Kelly the Dog Posted August 29, 2008 Posted August 29, 2008 All the talk of the black vote and the youth vote is mental masturbation IMO. But Obama's organization is a thing of beauty. He talks change and hope and a different kind of politician blah blah blah. But Obama's machine workss the political game better than the Clintons *Edit: And the next month or two we'll see how his machine compare's to Bush/Rove I doubt people are going to donate money to a campaign and then not go vote. The youth vote in earlier elections is an entirely different phenomena than this one because of the Candidate, the Internet, Social Networks, and Cell Phones. Go ahead and have a dated opinion of this stuff, but the world has changed in a few short years. The rock star's ability to get people interested in him, and believing in him, regardless of its or his legitimacy, is remarkable.
In-A-Gadda-Levitre Posted August 29, 2008 Posted August 29, 2008 Using the actuarial life table set up by the social security administration, I started to calculate McCain's life expectancy. Assuming that he is of average physical condition (which I don't believe he is close to), there is an 86% chance that he is lives the next 4 years, and 68% chance he is lives the next 8. Now that may sound pretty high, however this doesn't include mental stability and any debilitating condition that could arise. So, it is quite probable at the least, that McCain won't make the full term without a major illness that removes him from the Presidency. Now, I'd be very afraid to leave the keys to the nation in the hands of someone that hasn't been part of a major political scene for all that long. If J-Mac was to have problems within the first year, I'd be afraid to have Palin in office. I would have rather seen a Mutt Romney, or Pawlenty thrown in as the Veep nominee I wouldn't wanna speculate on J-Mac's survivability, but the POTUS has to be one of the most stressful jobs in the entire world. That's gonna take a few years off almost anyone...
In-A-Gadda-Levitre Posted August 29, 2008 Posted August 29, 2008 I doubt people are going to donate money to a campaign and then not go vote. The youth vote in earlier elections is an entirely different phenomena than this one because of the Candidate, the Internet, Social Networks, and Cell Phones. Go ahead and have a dated opinion of this stuff, but the world has changed in a few short years. The rock star's ability to get people interested in him, and believing in him, regardless of its or his legitimacy, is remarkable. yes, you're right on. The number of newly registered voters (mostly democrats) and people that claim not to have voted in years will be lining up in November, probably more so than in any election in recent memory.
SDS Posted August 29, 2008 Posted August 29, 2008 I doubt people are going to donate money to a campaign and then not go vote. The youth vote in earlier elections is an entirely different phenomena than this one because of the Candidate, the Internet, Social Networks, and Cell Phones. Go ahead and have a dated opinion of this stuff, but the world has changed in a few short years. The rock star's ability to get people interested in him, and believing in him, regardless of its or his legitimacy, is remarkable. That theory will be tested soon enough. However, his ability to attract believers in the summer of 2008 doesn't necessarily correlate to November. See Bush I for that matter. I think Obama's past associations (how any democrat dismisses those associations is mind-boggling and a tad frightening), Biden and Obama's own comments about Obama's ability to hold the office are going to play much larger in the fall.
ExiledInIllinois Posted August 30, 2008 Posted August 30, 2008 This is why I think it is a great move - the possibility of changing the dynamic has tremoundous upside, and the irrelevance of the VP limits the downside (assuming no gaffes). I didn't see that happening with any of the 'official' candidates. Dan Quayle with a pony tail!
Kelly the Dog Posted August 30, 2008 Posted August 30, 2008 That theory will be tested soon enough. However, his ability to attract believers in the summer of 2008 doesn't necessarily correlate to November. See Bush I for that matter. I think Obama's past associations (how any democrat dismisses those associations is mind-boggling and a tad frightening), Biden and Obama's own comments about Obama's ability to hold the office are going to play much larger in the fall. Not at all talking about poll numbers of likely voters in the summer. I'm talking about the fanaticism of the movement, and the ability of the organization to get the little worker bees mobilizing and spreading like a virus. Again, it doesn't matter whether these people are lemmings or morons, or whether Obama is a lightweight who can just give a great speech and isn't ready to be President. He's just a person that has charisma and an ability to get people emotionally involved in him. The rock star element of him, I think, is very true. A lot of it may be irrational, although that's arguable. But to deny it, when he gathers these crowds wherever he goes I think is a mistake.
finknottle Posted August 30, 2008 Posted August 30, 2008 Where you see "oh my a woman," I see a working class family who are real Conservatives of the type that Washington forgot. I also see someone without special interest baggage who is anticorruption. With a dose of charisma that McCain lacks. And she just wiped Obama out of the headlines in an instant. His glorious moment is already out of the headlines. In another thread I tried to make the point that she will enthuse 'family values' voters in a way that a run-of-the-mill congressman with a conservative legislative record will not.
