/dev/null Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 Poll from Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/poll/110263/Battle-C...ompetitive.aspx FT story on some Congress Critters: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6c2f69ce-8031-11...0077b07658.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PastaJoe Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 It's not in play, even conservative commentators admit that. The question is how large a margin will the Democrat numbers increase. It's all about what seats are up for election in which states. A national poll doesn't reflect views within the states, just like the electoral college vs national polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YellowLinesandArmadillos Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 Poll from Gallup:http://www.gallup.com/poll/110263/Battle-C...ompetitive.aspx FT story on some Congress Critters: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6c2f69ce-8031-11...0077b07658.html That would be good for Dems, then they could lose Pelosi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 It's not in play, even conservative commentators admit that. The question is how large a margin will the Democrat numbers increase. It's all about what seats are up for election in which states. A national poll doesn't reflect views within the states, just like the electoral college vs national polls. In the House, EVERY seat is up for election. At this moment, control of the House is in play. Whether that will still be true ~50 days from now remains to be seen. In the Senate about 2/3rds of the seats that are up are currently Republican held. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PastaJoe Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 In the House, EVERY seat is up for election. At this moment, control of the House is in play. Whether that will still be true ~50 days from now remains to be seen. In the Senate about 2/3rds of the seats that are up are currently Republican held. I was referring to seats that are not safely held by the incumbent. There are more Republican incumbents in danger of losing their seats than Democrats due to the mood of the voters regarding Bush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 I was referring to seats that are not safely held by the incumbent. There are more Republican incumbents in danger of losing their seats than Democrats due to the mood of the voters regarding Bush. A month ago that statement would have been true, and it may be true again when it matters in 1-1/2 months. As of today, Congress sits w/ a 18% approval rating and many 1st term Congresscritters are nervous. Most of those 1st termers have a D next to their name. After the debates, things may swing back in the D's favor, but right now the House is in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YellowLinesandArmadillos Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 A month ago that statement would have been true, and it may be true again when it matters in 1-1/2 months. As of today, Congress sits w/ a 18% approval rating and many 1st term Congresscritters are nervous. Most of those 1st termers have a D next to their name. After the debates, things may swing back in the D's favor, but right now the House is in play. I would have to agree with you, don't know the demographics of seats, retirees etc, but given the close elections during the last decade, I would believe that any wind can change things significantly, even if it is a light one. That being said popular polling or generic polls mean little or nothing at this point in congressional races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PastaJoe Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 A month ago that statement would have been true, and it may be true again when it matters in 1-1/2 months. As of today, Congress sits w/ a 18% approval rating and many 1st term Congresscritters are nervous. Most of those 1st termers have a D next to their name. After the debates, things may swing back in the D's favor, but right now the House is in play. The Congress approval rating is deceiving. When asked about which party they'd prefer to be in control of Congress, more people choose Democrats. They aren't upset about what the Democrats have tried to do, they're upset that nothing is being done to help working families, which is due to Republicans using parlimentary procedures to prevent votes on legislation, and presidental veto threats. I'm not concerned about the Congress changing parties, I just hope the Democrats get enough Senate seat gains so they can kick turncoat Joe Lieberman to the curb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 The Congress approval rating is deceiving. When asked about which party they'd prefer to be in control of Congress, more people choose Democrats. They aren't upset about what the Democrats have tried to do, they're upset that nothing is being done to help working families, which is due to Republicans using parlimentary procedures to prevent votes on legislation, and presidental veto threats. I'm not concerned about the Congress changing parties, I just hope the Democrats get enough Senate seat gains so they can kick turncoat Joe Lieberman to the curb. What parlimentary procedures are the Republicans in the House using to prevent votes? Democrats were convinced that they'd only lose a few seats back in '94 and they got massacred. Actually, pretty much all the polls said they wouldn't get thumped as bad as they did. And heading into '06, it looked like the R's would hold the Senate w/ a VERY slim majority. Assuming your guys are going to hold on to their control when fewer than 1 in 5 people think they are doing a good job is a fairly big