This was supposed to be a huge year for the outside guys with upgraded and improved D-line interior play. I'm not seeing it.

 

A couple of observations and opinions:

 

o I never understood the Kelsay signing. Someone was afraid of losing Kelsay?

 

o Denney is OK I guess, as a backup LDE. He's 31 now.

 

o Schobel is again on course for another unproductive year (1 sack), he is also 31 now. Note: I read that the

Cards will be starting Mike Gandy at left tackle, so we'll se if Schobel take advantage and pad his stats a bit.

 

o Stroud and Williams are much better in the middle.

 

o Chris Ellis. No idea about him.

 

o Spencer Johnson. Don't recall his name being called much.

 

 

Where does this leave the Bills on the D-line? I think they need to draft a D end to replace (insert-player-here), if the

season ended today, and things stay much the same.

 

Flame away.

 

[DrFishfinder]

I'm proud of the cautious optimism around here. Real fans (those of us who have watched the games) know that while 4-0 is no small feat and worth being proud of and excited about, there is a ton of work to be done and plenty of room for improvement. This team has had to come from behind to win in the 4th Quarter the last three games. The "formula" for beating the Bills is out there: run blitz against our heavy, flat-footed line to ensure 3rd and long passing plays, then edge rush to prevent the long completion. On the defensive side of the ball, we seem to have trouble focusing early in the game, and still can't seem to generate pressure with our front four, which ultimately will put tremendous pressure on our secondary. Score early, force the Bills to throw, and then blitz. It hasn't worked yet, but then again, we haven't played a solid offense yet, either.

 

And now the real test comes.

 

First we have to go to AZ, to play a reeling Cards team that can't afford another loss, and, more problematic, can put up loads of points in the passing game. Winning this game is going to be damn tough. Not to mention back-to-back West Coast trips (and it remains to be seen whether Jauron's decision to fly back in-between is a solid one).

 

After the bye week, the test REALLY begins - SD at home, obviously a tough, physical game - and then three division games in a row. Waiting this long to play our divisional rivals means that they'll have more game film to analyze (then again, so will we), and that's never a good thing when Belichick is on the other sideline.

 

If the Bills can go 3-2 or even 2-3 down that stretch, it will be a major accomplishment. Nomatter what, the next five games (six weeks) should give us a clear indication as to whether this team is really playoff-ready.

Currently:

 

Arizona rated #4 in passing offense at 290.8YPG

Bills rated #12 @ 217.5YPG

Nod to Arizona

 

Buffalo is #6 in NFL Pass Defense with 168.5 YPG/6.17YPA

Arizona rated #16 in Pass Defense with 204.5YPG

Nod to Bills

 

+122YPG in favor of Arizona Passing

+ 13YPG in favor of Bills Passing

Nod to Arizona for passing game

 

Arizona is rated #14 in the NFL in rushing defense @ 101.3YPG

Buffalo is rated #18 in the NFL in rushing defense @ 112YPG

Nod to Arizona

 

Buffalo rated #20 in Rushing offense at 102YPG

Arizona rated #25 in rusing offense at 87YPG

Nod to Bills

 

-25YPG rushing for Arizona

+0.7YPG rushing for Bills

Nod to Bills for rushing game

 

Like Arizona's chances if they pass a lot. Like Buffalo's chances if the Bills make them run.

[ChasBB]

Not to mention back-to-back West Coast trips (and it remains to be seen whether Jauron's decision to fly back in-between is a solid one).

 

Good points, but the decision to fly home between is the only sensible option. This isn't like the Cards hanging out in the east coast and going from Washington, DC to NYC. The distance between St. Louis & Phoenix is 1500 miles. Better just to be home and practice in their own facility, be with their families (for those with families) and then make the trip back out again. The Cards staying east didn't work so well for them and I don't think it would have worked so well for the Bills, either, to stay out mid-west/southwest.

[BillsVet]

Nice short summation. Regarding the defense, I was all in favor of drafting or getting D-linemen for a couple years now. Getting Stroud was huge, getting rid of dead wood like Anderson, Tripplet, was also huge. McCargo doesn't seem to

be panning out too well, although Williams seems OK.

