Our second Defensive series- Perfect example

[dave mcbride]

I think AKC is correct, but ultimately the best teams usually have very good quarterbacks. Having a very good/great QB changes everything. If your QB play isn't good, you need to be better on the lines to compete with the better teams. The Bills haven't had good QB play and have been below average on the lines in the past decade. No playoffs. Go figure. You guys can argue semantics with AKC all you want, but the bottom line is that he is right. The Bills have not focused enough on their line play considering their lack of presence at QB.

I don't mean to start anything, but you're mischaracterizing AKC's argument, which all along has been about one line (D-line), not two lines, and mostly about one position (DT being more important to his argument than DE - or so I've interpreted).

 

On the other hand, you are absolutely 100% correct about the QB position, and that shouldn't be disregarded by anyone in this debate. It looms over everything.

[AKC]

And who's saying they have a "superior approach"? All I've seen people saying is that your method is flawed.

 

What separates us from monkeys is that we have people who take the initiative to come up with a plan and initiate it. In the monkey world the others will scream, throw bananas and tear down the work of the conceptionist, leaving their society no better for the idea. In the human world, the conceptionist may be aided by others with better ideas, or they may simply build it against a gathering peanut gallery. In either case, we call it progress. Among other things, it's the foundation of "learning".

 

What we have is a few people saying they have a better way. I invited them to excercise any better way from the very first post. As yet there is not a single taker- all squawking and no action.

 

But I would agree that monkeys can sometimes be entertaining.

[AKC]

I don't mean to start anything, but you're mischaracterizing AKC's argument, which all along has been about one line (D-line), not two lines, and mostly about one position (DT being more important to his argument than DE - or so I've interpreted).

 

Actually that's not correct- in fact if you simply look at the post above you'll see I set the study to the logical positions, including OLine and DLine. It's true that my personal opinion is that DT has become among the critical premium positions in the league to defend against West Coast style offenses, the study is about commitments made to the whole of the DLine and the whole of the OLine.

[dave mcbride]

Actually that's not correct- in fact if you simply look at the post above you'll see I set the study to the logical positions, including OLine and DLine. It's true that my personal opinion is that DT has become among the critical premium positions in the league to defend against West Coast style offenses, the study is about commitments made to the whole of the DLine and the whole of the OLine.

Whatever your methodology, you may want to think about changing it to factor in free agency (and the rare instance of trades), which as I alluded to above is equally important as the draft. If Minnesota were to win the Super Bowl this year (not an impossibility), your theory might blow up if you didn't factor it in (and no, I'm not going to give you credit for the guy with leukemia). Hutchinson, Pat Williams, Jared Allen - nuff said.

[AKC]

Whatever your methodology, you may want to think about changing it to factor in free agency (and the rare instance of trades), which as I alluded to above is equally important as the draft. If Minnesota were to win the Super Bowl this year (not an impossibility), your theory might blow up if you didn't factor it in (and no, I'm not going to give you credit for the guy with leukemia). Hutchinson, Pat Williams, Jared Allen - nuff said.

 

In the specifics I wanted to look at- what is it "in the draft" that the best team's prize positionally- it would dilute the results if I added in FAs. I specifially wanted to see which premium 21/22 year olds they were adding to the roster on a positional breakdown.

 

What I found was that the best teams average investing 36% of their top draft equity into their lines, 10 points higher than the Bills.

 

Of course one can go out and pick up FA linemen- but as far as young talent, that leaves a pretty large void between us and the best teams, where they are investing nearly 50% more on their lines in the draft than we do. There are other areas like TE where we're way off the clear pattern among the best clubs.

[TC in St. Louis]

I thought the whole first team looked like crap the other night, but let's just give it a coupla weeks. McCargo was hurt the first year, looked decent last year, and had a mediocre first preseason game. That's all we know. The draft is a bit of a crap shoot, we all seem to make judgments after reading Ourlads or PFW and the Huddle Report. I think that the Bills staff knows more than I.

[BillsVet]

I thought the whole first team looked like crap the other night, but let's just give it a coupla weeks. McCargo was hurt the first year, looked decent last year, and had a mediocre first preseason game. That's all we know. The draft is a bit of a crap shoot, we all seem to make judgments after reading Ourlads or PFW and the Huddle Report. I think that the Bills staff knows more than I.

 

If the draft were truly a crap shoot (it either is or isn't) then no team would have an edge on any other in terms of overall roster talent.

 

There's a reason certain teams not only have good teams, but know when to let someone go and find their replacement in the draft. Much was made of the Colts featuring a starting lineup on both offense and defense that was either drafted or UDFA's. Polian knows all too well that free agency isn't always the best way to build a team, and of late, has signed few high-profile UFA's.

 

The Bills front office continues to go without a proven talent evaluator in the GM or similar position. Fans can think Brandon fills the void, but he doesn't and neither did Marv. At some point, the team will need to sign a proven personnel man in the front office who has authority over pro and amateur scouting among other areas.

