Chilly Posted July 18, 2008 Posted July 18, 2008 On a Message Board? How dare you! I think I can make a very good case for the idea that some teams apply a higher premium to some positions early in the draft- The fact is that we already know, because it's been publicly acknowledged, that some of the best personnel people DISCOUNT positions like WR high in the draft because history has proven the bust rates/payoffs make other positions safer to take. So knowing that some personnel people drop the value of some positions high up in the draft, it's logical to assume there is an opposite effect on positions they deem to be lower bust/better early values. We also know that there are more dynamics that go into the decision of that first round pick, and it's possible marquee value is one as you point out. We know again for a fact from statements made by teams that they also consider things like fit in the community, and we've seen guys who were picked specifically for their signability over other players who were rated higher. That's plenty of evidence proving the falsehood of the "good teams draft the highest rated player regardelss of position" argument that Bluefire and a few others promote. So knowing that teams use means of grading a pick other than "highest rated regardless of position", knowing that some good teams reduce the value of some specific positions and seeing the equity trends among the best teams differing fairly substantially from the way the Bills and Lions have been drafting, it seems like we might want to begin to pay closer attention to the trends of those better football teams with our early picks. That was a completely 100% correct characterization of my position, lacking any falsehoods whatsoever.
AKC Posted July 18, 2008 Posted July 18, 2008 Could the Bills have done better for themselves than Lynch and Poz last year with their first 2 picks? I'm not so sure.... There's not always a clear 1st round talent at DT when we pick, like this past season. But there was a clear 1st round DT when we passed over Tommy Harris, and there was a clear first round DT when we passed over Ngata. Either player IMO would have improved this team substantially- IMO you can't seriously say that about the players we ended up favoring. I won't hold my nose and suggest Wilfork, just because he has always been a scumbag- but he is another who would have made us a better football team on the field. I like Poz a lot. LB is among the safest positions to get quality from at the top of the draft. As far as Lynch, there were other ways to address the RB spot last year, as there are every year. I think the truth is that unless you have a can't miss RB like McFadden this past draft, there are better ways to be competitive at the position. You can't really say that about DT. The days of behemeths playing at 400 pounds well into their 30s are being replaced- rapidly- with more young athletic big interior guys with the burst to take the short passing game away from the West Coast influenced offenses around the league. It's not the old guys busting through those gaps- it's younger guys with a great set of first steps.
RJ (not THAT RJ) Posted July 18, 2008 Posted July 18, 2008 There's not always a clear 1st round talent at DT when we pick, like this past season. But there was a clear 1st round DT when we passed over Tommy Harris, and there was a clear first round DT when we passed over Ngata. Either player IMO would have improved this team substantially- IMO you can't seriously say that about the players we ended up favoring. I won't hold my nose and suggest Wilfork, just because he has always been a scumbag- but he is another who would have made us a better football team on the field. I like Poz a lot. LB is among the safest positions to get quality from at the top of the draft. As far as Lynch, there were other ways to address the RB spot last year, as there are every year. I think the truth is that unless you have a can't miss RB like McFadden this past draft, there are better ways to be competitive at the position. You can't really say that about DT. The days of behemeths playing at 400 pounds well into their 30s are being replaced- rapidly- with more young athletic big interior guys with the burst to take the short passing game away from the West Coast influenced offenses around the league. It's not the old guys busting through those gaps- it's younger guys with a great set of first steps. Reading this, I come back to the notion that your entire argument, including the attempts at quantification, is just an extended riff on the simple sentence: "I wish we drafted Haloti Ngata and Tommy Harris." Not that there is anything wrong with that, but there is a big difference between wanting a particular player and trying to find a universal law where none exists. Also, for a guy who says here that you believe that the future lies with strong but not huge young tackles, you have little use for John McCargo... is that just because saying you liked him would undermine your efforts to paint the Bills as unable to address the DL?
