Gallup: Tied at 44%

[/dev/null]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109219/Gallup-D...ce-Tied-44.aspx

 

I know I'm rough on Obama here, but that's not because of any affinity for McCain. Obama is the flavor of the month/Messiah that anybody who is anybody is head over heals in love for. So the rebel in me wants to hate on him

 

That said, from an independant/libertarian (who has no intention of voting for either McCain or Obama) point of view....wtf is up with Obama being tied with McCain?

 

Everybody hates GW Bush

The Economy is in the tank

Iraq and Afghanistan are a mess

The Republican brand is severely damaged to the point where the Democrats will likely make significant gains in the House and Senate

 

Obama led as much as 49-40 during his rock star world tour (with the Media on backup vocals) but has since dropped to even with McCain

 

The Republicans have giftwrapped, hand delivered, and FedEx overnighted the White House to the Democrats in 2008. Obama should be running like Nixon in 72 or Reagan in 84. There's no excuse for 2008 even being close

[DC Tom]

The Republicans have giftwrapped, hand delivered, and FedEx overnighted the White House to the Democrats in 2008. Obama should be running like Nixon in 72 or Reagan in 84. There's no excuse for 2008 even being close

 

The Republicans did the same in 2004. Didn't much matter. Although Obama is unavoidably a better candidate than Kerry.

[VABills]

The Republicans did the same in 2004. Didn't much matter. Although Obama is unavoidably a better candidate than Kerry.

I like his new campaign slogan, "Air in every tire, a tire gauge in every glove box and an oil change in every garage".

 

Of course, the other one was better, "Ask not what your car can do for you, ask what you can do for your car."

[KD in CA]

The Dems always have a big lead in the summer; Kerry, Gore, hell even Dukakis was way ahead of Bush Sr. at this point in '92.

 

Fortunately most of the time as we get closer to November people tend to come down from the drugs and realize they don't want to live in a socialist sh--hole country.

[IDBillzFan]

Pelosi and her ilk didn't do him any favors yesterday.

 

"Quick, someone kill the mics!"

 

"Quick, someone kill the lights!"

 

"Quick, someone kill the mics again!"

 

"Get me to my book tour on time!"

 

I can't help but believe that they'll get killed for that next week.

[PastaJoe]

All these polls don't matter much until after the conventions and they get to the debates, when the majority of voters will be paying more attention. Reagan was thought as risky and people were unsure about him before he got to debate Carter, but after that enough voters decided he was a reasonable alternative. In the end it's Obama's campaign to win or lose. McCain has already started throwing the long-ball with those silly ads that say nothing about solving our problems, just trying to paint Obama as risky.

[UConn James]

Pelosi and her ilk didn't do him any favors yesterday.

 

"Quick, someone kill the mics!"

 

"Quick, someone kill the mics again!"

 

What'd the Irish ever do to her?

[Wacka]

All these polls don't matter much until after the conventions and they get to the debates, when the majority of voters will be paying more attention. Reagan was thought as risky and people were unsure about him before he got to debate Carter, but after that enough voters decided he was a reasonable alternative. In the end it's Obama's campaign to win or lose. McCain has already started throwing the long-ball with those silly ads that say nothing about solving our problems, just trying to paint Obama as risky.

 

 

Obama could debate now, but he turned McCain down. Without a teleprompter, it's all er' s and a' s. Obama is risky. He's a socialist unless he "changes" again.

 

Obama changes directions more than a weather vane in a tornado.

[OCinBuffalo]

Obama could debate now, but he turned McCain down. Without a teleprompter, it's all er' s and a' s. Obama is risky. He's a socialist unless he "changes" again.

 

Obama changes directions more than a weather vane in a tornado.

Perhaps that's what he meant by saying change = him changing, not the country. I fully believe in him changing, again, and again. So I guess that's "change you can believe in"

 

All kidding aside, no reasonable person can argue that he hasn't changed his positions on some key issues, multiple times.

 

Oh, and dev/null: Careful, I posted something similar a while back, and the obamahanis don't like it when you bring up the fact that there's no way in hell things should be tied, ever, in this race. There's simply no way the Democratic candidate should be close to the Republican candidate. I still don't understand why they decided that Obama was a better candidate than Hillary. A blind man, locked in a trunk, at the bottom of the ocean could have seen that. But, when you consider the nonsense that the Dems pulled in 2006, the over-reaching and sticking with tired, bad ideas no matter what, that they are almost always guilty of, I suppose it's not that surprising.

 

Like I told Molson_Retard, a year ago, if the surge works there is going to be political fall-out for Democrats, and now, this simply confirms it. They used a war going badly for political gain, now that that the same war is going well, they will have to suffer the political loss.

 

This is rapidly descending into Turd Sandwich vs. Giant Douche all over again. So much for change. Right now it looks like nobody gets my vote, again. Like I have been saying though, I want to see the debates! Where the F are they?

[PTS]

All these polls don't matter much until after the conventions and they get to the debates, when the majority of voters will be paying more attention.

