K-9 Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 It's funny how an entire offseason can make many fans forget how bad Edwards played once the opposing defenses had film on him. Dead issue? Hardly. If Edwards doesn't learn how to burn defenses, this issue WILL come back to the forefront. If Losman was so awful and Edwards was so great, why were their stats nearly identical last year? You guys crack me up. If our WRs, TEs, and RBs don't learn their reads to burn defenses the same thing will happen. Parrish and Royal can't see a hot read to save their lives. It ain't all on the QB much of the time. Oh and just to show I'm an equal opporutunity critic, their missed reads made JP look bad at times last year also. GO BILLS!!!
Sisyphean Bills Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 Compare Losman's INT/SACK/FUMBLE totals per attempt with Edwards'. The "badness" ratio I call it. Let's compare INT% of 6 QBs that played in very similar systems last season. 2.7: Brodie Croyle 3.0: Trent Edwards 3.4: JP Losman 3.6: Jon Kitna 3.9: Damon Huard 4.0: Marc Bulger Now, if we use the QB rating, we get a different picture. (It also suggests that the "4th year guy was about the same as the rookie stats wise" is rather broad stroke of the brush.) 80.9: Jon Kitna 76.9: JP Losman 76.8: Damon Huard 70.4: Trent Edwards 70.3: Marc Bulger 69.9: Brodie Croyle BTW, Cleo Lemon, Travaris Jackson, Vince Young, Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington, and Jason Campbell all had higher QB ratings than 70.4 in 07.
krazykat Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 Speaking of film, was there ever any real confirmation that opposing D's had figured out Edwards was telegraphing plays bysome motion prior to the snap? Was that an urban myth, or was that actually happening? Well, you're right, he may just have been leading our team to a palty one offensive TD per game without defenses keying in. Really raises ones hopes for this season, huh.
Sisyphean Bills Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 I recall one of the announcers stating that on run plays he held his hands lower to the ground before the snap or something like that.I'm sure it's a problem that has been addressed and corrected. Rich Gannon was very critical, IIRC, of the Bills and was able to predict plays from tells with wicked accuracy. He also was pretty critical of the defensive scheme. I know he called out some Bills defensive players for essentially being slow learners and not playing their roles within what he considered a pretty basic D. Anyway, no worries. I'm sure the audibles will fix it.
Dan Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 Speaking of film, was there ever any real confirmation that opposing D's had figured out Edwards was telegraphing plays bysome motion prior to the snap? Was that an urban myth, or was that actually happening? There were all sorts of telegraphing last season. 1 and 10, Tight End motions = strong side run. Just one example.
Fan in San Diego Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 Edwards is the starter, so there is no "controversy" or question as to that. Jauron & Co. have opted for that. But to say that without a doubt he's better is one of the dumbest statements that anyone here could ever make and this season will bear that out. Having said that, neither appears to be the answer at QB for us and with JP wanting out of here anyway, it will leave the team high and dry and we can finally tag those responsible and hopefully move on from this and get this team turned around although I doubt that will happen too. But Jauron, Levy (now gone), and our illustrious personnel department that has laid far more goose eggs than hatched swans should be fired. Naturally that won't happen though, not in Buffalo. Regardless, to say that JP "got four seasons to prove himself" is asinine. He had one season, '06. In '04, his rookie year, he was injured early in the season and never started or played. In '05 he was jockeyed in and out with Holcomb all season. He started four games, didn't play well in his first few games in the NFL as all but a rookie, got yanked, then went back in for a few games and got yanked again and in spite of playing no worse than Edwards did last year and with a worse surrounding cast, was yanked again late in the season in favor of Holcomb, another message board hero for some. In '06 JP finally started. He put up 17 TDs, had 9 INTs, rushed for 1 more TD, and had 10 games with ratings of higher than 84, six higher than 90, and 4 higher than 100. With JP under center the Bills lost five games by 1 point twice, 2 points once, and 3 points twice with the offense scoring 10 points (@ NE), 17 points (@ Detroit), 9 points/3 FGs (@ Indy), 21 points (SD), and 29 points (Tennessee) for an average of over 17 points with obviously some very good defenses in there. Last year the Bills lost one game under Edwards game by fewer than 8 points and in that game the offense scored 0 TDs and had only one FG for 3 points total, at home on Monday