John Adams Posted July 17, 2008 Share Posted July 17, 2008 I really don't envy Ben Bernanke right about now. He literally has the weight of the world sitting on his shoulders. Correct me if I'm being melodramatic, but the dam is cracked and looks to be leaking. I hope he can shore it up... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fc250ac2-5361-11...?nclick_check=1 You're being melodramatic. Remember the S&L crisis? This is a cakewalk compared to that nightmare. Over 900 banks failed in a year over that. Talk about clustereffs. Remember the 70s inflation? This too shall pass. The mortgage bust was absolutely necessary. Housing prices will return to earth and we'll all live through it. Banks will weather this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD Jarhead Posted July 17, 2008 Share Posted July 17, 2008 You're being melodramatic. Remember the S&L crisis? This is a cakewalk compared to that nightmare. Over 900 banks failed in a year over that. Talk about clustereffs. Remember the 70s inflation? This too shall pass. The mortgage bust was absolutely necessary. Housing prices will return to earth and we'll all live through it. Banks will weather this storm. Isn't that where we're most likely headed right now? The mortgage mess will surely pass, but the dynamics are different today than they were then. I know the sky isn't falling and I apologize if I come across that way when posting. I remember the late seventies very well, although I was only 10-14 during the Jimmuh years so my perspective is one of a teen for the most part. Being from Hamburg my family was greatly affected by Bethlehem Steel shutting down (my step-Dad lost his job) and experienced some very lean times as did many in Buffalo. I realize we have a looong way to go until we see unemployment figures and interest rates where they were then. While certainly that wasn't the end of the world, it wasn't a great time for our nation either. I don't think the outcome of the present situation is certain as of yet and that it could go either way. As mentioned above, the Chinese and oil producing Gulf States have a lot riding on us not melting down. As the old saying goes "When the US sneezes, the world catches a cold". Let's hope that's still a true expression and it's in the Chinese interest to help us get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted July 17, 2008 Share Posted July 17, 2008 Yeah--it's not over and we'll see. Sometimes people can look back on something like this and say it was necessary. Let's hope it's that kind of correction and not an S&L sort of near disaster or a 70s long-term malaise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted July 17, 2008 Share Posted July 17, 2008 Yeah--it's not over and we'll see. Sometimes people can look back on something like this and say it was necessary. Let's hope it's that kind of correction and not an S&L sort of near disaster or a 70s long-term malaise. This is worse than the S&L collapse, because that was largely concentrated in CA & Texas and wasn't global. There was a huge bailout of S&Ls, as there were just many more banks around at that time, but the risk to the overall financial system was lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted July 18, 2008 Share Posted July 18, 2008 http://www.economist.com/finance/displaySt...ory_id=11751139 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD Jarhead Posted July 18, 2008 Share Posted July 18, 2008 http://www.economist.com/finance/displaySt...ory_id=11751139 Let's hope the last paragraph doesn't happen or my silver investment will look real good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted July 18, 2008 Share Posted July 18, 2008 Let's hope the last paragraph doesn't happen or my silver investment will look real good! Guess what? I just took your advice. I bought some silver. Two pairs of siver cufflinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted July 18, 2008 Share Posted July 18, 2008 Let's hope the last paragraph doesn't happen or my silver investment will look real good! You'll have to have bought a hell of a lot of silver to make any difference as a hedge against meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD Jarhead Posted July 18, 2008 Share Posted July 18, 2008 Guess what? I just took your advice. I bought some silver. Two pairs of siver cufflinks. Electroplated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted July 18, 2008 Share Posted July 18, 2008 Electroplated? No, silver colored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RLflutie7 Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 If these big financial firm behemoths can be brought low because of "rumor", then maybe we should regulate the schit out of them. These firms are handling Mom and Dads retirement money and you say because Trader Bob gets spooked and says "Watch out" that Mom and Dads money goes 'poof'? Give me a break. These firms shouldn't be defended, they should be torn down and rebuilt into something more solid that isn't so easily upset by the winds of gossip or Congressman writing letters. I'm just an average schmuck on the street who readily admits I don't have 1/10 of the high finance knowlege that you do, but I don't think years of analysis is needed for my nose to be able to smell the stink that has been rolling in off of Wall Street lately. Hell, my nose was starting to smell the stink years ago when high dollar mortgages were being given to any fool with a pulse even though Greenspan and Co were telling us that the smell was rose petals. Those brillaint money guys are running our financial system and they really thought housing prices would go up forever? Madness. The whole system had descended into madness. I'm not saying you're wrong and Mr Drane is right, or vice versa, but the truth is most likely somewhere in the middle