Evans' Contract Status

[The Dean]

I think Modrak's very adept at handling the amateur scouting side of personnel. Guy, I'm not so high on with pro scouting. Jauron may have a bias toward defense, but has been around the NFL and its players for awhile.

 

IMO, a GM ought to come from the personnel arena, not the business side of the house. In that way, when a tough decision needs to be made, they can take their own experience and combine that with their lieutenants. My greatest fear is decisions are made totally by committee at OBD. While this can be advantageous, sometimes a leader has a particular feeling toward something which may not be popular. I recall reading in The GM by Tom Callahan that Ernie Accorsi was convinced that Eli Manning would be a special player. Not everyone was on board, and Accorsi took a lot of heat. Needless to say, he's been vindicated. That decision may not have been made without a guy like Ernie.

 

In no way am I saying Brandon is a dunce or incapable of being GM. I just think teams are defined more often than not by the quality of their personnel people, GM included. It's best to have as many proven talent evaluators as possible.

 

 

I understand what you are saying, but there is more than one way to get the job done. For starts, Brandon is not a GM, so that should help with one of your issues. Neither, BTW, is Scott Pioli, if I remember correctly.

 

Since you like the personnel-driven GM model, instead of thinking of Brandon as GM, you should think of "Modrak and Guy" as the GM, with a lot of contribution from Jauron. I'm sure Brandon isn't making talent decisions, so he is really irrelevant in that conversation, I believe. IMO, since the Bills haven't adopted the "strong GM" position, and have, instead, a team management approach, they are much less likely to make boneheaded decisions that might be made by many lesser "strong" GMs.

 

But, that doesn't mean that Jauron, Guy or Modrack won't champion a particular pick, acquisition or player, or that bold moves can't be made. It simply means that, the discussion will HAVE to happen, and one guy can't put his personal stamp on the team (for better or worse). Now, you might be right that, that approach may turn out to be as successful as those made by one of the few great strong GMs. But, the team approach likely protects against the disastrous decisions of weaker (or crazy) "strong" GMs like Matt Millen, TD, Al Davis (yes, I know he isn't officially GM), etc. As there are very few GREAT GM's, the team approach might be the more practical approach in this NFL, for many teams.

 

So far, I'd have to say it looks pretty good, in the Bills' case. I'm not sure any team has a better personnel record than our Bills over the past three years. As you note, Modrak is outstanding at identifying college prospects. And, while Guy is a popular punching bag around here, the bulk of the Bills FA moves have been stellar, lately. I don't hear anyone bashing the Bills for signing Walker and Dockery, this year.

[BillsVet]

I understand what you are saying, but there is more than one way to get the job done. For starts, Brandon is not a GM, so that should help with one of your issues. Neither, BTW, is Scott Pioli, if I remember correctly.

 

Since you like the personnel-driven GM model, instead of thinking of Brandon as GM, you should think of "Modrak and Guy" as the GM, with a lot of contribution from Jauron. I'm sure Brandon isn't making talent decisions, so he is really irrelevant in that conversation, I believe. IMO, since the Bills haven't adopted the "strong GM" position, and have, instead, a team management approach, they are much less likely to make boneheaded decisions that might be made by many lesser "strong" GMs.

 

But, that doesn't mean that Jauron, Guy or Modrack won't champion a particular pick, acquisition or player, or that bold moves can't be made. It simply means that, the discussion will HAVE to happen, and one guy can't put his personal stamp on the team (for better or worse). Now, you might be right that, that approach may turn out to be as successful as those made by one of the few great strong GMs. But, the team approach likely protects against the disastrous decisions of weaker (or crazy) "strong" GMs like Matt Millen, TD, Al Davis (yes, I know he isn't officially GM), etc. As there are very few GREAT GM's, the team approach might be the more practical approach in this NFL, for many teams.

 

So far, I'd have to say it looks pretty good, in the Bills' case. I'm not sure any team has a better personnel record than our Bills over the past three years. As you note, Modrak is outstanding at identifying college prospects. And, while Guy is a popular punching bag around here, the bulk of the Bills FA moves have been stellar, lately. I don't hear anyone bashing the Bills for signing Walker and Dockery, this year.

 

I understand where you are coming from. The team GM approach has advantages. I do believe there are capable individuals who can handle the GM role, but the team felt keeping the same people in the front office was more conducive to their success. I can't judge this yet, because the season and the Brandon era has only begun.

 

While we don't know all the inner-workings of the front office, Buffalo's model is unique. Not saying it can't work, but it's not conventional. The NE model is certainly different, though I'm more apt to trust a Belichick/Pioli combo given their successes. Additionally, Pioli's been in pro personnel for 15 years whereas Brandon's only now beginning.

