I used to think Lynch supporters were bad but then...

[R. Rich]

It's easy if you try.

 

Ah yes, John. Has it been 28 years already?

[John from Riverside]

I just want to say that I love you all in a totally no homo type of way

 

[AKC]

Yap, picking the correct positions, not players, at the appropriate rounds, is what matters in the draft.

 

In order to believe the hoax that it's about "picking the right players" versus understanding where you get the most for your draft dollar at each position, you have to ignore our long term RB/WR draft priority and how different it is when compared to the DT/TE priority of most of the top teams in the league. Ignore it if you like, but there's no need attacking any of us who are paying attention.

 

I just want to say that I love you all in a totally no homo type of way

 

That's great since it creates no conflicts with my thing for attractive ladies my own age ;-)

 

BTW- Is the kid ready for his 2008 season?

[VOR]

Ah yes, John. Has it been 28 years already?

Amazing, isn't it?

[Chilly]

In order to believe the hoax that it's about "picking the right players" versus understanding where you get the most for your draft dollar at each position, you have to ignore our long term RB/WR draft priority and how different it is when compared to the DT/TE priority of most of the top teams in the league. Ignore it if you like, but there's no need attacking any of us who are paying attention.

 

wtf? I didn't attack you, I attacked your argument.

 

And choosing the correct players is not a myth. When drafting in the NFL, the top priority is to pick someone who is going to succeed as a player. The next priority is determining where the resources should be allocated.

 

I could draft OL all day, but if they suck, it won't matter.

[AKC]

And choosing the correct players is not a myth. When drafting in the NFL, the top priority is to pick someone who is going to succeed as a player. The next priority is determining where the resources should be allocated.

 

I could draft OL all day, but if they suck, it won't matter.

 

Since I have yet to see anyone advocating making picks by position alphabetically, you’ll excuse me if I’m a little cynical when I see you insist that “it’s about drafting good players”.

 

So let me give you the benefit of the doubt and simply point out that it’s pretty obvious to anyone with any understanding of the draft that you of course need to scout well. The question about positional drafting patterns goes to another factor- what premium does position play in determining a player’s value, and what are the good teams doing that we aren't?

 

There are clear and inarguable differences between the way recent Super Bowl teams draft by position in the first two rounds versus the way the Lions and Bills have drafted. For one thing, the best teams have spent a higher percentage of that high draft equity at DT and TE, whereas the Bills and Detroit have spent higher on WR and RB.

 

So the real question is, are the Bills more like all of the fans who don’t recognize the pattern? The results show very specifically at the DT position that we’ve been missing the boat. We’ve let 3 of the most dominant DTs in the league get by us and drop to teams below us while we were buttering up our roster at WR and RB.

 

The pattern is there. You can take a look or ignore it; that’s your choice. But for anyone who would like to know why hitting .500 has become our annual goal, this seems like a pretty likely place to find some of the answers.

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

I could draft OL all day, but if they suck, it won't matter.

 

 

Amen, brother!

 

It is not a matter of drafting linemen early and somehow magically becoming a better team. I mean, each of these O or D linemen was a first-round pick for the Bills:

 

Mike Williams

Al Cowlings

Walt Patulski

Phil Dokes

 

Did drafting them lift the Bills to glory? No. And I only have to mention Tony Mandarich to symbolize the dangers that come with assuming a high draft choice will anchor your O-line forever....

 

Of course, there were some good first round linemen choices too, from Paul Seymour to Jim Ritcher to Bruce Smith... But the Bills' best O- and D-lines were not made up solely of early round draft choices either. No team's lines have ever been; they have always been a combination, of early and late choices, trades and (in more recent years) free agent signings.

 

Picking bad players is bad; picking good players is better, no matter what the position. There is no secret one-size-fits-all formula for building a winner.

[AKC]

Picking bad players is bad; picking good players is better, no matter what the position. There is no secret one-size-fits-all formula for building a winner.

 

You have the full support of the Detroit Lion and Buffalo Bills front offices.

 

Now as to the good teams in football, they actually have a plan. It includes getting young big bodies for their defensive lines early in the draft, and letting teams like the Lions and Bills get their fan bases all hot and bothered when they sign declining older DTs instead.

[BillsVet]

Donahoe was ridiculed for selecting too many skill players while ignoring the OL and DL. And even with his dismissal, the same trend is taking place once again the past 2+ years. In this instance, it's not WR's and RB's, but DB's.

 

It doesn't matter which skill positions are continually drafted, the result is always the same: offenses that can't protect the QB and defenses which are not good enough to put pressure on the QB and stop the run. That's the problem this team has had for years now.

 

Good teams draft well, and find quality lineman, whether they're early, mid, or even late round picks. Three teams in the league have not made the playoffs since the 20th century. Buffalo, Arizona, and Detroit. All of them have a tendency of using picks on players who line up away from the ball. Check the drafts of those teams.