Night. Season contrasts of JP in his only starting season v. Edwards last year: TDs JP: 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0 Edwards: 4, 2, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 Rating JP 142.5 140.8 111.7 101.6 97.1 90.7 86.5 86.3 86.1 84.1 74.9 70.7 68.5 65.6 63.6 35.8 Edwards 111.4 98.5 82.8 74.1 65 63.6 56.3 50.6 43.1 42.8 Completion % JP 75.0% 71.9% 68.4% 68.4% 66.7% 66.7% 65.2% 64.0% 61.8% 61.1% 57.9% 57.6% 57.1% 56.8% 53.3% 51.9% Edwards 78.6% 74.2% 66.7% 61.1% 53.3% 52.4% 50.0% 47.8% 39.4% 34.6% Yards JP 340 328 266 237 224 207 200 192 184 169 164 157 115 102 83 83 Edwards 257 234 176 165 161 153 133 130 124 97 YPA JP 10.5 10.5 8.9 8.6 8.1 7.7 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.1 6.0 5.0 4.6 4.3 Edwards 8.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 6.2 6.2 5.7 4.9 4.4 3.8 Other Information Under Edwards last season the team's offense averaged 1.1 offensive TDs/game with or w/o the first New England game that Edwards played in with JP coming out for injury on the first drive. The team's offense averaged 13.4 points per game otherwise w/o that same NE game, 12.8 ppg with it. Without the one good Miami game that Edwards had the team averaged 3/4-ths of a TD/game offensively and 11.2 ppg offensively otherwise. Under Losman in '06, the team's offense averaged 1-3/4-ths TDs/game, a full TD/game more offensively and 16.6 ppg offensively otherwise. Losman personally passed or ran for 1.25 TDs/game in '06. Edwards personally passed or ran for .9 TDs/game last year. In his first four games overall and first four starts overall, the ones that JP got in '05 after being yanked in favor of the new regime's boy-brought-on Holcomb, the team got 1 passing TD and 2 rushing TDs. (both McGahee) In Edwards first four games overall the team got 1 passing TD and 3 rushing TDs. (all Lynch) In Edwards' first four starts the team got the same 1 passing TD and 2 rushing TDs that it got under Losman while JP had that same crappy line mentioned next and without Lynch. So for those saying what you said, while in your minds it might be true, there certainly is a debate and the only way that someone could reasonably say what you said is to accompany it by saying or implying that the stats, data, and facts don't matter. For anyone considering only the facts of ball movement, efficiency, and scoring then JP has done more on a per-game basis and matching up game-by-game than Edwards has no matter how you slice it. But hey, for those that want to say that they enjoy seeing the team put up fewer 1st downs, converting fewer 3rd downs, getting fewer points and yards and generally seeing the offense do less but enjoy watching the way in which it is done, then great, you can say that. But what you cannot say without any certainty whatsoever and in the glaring midst of facts proving otherwise, is that this team's offense performed better under Edwards than it has under Losman. And Edwards undoubtedly had a better OL too. Now Edwards may be better this year, but we don't know that right now. So this is pure speculation at best, foolishness otherwise. Throw in the fact that JP didn't have Lynch in '06 or Dockery or Walker whom you will also suggest are all that, but even so, they are better than JP's starting line that consisted Peters just learning the LT position with Mike Gandy in there otherwise to start the season, Gandy and Reyes at LG, Villarrial and Preston at RG and Pennington at RT. Although I'm sure you'll rant on about how that line was just fine now or how McGahee is better than Lynch. This past season, JP got the nod early with Lynch just learning the ropes and with newbies Dockery and Walker just playing their first games on this line. And Lynch also wasn't in there in weeks 11 and 12 against NE and Jax, two of the league's best Ds last year, yet in spite of that the offense under JP averaged 1.5 offensive TDs/game contrasted with Edwards 1.1 and against some of the worst Ds in the league too. JP's offense in those two games put up about the same number of offensive points, and more yards than Edwards averaged on the season with Anthony Thomas as the starter. So say what you want, and this is no particular endorsement of JP, but there is no way in hell that anyone can make an argument that the offense performed better under Edwards if the facts are used and you can slice it any way that you would like to. Good post, all good points. I wonder how much both QB's also suffered from the predictable play calling of Stepchild. The stats would suggest that defenses increasingly dialed into our system and also injuries mounted last year as the year wore on contributling to the lessening of production. It will be very interesting to see how Turk's offense keeps defenses off balance and an increase in production. Also Hardy should help a great deal. This is going to one of the best years in a long time. Lastly we probably will get to see JP start a few games this year as injuries are a part of the game, so we will be able to compare who is better at QB.