AKC Posted July 18, 2008 Posted July 18, 2008 That was a completely 100% correct characterization of my position, lacking any falsehoods whatsoever. Yap, picking the correct positions, not players, at the appropriate rounds, is what matters in the draft. Your sarcastic remark from earlier in the string identifies your opinion that "picking the right players is what's important in the draft, not picking the right positions." I've consistently said there's plenty of evidence that both scouting grade and position are among the considerations made by the best teams before making their selection. If you don't like your original position, now might be a good time to modify it.
AKC Posted July 18, 2008 Posted July 18, 2008 you have little use for John McCargo... is that just because saying you liked him would undermine your efforts to paint the Bills as unable to address the DL? I think John McCargo is the perfect example of our team failure to recognize the power of great talent in the middle. Remember he was the excuse given for passing up on Ngata. Ngata is now featured dominating the middle of the Baltimore Raven defense while John McCargo is hoping to finally break into our starting lineup. There's not enough of the great talent in the defensive interior to go around. The best teams know it, and hence they make it a top priority. We end up passing over the best talent to take guys on the second tier, and that so far has not been a very effective strategy. It's time to start emulating the winners.
34-78-83 Posted July 18, 2008 Posted July 18, 2008 There's not always a clear 1st round talent at DT when we pick, like this past season. But there was a clear 1st round DT when we passed over Tommy Harris, and there was a clear first round DT when we passed over Ngata. Either player IMO would have improved this team substantially- IMO you can't seriously say that about the players we ended up favoring. I won't hold my nose and suggest Wilfork, just because he has always been a scumbag- but he is another who would have made us a better football team on the field. I like Poz a lot. LB is among the safest positions to get quality from at the top of the draft. As far as Lynch, there were other ways to address the RB spot last year, as there are every year. I think the truth is that unless you have a can't miss RB like McFadden this past draft, there are better ways to be competitive at the position. You can't really say that about DT. The days of behemeths playing at 400 pounds well into their 30s are being replaced- rapidly- with more young athletic big interior guys with the burst to take the short passing game away from the West Coast influenced offenses around the league. It's not the old guys busting through those gaps- it's younger guys with a great set of first steps. I am with you re: Tommy Harris. In hindsight, probably Ngata too... I don't think there was a better way to address RB last year than Lynch though. Lynch seems pretty close to a can't miss as long as he keeps his nose clean. Also, I think McCargo showed a ton of promise last year and was under-utilized for how well he was progressing once healthy. His style of play is perfect for this scheme.
RJ (not THAT RJ) Posted July 18, 2008 Posted July 18, 2008 I think John McCargo is the perfect example of our team failure to recognize the power of great talent in the middle. Remember he was the excuse given for passing up on Ngata. Ngata is now featured dominating the middle of the Baltimore Raven defense while John McCargo is hoping to finally break into our starting lineup. There's not enough of the great talent in the defensive interior to go around. The best teams know it, and hence they make it a top priority. We end up passing over the best talent to take guys on the second tier, and that so far has not been a very effective strategy. It's time to start emulating the winners. The winners, such as the juggernaut Baltimore Ravens, who were 5-11 last year and are attempting to rebuild? All snark aside, I understand the point you are trying to make, but perhaps taking into account McCargo's injury, and the possibility that his talent is emerging might lead to a different conclusion?