 

Using FA repeatedly on lineman because you can't or won't find them in the draft hurts a team's cap hit. That's the price (along with missing the post-season) of selecting skill players. It's not much different than what Donahoe was doing 5 years ago.

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

You have the full support of the Detroit Lion and Buffalo Bills front offices.

 

Now as to the good teams in football, they actually have a plan. It includes getting young big bodies for their defensive lines early in the draft, and letting teams like the Lions and Bills get their fan bases all hot and bothered when they sign declining older DTs instead.

 

 

Oh come on... This is beneath you. The Bills have drafted "young big bodies" for their defensive line in the first or second round several years running, but that is not good enough for you. Why? Because you do not think the players are good. See my comment. You are entitled to your opinion, but do not pretend that there is some master plan that the Bills or Lions or anyone is missing the boat on. Every team wants good players, at every level... but getting them is a multifaceted process.

[AKC]

Oh come on... This is beneath you. The Bills have drafted "young big bodies" for their defensive line in the first or second round several years running, but that is not good enough for you. Why? Because you do not think the players are good. See my comment. You are entitled to your opinion, but do not pretend that there is some master plan that the Bills or Lions or anyone is missing the boat on. Every team wants good players, at every level... but getting them is a multifaceted process.

 

The Bills have NOT made the same commitment to big young bodies that the best team's have, and that's just the point.

 

In 2006, we went with a DB and allowed the Baltimore Ravens behind us to draft Haloti Ngata, who has already become the dominant player on their defensive line. While we were desperate for a quality DT, we passed up a dominant one and settled for Jon McCargo later in the round.

 

In 2004 we passed on Tommie Harris, who went right out to help Chicago get to the Super Bowl. A dominant gap splitting DT, the kind that makes all the difference in the game today, but instead we ended up with a WR. In need of a DT, we went on the cheap and drafted Tim Anderson in the 3rd instead of doing what winners do.

 

The Buffalo Bills have passed on the best talent at DT in the draft in favor of positions like WR and RB that the best teams don't draft at the same frequency. Thats because the best teams put a higher priority on keeping their DLines full of the best talent in football.

 

Why has NE used 3 of it's 1st round picks this decade on DTs? Let me tell you, it sure as heck isn't because they didn't have any needs at positions like WR. But they simply understand that you can get WR talent addressed by other means, but DT talent comes at the top of the draft.

 

I just wish my team would figure it out too.

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

We all want the Bills to succeed, and no man who hates Bill Belichek with such intensity can be all bad, so I will not drag this argument out any further. I do understand the point you are making, AKC, but if 2004 and 2006 are your only examples here, they show how much your argument is a matter of perspective. In 2006, one could just as easily argue that the Bills managed to get not only a very promising DT in McCargo but also a promising safety and strong leader in Donte Whitner. Two important defensive pieces in one round is not a bad thing, and McCargo was indeed a first-round pick, if one is hung up on defining players by when they were drafted.

 

In 2004, it is worth remembering that the Bills were coming off a season in which their offense had become stodgy and putrescent, and drafting a WR was widely applauded as a smart call. (We can debate the drafting of JP Losman, of course... but that is another thread!). Tim Anderson was a bust, yes, but he was also a first day pick on the DL, who came from a top program and had good ratings. Not exactly proof of ignoring the DL, or if you insist on it, it is a question of degree.

 

My point with all this is not to say that the Bills have made nothing but brilliant moves. They have made plenty of mistakes. Most of those mistakes, however, are the product less of bad draft strategy, since their selections are not that different from other teams (since 2000, the Bills have drafted a D-lineman in the first round twice, in the second round twice...) than of the natural risk involved with the draft. Some players rise to expectations, some players fail to live up to them. That's why they play the games, right?

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

The Bills have NOT made the same commitment to big young bodies that the best team's have, and that's just the point.

 

In 2006, we went with a DB and allowed the Baltimore Ravens behind us to draft Haloti Ngata, who has already become the dominant player on their defensive line. While we were desperate for a quality DT, we passed up a dominant one and settled for Jon McCargo later in the round.

 

In 2004 we passed on Tommie Harris, who went right out to help Chicago get to the Super Bowl. A dominant gap splitting DT, the kind that makes all the difference in the game today, but instead we ended up with a WR. In need of a DT, we went on the cheap and drafted Tim Anderson in the 3rd instead of doing what winners do.

 

The Buffalo Bills have passed on the best talent at DT in the draft in favor of positions like WR and RB that the best teams don't draft at the same frequency. Thats because the best teams put a higher priority on keeping their DLines full of the best talent in football.

 

Why has NE used 3 of it's 1st round picks this decade on DTs? Let me tell you, it sure as heck isn't because they didn't have any needs at positions like WR. But they simply understand that you can get WR talent addressed by other means, but DT talent comes at the top of the draft.

 

I just wish my team would figure it out too.