Sisyphean Bills Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 Good post, all good points. I wonder how much both QB's also suffered from the predictable play calling of Stepchild. The stats would suggest that defenses increasingly dialed into our system and also injuries mounted last year as the year wore on contributling to the lessening of production.It will be very interesting to see how Turk's offense keeps defenses off balance and an increase in production. Also Hardy should help a great deal. This is going to one of the best years in a long time. Lastly we probably will get to see JP start a few games this year as injuries are a part of the game, so we will be able to compare who is better at QB. You may not have meant this, but just what were the "mounting injuries" situation on offense that decreased offensive production? Let's take a look at the offense and who actually missed time. RB: Lynch was dinged up for 3 games and came back. A-Train was lost for the last 6 games. The combination of the above meant Action Jackson got to play in 8 games. WR: Price missed 12 games. Josh Reed 1. Lee Evans 0. Parrish missed 0. QB: Losman missed 3+ games "due to injury" but it was unclear if part of it wasn't more of a benching. Edwards missed the reminder of the Jets game and returned to a backup role until Losman got benched permanently. Again, hard to say how much was purely injury related and how much was leaving Losman in there. TE: Royal was active 16 games. Everett missed most of 16 games. His replacement Gaines filled in "well" -- so well he was let go at the end of the year and the Bills went after Teyo Johnson, who was himself cut before training camp. OL: The starting 5 went the whole year with Peters getting knocked out in week 16. So, I don't really see where the injuries started mounting causing a reduction in productivity as an effect on offense. One might say Peerless Price was a big loss, but his production was a paltry <2 receptions per game. One might say the Losman injury disrupted things, but they better be wearing an asbestos suit and be ready to get flamed. One might say that the loss of A-Train was the decline "towards the end of the season", because his was the only loss in the back half. But that would contradict people that say Fred Jackson was an instant upgrade to the plodding Thomas and point to Thomas being unceremoniously dumped at the end of the year. That leaves (backup TE) Everett's devastating injury, which happened in the 1st game of the year. It doesn't add up. There were other teams in the NFL that had far bigger offensive injury situations than the Buffalo Bills and yet their offenses were statistically better (Rams, Panthers come to mind). Meanwhile, a largely healthy Bills unit, depending on the stat, ran neck and neck with the Chiefs and 49ers for worst offense in the NFL.
