Official BuffOrange Gambling Thread

[KD in CA]

BO-- I noticed you went with the Bills last week and that was the first time you picked on their game since week 1. Do you tend to stay away from Bills games because it's hard to keep it objective?

[BuffOrange]

BO-- I noticed you went with the Bills last week and that was the first time you picked on their game since week 1. Do you tend to stay away from Bills games because it's hard to keep it objective?

 

No that's not really an issue with me; I just haven't seen much value in their lines this year. The Jacksonville win I think boosted the Bills respect level in Vegas quite a bit.

I was close to picking against them in St Louis when they were giving 8.5 and vs. the Jets 5.5, but didn't feel quite strong enough about either...

Still think I was on the "right" side of last weeks game. -4 turnover table equals blowout usually.

I may go back to us vs. Miami in a few weeks if we're giving less than 3 provided Trent gets his head out of his ass by then.

[BuffOrange]

Tough slate this week imo. Uncharacteristically going with some road favorites, Bob Matthews style.

 

Week 13

 

Tennessee -11 @ Detroit - The Lions were honestly my last pick to miss my cut of official picks last week, which I temporarily regretted when they went up 17-0 but then somehow didn't cover +9....usually a team that has big home/road splits but they have sucked in their building this year and the Titans are of course an unphased road club. Tough to not see this getting ugly given the Titans #1 pass defense against the only thing Detroit has going for them - Megatron.

 

KC +3 @ Oakland - This probably would've been a pick 'em if it were played last week, so what the hell - I'll take the points in the battle of dreads. I like both of these teams better on the road ATS: the Raiders because they suck at home, and the Chiefs who have inexplicably become a better road than Arrowhead team under Herm (who also had a better road record with the Jets iirc).

 

Interesting trend I've noticed: The 4 Thursday night teams have all won outright as road dogs the following week off 10 days rest: Denver@ATL, Cleve@Buff, NYJ@Tenn, and NE@Mia. Haven't paid attention to how Dallas & Detroit have historically done after Thanksgiving, so we won't pull the trigger on Pittsburgh +1 @ NE.

 

Last Week: 3-1

YTD: 24-13

 

Saturday Edit: Removing the Giants (somehow the line hasn't moved since this Plax incident?)

We will add:

Green Bay -3 vs. Carolina - Still believe in this Packer team as the eventual division champ. Carolina hasn't shown much away from home this year despite the John Fox pedigree of playing better away from home most years.

Edited November 30, 2008 by BuffOrange

[BuffOrange]

Saturday Edit: Removing the Giants (somehow the line hasn't moved since this Plax incident?)

 

Epic fail for this, and also for chickening out on Denver who I hate this year....but they would've been +6 or less @Jets at any point thru the 1st 10 weeks, but it ballooned to 9 due to last week's results...

 

Not sure WTF happened to this GB defense.

 

Thumbs up to Oakland for predictably vomiting on themselves in their backyard vs. a hated rival.

[BuffOrange]

Week 14

 

Pittsburgh -3 vs. Dallas - If you can explain how these teams are even on a neutral field, let me know. I can only figure the desperation factor and the 10 days rest keeps the line this low, but whatever, I'll give the FG.

 

New England -4.5 @ Seattle - Hawks appear to have mailed in this season, so I'll lay points w/ the Pats on the west coast coming off a bad loss, which worked out ok @SF.

 

NY Jets -4 @ SF - As Cris Carter has mentioned the last couple of weeks, the Jets are a schizo team - I think the lines react to the most recent game too much. If they played an average game @Buffalo last week I think they have that game put away by halftime which of course the 49ers did not who I don't think necessarily played a below average game by their standards. Travel is a mild concern, but Favre was always great @Candlestick as a Packer.

 

New Orleans -3 vs. Atlanta - This used to be the only division where homefield meant nothing, now it's apparently the only division where it means anything (or everything). Not much has changed about my opinion of either team since a month ago when I took the Falcons -1 because I thought they were equal on a neutral field. While this line in the rematch actually reflects that, I'm going with the stud QB playing for his season at home against a very likeable team - but it's hard to see the Falcons as a team ready to win back-to-back tough road games. Looks like Bush is back too.

 

4 favorites including 2 road favorites, really not my style but this is a screwed up year.

