Can Obama Run The Clock Out?

[molson_golden2002]

Polls, polls, polls!

 

Florida might even go Democrat, as might Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado and New Mexico

 

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x4141.xml?ReleaseID=1216

 

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections...lorida_Poll.pdf

 

 

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/default.aspx

 

Of course there is a long way to go. I hope McCain isn't the Bills and Obama the Raiders from this weekend

[Chilly]

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/43_days_to_g...he_pendulum.php

[molson_golden2002]

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/43_days_to_g...he_pendulum.php

 

From the article:

 

 

Note how easy it was for Obama to erase a small McCain lead (note, too, that it had taken McCain months of attack ads and a successful GOP convention to build up even a small lead)

[molson_golden2002]

More interesting analysis:

 

 

 

In Colorado, he has picked up votes from Independents, Democrats, and upscale voters. In Aug. 15-21, before the conventions, Quinnipiac found McCain ahead by 46 to 44 percent among independents. In their current poll, conducted Sept. 14-21, Obama is now ahead by a whopping 51 to 40 percent. Obama’s support among Democrats has increased from 86 to 91 percent It also increased in the more cosmopolitan, upscale, better educated Denver/Boulder area from 56 to 64 percent. That suggests that the Independents he is attracting are the Democratic-leaning ones from this area rather than the libertarians from the less populated parts of the state.

 

Clearly, the financial crisis is a factor. But I’d point to two other telltale signs.The first is that McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin to be his vice-president is beginning to backfire. (Amidst all my errors, I’ll take credit for predicting this.) It seems to be a factor in the movement of women and college-educated voters--and of Democrats--back into the Obama column. Quinnipiac asked Colorado voters whom they would prefer as president, Palin or Democratic choice Joe Biden. Men chose Palin by 46 to 44 percent, while women chose Biden by 47 to 37 percent. Independents preferred Biden by 50 to 37 percent and Democrats--presumably including Hillary Clinton backers McCain wanted to attract--by 86 to 4 percent. 32 percent of Independents said the choice of Palin made them less likely to vote for McCain; only 13 percent said the choice of Biden made them less likely to vote for Obama.

 

The Survey USA and Washington Post-ABC polls didn’t ask about Virginia voters’ reaction to Palin, but showed the same movement among the same groups as in Colorado. There was, however, another factor that appeared in the Washington Post-ABC poll. There was a change in which candidate Virginia voters thought was “more honest and trustworthy” --from 44 to 38 percent McCain in the poll released Sept. 7 to 43 to 41 percent Obama in the poll released Sept. 21. That could be a result of another McCain strategy backfiring: the rash of ridiculous negative ads, highlighted by the ads claiming that Obama had defamed Palin by taking his statement about “lipstick on a pig” entirely out of context and the ad claiming that he was a supporter of sex education for kindergartners.

 

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/a...n-stumbles.aspx

[KD in CA]

While I've expected Obama to win this thing from day one, those of you deeply analyzing polls should take them with a grain of salt. I firmly belive in the 'everyone is a Deomcrat at cocktail parties' theory and think that McCain will do better than whatever the final polls will suggest. This is more true than ever this year because of Obama's race. No one is going to tell a pollster that there's no way in hell they are voting for a black guy (or one who -- as far as Hillary knows -- isn't a Muslim).

 

If it's still close come November, we could have an RCow special on our hands; exit polls saying Obama, voters saying McCain.

 

Thus, I think the real question is not can Obama hang on, it's can McCain hang on and keep it close.

[John Adams]

Thanks for the disclaimer. I thought you might be objective.

[IDBillzFan]

While I've expected Obama to win this thing from day one, those of you deeply analyzing polls should take them with a grain of salt. I firmly belive in the 'everyone is a Deomcrat at cocktail parties' theory and think that McCain will do better than whatever the final polls will suggest. This is more true than ever this year because of Obama's race. No one is going to tell a pollster that there's no way in hell they are voting for a black guy (or one who -- as far as Hillary knows -- isn't a Muslim).

 

If it's still close come November, we could have an RCow special on our hands; exit polls saying Obama, voters saying McCain.

 

Thus, I think the real question is not can Obama hang on, it's can McCain hang on and keep it close.

The larger issue for McCain right now is that it's becoming increasingly clear that Obama may have to change his running mate. Biden is falling apart at the mouth. From criticizing the Obama ad that attacked McCain's computer skills (Says Biden: "“I didn’t know we did it and if I had anything to do with it, we would have never done it”) to agreeing with McCain that the AIG bailout is a bad idea after Obama ran an add criticizing McCain for his position on AIG, Biden is doing everything to embarrass Obama, and I'm beginning to honestly believe that there is a lot of truth to the rumor that Obama realizes he made a mistake not taking Hillary and is looking for a way to dump Biden 's mouth and go with Hillary's.

 

Personally, I hope he does make the switch and run away with the election. Watching Obama have to deal with Hillary for four years would be terrific drama.

[ExiledInIllinois]

No.

 

It is still the mid 3rd 1/4.