OCinBuffalo Posted August 30, 2008 Posted August 30, 2008 Dan Quayle with a pony tail! You wish. I wouldn't be writing her off just yet. Like I said above Palin = Biden killer. Have you ever actually seen Biden on a TV show or a debate? Not pretty. He's the choice Obama had to make. Palin is the perfect counter, and the debates will be hysterical. One way it could go: the exact opposite of Dan Quayle vs. old tired-ass Washington insider. It's such an obvious trap as well: goading the Obamatons to make the mistake of talking about experience and keeping experience at the front = the WORST thing for Obama. Let's see if they are dumb enough to fall for it, and of course it will be the fault of everybody but themselves if they lose because of it. Obama's campaign got out-maneuvered here, plain and simple. Hopefully it doesn't represent a larger problem with them.
finknottle Posted August 30, 2008 Posted August 30, 2008 Using the actuarial life table set up by the social security administration, I started to calculate McCain's life expectancy. Assuming that he is of average physical condition (which I don't believe he is close to), there is an 86% chance that he is lives the next 4 years, and 68% chance he is lives the next 8. Now that may sound pretty high, however this doesn't include mental stability and any debilitating condition that could arise. So, it is quite probable at the least, that McCain won't make the full term without a major illness that removes him from the Presidency. Now, I'd be very afraid to leave the keys to the nation in the hands of someone that hasn't been part of a major political scene for all that long. If J-Mac was to have problems within the first year, I'd be afraid to have Palin in office. I would have rather seen a Mutt Romney, or Pawlenty thrown in as the Veep nominee Don't they also say Obama has a one in four chance of going to prison in his lifetime?
/dev/null Posted August 30, 2008 Posted August 30, 2008 I doubt people are going to donate money to a campaign and then not go vote. The youth vote in earlier elections is an entirely different phenomena than this one because of the Candidate, the Internet, Social Networks, and Cell Phones. Go ahead and have a dated opinion of this stuff, but the world has changed in a few short years. The rock star's ability to get people interested in him, and believing in him, regardless of its or his legitimacy, is remarkable. yeah with a logon name like /dev/null I wouldn't know much about the Intarweb and those fancy Myspacebook.com things How many of those Obama donors were going to vote Democrat anyway?
finknottle Posted August 30, 2008 Posted August 30, 2008 To me, the single biggest thing that I look for in a President is the ability to surround himself with good people whom he can trust to make solid decisions for him. As much as the POTUS guides policy, his aides are the ones that shape this policy. Unfortunately, we don't get to vote on an entire Cabinet.: At this time, we've truly seen one major decision made by each POTUS candidate. In some ways, the VP serves in an advisory role - and I subscribe to the theory that the VP should help fill a void in the POTUS's resume. Let's take a look at this from my left-leaning glasses: OBAMA: Greatest weakness is a perceived lack of experience, particularly in the areas of Foreign Policy and National Security. Choice: A long-term Senator familiar with the ins and outs of government, currently the leading figure in Foreign Relations in the legislative branch of the government, and a well-respected man. MCCAIN: Greatest weakness is a perceived notion that he is a same-old same-old of the last 8 years. Choice: A virtual unknown with no Washington experience in any capacity; some experience with change at the state level. From that view, i don't think she was the WORST McCain could have done, but we'll have to see if they can frame their ticket as a team as well as Obama-Biden did this week - that'll be the key to me. Reasonable tack, but I have a different read. OBAMA: Greatest weakness is perceived lack of experience in running organizations and delivering on promises. Choice: Somebody else who has never run anything, but has only crafted legislation. Addresses weakness on National Security. OBAMA: Weaknesses are a perceived notion that he is a same-old same-old of the last 8 years, an inability to restart his reformer image; lacks executive experience; and weakness with his base. Choice: A young, dynamic outsider governor who has some experience running a city and a state; who has a reputation as a crusader with a history of taking on corruption in the party and the old-boy network; and is seen as a social conservative.