AKC Posted July 18, 2008 Posted July 18, 2008 The winners, such as the juggernaut Baltimore Ravens, who were 5-11 last year and are attempting to rebuild? All snark aside, I understand the point you are trying to make, but perhaps taking into account McCargo's injury, and the possibility that his talent is emerging might lead to a different conclusion? I am with you re: Tommy Harris. In hindsight, probably Ngata too... I don't think there was a better way to address RB last year than Lynch though. Lynch seems pretty close to a can't miss as long as he keeps his nose clean. Also, I think McCargo showed a ton of promise last year and was under-utilized for how well he was progressing once healthy. His style of play is perfect for this scheme. McCargo is athletic but he plays too high. Since that won't interfere with his getting into the opponent's backfield, he should end up with some pretty stats and some Sportscenter plays during the season on passing downs. But that high center of gravity will forever hamper him against the run. He just strikes me as too much of a mixed bag, and I don't want to say a DT who doesn't hold up against the run can't become dominant in the NFL, but a DT who doesn't hold up against the run can't become dominant in the NFL- IMO. The key this season is to move our opponent to passing situations early, otherwise we'll be seeing too much gasping from Stroud/Poluszny/Whitner to bode well for the team overall. I'll guess right now that the best sign that we're getting our 1st and 2nd dwon defense in order will be seeing Johnson getting lots of the 3rd down reps. If Johnson is not getting time in the "Justin Tuck" role, I have to assume it'll be because we're seeing too many 3rd and 1 or 2. Among the options at RB were to simply have retained McGahee. But outside of that, Jamal Lewis was cut by the Ravens and ended up signing with Cleveland, where he had a top 5 finish. Plus the McGahee trade wasn't the only one involving a high profile vet RB. Outside of kicker, RB seems to be the most universal position in the game these days, and among the easiest to simply "move the pieces" around. RJ- as to the Ravens- I'll guess you'd take the Ravens play and results, and by adoption their approach, through the past 8 seasons over our Bills during the same period ;-)
RJ (not THAT RJ) Posted July 18, 2008 Posted July 18, 2008 RJ- as to the Ravens- I'll guess you'd take the Ravens play and results, and by adoption their approach, through the past 8 seasons over our Bills during the same period ;-) No, I wouldn't, because I am only a Bills fan and get ill at the thought of rooting for anyone else. Without the laundry, and the connection to home, it's just millionaire genetic mutations in Halloween costumes. ;-) Fair enough on McCargo, but didn't you say earlier that you did NOT advocate big fat run-pluggers? I can't keep up....
AKC Posted July 18, 2008 Posted July 18, 2008 No, I wouldn't, because I am only a Bills fan and get ill at the thought of rooting for anyone else. Without the laundry, and the connection to home, it's just millionaire genetic mutations in Halloween costumes. ;-) Fair enough on McCargo, but didn't you say earlier that you did NOT advocate big fat run-pluggers? I can't keep up.... Nope, never said I didn't advocate big fat run stoppers. According the scheme you play in the NFL today, you might require one. What I do believe, and have made reference to it in this thread, is that to be effective against short passing games you need guys who can split the gaps when the time comes to rush the passer, which is the handicap of the big fat run stoppers. They don't have the wheels to pull it off. The key in that cae is to penetrate, not sit on your big fat heels and let the opposing QB throw without threat of you disrupting the middle lanes or hitting him in the face. And if your reference is to Haloti Ngata being a big fat run stopper, I will tell you that he is anything but. Ngata is big but has exceptional feet, and he works the line horizontally as well as he moves upfield vertically when he intends to. He is a force for the Ravens and would be for any team he played on in this league. He's an every down run stopper because he has the ability to pressure the pocket. John McCargo has yet to establish he's even a pass rusher, let along a run stopper or every down DT. God knows we'll all celebrate if he reaches half the level of play that Ngata is already bringing on Sundays.
BadDad Posted July 18, 2008 Posted July 18, 2008 I sure hope not.....I would like to see Marshawn hang around for a while. There is no doubting he is a gutsy RB. I agree, a year ago he was the second coming, now he's the next whipping boy. It's sad.
BadDad Posted July 18, 2008 Posted July 18, 2008 Ah, the irony of a guy who fled the scene of a hit and run being called "gutsy". My God man let it go! The rediculous judgemental attitude of people on this board drove me to stop posting for a number of years. The man says he didn"t see the woman, he went home parked in his driveway, the cops came and towed his car, he called his lawyer, it took a few weeks to get the facts straightened out, the D.A. had no evidence that he "fled the scene of a hit and run" ergo the citation that he received. He's a 22(3?) year old kid and he made a mistake that, according to him and all eye witnessses he didn't even realize he made. The judge has ruled, the D.A. is satisfied, why the h... can't you guys back off?