 

Ultimately, the results will tell the story. Buffalo is in year 3 (and what I feel is the final year) of rebuilding. They've started well, and the FA acquisitions from 07 and 08 are contributing. I believe as the team improves, tougher decisions will need to be made. Which players should they prevent from hitting UFA, how much to dip into UFA, which areas to draft, whom to draft, et al.

 

Now that the roster has been overhauled, the true test begins. Rebuilding is the easy part. Staying successful long term is much harder, and that's why few teams have been able to win for more than 3 years. I cite Polian a lot, but he's the man who's headed that organization to a SB and 6 straight 10+ win seasons. We'll see if Buffalo's version of GM can work.

[The Dean]

I cite Polian a lot, but he's the man who's headed that organization to a SB and 6 straight 10+ win seasons. We'll see if Buffalo's version of GM can work.

 

Excellent conversation, Vet.

[UConn James]

Excellent conversation, Vet.

 

 

I'd just add that before Russ Brandon was named COO, he reportedly was spending a lot of time with Modrak and Guy learning about that side of the front office. Will he ever be a great talent evaluator? Dunno. The current group/several VP approach will likely be used for as long as Ralph signs the paychecks; and this group has shown it works as a team rather well. Brandon has a background in baseball, and it may be owing to that, that I kind of see him as a Theo Epstein-type Young Turk. Not apples-to-apples by any means, but similar in concentrating on business and stat side and getting more experience on the in-person/tape study evaluation side. I think it would be wise for him to always have someone like Modrak (should he be lured by another team, tho Modrak seems to be happy with the situation/set-up in Buffalo as opposed to what other teams would want him to be doing as their GM).

[nucci]

Excellent conversation, Vet.

I enjoyed it too. Nice when it's football talk and not personal insults. Thanks.

[The Dean]

 

I'd just add that before Russ Brandon was named COO, he reportedly was spending a lot of time with Modrak and Guy learning about that side of the front office. Will he ever be a great talent evaluator? Dunno. The current group/several VP approach will likely be used for as long as Ralph signs the paychecks; and this group has shown it works as a team rather well. Brandon has a background in baseball, and it may be owing to that, that I kind of see him as a Theo Epstein-type Young Turk. Not apples-to-apples by any means, but similar in concentrating on business and stat side and getting more experience on the in-person/tape study evaluation side. I think it would be wise for him to always have someone like Modrak (should he be lured by another team, tho Modrak seems to be happy with the situation/set-up in Buffalo as opposed to what other teams would want him to be doing as their GM).

 

 

I have to believe that most teams use a team approach, to some degree. The key is, is their ONE guy with the final say. Most teams have a GM that gets credit, or blame, for the decisions. With the Bills, I'm sure Ralph knows who championed what players, and who pushed to make a bold decision that either worked well, or backfired, but we as fans don't really know who to credit/blame, for the most part. Since rumor has it, it was Ralph who championed the Wright pick, I wonder if he takes the blame within the group. I would be surprised if he didn't.

 

But, back to Polian briefly. My recollection of him here, was that he was a great talent evaluator, but had some issues dealing with agents and, even players, during contract negotiation (renegotiation). I think he had that same reputation with the Panthers. It doesn't seem to be as big of an issue with him, anymore. I wonder if, in his big President position, he delegates some of that work to someone.

 

Talent evaluation, trade negotiation, contract negotiation and renegotiation, salary cap management...that's a lot of work for one guy, and very few people are likely to be expert in all of those functions. Throw in all of the marketing and community relations stuff, and it's clear that delegation is needed. One of the reasons Marv gave for leaving is, there was too much non-football stuff that the GM is ultimately responsible for.

 

But, give Marv credit for transitioning the team from a dysfunctional "strong" GM model, to the team management style they have now. I believe Marv saw that he had good, knowledgeable people in the organization, and finally gave them the opportunity to really contribute to the team. By his actions, he taught these guys how to successfully run a team management system, and I think they have taken those lessons to heart.

 

The last three rebuilding years have gone very well, I think most of us agree on that. As Vet says, the real proof will be in how they handle the next three or four years. I am pretty optimistic.

[The Dean]

 

I'd just add that before Russ Brandon was named COO, he reportedly was spending a lot of time with Modrak and Guy learning about that side of the front office. Will he ever be a great talent evaluator? Dunno. The current group/several VP approach will likely be used for as long as Ralph signs the paychecks; and this group has shown it works as a team rather well. Brandon has a background in baseball, and it may be owing to that, that I kind of see him as a Theo Epstein-type Young Turk. Not apples-to-apples by any means, but similar in concentrating on business and stat side and getting more experience on the in-person/tape study evaluation side. I think it would be wise for him to always have someone like Modrak (should he be lured by another team, tho Modrak seems to be happy with the situation/set-up in Buffalo as opposed to what other teams would want him to be doing as their GM).

