Last November I was flamed pretty hard here

[Lori]

Take your pick. How about the Saints game in 2005?

The view from the end zone seats at that game: Four sacks (three on Losman, one on Holcomb), four forced scrambles, and a roughing penalty. And since it was too damn hot outside to drink anything other than water even after escaping into the Alamodome, my memories of that game are reasonably clear ...

[Alaska Darin]

JP was also a disasterous pick. They spent a 1st, 2nd and 5th to take an erratic passer with bad habits and perhaps a questionable feel for the game (I am being kind), and put him on a team with little to no blocking. Then, TD/MM dumped Bledsoe (a year too soon) and placed him in as the starter because their pride suffered after the loss to Pitt. A pretty stupid reson, no?

No. Bledsoe was done.

I do fully agree that JP was mishandled. That goes without saying. Still, it even KTFBD agrees that he also must shoulder some of the blame. This is his 5th year. Excuses do run out at some point, or so one would think.

Whatever. The fact is that NO QB would have had success in the abortion the BILLS have been trying to pretend was an NFL offense since Losman was drafted.

[Bill from NYC]

No. Bledsoe was done.

 

He had a good year in 2005, especially taking into account that Dallas played without both starting OTs for a large portion of the season. And even if he was all but finished, he was better than JP at the time, and by a ton.

 

Do you think that JP will become a star on another team?

[The Dean]

He had a good year in 2005, especially taking into account that Dallas played without both starting OTs for a large portion of the season. And even if he was all but finished, he was better than JP at the time, and by a ton.

Do you think that JP will become a star on another team?

 

 

Depends. I think he would excel in Denver (for example), and had he been drafted by them, he would be a certified NFL star, by now. The question is: after having been so screwed up, in his NFL formative years, can he recover, and will he end up in a good spot? I think there is little doubt he can be a very good #2 QB somewhere. I think believe he has the ability to shake off the abuse, and turn his career around, should he get the right opportunity.

 

I have to comment on one thing, Bill. You say, "This is his 5th year. Excuses do run out at some point, or so one would think." That is absurd. That's like beating a dog from when it's young, and then wondering why it never became a good dog. "It's been 5 years, he should be good, by now." JP has never been handled properly and that includes LAST YEAR. He has never been in a truly functional offensive environment. For a brief time, the Bills looked like they were starting to get a clue offensively, in 2006. Guess what? JP excelled. So, what did the Bills do to start 2007? They trashed the offense that worked in 2006.

 

The QB of the Bills is Trent Edwards. JP will have to find his place elsewhere, if he is to be a starter, again, in the NFL. I think he can, and will be a very good NFL QB, if he gets to play for the right team. He may end up being a valuable #2, or may be one of those QB's who really starts to show their stuff a little later in his career. No need to trash him, whenever you get the chance, though.

[Catholic Guilt]

So, there were so many games ("take your pick") when the vaunted Buffalo Bills' offensive line of the past few years provided outstanding protection for JP, you decided to use the his 4th career start in what was, for all practical purposes, his rookie year. That's your trump card?

 

He was sacked 3 times and ran 4 times for 38 yards (hey, a nice 9.5/att average). In relief, Kelly Holcomb was also sacked once, had to run once and was forced to fumble twice. That sounds like a monster day for the offensive line.

 

Obviously, I was joking with a "which game" as it is obvious to anyone who has actually watched the games (no matter what former players have personally told them) that the Bills offensive line, the past few years was abysmal. It wasn't until the line began to gel, last year, that the OL could be called "respectable" in pass blocking. Add to that completely predictable and horrendous play-calling, and it's fairly obvious that JP was not in a good situation, as far as having time to throw.

 

Now, with that said, JP does need to improve his pocket presence, if he is going to improve his game in the NFL. But, please, let's not pretend that his situation was something other than what it was.

Edwards is poised and has intangibles. Losman has a great arm, but he has no understanding of checking down, looking off a receiver or moving the ball. I haven't missed watching a Bills game in over 20 years and I was one of his biggest supporters. While I agree with your offensive line assessment, we differ on what you consider his "situation". Let's look at the Jacksonville game last year. The Bills are still in the playoff hunt, Edwards is injured and he had a HORRIBLE game. Losman completed 27 of 40 passes for 211 yards with 1 TD and 2 interceptions. He also lost a fumble at a critical part of the game. Granted Lynch missed that game. You don't have to be a former player to observe those things.