BadDad Posted July 19, 2008 Posted July 19, 2008 Thanks for your input..... I really hope that you are wrong about Lynch and that he can stay out of trouble and be with the team for a few years. Me too, AKC is a long time contributer and I respect his opinions and insite on most topics, but I sure hope he and R. Rich, (who I also respect), are off base on this kid.
Bill from NYC Posted July 19, 2008 Posted July 19, 2008 Could the Bills have done better for themselves than Lynch and Poz last year with their first 2 picks? I'm not so sure.... Why on earth would you omit Trent Edwards Bro? Didn't he look extremely good for a late 3rd rounder. Amazing what can be done when you don't waste drafts on defensive backs, while playing in Buffalo, no?
BadDad Posted July 19, 2008 Posted July 19, 2008 In order to believe the hoax that it's about "picking the right players" versus understanding where you get the most for your draft dollar at each position, you have to ignore our long term RB/WR draft priority and how different it is when compared to the DT/TE priority of most of the top teams in the league. Ignore it if you like, but there's no need attacking any of us who are paying attention. That's great since it creates no conflicts with my thing for attractive ladies my own age ;-) BTW- Is the kid ready for his 2008 season? Couln"t agree more AKC!!!
MDH Posted July 19, 2008 Posted July 19, 2008 The trend favors the "believers"- there just are no longer the "career" running backs you see opening and closing 11 or 12 year careers with the same team. Yeah, but if you want to run your football team this way (which I don't disagree with) then don't draft RBs in the first round. A franchise can't aford to keep letting their top draft picks than actually pan out go after one contract. The last 1st round pick the Bills signed to a second contract? Eric Moulds. That, my friends, is not a good track record.
BadDad Posted July 19, 2008 Posted July 19, 2008 I think John McCargo is the perfect example of our team failure to recognize the power of great talent in the middle. Remember he was the excuse given for passing up on Ngata. Ngata is now featured dominating the middle of the Baltimore Raven defense while John McCargo is hoping to finally break into our starting lineup. There's not enough of the great talent in the defensive interior to go around. The best teams know it, and hence they make it a top priority. We end up passing over the best talent to take guys on the second tier, and that so far has not been a very effective strategy. It's time to start emulating the winners. Just a question AKC but what's your opinion of M. Stroud? Will he help to solidfy the center of the DL and allow McCargo to rome free in the opposing backfield?
BadDad Posted July 19, 2008 Posted July 19, 2008 Just a question AKC but what's your opinion of M. Stroud? Will he help to solidfy the center of the DL and allow McCargo to rome free in the opposing backfield? Holy crap I misspelled roam (this is for you Steve, (Rome is a little know city in upsate New York), what's his name in D.C. will be all over this in a heartbeat!
RJ (not THAT RJ) Posted July 19, 2008 Posted July 19, 2008 Yeah, but if you want to run your football team this way (which I don't disagree with) then don't draft RBs in the first round. A franchise can't aford to keep letting their top draft picks than actually pan out go after one contract. The last 1st round pick the Bills signed to a second contract? Eric Moulds. That, my friends, is not a good track record. That last sentence sounds impressive, until one remembers the following: 1997: Antowain Smith 1998: No first round pick/Rob Johnson Trade 1999: Antoine Winfield 2000: Erik Flowers 2001: Nate Clemens 2002: Mike Williams 2003: Willis McGahee Beyond that, we are talking about people who are still on their first contract. So, since Eric Moulds, how many of those guys were still around and worth keeping by the time their first contract ended? I see two... Winfield and Clemens. Looks to me like the bigger problem was drafting bad players than drafting the wrong positions... but that's just me.
Sisyphean Bills Posted July 19, 2008 Posted July 19, 2008 How about this? "Of course, it is the players that are drafted that matter; and, obviously, certain positions have higher value than others." For example, drafting a Hall of Fame caliber QB is a good thing for a team. OTOH, just drafting a sequence of QBs that play 1-3 years and bust out is not so great. Having a franchise QB has a higher value (because they are scarce) than, say, drafting a first round DB or WR.
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