They don't even matter then. How many polls had Kerry beating Bush on the day of the election in 2004? Didn't Zogby pretty much say his exit-polls confirmed a Kerry victory? I remember watching some wacky far-left democrat dancing on Fox News because "they had won". And then 5pm came around and the people that actually work got out to vote. These are usually the same people that hang up the phone when someone calls and asks "Would you like to take a few minutes to answer some poll questions on the upcoming election?"

[Chilly]

They don't even matter then. How many polls had Kerry beating Bush on the day of the election in 2004? Didn't Zogby pretty much say his exit-polls confirmed a Kerry victory? I remember watching some wacky far-left democrat dancing on Fox News because "they had won". And then 5pm came around and the people that actually work got out to vote. These are usually the same people that hang up the phone when someone calls and asks "Would you like to take a few minutes to answer some poll questions on the upcoming election?"

 

Exit polling and regular polling are tremendously different beasts, and there are a number of factors as to why exit polling failed (and now has been blown up) since the 2004 elections.

 

The first statement you made was correct: these polls don't even matter then, because tracking polls, outside of very general overall trends that don't provide a ton of information, aren't really that useful.

 

To use the 2004 exit polling example to discredit all polls is not a valid argument.

[KD in CA]

I remember watching some wacky far-left democrat dancing on Fox News because "they had won".

There was one of those here on PPP too.

 

And then 5pm came around and the people that actually work got out to vote. These are usually the same people that hang up the phone when someone calls and asks "Would you like to take a few minutes to answer some poll questions on the upcoming election?"

 

Very good point.

[Chilly]

Very good point.

 

Telephone surveys have nothing to do with Exit polling.

[lilannie]

You really want to predict elections, follow the money!

 

Barack Obama

 

John McCain

[PastaJoe]

A couple of factors that contribute to the uncertainty of the polls this year is 1) some people who are unwilling to vote for Obama because of race won't say so in a poll to a stranger (the Bradley factor), and 2) many younger voters use cell phones and not land lines, and therefore may never be contacted by pollsters. So there are unique circumstances that may contribute to hidden support for both candidates.

[KD in CA]

You really want to predict elections, follow the money!

 

Barack Obama

 

John McCain

 

 

McCain looks like a good buy in the high 30s.

[lilannie]

McCain looks like a good buy in the high 30s.

 

Could be, I used to play on intrade alot. I lost a bunch of money when Bush nominated John Roberts. At the time Alberto Gonzalez was the favorite to get the nomination and throughout the month he kept fluctuating so I kept buying in the low 20's and selling at around 30. No one was expecting the nomination to come for a while but Bush came out suddenly and nominated John Roberts before I had a chance to sell. It was alot of fun though!

[Max Fischer]

They don't even matter then. How many polls had Kerry beating Bush on the day of the election in 2004? Didn't Zogby pretty much say his exit-polls confirmed a Kerry victory? I remember watching some wacky far-left democrat dancing on Fox News because "they had won". And then 5pm came around and the people that actually work got out to vote. These are usually the same people that hang up the phone when someone calls and asks "Would you like to take a few minutes to answer some poll questions on the upcoming election?"

 

Exit polls usually work pretty well. 2004 generally is the exception. Even then, most predicted the winner in battleground states with a few key exceptions. (Of course those key exceptions - OH, FL - were the difference makers). However, to dismiss exit polling as voodoo is not correct.

[SD Jarhead]

There was one of those here on PPP too.

 

Who did RCow morph into? Molten? Elliot the Idiot? or maybe La Dipschit? Mods, any help here?

[UConn James]

Who did RCow morph into? Molten? Elliot the Idiot? or maybe La Dipschit? Mods, any help here?

 

I've said before so I'm not going to waste time on a troll, but, probably all of them. There's been a chorus line --- one after another --- of posters who come here, spout pretty much the same drivel with the same tactics, make an idiot of themselves or get banned. Note, curiously, how there's always one poster at a time (despite such shakeup) that bears the standard at PPP for out-and-out socialism.

 

-----

 

Interesting article in the NYT about something that is concrete. Voting registration change in the past four years.

 

Link.

 

Can't say I'm surprised by this. The pendulum has swung back a little bit, but even then many voters are just going unaffiliated b/c they don't fundamentally identify with either of the Big Two. And yet, they just pick and choose among those rather than support third parties, b/c they don't identify with them either.

 

Some readings:

1. Bush and 'socially-conservative/financially spendthrift' Republicans have really screwed that once-proud party. They now stand for so many things that they don't stand for anything: 'Illegals Out!' vs. 'Illegals provide cheap labor'; Tax cuts in an era of deficit finance vs. financial responsibility; et cetera.

 

2. The time is ripe for a third party that can actually build a consensus, but they've got a tough row to hoe in getting choked out by the media and fund-raising. There's a lot of people who just want govt to function w/o having to donate millions just to be heard. Fat chance of that! And so, we've got a lot of people who have been disillusioned and that anything just short of armed revolution can't really change the labyrinth that is the federal govt, no matter what letter is next to the leaders' names. I think at his point, they're working 50 hours a week, coming home, eating, watching AI, going to bed, wash, rinse and repeat. That, or waiting for a "MARS ATTACKS!" scenario: "They blew up Congress!"