ExiledInIllinois Posted August 30, 2008 Posted August 30, 2008 You wish. I wouldn't be writing her off just yet. Like I said above Palin = Biden killer. Have you ever actually seen Biden on a TV show or a debate? Not pretty. He's the choice Obama had to make. Palin is the perfect counter, and the debates will be hysterical. One way it could go: the exact opposite of Dan Quayle vs. old tired-ass Washington insider. It's such an obvious trap as well: goading the Obamatons to make the mistake of talking about experience and keeping experience at the front = the WORST thing for Obama. Let's see if they are dumb enough to fall for it, and of course it will be the fault of everybody but themselves if they lose because of it. Obama's campaign got out-maneuvered here, plain and simple. Hopefully it doesn't represent a larger problem with them. Experience means nothing... I think it is great she was picked... You need fresh outsiders in there...
Kelly the Dog Posted August 30, 2008 Posted August 30, 2008 yeah with a logon name like /dev/null I wouldn't know much about the Intarweb and those fancy Myspacebook.com things How many of those Obama donors were going to vote Democrat anyway? The dated opinion is not about technology. The dated opinion is that the youth are always counted on to vote in massive numbers by the Democrats, and then they don't come out in massive numbers. It's okay if you think it's all talk and they won't show up. It's my opinion they will because of numerous factors the other years didn't really have.
SDS Posted August 30, 2008 Posted August 30, 2008 Not at all talking about poll numbers of likely voters in the summer. I'm talking about the fanaticism of the movement, and the ability of the organization to get the little worker bees mobilizing and spreading like a virus. Again, it doesn't matter whether these people are lemmings or morons, or whether Obama is a lightweight who can just give a great speech and isn't ready to be President. He's just a person that has charisma and an ability to get people emotionally involved in him. The rock star element of him, I think, is very true. A lot of it may be irrational, although that's arguable. But to deny it, when he gathers these crowds wherever he goes I think is a mistake. I'm saying those crowds are forming in the summer and have not yet formed in the fall. When the real negative campaigning starts and Obama is rightfully confronted with his past chosen associates there may be some measurable decrease in elation. When his derogatory words about Pennsylvanians are run over and over and over again you might not see those Reagen democrats in PA so excited about him.
ExiledInIllinois Posted August 30, 2008 Posted August 30, 2008 I'm saying those crowds are forming in the summer and have not yet formed in the fall. When the real negative campaigning starts and Obama is rightfully confronted with his past chosen associates there may be some measurable decrease in elation. When his derogatory words about Pennsylvanians are run over and over and over again you might not see those Reagen democrats in PA so excited about him. See that is the thing... My fellow countrymen are wacked... I don't care what the heck a politician calls me... So many are uptight and personal... Is it any wonder that most Americans are not confident in many areas? And don't get me started on the science and math area.
Wacka Posted August 30, 2008 Posted August 30, 2008 The dated opinion is not about technology. The dated opinion is that the youth are always counted on to vote in massive numbers by the Democrats, and then they don't come out in massive numbers. It's okay if you think it's all talk and they won't show up. It's my opinion they will because of numerous factors the other years didn't really have. I replied to you a week or two ago that the dems say the same thing every 4 years and the result is the same.
/dev/null Posted August 30, 2008 Posted August 30, 2008 The dated opinion is not about technology. The dated opinion is that the youth are always counted on to vote in massive numbers by the Democrats, and then they don't come out in massive numbers. It's okay if you think it's all talk and they won't show up. It's my opinion they will because of numerous factors the other years didn't really have. Guess we'll just have to wait 2 months to prove which one of us was wrong
/dev/null Posted August 30, 2008 Posted August 30, 2008 But not on the ears. Migod is her voice grating! I lasted 2 minutes. So you'd rather buy OrangeGlo from Obama than Palin?
ExiledInIllinois Posted August 30, 2008 Posted August 30, 2008 So you'd rather buy OrangeGlo from Obama than Palin? She sounds Canadian... Do people in AK sound Canadian?
finknottle Posted August 30, 2008 Posted August 30, 2008 I wouldn't wanna speculate on J-Mac's survivability, but the POTUS has to be one of the most stressful jobs in the entire world. That's gonna take a few years off almost anyone... And yet... here are the presidents who have died since WWII: 93 Reagan 93 Ford 81 Nixon 64 Johnson 46 Kennedy <-- assassinated 78 Eisenhower 88 Truman 63 Roosevelt 90 Hoover Throw out Kennedy and you have an average of 81.25. But medicine and presidential care is far superior today than it was in the 60's. For those who lived merely into the 1990's, the average rises to 89. The four living presidents are 84, 83, 62, and 62, and all seem to be going strong. Now you can argue that this is a small sample size - true. But the uniformity of the results are startling.
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