My take on Trent vs. JP

[biglukes]

BINGO. Some people need to clear their plates faster than others, and declare things as "finished" when, for all intents and purposes, it hasn't even begun. Trent's first year as starter hasn't even begun yet, and he DID struggle a LOT against the stronger defenses last year. He hasn't proven a THING to anyone with a FUNCTIONING brain, except that we have a longshot as starter and a perennial underachiever as a now, unhappy backup. Nothing else is dead here, despite, perhaps, the heads of those who post in a thread just to tell us it wasn't worth posting in it.

Taking a break from railing on Darcy Regier?

[NewEra]

I'm pretty sure JP is gonna get some time as a backup...I'm hoping Trent can stay healthy for 16 games, but I think thats a long shot. JP's gonna have a chance to get himself a contract with someone else next year. I believe he'll be ready to step in admirably when/if trent goes down. then back to the bench.

[keepthefaith]

Edwards is the starter, so there is no "controversy" or question as to that. Jauron & Co. have opted for that.

 

But to say that without a doubt he's better is one of the dumbest statements that anyone here could ever make and this season will bear that out.

 

Having said that, neither appears to be the answer at QB for us and with JP wanting out of here anyway, it will leave the team high and dry and we can finally tag those responsible and hopefully move on from this and get this team turned around although I doubt that will happen too. But Jauron, Levy (now gone), and our illustrious personnel department that has laid far more goose eggs than hatched swans should be fired. Naturally that won't happen though, not in Buffalo.

 

Regardless, to say that JP "got four seasons to prove himself" is asinine. He had one season, '06.

 

In '04, his rookie year, he was injured early in the season and never started or played.

 

In '05 he was jockeyed in and out with Holcomb all season. He started four games, didn't play well in his first few games in the NFL as all but a rookie, got yanked, then went back in for a few games and got yanked again and in spite of playing no worse than Edwards did last year and with a worse surrounding cast, was yanked again late in the season in favor of Holcomb, another message board hero for some.

 

In '06 JP finally started. He put up 17 TDs, had 9 INTs, rushed for 1 more TD, and had 10 games with ratings of higher than 84, six higher than 90, and 4 higher than 100.

With JP under center the Bills lost five games by 1 point twice, 2 points once, and 3 points twice with the offense scoring 10 points (@ NE), 17 points (@ Detroit), 9 points/3 FGs (@ Indy), 21 points (SD), and 29 points (Tennessee) for an average of over 17 points with obviously some very good defenses in there.

 

Last year the Bills lost one game under Edwards game by fewer than 8 points and in that game the offense scored 0 TDs and had only one FG for 3 points total, at home on Monday Night.

 

Season contrasts of JP in his only starting season v. Edwards last year:

 

TDs

 

JP:

3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0

Edwards:

4, 2, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

 

Rating

 

JP

142.5

140.8

111.7

101.6

97.1

90.7

86.5

86.3

86.1

84.1

74.9

70.7

68.5

65.6

63.6

35.8

 

Edwards

111.4

98.5

82.8

74.1

65

63.6

56.3

50.6

43.1

42.8

 

Completion %

 

JP

75.0%

71.9%

68.4%

68.4%

66.7%

66.7%

65.2%

64.0%

61.8%

61.1%

57.9%

57.6%

57.1%

56.8%

53.3%

51.9%

 

Edwards

78.6%

74.2%

66.7%

61.1%

53.3%

52.4%

50.0%

47.8%

39.4%

34.6%

 

Yards

 

JP

340

328

266

237

224

207

200

192

184

169

164

157

115

102

83

83

 

Edwards

257

234

176

165

161

153

133

130

124

97

 

YPA

 

JP

10.5

10.5

8.9

8.6

8.1

7.7

7.1

7.0

6.9

6.8

6.8

6.1

6.0

5.0

4.6

4.3

 

Edwards

8.4

7.3

7.2

7.1

6.2

6.2

5.7

4.9

4.4

3.8

 

Other Information

 

Under Edwards last season the team's offense averaged 1.1 offensive TDs/game with or w/o the first New England game that Edwards played in with JP coming out for injury on the first drive. The team's offense averaged 13.4 points per game otherwise w/o that same NE game, 12.8 ppg with it.

 

Without the one good Miami game that Edwards had the team averaged 3/4-ths of a TD/game offensively and 11.2 ppg offensively otherwise.

 

Under Losman in '06, the team's offense averaged 1-3/4-ths TDs/game, a full TD/game more offensively and 16.6 ppg offensively otherwise.

 

Losman personally passed or ran for 1.25 TDs/game in '06. Edwards personally passed or ran for .9 TDs/game last year.