 

He did pretty good his first start at home against the Texans in 2005. What made the game three weeks later any different?

[Alaska Darin]

He had a good year in 2005, especially taking into account that Dallas played without both starting OTs for a large portion of the season.

Revisionist history. Bledsoe had a typical Bledsoe season. He was good early, then imploded. And of course his OLinemen got hurt - they have to work a hell of a lot harder picking up the extra rushers that teams consistantly send because he couldn't deal with regular pressure.

And even if he was all but finished, he was better than JP at the time, and by a ton.

Really Bill? A veteran QB is better than a rookie with no starts? That's such a stretch. Handing Losman the job when it was clear he wasn't ready to play was the first mistake in a long line of them but getting rid of Bledsoe wasn't part of the problem.

Do you think that JP will become a star on another team?

Why does he have to be a star? Everyone wants to throw the guy under the bus because Mularkey/Clements/Fairchild couldn't get their offensive sh-- together and screwed the kid over completely.

[Bill from NYC]

Revisionist history. Bledsoe had a typical Bledsoe season. He was good early, then imploded. And of course his OLinemen got hurt - they have to work a hell of a lot harder picking up the extra rushers that teams consistantly send because he couldn't deal with regular pressure.

 

Really Bill? A veteran QB is better than a rookie with no starts? That's such a stretch. Handing Losman the job when it was clear he wasn't ready to play was the first mistake in a long line of them but getting rid of Bledsoe wasn't part of the problem.

 

Why does he have to be a star? Everyone wants to throw the guy under the bus because Mularkey/Clements/Fairchild couldn't get their offensive sh-- together and screwed the kid over completely.

 

The bolded was the point I was trying to make AD. He never, ever should have been tossed in there at that early stage of his career. Most qbs not named Trent Edwards are unable to bring even a little consistency at that stage of development. All kidding aside, you are right in that Bledsoe was all but done. Still, there was nothing at all to gain by simply cutting him and going with JP to open the season. That move hurt the team, the fans, and of course JP.

 

Good point about JP being a "star." There are so few "star" qbs in the league these days that they can be counted on one hand, and at least 1 of them (Romo) is extremely overrated imo. Seriously, turn back the clock a few years and there were probably a dozen qbs who were (again, imo) clearly better than Romo in any given season.

Hopefully, JP can help us this season if needed.

[Catholic Guilt]

Dean and Darren - here's a good article from the AJC to your points:

 

Rookie QB’s don’t win immediately in NFL

 

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

 

Friday, August 15, 2008

 

A study of rookie quarterbacks indicates that the Falcons might as well pencil themselves in for a losing season if they start Matt Ryan from the beginning.

 

Since 1983 when Dan Marino went 7-2 as a rookie starter, only Ben Roethlisberger has won big in the regular season as a rookie starter. Roethlisberger went 13-0 as a starter in the regular season as the Steelers were powered by running backs Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis and wide receivers Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress.

 

Marino and Roethlisberger both were on powerful veteran teams.

 

“Marino was a late first-round draft pick going to a Super Bowl team,” said Charlie Casserly, the former front office executive with Washington and Houston. “He ended up with a team that had already been in the Super Bowl. He was around good players.”

 

Roethlisberger was set to sit and watch Tommy Maddox. But Maddox was injured in the second game of the season and Big Ben stepped in and took the Steelers to the AFC Championship game against New England, where he had three interceptions.

 

“They led the league in rushes,” Casserly said. “That was a heck of a football team he was with. It’s rare that a high drafted quarterback goes to a playoff team.”

 

The Falcons went 4-12 last year and are admittedly in a rebuilding mode. The Falcons’ final roster will likely not flex the strength of the ‘83 Dolphins or ‘04 Steelers. After giving up 47 sacks last year, the offensive line much show that it can pass protect.

 

A rookie quarterback’s evolution and pocket presence can be ruined if he’s under siege early in his career.

 

“The best way is to have them sit and have a veteran quarterback that he can look at and learn from,” Casserly said. “Sometimes if those (veteran) quarterbacks aren’t good enough, the players look at you like, ‘Hey, you’ve got to play this guy. He’s our best chance to win.’ So it depends on circumstances.”

 

From Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw to Peyton and Eli Manning, rookie quarterbacks have a long history of struggling in the NFL.

