Jump to content

Will The Bailout Work?


Recommended Posts

Retroactive salary/bonus decreases? I realize a lot of these guys invest their own money, but if they are gambling with people's futures, why not risk their own? What, you say they wouldn't have the balls to do it?

 

I am joking, mostly...

 

If you're talking about disgorging pay for companies that failed, consider that about 2/3 of the bonuses were paid in stock, which would be worthless upon a bankruptcy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 77
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Window dressing - the biggest (cash) pay on Wall Street doesn't go to the sr. execs but to the stars.

 

Yeah, it's window dressing.

 

When five million dollar bond issues backed by four million worth of performing mortgages on three million worth of real property is valued at precisely ZERO dollars, I think arguing the reality of window dressing is a little specious, however.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I still think it's a mistake for the gubmint to do ANYTHING at this point. Let the market work through the pain now, it'll be stronger in the future.

 

Says the guy whose life depends on a commission.. :rolleyes:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, it's window dressing.

 

When five million dollar bond issues backed by four million worth of performing mortgages on three million worth of real property is valued at precisely ZERO dollars, I think arguing the reality of window dressing is a little specious, however.

 

Just reiterating my sig line.

 

Of course, after watching today's House hearing, I would be making that argument in public either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So they walk away penniless? I assume that is what you are implying. If so, cool.

 

They don't walk away penniless by any stretch, but the net worth takes a major hit. Dick Fuld's stock in Lehman was worth about $700 mil last year - he sold it last week for about $20k. Amazing, few tears were shed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They don't walk away penniless by any stretch, but the net worth takes a major hit. Dick Fuld's stock in Lehman was worth about $700 mil last year - he sold it last week for about $20k. Amazing, few tears were shed.

 

Maybe he was holding the sep 7.50 puts :rolleyes:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess you have to consider what "work" means. Given that abuot 50% of our economy is at risk due to this mess, it will, if it's the proper legislation implemented properly, it could mitigate the situation but people will still be hurtin. Credit is particularly tough to get which will further constrict the economy.

 

The key is to have oversight. This current crisis exists in part because we trusted these institutions to do the right thing. Good luck with that.

 

By the way, I have to chuckle that Carly "Golden Chute" Fiorina is no longer very visible as part of the McCain campaign. I think they're less pissed at her "he can't run a company" statement than worried that she EPITOMIZES the type of CEO they want to run away from.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess you have to consider what "work" means. Given that abuot 50% of our economy is at risk due to this mess, it will, if it's the proper legislation implemented properly, it could mitigate the situation but people will still be hurtin. Credit is particularly tough to get which will further constrict the economy.

 

The key is to have oversight. This current crisis exists in part because we trusted these institutions to do the right thing. Good luck with that.

 

By the way, I have to chuckle that Carly "Golden Chute" Fiorina is no longer very visible as part of the McCain campaign. I think they're less pissed at her "he can't run a company" statement than worried that she EPITOMIZES the type of CEO they want to run away from.

 

How did these institutions do the wrong thing?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How did these institutions do the wrong thing?

I expect FBI investigations will reveal more...although hopefully there wasn't any illegal activity.

 

So we can talk about extending easy credit to unqualified lendees...predatory lending...and take it from there but it's quite a long story already hashed out in a number of threads. Fundamentally these industries were all deregulated years ago and left to "grow and blossom" without any kind of real oversight by any third party. And probably not as much accountability as they should have had.

 

I believe citizens should bear some of the burden, as they partook of the bad financial decisions...unfortunately many of us did not (if it sounds too good to be true....). I personally don't want to bail them all out but in this case I don't know that we have much choice because it will get so much worse for us all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The other end of this bailout is already up and running. It has been for months. The smart execs have been jumping ship and pooling together resources in their own asset management groups. The FDIC has been custodian for untold amounts of securities and property and in a panic since the 1st of the year. There is NOTHING to prevent the revolving door of sales of securities if this is passed.

 

There has been no mention of Level 3 assets in all of the bailout talk. $700 billion will be gone through in 1 to 6 weeks depending on the level of confidence of the people. If it is one week and things continue to implode, this discussion is moot. In reality, if the government really plans to undertake a bailout of this magnitude and it isn't just a ruse for war and global restructuring, it will take 10's of trillions to erase all of the damage...at best. When a default swap that is valued at 10 cents on the dollar for payout ends up needing to be fulfilled.....it gets paid at 100 cents. The government can continue to pick and choose who goes under depending on who holds both sides of these contracts. There has been a quasi-clearinghouse set up as we have been going along, but it is nothing more than an urban chop shop. If Goldman holds 30 Billion of WAMU swaps that are worth $1.5 billion on their off-balance sheet account...guess what? The government steps in and pays the 30 billion if WAMU gets folded into Citibank. "Oh...this is great for the taxpayer! We will be making money hand over fist! Buy low..sell high!" Last time I looked...1.5 - 30 = (28.5)

 

We are at a point of no return. Like a choose your own adventure book, we get to the same sad end. It is just a matter of how and how long to get there. If by the grace of God things return to some sense of normalcy over the next few years, I will have a job for 10 years working all the crap the government will spit out. I don't expect that to happen, and I am not rushing into that position right now. Knowing what was happening, I have taken the past year to be with family and straighten things out in all aspects of life. It looks like some are catching on to the big picture, and how can you not at this point?

 

If you haven't done so...make friends with your neighbors. If you live in an urban setting, make sure you know where you can go outside the city for a while if need be. It will take 48 hours for the complete gutting of this country if this bailout doesn't work. I have been talking all along as a message of preparation. My time to be upset has long passed. I'm just going to throw on a little Emerson Lake & Palmer, Karnevil #9....and let it loop for the next few months.

 

Get into that.....get into that....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Uhhm, my understanding is that the $700 bn is for Level 3 assets, because they are the ones for which there's absolutely no market for. And exactly how did CDSs end up in Level 3 assets in your world? If a CDS is a Level 3 asset, then we have indeed hit the Apocalypse.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Uhhm, my understanding is that the $700 bn is for Level 3 assets, because they are the ones for which there's absolutely no market for. And exactly how did CDSs end up in Level 3 assets in your world? If a CDS is a Level 3 asset, then we have indeed hit the Apocalypse.

 

What city do you live in?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...