 

Now, to play get to the point, what does the line still need to get preasure on the QB? The Bills are better against the run,

but after 4 games, don't seem to be much better at pass rushing. This was supposed to be a huge year for the outside guys with upgraded and improved D-line interior play. I'm not seeing it.

 

A C2 defense relies so heavily on the front four generating a pass rush. Sure they blitz and do other things, but I'm . I too am not seeing a pass rush that was predicted in the off-season after Stroud's acquisition.

 

I've also been amazed that Ellis hasn't dressed. Unless he's an absolute liability, sitting a third round pick for the first quarter of the season is strange. Especially considering they haven't been able to pressure the QB with just their front four.

[eball]

Right, but it wouldn't have made sense to go straight from St. Louis to Phoenix. Have you ever heard of a team doing that with two cities that far apart?

St. Louis to Buffalo is what, a 3-hour flight, tops? Absolutely ZERO reason to take the players away from their homes and families for a week with that short of a trip.

[ax4782]

I'm proud of the cautious optimism around here. Real fans (those of us who have watched the games) know that while 4-0 is no small feat and worth being proud of and excited about, there is a ton of work to be done and plenty of room for improvement. This team has had to come from behind to win in the 4th Quarter the last three games. The "formula" for beating the Bills is out there: run blitz against our heavy, flat-footed line to ensure 3rd and long passing plays, then edge rush to prevent the long completion. On the defensive side of the ball, we seem to have trouble focusing early in the game, and still can't seem to generate pressure with our front four, which ultimately will put tremendous pressure on our secondary. Score early, force the Bills to throw, and then blitz. It hasn't worked yet, but then again, we haven't played a solid offense yet, either.

 

And now the real test comes.

 

First we have to go to AZ, to play a reeling Cards team that can't afford another loss, and, more problematic, can put up loads of points in the passing game. Winning this game is going to be damn tough. Not to mention back-to-back West Coast trips (and it remains to be seen whether Jauron's decision to fly back in-between is a solid one).

 

After the bye week, the test REALLY begins - SD at home, obviously a tough, physical game - and then three division games in a row. Waiting this long to play our divisional rivals means that they'll have more game film to analyze (then again, so will we), and that's never a good thing when Belichick is on the other sideline.

 

If the Bills can go 3-2 or even 2-3 down that stretch, it will be a major accomplishment. Nomatter what, the next five games (six weeks) should give us a clear indication as to whether this team is really playoff-ready.

 

I agree that cautious optimism is required at this point and that there is room for some improvement, particularly on the Offensive and Defensive lines. That being said, AZ is going to be without Boldin and thus will have only a half of their normal aerial firepower. On top of that, they have not played a team with as solid a pass D as ours during the season. The Jests were and are one of the worst secondaries in the league. Further, we have played three teams with very solid Ds. Seattle's D is solid, Jags are very good and the Raiders have many fewer problems on D than they do with the O. We played well against all three of those teams in the second half when it counted. The team we have put together this year is finding itself early and is still coming away with victories. I think this week the team will have a much faster start to the game and by the time SD rolls into town in three weeks, this team will be at top level.

 

As for the five games after the bye week, I think Buffalo can go 4-1 or even 5-0. I think we can beat SD at home. They still don't have a very solid passing attack and they haven't run the ball nearly as effectively this season as in the past. Miami's trick plays won't be novel when we play them. That should be a W. The Jests are always a tough game, either home or away, but they haven't exactly been playing top notch teams and even last week when they scored 56, AZ put up 35 on their D. They have a weak secondary and our corps of receivers is solid. That should be another W. The NE game is the one I have questions about. At NE is always tough and they will be up for that game as it may have divisional implications come playoff time. Still, we have a better chance of winning this game than we have in a long time. The Monday Night game against Cleveland should be another win. Even with all that money they spent, their D is still terrible and their QB looks completely lost. At home on MNF, we should win that game as well. Absolute worst case scenario, I see us being 8-2 after 10 games, and that should put us in pretty good position come playoff time.

[JasoninMT]

Those passing stats are skewed imho by the Jets game...

 

If you have to pass, you will, and that's why their passing offense looks so good right now.

 

E James isn't close to the player he used to be. Their rushing attack doesn't scare me.

 

Sans Boldin, and with Warner's Picks/fumbles... it'll probably not be as easy for them... Of course we're going to be down McGee, so that'll also impact things...