 

 

I watch the games here, with a guy who knows Modrak (not best friends or anything). He has a house nearby, and supposedly is very happy with the current state of his life. I think the Bills will take good care of Tom, and I don't think he wants to change his routine. Problems might arise if the Bills decide, one day, to hire a big name GM, who doesn't want Tom to be located in Florida. If that happened, I could see him hooking up with the Jags, potentially...but, that's just my speculation.

[UConn James]

But, give Marv credit for transitioning the team from a dysfunctional "strong" GM model, to the team management style they have now. I believe Marv saw that he had good, knowledgeable people in the organization, and finally gave them the opportunity to really contribute to the team. By his actions, he taught these guys how to successfully run a team management system, and I think they have taken those lessons to heart.

 

The last three rebuilding years have gone very well, I think most of us agree on that. As Vet says, the real proof will be in how they handle the next three or four years. I am pretty optimistic.

 

Agreed. If the Bills win a Super Bowl in the near future with the core of players Marv helped bring in (and I think this is possible, especially with the light at the end of the tunnel we're seeing now), I hope Ralph ponies up for a ring for Marv.

[Dan]

Excellent discussion going on here. Several good points have been brought up. However, I'm not sure that I see the staying successful long term as being much harder than the rebuilding. I would suggest that the most difficult part of staying successful is having the money to pay the players. Deciding which ones to keep should be fairly easy, because you see their contribution to the team first hand.

 

However, having the money or convincing the owner to spend the money will almost certainly limit who can be kept. Which, I think, is why it's so important to bring in team-first oriented players. Those are the guys most likely to give you a home town discount, as opposed to the Clements-type that insist on testing the FA market and going to the highest bidder.

 

I think this concern - having money to stay competitive long-term - was the primary factor in the Peters saga this summer. It's imperative for the Bills to sign guys to contracts and manage when those contracts expire and players need to be re-signed. If too many player contract expire at the same time, then you have too much cash going out in a single year. And this is probably an area where Brandon should excel. The initial talent evaluations have been done, the contracts negotiated, he'll just have to manage the ship and keep it from toppling.

 

It will get interesting though to see how and if all the young guys are re-signed. This will be key to any long-term success of the Bills.

 

 

I understand where you are coming from. The team GM approach has advantages. I do believe there are capable individuals who can handle the GM role, but the team felt keeping the same people in the front office was more conducive to their success. I can't judge this yet, because the season and the Brandon era has only begun.

 

While we don't know all the inner-workings of the front office, Buffalo's model is unique. Not saying it can't work, but it's not conventional. The NE model is certainly different, though I'm more apt to trust a Belichick/Pioli combo given their successes. Additionally, Pioli's been in pro personnel for 15 years whereas Brandon's only now beginning.

 

Ultimately, the results will tell the story. Buffalo is in year 3 (and what I feel is the final year) of rebuilding. They've started well, and the FA acquisitions from 07 and 08 are contributing. I believe as the team improves, tougher decisions will need to be made. Which players should they prevent from hitting UFA, how much to dip into UFA, which areas to draft, whom to draft, et al.

 

Now that the roster has been overhauled, the true test begins. Rebuilding is the easy part. Staying successful long term is much harder, and that's why few teams have been able to win for more than 3 years. I cite Polian a lot, but he's the man who's headed that organization to a SB and 6 straight 10+ win seasons. We'll see if Buffalo's version of GM can work.

[Steely Dan]

Brandon's personnel experience falls far short of many successful GM's in the league. Most GM's begin their career on the personnel side of the team, either as an amateur scout or in pro personel. Guys like Polian, AJ Smith, Jerry Reese, Ted Thompson, and Scott Pioli all worked in personnel before graduating to GM or VP of Personel roles. Brandon is at a distinct disadvantage here, and he relies heavily on Modrak, Guy, and Jauron for personel guidance.

 

As for Burress, he's 31 and took a deal significantly less than Fitzgerald and Berrian. Fitzgerald got a whopping 30M guaranteed and Berrian's new deal includes 16M of the same. I have a feeling Evans' people are pushing the point that Evans is younger and on the upswing, while Burress is not getting younger. JMO.

 

The point I was trying to make is that he has a lot more experience with scouting than most people know.

 

Here's a good article about the switch. It doesn't mention his scouting experience but it does clear some things up that people wanted to know about here.

[In-A-Gadda-Levitre]

From the article:

 

Coincidentally or not, Evans was happy to report this week that his slow-going contract talks have suddenly heated up as well.

 

“We’re a lot closer. We have closed the gap,” said Evans, who’s entering the final year of his contract. “Hopefully, we can get it done sooner than later. But I’m not really worried.”

 

The Bills have declined to discuss the status of contract talks, but have consistently maintained signing Evans to a long-term deal is their top priority.

yes of course. I was responding to Silvermike's post that said they had been close for so long. The article that started this thread AFAIK was the 1st one that actually said they've closed the gap...