eball Posted September 12, 2008 Author Posted September 12, 2008 FYI, the line has dropped to 5 and 5 1/2 across the board.
Max997 Posted September 12, 2008 Posted September 12, 2008 I think this is a classic example of the early-season delay in matching preseason expectations with actual game results. If both teams were at full strength, the spread would be around 7 points. Factor in Jacksonville's bad showing a week ago, their OL injuries, and the Bills' performance, and there's no way the spread should be more than 3. I expect this line to go down steadily as the week progresses. they did factor in the week one performances and figured the Jags were not as bad as they looked and the Bills are not as good...we'll see if thats true but the people in Vegas know what they're doing
eball Posted September 12, 2008 Author Posted September 12, 2008 they did factor in the week one performances and figured the Jags were not as bad as they looked and the Bills are not as good...we'll see if thats true but the people in Vegas know what they're doing Absolutely. They know how to read the gambling public -- and that's the crowd who still believe J-ville is the cat's meow and Buffalo belongs in the cat box.
Dibs Posted September 12, 2008 Posted September 12, 2008 (edited) they did factor in the week one performances and figured the Jags were not as bad as they looked and the Bills are not as good...we'll see if thats true but the people in Vegas know what they're doing I think they do know what they are doing but the spread isn't their opinion of what the difference is between two teams.....it is their opinion of what a majority of gamblers believe the difference is. They want an equal amount of betting on both teams. If they had the Jags as 2 pt favourites or worst yet the Bills as favourites they would get every man and his dog backing the Jags with only few(knowledgeable fans & Bills fans) backing Buffalo. *edit* What eball said above Edited September 12, 2008 by Dibs
Max997 Posted September 12, 2008 Posted September 12, 2008 Absolutely. They know how to read the gambling public -- and that's the crowd who still believe J-ville is the cat's meow and Buffalo belongs in the cat box. yes they do know how to read the gambling public but you have it backwards....that line is begging the betters to take Buffalo...6 or 7 looks too good to be true for a team that looked as good as the Bills did last week playing a team that looked as bad as the Jags did
eball Posted September 12, 2008 Author Posted September 12, 2008 yes they do know how to read the gambling public but you have it backwards....that line is begging the betters to take Buffalo...6 or 7 looks too good to be true for a team that looked as good as the Bills did last week playing a team that looked as bad as the Jags did I guess we'll keep going back and forth on this. Fact: Preseason expectations of Jags have them as a Super Bowl contender. Preseason expectations of the Bills have them as a .500 contender. Given that fact, the gambling public believes the Jags are significantly better than Buffalo, and particularly at home. If this game were being played last week, the line would have opened at -7 (at least). Despite J-ville's "bad" loss in W1 and injury situation, the gambling pubic isn't willing to jump off the bus just yet. Similarly, they're trying to "justify" Buffalo's blowout by rationalizing that Seattle was a hurt team, traveling across the country. Their preseason expectations have not shifted -- yet. The oddsmakers realize this, and so while they know the "smart money" will factor in J-ville's injuries, they also know -- even if they believe Buffalo really IS a good team -- that if the line is too low they'll get an overabundance of J-ville bettors. That's the last thing they want. So they started the line at a nearly "full strength" value, and it is slowly coming down as the gamblers who do their research come to the realization that there are more factors in Buffalo's favor heading into this game. I'm pretty sure this is exactly the sort of analysis that goes into setting the line, Max. Whether that means we agree or disagree, I'll leave to your discretion.
Fingon Posted September 12, 2008 Posted September 12, 2008 Mark my words... Stroud will have 3 sacks (or more) on sunday.
LabattBlue Posted September 12, 2008 Posted September 12, 2008 Mark my words... Stroud will have 3 sacks (or more) on sunday. Not saying this is impossible, but let's be realistic. Stroud had a combined 6.5 sacks during his last 3 years with the Jaguars. Before that, he had seasons of 6.5, 4.5 & 4.5.
colin Posted September 12, 2008 Posted September 12, 2008 i fully expect the bills to walk away with a touchdown victory. the team will have 5+ sacks and althouh there will be some struggles on o will make enough plays to show ability.
LabattBlue Posted September 15, 2008 Posted September 15, 2008 Mark my words... Stroud will have 3 sacks (or more) on sunday. Don't want to rub it in your face, but when you make unrealistic predictions, they need to be bumped after the fact.
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