 

“Matt has progressed extremely fast in terms of picking up the offense,” Falcons head coach Mike Smith said. “In the OTAs, he showed us that he was going to be able to get a good feel for what we are doing.”

 

Ryan redshirted his first season at Boston College.

 

“I don’t think there is any time frame on it,” Ryan said. “I think you just show up every day and work hard and do everything you can to put a good effort out on the field. At B.C. it was kind of the same way.”

 

Ryan will not say if he wants to start from the outset.

 

“I’m competing to try to get on the field,” Ryan said. “It’s just about trying to get better and not any of the long-term stuff.”

 

Here’s a look at how the last 10 Super Bowl-winning QBs fared in their rookie seasons:

 

2008 — Eli Manning, New York Giants: Started seven games as a rookie in 2004 and was 1-6. He completed just 48.2 percent of his passes and threw nine interceptions.

 

2007 — Peyton Manning, Indianapolis: Started all 16 games as a rookie and posted a 3-13 record. Showed promise completing 56.7 percent of his passes. He also had 28 interceptions.

 

2006 — Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh: Had the most successful rookie campaign of the modern era. He went 14-1 as a starter and completed 66.4 percent of his passes. Broke Dan Marino’s NFL records for a rookie quarterback for completion percentage (66.4) and passer-rating (98.1)

 

2005, 2004, 2002 — Tom Brady, New England: Completed 1 of his 3 attempted passes. Showed no signs of what was to come as a rookie in 2000.

 

2003 — Brad Johnson, Tampa Bay: Played in four games with Minnesota as a rookie in 1994. Didn’t become a starter until his third season.

 

2001 — Trent Dilfer, Baltimore: Was 0-2 as a starter his rookie season in 1994. Started all 16 games in his second season and posted a 7-9 record.

 

2000 — Kurt Warner, St. Louis: Completed 4-of-11 passes as a 27-year-old rookie in 1998 after a stint in the Arena Football League. He posted a 13-3 mark as a starter in year two.

 

1999, 1998 — John Elway, Denver: The future Hall of Famer was 4-6 as a rookie starter in 1983. He completed just 47.5 percent of his passes and threw 14 picks.

 

1997 — Brett Favre, Green Bay: Attempted only four passes as a rookie for the Falcons and didn’t complete one.

 

1996 — Troy Aikman, Dallas: Started 11 games as a rookie and went 0-11. Threw nine touchdown passes and 18 interceptions.

[Beerball]

I do fully agree that JP was mishandled. That goes without saying. Still, even KTFBD agrees that he also must shoulder some of the blame. This is his 5th year. Excuses do run out at some point, or so one would think.

Bill--do you have a problem with how Losman played in the preseason? I don't, but you mention his fifth year...to me he looked pretty darn good in that 3rd game. Why? He had a coordinator who actually understands how to call an offensive NFL game. Same line he had last year (minus Peters). Same RB. Same WR (minus Peerless). Yet we saw some savvy play from JP didn't we? What changed...

 

He wasn't mismanaged, he was ruined. Hopefully he has the guts to pull himself up and he appears to. Good wishes to him next year.

 

This year...Edwards leads the Bills and hopefully for many more.

[The Dean]

Dean and Darren - here's a good article from the AJC to your points:

 

Rookie QB’s don’t win immediately in NFL

ect.

 

A rookie quarterback’s evolution and pocket presence can be ruined if he’s under siege early in his career.

 

“The best way is to have them sit and have a veteran quarterback that he can look at and learn from,” Casserly said. “Sometimes if those (veteran) quarterbacks aren’t good enough, the players look at you like, ‘Hey, you’ve got to play this guy. He’s our best chance to win.’ So it depends on circumstances.”

.

 

 

Thanks, SC. I think I wrote this article, last year, in a back-and-forth with a poster or two.

[San-O]

JP was also a disasterous pick. They spent a 1st, 2nd and 5th to take an erratic passer with bad habits and perhaps a questionable feel for the game (I am being kind), and put him on a team with little to no blocking. Then, TD/MM dumped Bledsoe (a year too soon) and placed him in as the starter because their pride suffered after the loss to Pitt. A pretty stupid reson, no?

 

I do fully agree that JP was mishandled. That goes without saying. Still, even KTFBD agrees that he also must shoulder some of the blame. This is his 5th year. Excuses do run out at some point, or so one would think.