assumption. I don't know how things will look in November, but right now it is not a lock that Nancy Pelosi will get to continue to play w/ her gavel. Maybe Obama wins big in the debates or maybe Palin makes the gaffe that the Dems are looking for (notice, I did not say McCain makes the gaffe, as it appears this is being set up as Obama v Palin which allows McCain to stay above the fray) and the tide swings back to the Dem side. Maybe it does, or maybe the R's maintain the momentum they gained at their convention and Pelosi goes back to being just another very liberal Congresscritter from California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philly McButterpants Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 I was referring to seats that are not safely held by the incumbent. There are more Republican incumbents in danger of losing their seats than Democrats due to the mood of the voters regarding Bush. If that were true, then Obama would be light years ahead in the polls. The dems could have plugged anyone into the prez slot if there were such a Republican backlash . . . why they could have picked any inexperienced, shady background bloke for . . uh . . .um . . .waitaminute . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philly McButterpants Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 The Congress approval rating is deceiving. When asked about which party they'd prefer to be in control of Congress, more people choose Democrats. They aren't upset about what the Democrats have tried to do, they're upset that nothing is being done to help working families, which is due to Republicans using parlimentary procedures to prevent votes on legislation, and presidental veto threats. I'm not concerned about the Congress changing parties, I just hope the Democrats get enough Senate seat gains so they can kick turncoat Joe Lieberman to the curb. When in doubt, blame the republicans! When the R's lost control of Congress as few years back, the approval rating was at 37% . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YellowLinesandArmadillos Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 When in doubt, blame the republicans! When the R's lost control of Congress as few years back, the approval rating was at 37% . . . Now now, get your facts right. Congresses approval rating was 25%, Bush's was 37%. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/21/us/politics/21poll.html Since the Dems took over Republican approval has slipped from 50% to 19% http://www.gallup.com/poll/108856/Congress...cordLow-14.aspx and Democratic support initially rose to 44% has dipped all the way down to 11%. One can interpret that a number of ways, but it appears the Dems are more pessimistic about Congress than the Republicans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PastaJoe Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 What parlimentary procedures are the Republicans in the House using to prevent votes? Democrats were convinced that they'd only lose a few seats back in '94 and they got massacred. Actually, pretty much all the polls said they wouldn't get thumped as bad as they did. And heading into '06, it looked like the R's would hold the Senate w/ a VERY slim majority. Assuming your guys are going to hold on to their control when fewer than 1 in 5 people think they are doing a good job is a fairly big assumption. I don't know how things will look in November, but right now it is not a lock that Nancy Pelosi will get to continue to play w/ her gavel. Maybe Obama wins big in the debates or maybe Palin makes the gaffe that the Dems are looking for (notice, I did not say McCain makes the gaffe, as it appears this is being set up as Obama v Palin which allows McCain to stay above the fray) and the tide swings back to the Dem side. Maybe it does, or maybe the R's maintain the momentum they gained at their convention and Pelosi goes back to being just another very liberal Congresscritter from California. In the Senate, even bills that pass the House unanamously have been blocked from votes through parlimentary procedures, especially by Tom Colburn. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...8072701441.html I know Republicans have to put a good face on the situation, but the reality is that it is an extreme longshot that they would reclaim control of the Congress, or even maintain their current numbers. It's like the Syracuse University coach; he has to present a positive attitude for the team as they face Penn State this week, but let's be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UConn James Posted September 13, 2008 Share Posted September 13, 2008 The Congress approval rating is deceiving. When asked about which party they'd prefer to be in control of Congress, more people choose Democrats. They aren't upset about what the Democrats have tried to do, they're upset that nothing is being done to help working families, which is due to Republicans using parlimentary procedures to prevent votes on legislation, and presidental veto threats. I'm not concerned about the Congress changing parties, I just hope the Democrats get enough Senate seat gains so they can kick turncoat Joe Lieberman to the curb. I think that's going to happen regardless. If JMac wins, Lieberman's his SoS. If not, whether it's Joe caucusing with the Republicans by his own volition or possibly being handed his hat to be a true Independent since he won't be of much use to them anymore. He committed treason to the Democratic party; they'd have to be truly desperate... and they might not take him even if they are. He (and by extension, Connecticut ) can kiss those key committee slots goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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