[Ramius]

The Bills have not focused enough on their line play considering their lack of presence at QB.

 

If AKC had simply said this statement, we wouldnt be having this argument, because i dont think theres a single poster on this board that would disagree with it. The problem comes in when you pick and choose "data" to make a "point," that is based on some half cocked and incorrect assumption. Following the simple rules of statistics would have bee nice too.

 

I can use AKC supermostexcellent methodology and "prove" that eating ice cream causes people to drown, because theres a fairly strong correlation between ice cream consumption and drowning deaths. Logical people will tell you that theres other reasons behind the correlation. AKC will tell you that ice cream causes people to drown.

[VABills]

If AKC had simply said this statement, we wouldnt be having this argument, because i dont think theres a single poster on this board that would disagree with it. The problem comes in when you pick and choose "data" to make a "point," that is based on some half cocked and incorrect assumption. Following the simple rules of statistics would have bee nice too.

Can I argue with it, just because?

[Ramius]

Can I argue with it, just because?

 

You can, but you must follow the supermostexcellent methodology of AKC.

 

1. Make some outrageous claim

2. omit any and all data that doesn't support your point

3. ignore all contradictory data

4. completely butcher standard statistical methodology

5. misquote and make false claims about people who prove you wrong

[BLZFAN4LIFE]

If the draft were truly a crap shoot (it either is or isn't) then no team would have an edge on any other in terms of overall roster talent.

 

There's a reason certain teams not only have good teams, but know when to let someone go and find their replacement in the draft. Much was made of the Colts featuring a starting lineup on both offense and defense that was either drafted or UDFA's. Polian knows all too well that free agency isn't always the best way to build a team, and of late, has signed few high-profile UFA's.

 

The Bills front office continues to go without a proven talent evaluator in the GM or similar position. Fans can think Brandon fills the void, but he doesn't and neither did Marv. At some point, the team will need to sign a proven personnel man in the front office who has authority over pro and amateur scouting among other areas.

Finding the talent is the first step and developing the talent is the second step. How a coaching staff teaches, trains, and motivates a player goes a long way.

[Ramius]

Seahawks cut marcus tubbs, who was a 1st round DT. Does this mean they will suck now, or does the fact that he was a first round DT override that? Or is he one of those 1st round DTs that doesnt really count as a first round DT?

[dave mcbride]

In the specifics I wanted to look at- what is it "in the draft" that the best team's prize positionally- it would dilute the results if I added in FAs. I specifially wanted to see which premium 21/22 year olds they were adding to the roster on a positional breakdown.

 

What I found was that the best teams average investing 36% of their top draft equity into their lines, 10 points higher than the Bills.

 

Of course one can go out and pick up FA linemen- but as far as young talent, that leaves a pretty large void between us and the best teams, where they are investing nearly 50% more on their lines in the draft than we do. There are other areas like TE where we're way off the clear pattern among the best clubs.

I guess I don't buy it. The Raiders went to the Super Bowl in 2002 with FA DTs, as did Baltimore in 2000. Ted Washington was the best D-lineman on the field for the Pats in the 03 SB against Carolina -- more important than Seymour. Heck, even Tampa really didn't truly dominate on D-line across the board until they landed Simeon Rice. I could name many others, including the 2001 13-3 Bears, who did as well as they did because of FA fat guys. I know they may not all fall in your arbitrary survey cutoff of five years, but they're good examples of great FA d-linemen dominating for championship caliber teams. How you get 'em is unimportant and at bottom academic -- what matters is getting 'em.

[GG]

Actually that's not correct- in fact if you simply look at the post above you'll see I set the study to the logical positions, including OLine and DLine. It's true that my personal opinion is that DT has become among the critical premium positions in the league to defend against West Coast style offenses, the study is about commitments made to the whole of the DLine and the whole of the OLine.

 

Excuse me? This whole mess started with this revelation followed by this disaster. Only when people called you out for limiting the picks to DT and in the first round, did you decide to open up the criteria. And yet, still massaged the data to fit your preconceived conclusion.

 

And I still haven't a clue of what you're asking people to do. In each thread there are examples of people running statistical analyses that show zero correlation between targeting positions and winning. However, having good personnel men and coaching stability is a much greater factor. But I believe we've been through that.

 

As for Badol's post, I can't see how that supports AKC's argument in that Bills consistently gave up draft picks to find that elusive Jim Kelly replacement. Of course the data also shows that Bills wasted more draft picks since 1997 in seeking a replacement for Thurman Thomas than any other position.

[krazykat]

McCargo looks like he'd rather play Will Linebacker than down in the trenches.

 

On his first play McCargo lets Pete Kendall (who doesn't even have good footing when he pops McCargo) get under his pads and blow him off the ball. Then again, they say old habits die hard. This guy has never shown the ability to get low and play where good DTs makes their living.