 

 

JP = RJ

[Orton's Arm]

JP was also a disastrous pick. They spent a 1st, 2nd and 5th to take an erratic passer with bad habits and perhaps a questionable feel for the game (I am being kind), and put him on a team with little to no blocking. Then, TD/MM dumped Bledsoe (a year too soon) and placed him in as the starter because their pride suffered after the loss to Pitt. A pretty stupid reason, no?

 

I do fully agree that JP was mishandled. That goes without saying. Still, even KTFBD agrees that he also must shoulder some of the blame. This is his 5th year. Excuses do run out at some point, or so one would think.

Good post Bill, and I agree with most of it. If you're using a first round pick on a QB, it should be on a guy who's known as a polished pocket passer, and not some scrambler/throwing on the run/unpolished guy with good athletic gifts. (Not that you, in particular, would ever use a first round pick on a QB, if there was even one non-Pro Bowler on your offensive line! )

 

You and others have made the argument Losman was mishandled. The arguments I've seen in this and other threads are as follows:

1) The decision to make Losman the starter beginning with his second year in the league. The thinking is that he would have benefited from another year on the bench, and that he should have been made the starter in his third year.

2) The decision to bench Losman due to abysmal performances in starts 2 - 4 of his career

3) The decision to put Losman in an offense that wasn't well-suited to his strengths

4) Fairchild's overall poor playcalling

5) The lack of talent around Losman

 

1) Losman had his whole rookie year to learn the playbook, take mental reps, watch film, etc. He also had the benefit of practicing both before his injury occurred and after he'd returned from it. This was not as useful a learning opportunity as an injury-free rookie year would have been, but it was a lot better than nothing. Going into his second year, it was reasonable for the coaching staff to have expected him to have played better than a rookie would have.

 

2) Given the above, you would have expected a certain minimal level of performance from Losman once he became a starter. His inability to deliver anything even close to that minimal level of performance raised serious questions about his long-term future in the NFL. One could make the argument that if you're pretty sure a guy isn't going to develop into the long-term answer at QB, why should you keep feeding him starts at the team's expense?

 

3) It's true that Losman was more or less forced to sink or swim as a pocket passer rather than being allowed to use roll-outs and the other kinds of plays you'd typically call for a mobile, strong-armed QB who was a poor pocket passer. I think the Bills made the right decision with this. Long-term, having a QB who isn't a good pocket passer is just too limiting. They needed to know whether Losman could develop into such a QB. If he couldn't, they needed to move on without him.

 

4) To a large degree the playcalling was designed to benefit Losman. In 2006 Fairchild considerably simplified the offense, thereby helping Losman achieve a productive year (especially in the second half of the season). In 2007, Fairchild also helped compensate for Losman's metal deficiencies by keeping extra guys in to block and not giving Losman very many targets on any one given passing play. That's fairly standard practice when you have a guy who isn't good at quickly processing visual information. The extra blockers help him by giving him more time to throw, and the absence of extra targets doesn't hurt him, because he wouldn't have seen them anyway. While Fairchild's overall playcalling was unimaginative and poor--especially in 2007--the Bills' QB situation made him appear worse than he really was.

 

5) The offensive line was a joke in 2005--no question. But it came together in 2006, especially in the second half of the season. Other than Lee Evans, Losman's receiving corps was uninspiring. But this year, Trent is making players like Josh Reed look better than they had when Losman was the QB. Doubtless there are those who would attribute this change strictly to the upgrade at offensive coordinator, but I think the upgrade at QB has at least as much to do with it.

 

As for the other point you raised, getting rid of Bledsoe after the 2004 season was the right move. The Bills had a disaster of an offensive line in 2005. With a line like that, you need a QB who gets rid of the ball quickly--not exactly Bledsoe's forte. Say what you will about Kelly Holcomb, but at least he knew how to take what should have been a sack and turn it into a small positive gain. That ability made Holcomb a better QB for the 2005 Bills than Bledsoe would have been.

[Catholic Guilt]

Thanks, SC. I think I wrote this article, last year, in a back-and-forth with a poster or two.

 

Anything for you Dean...

[Flbillsfan#1]

JP = RJ

= Stupid post

[EndZoneCrew]

= Stupid post

 

Flbillsfan#1<RJ

[Flbillsfan#1]

Flbillsfan#1<RJ

This is true. I have never played in the NFL. On the other hand Flbillsfan#1>EndZoneCrew.