tbonehawaii Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 As you can tell by my number of posts I don't contribute alot to this forum but I do read it everyday. After reading endless discussions and arguements about JP vs. Trent, I'd like to offer you all my views on this subject after which you can either agree or "tear me a new one" LOL. Trent Edwards- What we know for sure is he received a ringing endorsement from the late Bill Walsh. That's a bold statement! I watched an NFL Films show just today on Bill Walsh and the hand he had in drafting Joe Montana when all the other teams in the league weren't even considering him until at least the sixth round. I'm pretty sure that Walsh is a much better talent evaluator than any of us. The kid did look great for a rookie, we all know he has a quick release and he's obviously very smart and can process info quickly. Remember what Flutie said, "the QB position isn't about size, its about decision-making" I think Edwards' upside is tremendous especially after seeing that he came to OTA's with added muscle. This tells me that he figured out his own shortcomings ie: smaller frame which led to injuries and not having the rep as a deep ball passing threat. I can foresee a very bright future for this kid IF he can progress the same way we've seen him do so far. JP Losman- What we know for sure is he is probably the most accurate deep ball passer we've seen since the days of Jimbo. That too is a bold statement! I don't feel that JP is nearly as smart a QB as most of the greats, but what hurts him the most is he doesn't appear to be mentally as tough as he needs to be in order to be successful. Every press conference I've ever seen him in he appears like he is always trying to convince you that he knows what he is talking about but that he himself doesn't believe the words. Don't get me wrong, I like this guy and I believe his greatest successes in the NFL would come as a very good backup. After all, what's wrong with being a Frank Reich, We all love that guy for what he did for the organization, don't we? I do have to take issue with some of you who state that JP regresssed in 07, I think it was the offence that regressed under Steve Fairchild in 07 and should Trent go down with an injury this year, I think a few of you might be surprised at how well JPL might look in another system under another co-ordinator, one who actually played the position of quarterback! Go Bills! I like trent too but walh's endorsement doesn't mean much when after he said jake plummer would be thw next joe montana.... http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summa...286-5816799_ITM
Flbillsfan#1 Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 Unbelievable. Your naivete is nothing short of amazing as evidenced by your inclusion of ONLY regular season games as the entire body of work with which JP has had to prove his case. You conveniently forget elements that coaches, scouts, and other personnel people feel are very important as well. JP has had 4 full mini-camps, OTAs, training camps and pre-seasons (with the exception of his rookie season of which he only missed 7 weeks and was STILL around the classroom and running the opponent's O when he got healthy). Not to mention countless hours in the classrooms with his coaches. EVERY SINGLE SNAP HE TOOK during all those mini-camps, OTAs, training camps and pre-season and regular season games IS TAPED for evaluation. When the coaches evaluate each and every snap they have something none of us have when making that evaluation: the CONTEXT of the playcall and the taped EXECUTION of EVERY PLAYER INVOLVED IN THE PLAY on both sides of the ball. So go ahead and keep on insisting that '06 was JP's only chance in the league. He's got a FAR bigger body of work available for evaluation than just the 16 games you keep saying he's had. GO BILLS!!! Ian Beckles former OT for Tampa & Philly has said EVERY time he had a new coach, that coach wanted him to use a different technique than he was previously taught. Sometimes completely opposite of what he was previously taught. This is the problem with your 4 year mantra. It would be like year 1 you study Chinese, year 2 you study French, year 3 you study German. Year 4 you are EXPECTED to be fluent in Arabic because you studied a foreign language for the 3 previous years. JP has had NUMEROUS coaching changes & different offenses to learn in his 4 years, aside from the fact he played on CRAPPY teams that has been his major problem. I just heard someone on TV say that was Alex Smiths problem in SF. Jeff Garcia has said it took him 2/3 of the season to fully understand Tampa's offense last year, & he is a very experienced QB who played in basicly the same type of offense most of his NFL career.
Dan Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 Ian Beckles former OT for Tampa & Philly has said EVERY time he had a new coach, that coach wanted him to use a different technique than he was previously taught. Sometimes completely opposite of what he was previously taught. This is the problem with your 4 year mantra. It would be like year 1 you study Chinese, year 2 you study French, year 3 you study German. Year 4 you are EXPECTED to be fluent in Arabic because you studied a foreign language for the 3 previous years. JP has had NUMEROUS coaching changes & different offenses to learn in his 4 years, aside from the fact he played on CRAPPY teams that has been his major problem. I just heard someone on TV say that was Alex Smiths problem in SF. Jeff Garcia has said it took him 2/3 of the season to fully understand Tampa's offense last year, & he is a very experienced QB who played in basicly the same offense most of his NFL career. It does make one wonder... with the expectations to win now, with the short window for players and coaches, with the possibility of injuries changing the players - wouldn't it make sense for offenses to become more simple than more complex? If it takes a seasoned vet a year to learn an offense, how can anyone expect a rookie or 2nd year player to excel?
Flbillsfan#1 Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 It does make one wonder... with the expectations to win now, with the short window for players and coaches, with the possibility of injuries changing the players - wouldn't it make sense for offenses to become more simple than more complex? If it takes a seasoned vet a year to learn an offense, how can anyone expect a rookie or 2nd year player to excel? I agree, & that is the biggest problem with free agency.
