Sarah Palin

[John Adams]

give a rational argument that she wasn't. And the sexism is on the part of the republicans for cynically believing that women are stupid enough to vote for someone just because she's a woman.

 

Where you see "oh my a woman," I see a working class family who are real Conservatives of the type that Washington forgot. I also see someone without special interest baggage who is anticorruption. With a dose of charisma that McCain lacks. And she just wiped Obama out of the headlines in an instant. His glorious moment is already out of the headlines.

[John Adams]

you really should knock off the name calling. What is the point? Just point out how you disagree, it weakens your argument here which is a very valid one.

 

Pasta is what he is. I'll call him on it every time and I'm not alone in doing it. I'm just more consistent.

 

Back when Pasta was playing all the race cards, he thought I was an Obama supporter.

[SDS]

This is the ultimate flip-flop by the Republicans... I agree, it is a great flip-flop, they finally wisened up!

 

Really? The ultimate?

 

I haven't been paying too much attention to the race, but perhaps you can show us where McCain is touting his inevitable death in office...

[Kelly the Dog]

Where you see "oh my a woman," I see a working class family who are real Conservatives of the type that Washington forgot. I also see someone without special interest baggage who is anticorruption. With a dose of charisma that McCain lacks. And she just wiped Obama out of the headlines in an instant. His glorious moment is already out of the headlines.

Except 38 million people watched the speech last night and all the ball-washing that came after it. I doubt he needs the extra publicity. I do commend the McCain campaign, however, for stealing today. That was very smart and shrewd of them. It's also a good choice for McCain, IMO. At least it gives him a chance, Mitt or Good-and-Pawlenty were going to get him clobbered. I still think it's going to be a landslide, depending on how many points one thinks a landslide is, but this choice was a gamble that at least gives him a chance.

[SDS]

I still think it's going to be a landslide, depending on how many points one thinks a landslide is, but this choice was a gamble that at least gives him a chance.

 

What indication do you think that is going to be the case?

[justnzane]

Using the actuarial life table set up by the social security administration, I started to calculate McCain's life expectancy.

 

Assuming that he is of average physical condition (which I don't believe he is close to), there is an 86% chance that he is lives the next 4 years, and 68% chance he is lives the next 8. Now that may sound pretty high, however this doesn't include mental stability and any debilitating condition that could arise. So, it is quite probable at the least, that McCain won't make the full term without a major illness that removes him from the Presidency. Now, I'd be very afraid to leave the keys to the nation in the hands of someone that hasn't been part of a major political scene for all that long.

 

If J-Mac was to have problems within the first year, I'd be afraid to have Palin in office. I would have rather seen a Mutt Romney, or Pawlenty thrown in as the Veep nominee

[PSU_Mouse]

To me, the single biggest thing that I look for in a President is the ability to surround himself with good people whom he can trust to make solid decisions for him. As much as the POTUS guides policy, his aides are the ones that shape this policy. Unfortunately, we don't get to vote on an entire Cabinet.

 

At this time, we've truly seen one major decision made by each POTUS candidate. In some ways, the VP serves in an advisory role - and I subscribe to the theory that the VP should help fill a void in the POTUS's resume. Let's take a look at this from my left-leaning glasses:

 

OBAMA: Greatest weakness is a perceived lack of experience, particularly in the areas of Foreign Policy and National Security.

Choice: A long-term Senator familiar with the ins and outs of government, currently the leading figure in Foreign Relations in the legislative branch of the government, and a well-respected man.

 

MCCAIN: Greatest weakness is a perceived notion that he is a same-old same-old of the last 8 years.

Choice: A virtual unknown with no Washington experience in any capacity; some experience with change at the state level.

 

From that view, i don't think she was the WORST McCain could have done, but we'll have to see if they can frame their ticket as a team as well as Obama-Biden did this week - that'll be the key to me.

[OCinBuffalo]

Hmm. 12 pages and counting with no end in sight. Anybody who said this VP pick wouldn't generate buzz = wrong. Anybody who said this wouldn't divide women and get more of them to go for McCain = wrong. Anybody who thinks that this is the ultimate Biden silencer = wrong. Every time they attack this lady it will be spun as attacking women in general, which brings up the whole "Hillary got a raw deal because she was a woman" thing. Cue Hannity and Limbaugh with the 24x7 phony indignation every time somebody says even the slightest negative thing about her. Biden cannot compete with her in a debate, he loses no matter what, so he better just minimize the damage. Biden is now an empty suit, and this will be a referendum on Obama-->not good for him. Now, whether Obama's people are smart enough have him stay away from her? Who knows. If he attacks her, this election is over and McCain wins big.

 

She = exactly like picking at a scab and never letting it heal. The Hillary scab will be picked all the way through November, and this has the potential to take away all the phony Unity stuff the Dems did this week, in one shot.

 

Remember when I said before that coming out of the primary, tied with McCain, a master politician, was a bad idea, and if Hillary was polling better they should have picked her? Well, here you go.

 

This is a great play call. But, just like in football, it still has to be executed.

[/dev/null]

From that view, i don't think she was the WORST McCain could have done, but we'll have to see if they can frame their ticket as a team as well as Obama-Biden did this week - that'll be the key to me.

 

Let the woman run for VP and let Biden run for VP before deciding which pick was better

It only took a couple of hours for Biden to be labeled a great pick and Palin be declared the next Dan Quayle

 

For all we know Palin could end up being a great pick and Biden could turn out to be the next Lloyd Bentson

[Taro T]

Does anybody else see shades of David Souter in this selection?

[ieatcrayonz]

there is an 86% chance that he is lives the next 4 years, and 68% chance he is lives the next 8. So, it is quite probable at the least, that McCain won't make the full term without a major illness that removes him from the Presidency.

