BillsNYC Posted September 8, 2008 Posted September 8, 2008 The variable in this election is the increased number of people registering to vote for the first time (younger, minorities) which largely favors Obama it they vote. I wonder whether the polls take them into consideration, especially since many younger people just have cell phones and not land lines. Probably equals out considering the youth never turns out as much as expected.
PastaJoe Posted September 8, 2008 Posted September 8, 2008 Probably equals out considering the youth never turns out as much as expected. I think this is a generational election where the youth are more energized than in previous years, and there is a greater probability they will turn out, along with increased minority participation. The Democrats have a large registration program going.
SDS Posted September 8, 2008 Posted September 8, 2008 I think this is a generational election where the youth are more energized than in previous years, and there is a greater probability they will turn out, along with increased minority participation. The Democrats have a large registration program going. Actually, one of the top pollsters just came out with the fact that the "youth vote" intensity has dropped 20 points since April. 20 points. I wouldn't count on that energy being the same come a dark, November Tuesday.
KD in CA Posted September 8, 2008 Posted September 8, 2008 Actually, one of the top pollsters just came out with the fact that the "youth vote" intensity has dropped 20 points since April. 20 points. I wouldn't count on that energy being the same come a dark, November Tuesday. Youth vote sitting in their dorm room on a dark, November Tuesday: Duude, it was pretty cool when we went to that thing at Investco. Oh yeah, that election is today. We should go like, vote for Obama. Yeah, where do we do that. I think it's somewhere on the other side of campus. {pause} Man, I'm so baked right now. Me too.
Taro T Posted September 8, 2008 Posted September 8, 2008 Actually, one of the top pollsters just came out with the fact that the "youth vote" intensity has dropped 20 points since April. 20 points. I wouldn't count on that energy being the same come a dark, November Tuesday. There will almost definitely be fewer college age voters than Obama would like to see, but I'd expect the turnout to be a little higher than in the past. How much higher it goes will be a function of how well Obama's people do in getting absentee ballots to the kids and how well they followup on making sure they get returned. I didn't expect to see McCain w/ a lead this early in the race. I was expecting post-convention to be essentially a dead heat. If he can hold the lead going into the debates it will make things very interesting as Obama hasn't shown me an ability to "wow" people in debates. If he's behind during / after the debates, I'd expect to see his campaign turn up the negative rhetoric even higher which would go a long way toward cutting into his preferred image of being a "different kind of politician / leader." Either way, it's going to be a real interesting 2 months.
BillsNYC Posted September 8, 2008 Posted September 8, 2008 I think this is a generational election where the youth are more energized than in previous years, and there is a greater probability they will turn out, along with increased minority participation. The Democrats have a large registration program going. I feel like we could go back 4 years and find a post that says the same thing about Kerry.
Alaska Darin Posted September 8, 2008 Posted September 8, 2008 I feel like we could go back 4 years and find a post that says the same thing about Kerry. You could - because the cycle never changes. The Dummycrats go after the stupid, the young, and the poor. The Republicraps spend their time scaring white people. At the end we all lose.
Wacka Posted September 8, 2008 Posted September 8, 2008 You could - because the cycle never changes. The Dummycrats go after the stupid, the young, and the poor. The Republicraps spend their time scaring white people. At the end we all lose. "And Leon is getting laaaaarrrrrger. "
molson_golden2002 Posted September 9, 2008 Author Posted September 9, 2008 And I'd like to thank the McCain camp for releasing an ad so full of bull sh-- that Obama had not problem scoring points by answering. Spending his own money to help Obama, that's rich! She killed the bridge to nowhere? http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008...ssing-palin-pic Turns out she killed it because Congress wouldn't fully fund it!
/dev/null Posted September 9, 2008 Posted September 9, 2008 I think this is a generational election where the youth are more energized than in previous years, and there is a greater probability they will turn out, along with increased minority participation. The Democrats have a large registration program going. I see parallels between the youth vote and the Miami Dolphins. During the primary/preseason, the chattering class (pundits/ESPN) talk about how it will be a great year and what a difference they will make. But come gameday
Chilly Posted September 9, 2008 Posted September 9, 2008 Actually, one of the top pollsters just came out with the fact that the "youth vote" intensity has dropped 20 points since April. 20 points. I wouldn't count on that energy being the same come a dark, November Tuesday. Yup. Also, relax people, the race will tighten backup, and be close come November. It always does. The media wants you to think there is a lot of variation between elections, so they can keep continuing to sell their product.. There isn't.
JK2000 Posted September 9, 2008 Posted September 9, 2008 Yup. Also, relax people, the race will tighten backup, and be close come November. It always does. The media wants you to think there is a lot of variation between elections, so they can keep continuing to sell their product.. There isn't. That's all the daily tracking is good for.
Chilly Posted September 9, 2008 Posted September 9, 2008 That's all the daily tracking is good for. Yep. Elections are trending toward being more stable, not less stable, and have been going that way since the mid-70s realignment.
Wacka Posted September 9, 2008 Posted September 9, 2008 I see parallels between the youth vote and the Miami Dolphins. During the primary/preseason, the chattering class (pundits/ESPN) talk about how it will be a great year and what a difference they will make. But come gameday Democrats= Dolphins
ExiledInIllinois Posted September 9, 2008 Posted September 9, 2008 Actually, one of the top pollsters just came out with the fact that the "youth vote" intensity has dropped 20 points since April. 20 points. I wouldn't count on that energy being the same come a dark, November Tuesday. I saw that too. I am more interested in what the African-American block is doing registrationwise. To me that is an indicator how that block will be represented. I still contend we haven't really seen what the AA block can bring to the table. Now... This is NOT a statement about choice. IMO, the AA blcok has always seen apathy in their ranks. Like someone said in the thread I made, ths block is what 13-15% of the population. Doesn't sound too big. But, what happens if they come out in numbers... All states could be affected. I am not downplaying our over-rating the value with the AA block... I just don't know what to expect? ??
ExiledInIllinois Posted September 9, 2008 Posted September 9, 2008 You could - because the cycle never changes. The Dummycrats go after the stupid, the young, and the poor. The Republicraps spend their time scaring white people. At the end we all lose. Yep! That's me (blue)... Actually, a Dem most likely could hurt me personally... But, it isn't about me or my children (I will see to it that they will be fine)... It is about other people . One man's ceiling is another man's floor. I prefer to concentrate on my floor, with my feet firmly planted helping the other guy up even if it means I can't reach the ceiling. It really all comes down to one's self outlook. I am stupid because I would rather see the country help others first before myself. Again, it is very much stupid with regard to the current culture in this country.
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