 

No Bills pick because:

 

I may go back to us vs. Miami in a few weeks if we're giving less than 3 provided Trent gets his head out of his ass by then.

 

[x] Bills giving less than 3.

[ ] Trent has his head out of his ass.

[x] Possible JP Loserman sighting.

 

If Trent does play and play well we officially have to give the "weather theory" some serious thought, right? Is putting a roof over the Ralph totally out of the question (half kidding of course)?

 

Last Week: 2-1

YTD: 26-14

[BuffOrange]

Well obviously we're lucky to escape with a .500 week. Not unusual in that there aren't as many appealing lines late in the season, as evidence from recent unusual road favorite picks. Lets just move on.

 

Week 15

 

Baltimore -1 vs. Pittsburgh - Was kinda expecting/hoping to get points here instead of laying 1, but I probably wasn't going to get 3 anyway. The Steelers are coming off a really physical game, but if you saw the same game as me on Monday Night in Pittsburgh earlier in the year, you're not totally convinced that they're even a better team anyway.

 

Tennessee -3 @ Houston - This will be strictly a "I thought it would be 5 or 6" pick; though I'm not crazy about it to be honest. The Texans play much better at home and they basically killed the Packers in Lambeau only to make it close via shooting themselves in the foot. I still kinda like only giving up the FG and think the Titans can control the clock vs. a suspect defense where as if Finnegan can neutralize Johnson somewhat Houston should have a tough time scoring.

 

Thursday edit:

 

Atlanta -3 vs. Tampa - Standard FG line, I'll lay the FG with the home team, which has worked so far this year in this division. The Bucs much like the Colts are a tactically sound team that doesn't really feed off emotion (which I think in the long run is a plus) but I don't think it helps them play any better "because they're mad" after getting embarrassed on Monday Night. Taking the Week 2 game with a grain of salt since it was Ryan's first career road start.

 

Last Week: 2-2

YTD: 28-16

Edited December 11, 2008 by BuffOrange

[BuffOrange]

Rough week thanks to Walt Coleman and the Falcons goaline fumbler. Lets get this rollin again with some dogs.

 

Week 16

 

KC +4 vs. Miami - OK I'll say it: the Fish aren't any good. Their 5 of 6 streak includes the following: 2 pt game home vs. Seattle, 2 pt win home vs. Oakland, 20 pt loss home vs. NE, 4 pt win @STL, 5 pt win home vs. SF. Most impressive game was the 16-3 game @Toronto. All this and an incredible unsustainable turnover rate. If they weren't 1-15 last year they're not getting the props they get.

 

Arizona +9 @ New England - I would've scoffed at ever taking the road side in this matchup a few weeks ago, but 9 points - wtf. I'm pretty sure this line is 6 or less before the Cards lay down like a dog last week. I don't think Whisenhunt is going to let them sleepwalk into the postseason.

 

Detroit +7 vs. New Orleans - I'll admit the "last home game, gotta win sometime" logic is kinda lame. Against a bad Saints defense that doesn't have much to play for getting a TD though, ehh why not.

 

Jacksonville +6 vs. Indy - Nice that the Jags didn't quit last week; they shouldn't here either playing their SB in primetime. The Colts putting some things together is a concern as they're clearly a much better team than they were a month ago. The revenge factor is not a concern because they're the Colts and they play on precision, not emotion.

 

I want to throw the Titans in here, but Haynesworth is too huge of a loss for them imo.

 

Wednesday edit:

 

Tampa Bay -3.5 vs. San Diego - The Chargers suck bad. Either they're getting too much respect with this line or the Bucs are undervalued after a couple tough road losses.

 

 

Last Week: 0-2-1

YTD: 28-18

Edited December 18, 2008 by BuffOrange

[BuffOrange]

And the week starts with another brutal loss w/ the Jags...Colts had no business covering that.

Not sure how I feel about the Cards with Boldin out, but we'll just let it ride.

[BuffOrange]

Epic failure of a weekend. Much like Megatron's 50 yard TD that was negated via penalty at 1:30 Sunday, the Thursday night Jags game was just a bad omen. Lets break down the film and correct some mistakes (or something like that).

 

Week 17

 

Philly -1 vs. Dallas - The Skins seem to give the Eagles issues for whatever reason; I still like the <FG line in the cold.