 

In his first four games overall and first four starts overall, the ones that JP got in '05 after being yanked in favor of the new regime's boy-brought-on Holcomb, the team got 1 passing TD and 2 rushing TDs. (both McGahee)

 

In Edwards first four games overall the team got 1 passing TD and 3 rushing TDs. (all Lynch) In Edwards' first four starts the team got the same 1 passing TD and 2 rushing TDs that it got under Losman while JP had that same crappy line mentioned next and without Lynch.

 

So for those saying what you said, while in your minds it might be true, there certainly is a debate and the only way that someone could reasonably say what you said is to accompany it by saying or implying that the stats, data, and facts don't matter. For anyone considering only the facts of ball movement, efficiency, and scoring then JP has done more on a per-game basis and matching up game-by-game than Edwards has no matter how you slice it. But hey, for those that want to say that they enjoy seeing the team put up fewer 1st downs, converting fewer 3rd downs, getting fewer points and yards and generally seeing the offense do less but enjoy watching the way in which it is done, then great, you can say that. But what you cannot say without any certainty whatsoever and in the glaring midst of facts proving otherwise, is that this team's offense performed better under Edwards than it has under Losman. And Edwards undoubtedly had a better OL too.

 

Now Edwards may be better this year, but we don't know that right now. So this is pure speculation at best, foolishness otherwise.

 

Throw in the fact that JP didn't have Lynch in '06 or Dockery or Walker whom you will also suggest are all that, but even so, they are better than JP's starting line that consisted Peters just learning the LT position with Mike Gandy in there otherwise to start the season, Gandy and Reyes at LG, Villarrial and Preston at RG and Pennington at RT. Although I'm sure you'll rant on about how that line was just fine now or how McGahee is better than Lynch.

 

This past season, JP got the nod early with Lynch just learning the ropes and with newbies Dockery and Walker just playing their first games on this line. And Lynch also wasn't in there in weeks 11 and 12 against NE and Jax, two of the league's best Ds last year, yet in spite of that the offense under JP averaged 1.5 offensive TDs/game contrasted with Edwards 1.1 and against some of the worst Ds in the league too. JP's offense in those two games put up about the same number of offensive points, and more yards than Edwards averaged on the season with Anthony Thomas as the starter.

 

So say what you want, and this is no particular endorsement of JP, but there is no way in hell that anyone can make an argument that the offense performed better under Edwards if the facts are used and you can slice it any way that you would like to.

 

Wow, you did some work here and it reveals alot. Take all of the emotion and opinion out of this debate and these numbers say plenty. Those in the Edwards camp will say the JP didn't back up his '06 season early in '07 and there is some truth to that. What is still a mystery to me is who in the Bills org made the decision to pull them plug on JP and exactly why. It may be quite some time before we know if ever.

[keepthefaith]

Wow, you did some work here and it reveals alot. Take all of the emotion and opinion out of this debate and these numbers say plenty. Those in the Edwards camp will say the JP didn't back up his '06 season early in '07 and there is some truth to that. What is still a mystery to me is who in the Bills org made the decision to pull them plug on JP and exactly why. It may be quite some time before we know if ever.

 

Looking at these numbers again, what really jumps out at me is the perception that Trent is so accurate when in 40% of his games his completion pecentage is 50% or less while JPs never was below 50% and.

[canbuffan34]

Looking at these numbers again, what really jumps out at me is the perception that Trent is so accurate when in 40% of his games his completion pecentage is 50% or less while JPs never was below 50% and.

Several months ago Turk made reference to his offense suiting JP as well as Trent, and I posed the question to all of you "was he just being PC because JP was still part of the team?" and most of you believed that was the case. I still wonder about whether this FO is ready to close the book on the JP issue or in fact they want to keep him here as an insurance policy in case Trent gets hurt. I'm not a JP apologist or a Trent worshipper, but objectively speaking I believe it was SF's ineptitude that caused this mess, I think both QB's would/will look better this year.

[Albany,n.y.]

Edwards is the starter, so there is no "controversy" or question as to that. Jauron & Co. have opted for that.

 

But to say that without a doubt he's better is one of the dumbest statements that anyone here could ever make and this season will bear that out.

 

Having said that, neither appears to be the answer at QB for us and with JP wanting out of here anyway, it will leave the team high and dry and we can finally tag those responsible and hopefully move on from this and get this team turned around although I doubt that will happen too. But Jauron, Levy (now gone), and our illustrious personnel department that has laid far more goose eggs than hatched swans should be fired. Naturally that won't happen though, not in Buffalo.

