NK and abductions and WMD

[finknottle]

There was a little bit of discussion recently about how North Korea is *not* effectively blackmailing us by dint of their capacity for destruction, we are just giving them the sorts of trading concessions we would in any negotiation, as we should have been in anyway, etc. Fine. And Bush = Kim Jong Il if you're a relativist.

 

I happened to get caught up in an Independent Lens (PBS) film that is playing right now - despite being in Japanese w/English subtitles, it's really compelling. Called "Abduction - The Megumi Yokota Story," it tells the story of a 13 year old girl who was abducted 30 years ago to train North Korean spies, and secondarily follows some of the other victims. The story is really interesting because it interview all the people, including the beat reporters who finally believed that people were being regularly abducted - normally they seized young couples on dates, sort of a twist on a 50's horror film. The governments refused to comment out of fear of antagonizing NK, and the families involved publically ridiculed for over a decade. It wasn't until after a source in South Korea leaked it to a Japanese reporter that they had a North Korean defector who had known her at spy school (1997), coupled with the earlier case (1987) of a captured female agent from NK who planted the bomb on KAL 858 (killing 115) who confessed that she was taught Japanese by a Japanese native matching Megumi, that the Japanese government was forced to acknowledge the situation. Anyway, the story takes a lot of twists and turns - after NK half-admitted the presence of *some* Japanese citizens, they said Megumi had lived there but had past away. They were caught trying the pass somebody elses remains!

 

To me, the elephant in the room is why the South Koreans and the Japanese did not reveal what they knew and press the issue in the 1980's. I think it all boils down to the capacity for mass destruction that NK already had. It gets them a free pass, and forces other governments in the region to turn a blind eye to anything NK chooses to do. That's the gold at the end of the WMD rainbow.

 

http://www.pbs.org/independentlens/abduction/

You can also find the full program on YouTube.

 

For those interested in what NK's track record is in terrorism and why some are upset about their delisting,

http://conservativearticleannals.blogspot....apping-and.html

[stuckincincy]

To me, the elephant in the room is why the South Koreans and the Japanese did not reveal what they knew and press the issue in the 1980's. I think it all boils down to the capacity for mass destruction that NK already had. It gets them a free pass, and forces other governments in the region to turn a blind eye to anything NK chooses to do. That's the gold at the end of the WMD rainbow.

 

It certainly is. See also Syria, Pakistan, Iran these days.

 

What would the result have been if the governments of Japan and SK pushed this issue you speak of, in the '80's?

 

War, millions dead, over this 13 year-old?

[finknottle]

War, millions dead, over this 13 year-old?

 

Correct. Same deal with the counterfieting - letting them steal a few hundred million a year is a small price to pay (even if we are the ones who have to pay it). And the state-sponsored drug smuggling. I'm not suggesting that Japan should have acted otherwise, merely pointing out why they kept the truth from their own people and why the US continues to offer sweetheart deals that we wouldn't offer to anyone else.

[finknottle]

It certainly is. See also Syria, Pakistan, Iran these days.

 

I would take Pakistan off that list. Once they've entered the nuclear club they have acted responsibly, in the sense of not using WMD to blackmail their neighbors etc. The only real blemish is the issue of proliferation, and the complete story is not fully known. The fact that Pakistan managed to fight and finish a war with nuclear India without either side threatening offensive use say's alot.

[stuckincincy]

The fact that Pakistan managed to fight and finish a war with nuclear India without either side threatening offensive use say's alot.

 

When was that? What was the finish? I recall 1947, 1965, and looked up 1971.

[finknottle]

When was that? What was the finish? I recall 1947, 1965, and looked up 1971.

 

The Kargil War, summer of '99. It was fought entirely in the Himilayes, lots of tactical chess, almost a million soldiers activated, several tens of thousands actuallly in combat, and maybe 10-20,000 casulties. Most of the who-did-what-when is wild speculation and likely to remain so for the forseeable future. The basic facts are that Pakistani-supported paramilitaries and/or regular troops infiltrated the LOC and seized the Indian command posts. The Indian army eventually cut them off and regained the territory after a difficult and protracted campaign, All through it tensions were very high, with forces on full alert everywhere else, and with both sides readying nuclear forces for tactical use should the war expand out of the Karshmir theater into a full war.

 

It was a pretty traumatic event for both countries. Some big picture consequences:

- Pakistan found itself isolated, didn't get the help it expected from China, and the US played a key role in turning the screws on Pakistan to withdraw in a meeting between Clinton and the Pakistani PM.

- The Pakistan leader under which this occured is our current democratic golden boy, Sharif, who had also ordered their nuclear tests in 1998. The Kargil war was a huge black eye for Sharif, both domestically and internationally. He blamed Army Chief-of-Staff Musharraf, his own appointee of a year earlier. Three months after the war came the incident where he tried to bar Musharraf's plane from landing, and he was subsequently removed in a coup. It is popular in the US to blame the military automatically for the war, but some people including Chief/CENTCOM have said that it was Musharraf who pushed for the Pakistani withdrawl and the end to the hostilities. But there are so many contradictory claims that in today's environment an objective account of who was responsible is unlikely to come out.

- The war had two effects in India, both driven by what they believed was a unsatisfactory performance of their equipment, defensive posture, and command-and-control. The first was a strengthening of ties between India and Israel and the beginnings of a strategic alignment with the US. The second was a massive buildup of conventional forces which continues today.

 

Here are some references - I again caution you as to the iffyness of the information. I'm sure the political events are still classified by each country, and it's not like there was any press around to chronicle events on the ground.

 

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/wor...r/kargil-99.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War