Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth...

[finknottle]

Carbon emissions rose faster than predicted last year, 3%. That is the worst-case scenario range of the IPCC's controversial predictions, and surprised experts because we are in a global economic slowdown. By IPCC's estimates, that puts us on track for an average global temperature rise of 11 degrees by the end of the century. Average rises of 3.5-9.5 degrees are believed to be sufficient to trigger massive global environmental changes (in the chaotic system sense).

 

http://www.nysun.com/national/global-warmi...-percent/86670/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...d=moreheadlines

[molson_golden2002]

Carbon emissions rose faster than predicted last year, 3%. That is the worst-case scenario range of the IPCC's controversial predictions, and surprised experts because we are in a global economic slowdown. By IPCC's estimates, that puts us on track for an average global temperature rise of 11 degrees by the end of the century. Average rises of 3.5-9.5 degrees are believed to be sufficient to trigger massive global environmental changes (in the chaotic system sense).

 

http://www.nysun.com/national/global-warmi...-percent/86670/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...d=moreheadlines

Do you get the feeling we are in a world of sh--?

[olivier in france]

Carbon emissions rose faster than predicted last year, 3%. That is the worst-case scenario range of the IPCC's controversial predictions, and surprised experts because we are in a global economic slowdown. By IPCC's estimates, that puts us on track for an average global temperature rise of 11 degrees by the end of the century. Average rises of 3.5-9.5 degrees are believed to be sufficient to trigger massive global environmental changes (in the chaotic system sense).

 

http://www.nysun.com/national/global-warmi...-percent/86670/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...d=moreheadlines

 

 

not that i want to sound like a sceptic but i wonder how they can have a such precise idea (+3%) of the carbon emissions on the planet...

[finknottle]

not that i want to sound like a sceptic but i wonder how they can have a such precise idea (+3%) of the carbon emissions on the planet...

 

Precise? No.

 

But you can look at the testing indicators you measured last time and conclude definitively that they rose by 3%. Of course it's only as good as the testing indicators, but refining them is how we keep graduate students employed. Over time the sampling model can be expected to approach reality.

 

It's like measuring inflation in the economy - no managable set of data gives you the 'real' answer. But if you measure prices by some combination of commodity prises, and that combination goes up 5% in a year, it is reasonable to say inflation is 5%.

[molson_golden2002]

Wow, this is pretty messed up, too:

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...2504159_pf.html

 

Gasoline shortages hit towns across the southeastern United States this week, sparking panic buying, long lines and high prices at stations from the small towns of northeast Alabama to Charlotte in the wake of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike.

 

In Atlanta, half of the gasoline stations were closed, according to AAA, which said the supply disruptions had taken place along two major petroleum product pipelines that have operated well below capacity since the hurricanes knocked offshore oil production and several refineries out of service along the Gulf of Mexico.

 

Drivers in Charlotte reported lines with as many as 60 cars waiting to fill up late Wednesday night, and a community college in Asheville, N.C., where most of the 25,000 students commute, canceled classes and closed down Wednesday afternoon for the rest of the week. Shortages also hit Nashville, Knoxville and Spartanburg, S.C., AAA said.

 

Terrance Bragg, a chef in Charlotte, made it to work only because his grandfather drove from a town an hour away with a 5-gallon plastic container of fuel for him. Three of his co-workers called and said they couldn't make it.

 

"I drove past nine or ten gasoline stations that were out of gas," Bragg said. "I had my GPS up looking for any gas in the area, from the mom-and-pop places to the corporate gas stations. Nothing. They were all taped off."

 

Liz Clasen-Kelly, associate director of a homeless assistance center in Charlotte, took the bus to work yesterday. On Wednesday night, she and her husband checked five stations that had no gas, passed a long line backed up onto the interstate highway and chose not to wait at an open gas station with 50 to 60 cars still lined up after 11 p.m.

 

"If we had waited in that line, our car wouldn't have made it," she said, adding that the gauge was pointing to empty. The bus yesterday took her 45 minutes longer than usual. "It makes you realize how addicted you are to convenience," she said.

 

In Atlanta, Jonathan Tyson, a Douglasville, Ga., resident who works for a company that does training for auto and RV franchise dealerships, ran out of fuel while waiting an hour in a line about 60 cars long to fill up his Land Rover. A man from the car behind helped push Tyson's vehicle down the road.