Flbillsfan#1 Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 do you post with your game used jp losman jock wrapped firmly around your nose, or does the man-scent just get you so hot and bothered you can't type? Why do you feel the need to be such a #ICK?
MikeInABQ Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 It's funny how an entire offseason can make many fans forget how bad Edwards played once the opposing defenses had film on him. Dead issue? Hardly. If Edwards doesn't learn how to burn defenses, this issue WILL come back to the forefront. If Losman was so awful and Edwards was so great, why were their stats nearly identical last year? You guys crack me up. BINGO. Some people need to clear their plates faster than others, and declare things as "finished" when, for all intents and purposes, it hasn't even begun. Trent's first year as starter hasn't even begun yet, and he DID struggle a LOT against the stronger defenses last year. He hasn't proven a THING to anyone with a FUNCTIONING brain, except that we have a longshot as starter and a perennial underachiever as a now, unhappy backup. Nothing else is dead here, despite, perhaps, the heads of those who post in a thread just to tell us it wasn't worth posting in it.
Fan in San Diego Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 You may not have meant this, but just what were the "mounting injuries" situation on offense that decreased offensive production? Let's take a look at the offense and who actually missed time. RB: Lynch was dinged up for 3 games and came back. A-Train was lost for the last 6 games. The combination of the above meant Action Jackson got to play in 8 games. WR: Price missed 12 games. Josh Reed 1. Lee Evans 0. Parrish missed 0. QB: Losman missed 3+ games "due to injury" but it was unclear if part of it wasn't more of a benching. Edwards missed the reminder of the Jets game and returned to a backup role until Losman got benched permanently. Again, hard to say how much was purely injury related and how much was leaving Losman in there. TE: Royal was active 16 games. Everett missed most of 16 games. His replacement Gaines filled in "well" -- so well he was let go at the end of the year and the Bills went after Teyo Johnson, who was himself cut before training camp. OL: The starting 5 went the whole year with Peters getting knocked out in week 16. So, I don't really see where the injuries started mounting causing a reduction in productivity as an effect on offense. One might say Peerless Price was a big loss, but his production was a paltry <2 receptions per game. One might say the Losman injury disrupted things, but they better be wearing an asbestos suit and be ready to get flamed. One might say that the loss of A-Train was the decline "towards the end of the season", because his was the only loss in the back half. But that would contradict people that say Fred Jackson was an instant upgrade to the plodding Thomas and point to Thomas being unceremoniously dumped at the end of the year. That leaves (backup TE) Everett's devastating injury, which happened in the 1st game of the year. It doesn't add up. There were other teams in the NFL that had far bigger offensive injury situations than the Buffalo Bills and yet their offenses were statistically better (Rams, Panthers come to mind). Meanwhile, a largely healthy Bills unit, depending on the stat, ran neck and neck with the Chiefs and 49ers for worst offense in the NFL. The defenses inability to get off the field limits the number of offensive snaps to score points. If your offense is standing on the sidelines, the stats are going to be going down. Number of total snaps per game at the start of the season vs. the end of the season would be interesting to see.
Flbillsfan#1 Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 The defenses inability to get off the field limits the number of offensive snaps to score points. If your offense is standing on the sidelines, the stats are going to be going down. Number of total snaps per game at the start of the season vs. the end of the season would be interesting to see. Stats can be made to support any position you want to take. Are a low # of offensive snaps due to the D being unable to get off the field or the offenses inability to stay on it (3&out)?