[/dev/null]

Bill--do you have a problem with how Losman played in the preseason? I don't, but you mention his fifth year...to me he looked pretty darn good in that 3rd game. Why? He had a coordinator who actually understands how to call an offensive NFL game. Same line he had last year (minus Peters). Same RB. Same WR (minus Peerless). Yet we saw some savvy play from JP didn't we? What changed...

 

He wasn't mismanaged, he was ruined.

 

You know what, you're right

 

Let's bench Edwards and start Losman. This is the year to finally give JP the chance he so deserves.

 

What's the worst that could happen? If we bench Edwards in his 2nd season, we'll still have 3 more seasons of Give Him Another Chance

 

Those other 51 players are irrelevant anyways compared to a 1st round QB.

[Pyrite Gal]

JP was also a disasterous pick. They spent a 1st, 2nd and 5th to take an erratic passer with bad habits and perhaps a questionable feel for the game (I am being kind), and put him on a team with little to no blocking. Then, TD/MM dumped Bledsoe (a year too soon) and placed him in as the starter because their pride suffered after the loss to Pitt. A pretty stupid reson, no?

 

I do fully agree that JP was mishandled. That goes without saying. Still, even KTFBD agrees that he also must shoulder some of the blame. This is his 5th year. Excuses do run out at some point, or so one would think.

Personally, I think its dumb to pick any QB in the first unless you pretty much plan to let him get better by sitting and watching the pro game a bit. The incredible record of first round pick QBs failing to deliver an SB win for their team from Dallas choosing Aikman in the 80s until Robo QB finally led the team that chose him the 1st and this was followed by Manning finallt leading the team that chose him in the 1st to an SB finally showed that after the long drought it can be done.

 

However, the situation on the Bills not having the support across the team which the Steelers had for RoboQB and not being able to wait for almost a decade to build a team around a Manning (if they somehow found one) indicates strongly that drafting a QB in the 1st was not (and I think still is not) a good strategy to pursue.

 

Overall, I think though the JP pick was not a good strategy, I can see the sense in doing it as the Bills had decided that the draft was a method they were going to use. If you invest in the foolishness of using the draft to get a QB, the strategy of trading future picks to move up was far better than the alternative of waiting until the next season and drafting the first QB taken in that draft.

 

This was noneother than the aforementioned Smith. JP has shown at least some ability to play the NFL game successfully (even with his poor training, he was able to come off the bench after Edwards got hurt and beat NYJ. He then actually performed so well in the next few games that even when Edwards recovered he left Jauron no choice but to start him against Jax because JP was performing so well.

 

Fortunately for TE and Jauron, JP called himself out and declared the Jax game last year as make or break and like it or not he broke by anyone estimation.

 

My sense is though that JP did show last year when he forced Edwards to stay on the bench that yes he can play to pro game. Not well enough obviously with the lousy training and deficits he brings to the game, but he an Edwards had roughly the same QB rating and really struck me as about the same last year.

 

This adds up IMHO that you go with TE as you man first this year as he is younger and really this O is not built for his strengths as he really is a player who does better improvising and the Bills style O which depends on a lot of coordination to run a WCO style is far better suited to Edwards than Losman,

 

Though this true, it seems like a false leap of logic to somehow draw the conclusion that because Edwards does a better job running our O than Losman that this means Losman cannot produce anywhere with any D.

 

On he contrary, I think that Losman has proved to be too inconsistent running our O, inconsistency means he actually has demonstrated he can do quite well sometimes.

 

I simply see it as a leap of illogic for some to conclude this means he will be bad all the time everywhere because he is bad too often here.

 

If folks want to make that claim then how to do they explain all the things JP has done well here which made football professionals confident enough in him to give him the starting job in 2006 (under circumstances even JP disagreed with), AND had troubles that year but had most Bills fans feeling psyched about his possibilities in 07 until he got Wilforked and Edwards gave folks even more hope, AND came off the bench when Edwards got dinged and until he called himself out in the Jax game proved to be good enough to keep Edwards on the bench.

 

These are at least three examples of JP demonstrating on the field that while he clearly was not consistent enough to be our best alternative as starting QB he has shown on the field that he can play the game episodically and it is not hard to imagine some other team emphasizing the best of his game and de-emphasizing the rest.