 

Regardless, to say that JP "got four seasons to prove himself" is asinine. He had one season, '06.

 

In '04, his rookie year, he was injured early in the season and never started or played.

 

In '05 he was jockeyed in and out with Holcomb all season. He started four games, didn't play well in his first few games in the NFL as all but a rookie, got yanked, then went back in for a few games and got yanked again and in spite of playing no worse than Edwards did last year and with a worse surrounding cast, was yanked again late in the season in favor of Holcomb, another message board hero for some.

 

In '06 JP finally started. He put up 17 TDs, had 9 INTs, rushed for 1 more TD, and had 10 games with ratings of higher than 84, six higher than 90, and 4 higher than 100.

With JP under center the Bills lost five games by 1 point twice, 2 points once, and 3 points twice with the offense scoring 10 points (@ NE), 17 points (@ Detroit), 9 points/3 FGs (@ Indy), 21 points (SD), and 29 points (Tennessee) for an average of over 17 points with obviously some very good defenses in there.

 

Last year the Bills lost one game under Edwards game by fewer than 8 points and in that game the offense scored 0 TDs and had only one FG for 3 points total, at home on Monday Night.

 

Season contrasts of JP in his only starting season v. Edwards last year:

 

TDs

 

JP:

3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0

Edwards:

4, 2, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

 

Rating

 

JP

142.5

140.8

111.7

101.6

97.1

90.7

86.5

86.3

86.1

84.1

74.9

70.7

68.5

65.6

63.6

35.8

 

Edwards

111.4

98.5

82.8

74.1

65

63.6

56.3

50.6

43.1

42.8

 

Completion %

 

JP

75.0%

71.9%

68.4%

68.4%

66.7%

66.7%

65.2%

64.0%

61.8%

61.1%

57.9%

57.6%

57.1%

56.8%

53.3%

51.9%

 

Edwards

78.6%

74.2%

66.7%

61.1%

53.3%

52.4%

50.0%

47.8%

39.4%

34.6%

 

Yards

 

JP

340

328

266

237

224

207

200

192

184

169

164

157

115

102

83

83

 

Edwards

257

234

176

165

161

153

133

130

124

97

 

YPA

 

JP

10.5

10.5

8.9

8.6

8.1

7.7

7.1

7.0

6.9

6.8

6.8

6.1

6.0

5.0

4.6

4.3

 

Edwards

8.4

7.3

7.2

7.1

6.2

6.2

5.7

4.9

4.4

3.8

 

Other Information

 

Under Edwards last season the team's offense averaged 1.1 offensive TDs/game with or w/o the first New England game that Edwards played in with JP coming out for injury on the first drive. The team's offense averaged 13.4 points per game otherwise w/o that same NE game, 12.8 ppg with it.

 

Without the one good Miami game that Edwards had the team averaged 3/4-ths of a TD/game offensively and 11.2 ppg offensively otherwise.

 

Under Losman in '06, the team's offense averaged 1-3/4-ths TDs/game, a full TD/game more offensively and 16.6 ppg offensively otherwise.

 

Losman personally passed or ran for 1.25 TDs/game in '06. Edwards personally passed or ran for .9 TDs/game last year.

 

In his first four games overall and first four starts overall, the ones that JP got in '05 after being yanked in favor of the new regime's boy-brought-on Holcomb, the team got 1 passing TD and 2 rushing TDs. (both McGahee)

 

In Edwards first four games overall the team got 1 passing TD and 3 rushing TDs. (all Lynch) In Edwards' first four starts the team got the same 1 passing TD and 2 rushing TDs that it got under Losman while JP had that same crappy line mentioned next and without Lynch.

 

So for those saying what you said, while in your minds it might be true, there certainly is a debate and the only way that someone could reasonably say what you said is to accompany it by saying or implying that the stats, data, and facts don't matter. For anyone considering only the facts of ball movement, efficiency, and scoring then JP has done more on a per-game basis and matching up game-by-game than Edwards has no matter how you slice it. But hey, for those that want to say that they enjoy seeing the team put up fewer 1st downs, converting fewer 3rd downs, getting fewer points and yards and generally seeing the offense do less but enjoy watching the way in which it is done, then great, you can say that. But what you cannot say without any certainty whatsoever and in the glaring midst of facts proving otherwise, is that this team's offense performed better under Edwards than it has under Losman. And Edwards undoubtedly had a better OL too.

 

Now Edwards may be better this year, but we don't know that right now. So this is pure speculation at best, foolishness otherwise.

