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How improved is our defense?


Fingon

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The run defense has been great. The last 3 years, no matter who the other teams feature back was, you could pencil in 100 yards for them before the game started. This year, no team has rushed for 100, and no single back has rushed for more than 55. This is also against two teams with very good running games (oakland and jax) who had the lead and were trying to kill clock for much of the second half. Trent is getting a lot of credit for the 4th quarter comebacks, and its well deserved, but I think that the run defense deserves a lot of credit as well. In 05-07, if a team had a lead with under 5 mins, they could run the ball for a couple first downs, make us burn our time outs, and seal the game. Now, we're shutting down the run in the second half and giving our offense a chance to come back, it's great to see.

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small sample size.........by the end of the year the % will be a lot closer to the other numbers then to 18

Hmmm...I'm actually doing t-distribution analyses for normally distributed populations with a sample size of less than 25. If I get around to it, I may try to run some forecasts over 16 games, but i doubt it.

 

I agree the sample size is small, but to me it does indicate a trend or perhaps more accurately, I WANT the trend to be there, so I find numbers that apparently validate it....bottom line, our D is noticeably better at stopping 3rd down conversions, and that's probably a key contributing factor to us winning games.

 

BTW, what are considered "good" numbers for 3rd down stopping percentages? Where could I find that?

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small sample size.........by the end of the year the % will be a lot closer to the other numbers then to 18

dunno what else to say about this statement than 'duh'.

 

the 2000 ravens, one of the best defenses ever, gave up 72/211 which = 34%

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dunno what else to say about this statement than 'duh'.

 

the 2000 ravens, one of the best defenses ever, gave up 72/211 which = 34%

 

tell that to the other poster - he was the one comparing this year's number (after 3 games) to full season numbers, which is obviously useless

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dunno what else to say about this statement than 'duh'.

 

the 2000 ravens, one of the best defenses ever, gave up 72/211 which = 34%

 

Well then, with 45, 37, 47, 36, 38, 36, 42 and 37 our defenses were within 4% of one of the best defenses ever in 5 of 8 seasons......guess this wasn't really a problem? In another article it says that the Bills focused on 3rd down defense all off season, understanding that teams tend to run limited routes, etc. to prevent QB injury, etc. The early results are in...we're better!

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Well then, with 45, 37, 47, 36, 38, 36, 42 and 37 our defenses were within 4% of one of the best defenses ever in 5 of 8 seasons......guess this wasn't really a problem? In another article it says that the Bills focused on 3rd down defense all off season, understanding that teams tend to run limited routes, etc. to prevent QB injury, etc. The early results are in...we're better!

 

IMO, the improvements in 3rd down defense is a direct result of the improvements in run defense.......a 3rd and 8 is a lot easier to defend then a 3rd and 2

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Gotta say, from just watching the games and doing no statistical analysis of my own, I think the two biggest areas where we improved were run defense and 3rd down defense. You can see that teams cannot consistently get yardage on us. Every once in a while we do give up a run, but it's not three or four plays in a row like last year. Same thing with the 3rd down defense. It's probably that these two statistics are related in that stopping the run on first and second keeps the offense in 3rd and long, which allows us to tee-off on the QB and let him make the underneath throw and force the punt.

 

I don't know that we have seen defense like this since Big Pat was here. Even 5 years ago when we had a "good" defense we struggled to dominate opponents when they took it right to the teeth of the defense. Now we may not dominate anyone (as of yet), but we certainly are able to make plays when it counts against decent teams (i.e. dictating the game).

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IMO, the improvements in 3rd down defense is a direct result of the improvements in run defense.......a 3rd and 8 is a lot easier to defend then a 3rd and 2

 

I think we're getting closer to the truth with this post. Yeah, the Jags burned us on a third and 12 with a draw, but otherwise, it's what we're doing on first and second down that's causing the big change in third down effeciency.

 

Again, thanks Marcus!

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