 

I think it'll be a close game - and I also think the Bills will find a way... because they've been able to for 3 straight games, that gives them confidence which is key to a comeback win.

 

I'll say 20-17 Bills

[Astrobot]

Add to that Lindell kicking in a dome, TE's evolving chemistry with Evans, and Schouman picking up some slack.

23-14, Billssss.

[Alaska Darin]

Thanks for the sarcastic remark, I know where St. Louis is. The point is two longer trips in a row.

St Louis isn't a long trip from Buffalo. It's barely 90 minutes.

[canbuffan34]

Currently:

 

Arizona rated #4 in passing offense at 290.8YPG

Bills rated #12 @ 217.5YPG

Nod to Arizona

 

Buffalo is #6 in NFL Pass Defense with 168.5 YPG/6.17YPA

Arizona rated #16 in Pass Defense with 204.5YPG

Nod to Bills

 

+122YPG in favor of Arizona Passing

+ 13YPG in favor of Bills Passing

Nod to Arizona for passing game

 

Arizona is rated #14 in the NFL in rushing defense @ 101.3YPG

Buffalo is rated #18 in the NFL in rushing defense @ 112YPG

Nod to Arizona

 

Buffalo rated #20 in Rushing offense at 102YPG

Arizona rated #25 in rusing offense at 87YPG

Nod to Bills

 

-25YPG rushing for Arizona

+0.7YPG rushing for Bills

Nod to Bills for rushing game

 

Like Arizona's chances if they pass a lot. Like Buffalo's chances if the Bills make them run.

Excellent summation of stats! Here's one you forgot to mention Bills #1 on 3rd down defense (run or pass)

[Cotton Fitzsimmons]

St Louis isn't a long trip from Buffalo. It's barely 90 minutes.

 

Agreed. Buffalo to St. Louis is 744 miles, per MapQuest. Now we're talking city center to city center here, so give or take a few miles. You could make it in about 11 hours by automobile per the turn by turn directions.

 

Now, using the airrouting.com website, we input the data, flying from Buffalo Niagara INTL to Lambert St. Louis INTL at an avg. speed of 460 Kts, it yields a trip time of 1 hour and 31 minutes. You were right on the money with 90 minutes Alaska Darin!

 

Taking this into account, there is no reason at all not to come back to Buffalo. This isn't even in the realm of a questionable decision by Dick Jauron. Come home, get a week of practice in and go to AZ.

[DrFishfinder]

Excellent summation of stats! Here's one you forgot to mention Bills #1 on 3rd down defense (run or pass)

Thanks!

[keepthefaith]

Agreed. Buffalo to St. Louis is 744 miles, per MapQuest. Now we're talking city center to city center here, so give or take a few miles. You could make it in about 11 hours by automobile per the turn by turn directions.

 

Now, using the airrouting.com website, we input the data, flying from Buffalo Niagara INTL to Lambert St. Louis INTL at an avg. speed of 460 Kts, it yields a trip time of 1 hour and 31 minutes. You were right on the money with 90 minutes Alaska Darin!

 

Taking this into account, there is no reason at all not to come back to Buffalo. This isn't even in the realm of a questionable decision by Dick Jauron. Come home, get a week of practice in and go to AZ.

 

I doubt the recent trend of keeping a team out west between games will continue. Teams will figure out that preparing in unfamiliar surroundings is more of a detriment than a longer flight to another time zone.

[ChasBB]

On weeks when Buffalo plays out west or mountain time zone, I wonder if they start their practice sessions later in the day so that their bodies get used to performing later in the day. Since the game starts at 4 PM EDT, I would think that they would want to do their hardest practicing at 4 PM EDT, as well.

[eball]

On weeks when Buffalo plays out west or mountain time zone, I wonder if they start their practice sessions later in the day so that their bodies get used to performing later in the day. Since the game starts at 4 PM EDT, I would think that they would want to do their hardest practicing at 4 PM EDT, as well.

I think it is MUCH more difficult for a WC team to orient themselves to playing at 10 am their time, than it is for an EC team to orient themselves to playing at 4.

 

Just my $.02. I don't think this trip is a "burden" upon the Bills -- no more so than a trip to Miami, in fact.