 

The second play is vintage 2007 McCargo- it's 2nd and 4 from the 5 yard line, a short yardage play with the goal line to his back. At the snap, McCargo abandons his gap- I'm guessing because when he did the same in a similar situation last year, some of the media applauded him for his lack of discipline because he got lucky and made a play. Yesterday, the odds won- Portis saw the abandoned gap and went right down to the 1 over the spot McCargo vacated.

 

Another down later, you get to see every other Bill's DT on the ground as the whistle blows- but McCargo is up and spinning around like a top because he refuses to get down low and put his weight into the line surge.

 

On a team that is desperate for help in the D interior, this guy who has every reason to be producing positively for us is building a resume that says something else. He just does not appear to have the appetite to fight the other big bodies along the line of scrimmage.

It hasn't even been a month from when everyone was talking about how McCargo was some kind of beast or something and you're already hammering him.

 

Kinda early for this crowd.

[AKC]

You can, but you must follow the supermostexcellent methodology of AKC.

 

1. Make some outrageous claim

 

"The Bills have focused too much on spending top equity on the draft on WR".

 

I guess if- like you- I'd been naive enough to make the case to pick Limas Sweed at 11, the above statement might seem "outrageous". As I pointed out to you all through the original string before the draft, there was nothing outrageous about it then because the draft was weak at WR at the top. Not sure of you caught the draft this past April, but there actually weren't any WRs taken in the first round. Which makes the most outrageous statement made on TSW before the draft those you made about all the "1st round WRs" and how even if other team's didn't have WRs high on their list, a WR at 11 in the 2008 draft "wouldn't be a reach". You won't have to remind me in the future about the quality of your draft analysis.

 

2. omit any and all data that doesn't support your point

3. ignore all contradictory data

 

Use the most reasonable data and include everything in the study- but continue with your misrepresentation spam. You're much better at that than analyzing the draft!

 

4. completely butcher standard statistical methodology

 

Every poster with a math background said there was no fault with the math. Nice fabrication attempt, but the facts prove you once again couldn't care about honset psoting- and consistent with your history of misrepresentations.

 

5. misquote and make false claims about people who prove you wrong

 

Your specialty- continue to fail to grasp a concept that some of the most knowledgable football posters on the board are telling you is correct- and instead spin out of control telling fabricating herrings like "any first round DT.." because after all- you're not really here to talk about football- it's very clear that you're simply here to run up a huge post count.

[Ramius]

Every poster with a math background said there was no fault with the math. Nice fabrication attempt, but the facts prove you once again couldn't care about honset psoting- and consistent with your history of misrepresentations.

 

Funny how you bring up misrepresentations when it was you that was outed for chopping up one of my posts to make it seem like i said something i didnt.

 

As for the math, yes, you managed to successfully add, subtract, and divide. That ability actually bumps your posting coherence and intelligence up to a 3rd grade level. But everyone on here, including GG, OcinPhilly, Dibs, Bluefire, etc has proven time and time again that your statistical methodology is complete and utter garbage and is absolutely meaningless. Your outrageous claim that drafting DTs in round 1 = wins and super bowl victories carry no statistical weight, and carries the same statistical value as saying that having a coach named Bill meas oyu;ll have extreme success.

[Rubes]

Can't we all just get along?

 

[GG]

Can't we all just get along?

 

 

We did when the board was full of friendly people. And then the whole Coons/Cline tight end controversy tore everyone apart.

[Koufax]

Some pre-season observations:

 

1) Clearly McCargo is a bust. Whitner and Reed can't play through pain so are too soft for the NFL

 

2) Peyton Manning can't play through pain either, so is sort of a wuss, but that is okay because Quinn Gray is leading the league in passing yards, and likely to keep that up through the regular season. Word has it Gray has already filmed his Disney World commercial for after the Super Bowl as well.

 

3) The Patriots 22nd in scoring and go 0-16, making the 16 game year to year an unbreakable record...at least that is the pace they are on.

 

4) Trent Edwards will fail to pass for a single touch down, and JP will return to a starting role as the Bills fail to improve in any way and finish 7-9 again.

 

5) Marcus Mason and David Clowney will lead the league in rushing and passing, but neither will be able to beat out Mkristo Bruce and his NFL record 40 sacks for league MVP.

 

...or...

 

it is just preseason. I am mixed on McCargo, but not based on one quote and one pre season game. I still think he has a lot of upside, and look forward to him being a valuable Bill this season. If you want to discuss front office draft strategy you can evaluate him as a first round pick, otherwise you just evaluate him as a football player, and one I am happy to have right now. Probably not the best pick to help our team in a perfect world, but certainly someone who can help this team win football games now. And I am going to lay off the Edwards stuff. He didn't look good in the few plays he played, but I'm going to base more of my opinion on what he did last year than on the first couple snaps of a practice game. The team has to play better, and I look for solid progress through the preseason, and hope we get Peters back, but let's just take a deep breath and base our insight and thoughts and analysis on more than a pre-season opener which consistently year after year are not a great indicator of the actual state and ability of a football team.