 

 

Did you commute to Canada to take your math classes?

[John Adams]

Only an outsider can clean up Washington. Biden and McCain won't.

[Kelly the Dog]

What indication do you think that is going to be the case?

It's a change election.

The current administration is in political shambles, a huge portion of the country is disgusted by them, and McCain isnt going to be able to divorce himself enough from it.

The advantages that McCain has with certain elements of his story and career for the base are canceled out by equally strong disadvantages.

Obama has raised ridiculous amounts of money and continues to raise more and more.

The voter registration additions for the Dems versus the Reps are in the millions and millions. And the turnouts in most states were double that of the rep (re:energized)

Obama, by most accounts, has been closing many of the questions fence-sitters had about him.

The evangelicals, while re-energized by the Palin choice, are not going to be coming out in droves like they did in the last two elections when gay marriage and other cultural issues scared them out.

The polls so far are, IMO and others including conservatives like George Will, probably 4-5 points off because they are unable to take into consideration the extent of the new voters and energy of the democrats versus the lower energy of the GOP.

The polls are further lowered by the fact most are not using cell phones, just land lines, and the younger Obama crowd is not getting as big a representation as they should, and the ridiculous percentage of blacks that will vote, and vote for Obama.

The youth vote of the dems, which always is expected and then fails, will show up in enormous relative numbers because of the last eight years but more so because this time the kids actually have a candidate they love and wanted all along. And the way the Obama campaign has used the net and cell phones will be able to keep track of them and get them out.

McCains pick today said to me loud and clear that McCain thought he had little to no chance if it was going as it was going.

I think he wins Colorado because of the convention and what the campaign was able to do there. I also think he wins Virginia.

 

Each of those should add .5 to 1 point (some maybe less, some maybe more).

[Wacka]

The dems brought this stealing of their thunder on themselves. The Republicans set the date for their convention and then the dems thought "Let's set ours just beore theirs so we can grab the limelight first." Look just at this board. This thread has twice the replies as the Messiah speech one.

[/dev/null]

Assuming that he is of average physical condition (which I don't believe he is close to), there is an 86% chance that he is lives the next 4 years, and 68% chance he is lives the next 8. Now that may sound pretty high

 

Nah, too easy I feel bad sometimes watching justnzane flop around here

 

But I will leave you with the basis of what I was going to reply...3.5

[VABills]

Only an outsider can clean up Washington. Biden and McCain won't.

Last I checked Obama has been here for several years as well.

 

There is only one true outsider in the 4.

[SDS]

It's a change election.

The current administration are in political shambles, a huge portion of the country is disgusted by them, and McCain isnt going to be able to divorce himself enough from it.

The advantages that McCain has with certain elements of his story and career for the base are canceled out by equally strong disadvantages.

Obama has raised ridiculous amounts of money and continues to raise more and more.

The voter registration additions for the Dems versus the Reps are in the millions and millions. And the turnouts in most states were double that of the rep (re:energized)

Obama, by most accounts, has been closing many of the questions fence-sitters had about him.

The evangelicals, while re-energized by the Palin choice, are not going to be coming out in droves like they did in the last two elections when gay marriage and other cultural issues scared them out.

The polls so far are, IMO and others including conservatives like George Will, probably 4-5 points off because they are unable to take into consideration the extent of the new voters and energy of the democrats versus the lower energy of the GOP.

The polls are further lowered by the fact most are not using cell phones, just land lines, and the younger Obama crowd is not getting as big a representation as they should, and the ridiculous percentage of blacks that will vote, and vote for Obama.

The youth vote of the dems, which always is expected and then fails, will show up in enormous relative numbers because of the last eight years but more so because this time the kids actually have a candidate they love and wanted all along. And the way the Obama campaign has used the net and cell phones will be able to keep track of them and get them out.

McCains pick today said to me loud and clear that McCain thought he had little to no chance if it was going as it was going.

I think he wins Colorado because of the convention and what the campaign was able to do there. I also think he wins Virginia.

 

Each of those should add .5 to 1 point (some maybe less, some maybe more).

 

counting on voters that never vote is usually a dubious strategy at best.

[/dev/null]

I also think he wins Virginia.

 

As a resident of Virginia, I'll have to disagree with that statement

 

Most people outside of Virginia think the state consists of the DC Suburbs and the rest of the state is Podunk. In reality the 3 largest cities are Virginia Beach, Norfolk, and Chesapeake. All located in the Hampton Roads metro area, which is pretty solidly red

[Kelly the Dog]

counting on voters that never vote is usually a dubious strategy at best.

It is usually. But there is no question in my mind there will be an enormous black turnout. And IMO the reason the youth vote didn't come out for them in the last two elections was because they didnt get their guy. Gore and Kerry were TERRIBLE candidates and personalities. Obama, even if it he ultimately an empty suit, or the same ol' same ol' politician is a great candidate and personality. Fooled and kool-aid drinking voters are still voters.

 

People are also severely under-estimating the organization and movement elements that the Obama team has put together in the last two years. I have heard many a Republican talk about what is going on in their state, worried that they are getting smothered by these offices sprouting up all over. None of this has been proven yet, of course, but you asked my opinion and I am giving it.

[/dev/null]

People are also severely under-estimating the organization and movement elements that the Obama team has put together in the last two years.

 

All the talk of the black vote and the youth vote is mental masturbation IMO. But Obama's organization is a thing of beauty.

 

He talks change and hope and a different kind of politician blah blah blah. But Obama's machine workss the political game better than the Clintons

 

*Edit: And the next month or two we'll see how his machine compare's to Bush/Rove