 

"It was crazy," Tyson said. "People were standing on side of road with gas cans saying they'd pay the person to run a [credit] card through just to get gas so they didn't run out before they got up to the pump themselves."

 

The city government, which uses 10,000 gallons a day, barred the public from two stations to make sure it could keep municipal vehicles running. On Wednesday night with his fuel gauge at empty, Al T. Nottage, a senior communications specialist in the Atlanta mayor's office, looked for fuel at six stations, all closed, then called AAA and said he had run out of gasoline. It brought him two gallons, enough to get to work yesterday.

[LongLiveRalph]

In Atlanta, half of the gasoline stations were closed, according to AAA, which said the supply disruptions had taken place along two major petroleum product pipelines that have operated well below capacity since the hurricanes knocked offshore oil production and several refineries out of service along the Gulf of Mexico.

 

The colonial pipeline that services many of the southern states is serviced mainly by tankers coming into Galveston. The pipeline is operating at 30% capacity right now, mainly because of refineries taken offline during the hurricane. It will be back up to 100%, but the timeframe is the question.

 

Other states, such as FL, who receive the majority of their fuel from terminals in Port Everglades and Miami, have seen no such shortages.

[StupidNation]

Most climate change is started by climate first then an increase of CO2, and if there is a 3% increase there is no link to increased temperatures. The last 11 years hasn't seen any global warming. Facts are we don't know. The 70's said global cooling, now it's global warming without global warming in the last 11 years. It was significantly warmer in the 13th century.

 

The fear-mongers of global warming have watched too many movies and haven't studied the issue on all sides. Still we should side with caution and try our best to reduce emissions for air quality alone.

[East Brady]

Yeah and solar winds are at a 50 year low!!! We're DOOOOMED!!!

[finknottle]

It was significantly warmer in the 13th century.

 

No - the misunderstanding about this is slowly assuming urban legend porportions.

 

First, as far as we know the Medieval Warming was localized to the North Atlantic and Europe. The Pacific and the Antartic appear to have been colder than normal in the same period. That's a huge difference. The best estimates (and they are very incomplete) suggest that the average global temperature during the period was a tiny fraction of a degree colder than it is now.

 

Second, surface water temperature in the North Atlantic was only 1 degree warmer than it is today. That's not much.

[DC Tom]

No - the misunderstanding about this is slowly assuming urban legend porportions.

 

First, as far as we know the Medieval Warming was localized to the North Atlantic and Europe. The Pacific and the Antartic appear to have been colder than normal in the same period. That's a huge difference. The best estimates (and they are very incomplete) suggest that the average global temperature during the period was a tiny fraction of a degree colder than it is now.

 

And Asia. There's reliable evidence (not records) for most of the Eurasian continent.

 

Second, surface water temperature in the North Atlantic was only 1 degree warmer than it is today. That's not much.

 

And yet...to hear the fear-mongers say it, another degree of ocean warming would be a disaster. Can't be that and "not much".

[StupidNation]

No - the misunderstanding about this is slowly assuming urban legend porportions.

 

I've read enough evidence to show it's not urban legend, but rather a point that global alarmists try to dismiss. DC pointed it out as well.

 

Also, the 1930's were hotter than now. The earth gets hotter and cooler. Those are facts, and how that happens no one knows.

[finknottle]

And Asia. There's reliable evidence (not records) for most of the Eurasian continent.

 

And yet...to hear the fear-mongers say it, another degree of ocean warming would be a disaster. Can't be that and "not much".

 

While I firmly believe in climate change, I fully accept that there are fear mongers on my side too.

 

I can't speak to what they may have been saying about water temperatures, but IMO surface temperature drives symptoms (hurricanes etc). The important thing are the deeper temperatures - when they change, the oceanic circulation patterns can shift. And that, ultimately, is what would be disasterous about climate change. It's not really about things getting warmer, it's about weather patterns shifting into a new equilibrium. If the Atlantic conveyor stops, for example, temperatures in Western Europe drop to those of southern Alaska. Changes in moisture airflows are not as easily accomidated by agriculture as changes in temperature. Anyway, I believe the thinking is that a change in deeper temperatures of 2-4 degrees would probably trigger systematic disruption.