and instead of this pissing contest how's about some common sense analysis of "where do we go from here"? If you remember in 1999, Gavin, I said that we'd be better off if Wall Street crashed. That is the dow jones industrials. The 401k thing is going to be a mess. People trust Wall Street for some reason. Why? Look what they did to housing. Most builders were mom and pop. Now they're publically traded companies. And what a mess they, along with all the rest, created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD Jarhead Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 Here's some more 'good' news on the economic front: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...1/ccview121.xml http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Inves...AndFreddie.aspx A question for the eternal optimists out there- How do you see us making a soft landing out of this mess? To me all signs point to a crash landing where we pray the wheels stay attached. I think it's going to get real ugly...and we've got to hope that people don't panic. Dwight Drane is looking more right every day...just sayin. Here's an interesting opinion from Jim Jubak also: http://video.msn.com/?mkt=en-us&brand=money&tab=s224 Go ahead...kill the messenger. I can take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 Are you auditioning for the snare in Bill's smoking, my homo-rights, and Wacka's stupidty drum kit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 Here's some more 'good' news on the economic front: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...1/ccview121.xml http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Inves...AndFreddie.aspx A question for the eternal optimists out there- How do you see us making a soft landing out of this mess? To me all signs point to a crash landing where we pray the wheels stay attached. I think it's going to get real ugly...and we've got to hope that people don't panic. Dwight Drane is looking more right every day...just sayin. Here's an interesting opinion from Jim Jubak also: http://video.msn.com/?mkt=en-us&brand=money&tab=s224 Go ahead...kill the messenger. I can take it! Think about this excerpt from one of your articles for just a second.... As the Treasury prepares to ride to the rescue of Fannie and Freddie, it's worth noting one little detail: That so-called plan is in reality just a concept. Fannie Mae (FNM, news, msgs) and Freddie Mac (FRE, news, msgs) do not have a liquidity problem that can be solved by the Federal Reserve or even by an injection of Treasury capital. It's a solvency issue. Short-term cash isn't the real problem. Over time, the mortgage giants' liabilities are quite likely to swamp their assets. Thus their assets are contingent, but their debts are forever. Further, if the Treasury is the only entity left willing to buy shares to shore up Fannie and Freddie, what will happen to other troubled financial institutions? Between now and the year's end, more mortgages will percolate through those institutions' balance sheets, creating losses that will force them to seek capital as well. Perhaps I don't understand as much as I should, but how can FNM and FRE have liabilities that will "swamp their assets?" I understand that may be the case if 5-10% of the US population stop paying their mortgages, but thats not really going to happen. Right now you are talking a fractional rate of default, .1%. As long as the cash flows remain steady, we may just get out of this in one piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD Jarhead Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 Actually I was hoping for the high-hat Alright...I'll leave it alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 Think about this excerpt from one of your articles for just a second.... Perhaps I don't understand as much as I should, but how can FNM and FRE have liabilities that will "swamp their assets?" I understand that may be the case if 5-10% of the US population stop paying their mortgages, but thats not really going to happen. Right now you are talking a fractional rate of default, .1%. As long as the cash flows remain steady, we may just get out of this in one piece. When you're talking rate of default, are you referring to loans that are behind or ones that have been foreclosed upon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 When you're talking rate of default, are you referring to loans that are behind or ones that have been foreclosed upon? Foreclosed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 Foreclosed. Is the rate of mortgages that are behind, and are a risk to be foreclosed upon, much higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 Foreclosed. In all fairness, defaults should be counted when there's a payment default. We can split hairs whether it should be 30, 60 or 90 days, but since uncured payment defaults can trigger accounting recognition by the banks that's a very important measure. (and yes bluefire, payment defaults are at much higher levels than foreclosures. There's been an upward hockey stick trend in payment defaults across the board since early 2007, and probably won't peak until 2009) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted July 21, 2008 Share Posted July 21, 2008 In all fairness, defaults should be counted when there's a payment default. We can split hairs whether it should be 30, 60 or 90 days, but since uncured payment defaults can trigger accounting recognition by the banks that's a very important measure. (and yes bluefire, payment defaults are at much higher levels than foreclosures. There's been an upward hockey stick trend in payment defaults across the board since early 2007, and probably won't peak until 2009) Tis what I thought, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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