 

NYJ -3 vs. Miami - Jets playing their worst football of the season has them valued equally vs. the Fish right now. Most probably think Miami is better but I still think they're the worst 10-5 team ever.

 

Denver +9 @ San Diego - "OMG the Chargers are gonna be pissed cause they were screwed @Denver earlier" - I don't buy it - it's not an intimidating building to play in. They were supposed to be pissed when Eli went back there for a Sunday night game and their defense got roasted - and that was when their defense was good and Eli stunk. In any case this line being higher than a touchdown against a Bronco team with road wins @NJ & Atlanta is too much.

 

Last Week: 0-5

YTD: 28-23

[BuffOrange]

Why do I feel like this missed PAT is going to kill me in the Denver game.

 

Anyway, I predict an unprecedented 4 road favorites on wildcard weekend. Postseason betting is too hard to actually do it IRL IMO but I'll probably post picks anyway just for kicks. If anyone else wants to chime in that's cool too.

[KD in CA]

Anyway, I predict an unprecedented 4 road favorites on wildcard weekend.

 

It could be. It's really interesting to have all four games where the better (or at least hotter) team is the road team.

[BuffOrange]

Oh they're up already. Atl is -1, B'more -3, Philly -3. Indy will be -3 I'm guessing.

 

Plz get this backdoor cover Cutler...haven't had many luckbox covers other than the Browns in week 2.

Nevermind I close the season worse than the Jets.

 

Week 17: 1-2

2008: 29-25

[BuffOrange]

No action on wildcard weekend because I figured liking all 4 road favorites was a bad sign (though 2-2 wouldn't have been a disaster). The Ravens went from 3 pt dogs @Miami in the reg. season to giving 3 yesterday, which is a huge swing.

Now that we're back to normal with 4 home favorites, my 2nd round outlook:

 

Balt@Tenn -3 - Kinda iffy on this one, wouldn't be surprised to see the Titans semi-coast if they get the lead early, but I think the Ravens win outright about half the time. Tennessee is rested, but I don't like the way they mailed in the Indy game. I mean that's fine if you have to play the next week and I know the Bills did it under Marv, but haven't they learned from the Colts in the past that it's hard to take two weeks off and then turn it on again?

Flacco has actually played better on the road this year. In his 1st career road start he took his team down the field for a TD on Monday night to force OT against the best D in the league when all the momentum was pointing the other way. @Dallas was a playoff atmosphere as well, though that's not an intimidating place to play. You can say he didn't play great in these games but the point is he hasn't been some huge liability that caused his team to get in a 17-0 hole.

Pick: Baltimore +3

 

SD @ Pit -6 - I guess this comes down to how much you want to buy into Rivera revitalizing the Chargers defense. Personally I don't even though they played well vs. Indy. They needed a goaline stand to hold ATL to 22 in what at the time looked like a must-win at home; the Denver game just got out of hand quick and even then the SD D had problems. Against the Steelers it's not good enough to score a push against their OL - you have to hammer them there because that's their only weakness; I think either the Titans or Ravens will do it next week and advance to the SB but I don't see the Chargers getting it done. I don't have a problem laying 6 when I can't see the underdog winning outright.

Pick: Pittsburgh -6

 

Philly @ NYG -4 - This is tough. I think missing Burress in the long run makes them a carbon copy of the Titans, meaning they're solid but have a very thin margin for error. The last game vs. Philly had to have been a big distraction for the team and Pierce in the first game after the shooting fiasco whether they admit it or not though, so I expect them to play a much better game. I kinda like the Giants to win, but unlike the Chargers I can see the Eagles winning outright, so I'll just take the points in case it's a FG game.

Pick: Philly +4

 

Arizona @ Carolina -10 - Maybe I'm bitter over the Pats game, but I'm convinced the Cardinals are ultra-soft. If not showing any backbone in late season road games wasn't bad enough, they have to trot out the "nobody believed in us" crap after winning a home game they didn't deserve in the first place. Now with Boldin questionable, I think there's a good chance they get smoked here against what I think is the most complete team in football.

Pick: Carolina -10

[BuffOrange]

Cool 3-1.

Philly is -3 @AZ.

Balt is +5 @Pitt.

 

Obviously I like the Ravens. Not sure yet about the other game.

Football Outsiders looks pretty smart after criticism of them overrating the Eagles & Ravens all year.