Young Voters

[Chilly]

I wanted to take the time to address some of the things I've heard in the media and on this board in regards to young voters, as well as lay out my own opinion on the subject. The young vote is always a hot topic, and it seems even more so this year, with Barack Obama's alleged youth-inspiring campaign.

 

The data I'm pulling for prior elections is from various studies done by political scientists (not myself), but is generally originally from the ANES (http://www.electionstudies.org/). The ANES is the place to go for all sorts of data in regards to elections, voting behavior, and demographics.

 

The points I want to address:

 

The Claim: The Youth have been uninspired in the past by their candidates, which has repressed the turnout.

The Data: Generation Y actually liked Kerry and Gore at higher rates than other age groups. The ANES uses a measure called the "feeling thermometer" which is based upon respondents scaling their fondness toward a candidate. Gen Y responded with significantly higher ratings than the Baby Boomers by about 10%. Gen Yers were more likely, not less likely, to respond with positive feelings toward Kerry and Gore, and those positive feelings were usually higher than older voters.

 

The Claim: Generation Y has been turning out at lower rates than Gen X, which turned out at lower rates than the Baby Boomers, and so on.

The Data: Generation Y voters have actually been turning out at levels well ahead of where Gen X voters turned out at, and near the level that the Baby Boomers turned out at. This is likely to increase as the voters get older, thus solidifying Gen Y's higher turnout numbers.

 

The Claim: The campaign's don't talk about the issues important to Youth Voters.

The Data: Generation Y's attitudes toward issues were actually closer to Gore and Kerry than any other age group to any other candidate. As a result, the idea that they were alienated by the issues is false; they actually had their positions, as an overall group, more closely matched by a candidate than any other candidate. Young voters don't really have distinct priorities or wants, unlike what the media claims.

 

As a result of the above, I find the claim that the Youth vote are ready to mobilize a lot more for Obama quite dubious. Young voters are typically repressed voters because the cost of voting is perceived to be higher than the benefit (in large part due to not being established in the community), they haven't been completely civicly socialized yet, and there are limited mobilization efforts directed at the age group (usually half the contact rate of other age groups).

 

The limited targeting of young voters does make sense from a campaign point of view. The data shows that the young vote isn't stable; it can be changed relatively quickly given the current events, largely due to an almost absence of party affiliation. Added to the poor turnout showing, this is a group that isn't usually mobilized, and if they are, they aren't likely to vote stably across elections. One thing to note here, though, is that young voters decide their votes around the same timetable as older voters.

 

So what does that mean for this year?

 

Well, Barack Obama has increased the efforts to mobilize the youth vote, and the effects of that won't be known until well after the election. However, we can do some comparisons across age groups and to previous years.

 

A pew poll in June found that youth voters are 15% more likely than 4 years ago to indicate that they've given a lot of thought to the election. While it seems like a promising statistic that is showing the youth mobilization effort paying off, the other age groups are also responding at a 16% rate increase, showing that this isn't a youth-specific change, but rather one which is taking effect in the whole electorate. As such, I'm not convinced that youth voters are any more engaged in this election in previous elections. In addition, the question of interest doesn't mean that the gains from going to vote will outweigh the costs from the point-of-view of the young voters. As such, I'm not convinced that we're going to see a huge increase in youth turnout compared to the rest of the groups.

 

For a hypothetical sake, let's argue that the youth vote will increase by 15%. Currently, the youth vote is breaking right around 58-34% for Obama. If we split the undecideds on a 2-1 scale for Obama, his lead increases to 64-36%, or a difference of 28% over McCain.

 

In 2004, the youth vote was around 20.8 million votes. If this increased by 15%, there would be an increase of 3,120,000 votes. Obama would increase his vote total by 28% of these votes, or 873,600 votes. Enough to make a difference in a close election, for sure, but not earth shattering by any means.

 

I do think that we'll see an increase in the youth vote turnout from 2004 for two reasons: The Obama camp has been talking to and attempting to mobilize the youth vote, and because interest in this election is the highest its been. However, the interest level increase is consistent across all age groups, so it remains to be seen if the increase in youth voting will be significantly more than other age groups. I suspect that we will see a slight increase in the youth turnout relative to the increase of other age groups, but that it won't necessarily be a huge difference (a couple percentage points, for example). Of course, this is my best educated guess based off of the current data, so it could be completely and utterly wrong.

[molson_golden2002]

Can't you just tell us who is going to win?

[Chilly]

I don't get it.

[molson_golden2002]

I don't get it.

Just wanted a prediction I guess. Good analysis though.

 

Will youth vote be all its made up to be? I bet the Hispanic vote going even more Dem will be a big factor in a close election

[finknottle]

I don't get it.

 

He needs a one sentence summary, like "high youth turnout for Obama could make a big difference; but since such drives are often mirrored by higher turnouts in other groups and the loyalty and dependability of the youth vote is fickle, the impact is usually les than one would expect."

 

At least that's what I got out of it.

[Chilly]

Just wanted a prediction I guess. Good analysis though.

 

Will youth vote be all its made up to be? I bet the Hispanic vote going even more Dem will be a big factor in a close election

 

Ah, okay, thanks. I thought you were trying to be sarcastic or something, hehe.

[finknottle]

I bet the Hispanic vote going even more Dem will be a big factor in a close election

 

They will be critical in states currently in play: New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado. Might be factors in NC and Virginia too.

[JK2000]

Just wanted a prediction I guess. Good analysis though.

 

Will youth vote be all its made up to be? I bet the Hispanic vote going even more Dem will be a big factor in a close election

 

That's why neither side wants to do anything about immigration. They'll become a permanent minority party.

[finknottle]

That's why neither side wants to do anything about immigration. They'll become a permanent minority party.

 

That assumes Hispanics are monolithic about illegal immigration. There are alot of 3rd and 4th generation families in the southwest that are furious about the porous borders, increasing crime, dcaying social services, and are extremely worried about the drug wars moving north.