 

Throw in the fact that JP didn't have Lynch in '06 or Dockery or Walker whom you will also suggest are all that, but even so, they are better than JP's starting line that consisted Peters just learning the LT position with Mike Gandy in there otherwise to start the season, Gandy and Reyes at LG, Villarrial and Preston at RG and Pennington at RT. Although I'm sure you'll rant on about how that line was just fine now or how McGahee is better than Lynch.

 

This past season, JP got the nod early with Lynch just learning the ropes and with newbies Dockery and Walker just playing their first games on this line. And Lynch also wasn't in there in weeks 11 and 12 against NE and Jax, two of the league's best Ds last year, yet in spite of that the offense under JP averaged 1.5 offensive TDs/game contrasted with Edwards 1.1 and against some of the worst Ds in the league too. JP's offense in those two games put up about the same number of offensive points, and more yards than Edwards averaged on the season with Anthony Thomas as the starter.

 

So say what you want, and this is no particular endorsement of JP, but there is no way in hell that anyone can make an argument that the offense performed better under Edwards if the facts are used and you can slice it any way that you would like to.

This post proves, once again, why when the teams meet early in the week they look at film. The coaches don't review the prior game by quouting stats to the players and eliciting their comments. In the case of JP vs Trent all one has to do is WATCH the 2 play and there is no comparison-Edwards towers over Losman. Maybe after the season, when Trent puts up big numbers he will silence all the stat-boys, as JP sinks into statistical oblivion.

One more thing. Anyone who uses the JP was injured in his 1st season is jumping the shark in their post. Speaking of facts, JP missed the 1st 4 regular season games in a season where he wasn't expected to start a game to begin with. So how does missing 4 friggin games turn into a season killer? Just to set the record straight, JP did play in 4 games that year, so the statement In '04, his rookie year, he was injured early in the season and never started or played.

is factually inaccurate. Who can forget JP's first appearance, totally unprepared as he entered game 9 in New England. So JP had 12 weeks in the season to beat out Shane Matthews for the 2nd string spot and could never do it, he spent his rookie season 3rd on the depth chart, available for 12 games, and never could move up over Shane. Meanwhile, Edwards was so impressive in pre-season, the Bills cut their veteran 2nd stringer and elevated Trent before the season even started.

[colin]

Why do you feel the need to be such a #ICK?

 

 

because the feeding of the trolls here is retarded.

 

the arguments for jp being anything but a first round bust scrub are just garbage. he's the same guy he's been since day one and he's

shown no improvement on any of his weakpoints. he's never shown any real chops to be an nfl starter. he was given chance after chance and the last

thing he did (in his 4th nfl season, and 3rd as the starter on day 1) was fumble on 4th down. he stinks.

[keepthefaith]

This post proves, once again, why when the teams meet early in the week they look at film. The coaches don't review the prior game by quouting stats to the players and eliciting their comments. In the case of JP vs Trent all one has to do is WATCH the 2 play and there is no comparison-Edwards towers over Losman. Maybe after the season, when Trent puts up big numbers he will silence all the stat-boys, as JP sinks into statistical oblivion.

One more thing. Anyone who uses the JP was injured in his 1st season is jumping the shark in their post. Speaking of facts, JP missed the 1st 4 regular season games in a season where he wasn't expected to start a game to begin with. So how does missing 4 friggin games turn into a season killer? Just to set the record straight, JP did play in 4 games that year, so the statement In '04, his rookie year, he was injured early in the season and never started or played.

is factually inaccurate. Who can forget JP's first appearance, totally unprepared as he entered game 9 in New England. So JP had 12 weeks in the season to beat out Shane Matthews for the 2nd string spot and could never do it, he spent his rookie season 3rd on the depth chart, available for 12 games, and never could move up over Shane. Meanwhile, Edwards was so impressive in pre-season, the Bills cut their veteran 2nd stringer and elevated Trent before the season even started.

 

We can agree that Trent has the opportunity to silence his critics. All he has to do is stay healthy and play much better than last year. Complete more passes, throw more touchdowns, fewer interceptions and show that he can bring the team from behind and also put a weak team away. Make some big plays when needed. No big deal. Just go out and do it.

[Ralonzo]

Speaking of film, was there ever any real confirmation that opposing D's had figured out Edwards was telegraphing plays by

some motion prior to the snap? Was that an urban myth, or was that actually happening?

 

I GUARANTEE Steve Failchild was tipping off plays with motion prior to the snap. Like, for instance, putting Josh Reed in motion and running off RT.

 

Anyone got that one Jason Taylor quote, "Just about every play, we knew exactly what was coming" (paraphrasing). And they still managed to lose