[PearlHowardman]

Biden is falling apart at the mouth. From criticizing the Obama ad that attacked McCain's computer skills (Says Biden: "“I didn’t know we did it and if I had anything to do with it, we would have never done it”) to agreeing with McCain that the AIG bailout is a bad idea after Obama ran an add criticizing McCain for his position on AIG, Biden is doing everything to embarrass Obama, and I'm beginning to honestly believe that there is a lot of truth to the rumor that Obama realizes he made a mistake not taking Hillary and is looking for a way to dump Biden 's mouth and go with Hillary's.

 

You nailed it!!

 

But I think once the Democratic party convention ended you can't change President or VP nominees.

[KD in CA]

You nailed it!!

 

But I think once the Democratic party convention ended you can't change President or VP nominees.

 

 

Since when do election rules apply to the 'rats? Senator Torch anyone?

[elegantelliotoffen]

You nailed it!!

 

But I think once the Democratic party convention ended you can't change President or VP nominees.

 

Not true, just ask Thomas Eagleton.

[molson_golden2002]

Biden's "Gaffe" doesn't seem to be doing too much:

 

More voters trust Obama to deal with the economy, and he currently has a big edge as the candidate who is more in tune with the economic problems Americans now face. He also has a double-digit advantage on handling the current problems on Wall Street, and as a result, there has been a rise in his overall support. The poll found that, among likely voters, Obama now leads McCain by 52 percent to 43 percent. Two weeks ago, in the days immediately following the Republican National Convention, the race was essentially even, with McCain at 49 percent and Obama at 47 percent.

 

As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...ml?hpid=topnews

 

Black President?

[Bishop Hedd]

Polls, polls, polls! Florida might even go Democrat, as might Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado and New Mexicohttp://www.quinnipiac.edu/x4141.xml?ReleaseID=1216http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections...lorida_Poll.pdfhttp://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/default.aspxOf course there is a long way to go. I hope McCain isn't the Bills and Obama the Raiders from this weekend

It should be all over for Palin/McCain shortly. In an act of sheer desperation Fox is reporting that Palin/McCain will go negative in a big way with the Wright/Ayers crap all over again. Should all be over shortly.

[molson_golden2002]

It should be all over for Palin/McCain shortly. In an act of sheer desperation Fox is reporting that Palin/McCain will go negative in a big way with the Wright/Ayers crap all over again. Should all be over shortly.

Or Bush will stir up a foreign policy situation that McCain will use to divert attention away from the free market f-up

 

6 weeks is an eternity

[finknottle]

Or Bush will stir up a foreign policy situation that McCain will use to divert attention away from the free market f-up

 

Is this before or after the space aliens land at the request of the the Karl Rove, the CFR and the Rockefellers to force the banking bailout on us?

[YellowLinesandArmadillos]

While I've expected Obama to win this thing from day one, those of you deeply analyzing polls should take them with a grain of salt. I firmly belive in the 'everyone is a Deomcrat at cocktail parties' theory and think that McCain will do better than whatever the final polls will suggest. This is more true than ever this year because of Obama's race. No one is going to tell a pollster that there's no way in hell they are voting for a black guy (or one who -- as far as Hillary knows -- isn't a Muslim).

 

If it's still close come November, we could have an RCow special on our hands; exit polls saying Obama, voters saying McCain.

 

Thus, I think the real question is not can Obama hang on, it's can McCain hang on and keep it close.

The Wilder effect... I think there is some truth in both what you say and what the previous poster put forward. I do think Palin's rw attitudes and flip-flops on pork issues has helped her. The nagging inexperience should McCain kick the bucket can't help. And McCain's nasty campaign ads and tactics that have been dogged by the media as dishonest.

 

On the other side Obama attacks haven't helped, but he has been consistent on the economic front. I don't agree with him on the tax issue, but he appears to have a plan and McCain just talks about a nefarious reform idea that we have all heard before and even there it appear that he is inconsistent. That can't help him.

 

Interestingly, by Obama remaining low key has helped him, despite the obvious inexperience he has on a lot of things, his message has been much more concise. McCain's struggle has been to separate himself from Bush, yet still support unpopular Republican economic principals. His curmudgeon style hasn't helped. I think Romney's positive upbeat style, knowledge and experience would have been a much better pick for him and would have made McCain competitive in the NE, in states such as MA and CT.

[molson_golden2002]

Is this before or after the space aliens land at the request of the the Karl Rove, the CFR and the Rockefellers to force the banking bailout on us?

Ya, that could never happen, no never.

 

Signed, A niave person

[Chilly]

On the other side Obama attacks haven't helped, but he has been consistent on the economic front. I don't agree with him on the tax issue, but he appears to have a plan and McCain just talks about a nefarious reform idea that we have all heard before and even there it appear that he is inconsistent. That can't help him.

 

Wait, what? McCain doesn't have a tax plan?

[ExiledInIllinois]

Biden's "Gaffe" doesn't seem to be doing too much:

 

 

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...ml?hpid=topnews

 

Black President?

 

Yep... Not doing much (gaffe)... Too bad the economy is in the sh*tter. Maybe he has a certain amount of "teflon."

 

People want blood on Wall Street... I say give it to 'em... Burn the bastards, as long as this sentiment reigns... Biden can say anything he damn well pleases.

[Chilly]

People want blood on Wall Street... I say give it to 'em... Burn the bastards, as long as this sentiment reigns... Biden can say anything he damn well pleases.