Captain Hindsight Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 I'd say a little of both. Clearly they called a majority of plays that had the deep ball option for JP, and he took his shots in the practices I saw. On the other hand, they seem to call more runs when Trent is in there, but he did hit some deeper routes, but often when there was a chance to go deep, he checked down and hit the underneath 7-10 yd route. From what I could hear from the coaching staff, they were pleased with his conservative approach. I got the distinct impression that they wanted him to get the short stuff down first, and then move on to the longer stuff. There's little doubt that right now, JP has the timing of the deep ball down better than Trent. But we are talking about something that is easily corrected and I assume should be able to be worked out over the next week or so, especially with Reed. I want to be clear: arm strength is not the reason Trent missed some of the deep routes. There were many occasions where he zipped a ball out in the flat from a three step drop, or he zipped it to Lee Evans on a deeper than normal out route(I don't know the exact name of those). He simply put too much air under the ball on about 25% of the deep balls he threw. Based on what I saw live at the Ravens game, vs. what I saw on Friday, clearly whatever he did in the off-season has worked because he just looks better, whether its his feet, his throws, his "poise", whatever, he looks better. There is also little doubt that JP can get the job done throwing the ball deep/intermediate routes, and right now he appears to be better at that. On the other hand, there's also little doubt, for me anyway, that Trent has a better command of the offense on the whole than JP. Trent made 1 mistake the entire day on Friday that I saw, other than the too much air thing. He moved well, he was decisive with the ball, and his accuracy was nothing short of impressive. Many many times the D was right there and he had a 2-3 foot window to hit. He hit them every time, except the one, even on timing routes. JP, well, like I said in my report, he looked like JP. I'd say he seemed a little more comfortable out there, but on the whole, there were far too many instances where the ball wasn't delivered where it needed to be, even though he wasn't feeling any pressure from the D line. JP made about 5 clear mistakes...some that would have really hurt, to Trent's one, and I think that's what's got him as our #2 QB. There's no doubt he is serviceable, he just doesn't "look as right" as Edwards does out there. Have you ever tried to throw a deep ball? The deep ball is one of the hardest throws a QB has to make. To put that much torque and power into your throw and have have it land in the hands of your reciever is pretty damn hard. I know Trent is capable of making that throw, what bothers me most about him is he seems reluctant to do it sometimes
Sisyphean Bills Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 The defenses inability to get off the field limits the number of offensive snaps to score points. If your offense is standing on the sidelines, the stats are going to be going down. Number of total snaps per game at the start of the season vs. the end of the season would be interesting to see. Unfortunately, the data doesn't support this. The first 4 games of the season, the Bills averaged 49.5 offensive plays per game (10.25 ppg). The last 4 games of the season, the Bills averaged 60.5 offensive plays per game (17 ppg, thanks to the Dolphins). PS: Games 5-8, they averaged 60 snaps a game (22.25 ppg). Games 9-12, the average went down to 53.25 offensive plays per game (13.5 ppg). The record: 1-3, 3-1, 2-2, 1-3. So, October was a great month, with the Bungles, Ravens, and Jets on the schedule. PPS: The Bills were the worst team in the NFL in terms of offensive plays (57.4 -- the NFL median was 62.9, which comes to 87 more plays over the season). Note that the Bills were never, for any of the 4 game stretches above, as good as the median NFL offense in terms of snaps per game.
Fan in San Diego Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 Unfortunately, the data doesn't support this. The first 4 games of the season, the Bills averaged 49.5 offensive plays per game (10.25 ppg). The last 4 games of the season, the Bills averaged 60.5 offensive plays per game (17 ppg, thanks to the Dolphins). PS: Games 5-8, they averaged 60 snaps a game (22.25 ppg). Games 9-12, the average went down to 53.25 offensive plays per game (13.5 ppg). The record: 1-3, 3-1, 2-2, 1-3. So, October was a great month, with the Bungles, Ravens, and Jets on the schedule. PPS: The Bills were the worst team in the NFL in terms of offensive plays (57.4 -- the NFL median was 62.9, which comes to 87 more plays over the season). Note that the Bills were never, for any of the 4 game stretches above, as good as the median NFL offense in terms of snaps per game. Interesting stats, thanks for digging them up. I guess the poor offensive production was more because of predictable play calling than injuries. Glad Stepchild is gone. Lets see what the Turk can do !
Sisyphean Bills Posted July 27, 2008 Posted July 27, 2008 Interesting stats, thanks for digging them up. I guess the poor offensive production was more because of predictable play calling than injuries. Glad Stepchild is gone. Lets see what the Turk can do ! In audibles, we trust! No prob, BTW. It was a plausible theory, so I wanted to see if it held up to analysis.
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