[Chilly]

Now as to the good teams in football, they actually have a plan. It includes getting young big bodies for their defensive lines early in the draft, and letting teams like the Lions and Bills get their fan bases all hot and bothered when they sign declining older DTs instead.

 

Lets play a game. Lets look at the playoff teams from last year, and the number of picks at DT within the first 3 rounds since 2004 (5 drafts total):

 

Pittsburgh - 0

Indianapolis - 1

Jacksonville - 0

Dallas - 0

San Diego - 0

Tampa Bay - 0

Giants - 1

Seattle - 2

Washington - 0

Green Bay - 2

Tennessee - 1

New England - 1

 

Average: .67

Buffalo: 2

 

How about D-line in total?

 

Pittsburgh - 1

Indianapolis - 1

Jacksonville - 2

Dallas - 2

San Diego - 2

Tampa Bay - 1

Giants - 4

Seattle - 4

Washington - 0

Green Bay - 2

Tennessee - 4

New England - 2

 

Average: 2.08

Buffalo: 3

 

Lets look at the TE position, since you also said that:

 

Pittsburgh - 2

Indianapolis - 1

Jacksonville - 1

Dallas - 2

San Diego - 0

Tampa Bay - 1

Giants - 0

Seattle - 1

Washington - 2

Green Bay - 1

Tennessee - 2

New England - 2

 

Average: 1.25

Buffalo: 1

 

For ***** and giggles, since everyone likes to B word about DBs, lets look at that too:

 

Pittsburgh - 3

Indianapolis - 5

Jacksonville - 1

Dallas - 2

San Diego - 5

Tampa Bay - 2

Giants - 4

Seattle - 3

Washington - 3

Green Bay - 5

Tennessee - 3

New England - 4

 

Average: 3.33

Buffalo: 3

 

Lets look at Offensive Linemen:

 

Pittsburgh - 3

Indianapolis - 2

Jacksonville - 1

Dallas - 3

San Diego - 2

Tampa Bay - 5

Giants - 1

Seattle - 2

Washington - 1

Green Bay - 2

Tennessee - 1

New England - 1

 

Average: 2

Buffalo: 0

 

Finally, lets look at Wide Receivers:

 

Pittsburgh - 2

Indianapolis - 1

Jacksonville - 3

Dallas - 0

San Diego - 2

Tampa Bay - 3

Giants - 3

Seattle - 0

Washington - 2

Green Bay - 4

Tennessee - 3

New England - 1

 

Average: 2

Buffalo: 3

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

Lets play a game. Lets look at the playoff teams from last year, and the number of picks at DT within the first 3 rounds since 2004 (5 drafts total):

 

 

Thanks so much for doing that research!

[obie_wan]

Donahoe was ridiculed for selecting too many skill players while ignoring the OL and DL. And even with his dismissal, the same trend is taking place once again the past 2+ years. In this instance, it's not WR's and RB's, but DB's.

 

It doesn't matter which skill positions are continually drafted, the result is always the same: offenses that can't protect the QB and defenses which are not good enough to put pressure on the QB and stop the run. That's the problem this team has had for years now.

 

Good teams draft well, and find quality lineman, whether they're early, mid, or even late round picks. Three teams in the league have not made the playoffs since the 20th century. Buffalo, Arizona, and Detroit. All of them have a tendency of using picks on players who line up away from the ball. Check the drafts of those teams.

 

Using FA repeatedly on lineman because you can't or won't find them in the draft hurts a team's cap hit. That's the price (along with missing the post-season) of selecting skill players. It's not much different than what Donahoe was doing 5 years ago.

 

no big surprise since the talent evaluators and brain trust (Modrack, Guy , etc) has been the constant over the last 7 years.

[obie_wan]

We all want the Bills to succeed, and no man who hates Bill Belichek with such intensity can be all bad, so I will not drag this argument out any further. I do understand the point you are making, AKC, but if 2004 and 2006 are your only examples here, they show how much your argument is a matter of perspective. In 2006, one could just as easily argue that the Bills managed to get not only a very promising DT in McCargo but also a promising safety and strong leader in Donte Whitner. Two important defensive pieces in one round is not a bad thing, and McCargo was indeed a first-round pick, if one is hung up on defining players by when they were drafted.

 

In 2004, it is worth remembering that the Bills were coming off a season in which their offense had become stodgy and putrescent, and drafting a WR was widely applauded as a smart call. (We can debate the drafting of JP Losman, of course... but that is another thread!). Tim Anderson was a bust, yes, but he was also a first day pick on the DL, who came from a top program and had good ratings. Not exactly proof of ignoring the DL, or if you insist on it, it is a question of degree.

 

My point with all this is not to say that the Bills have made nothing but brilliant moves. They have made plenty of mistakes. Most of those mistakes, however, are the product less of bad draft strategy, since their selections are not that different from other teams (since 2000, the Bills have drafted a D-lineman in the first round twice, in the second round twice...) than of the natural risk involved with the draft. Some players rise to expectations, some players fail to live up to them. That's why they play the games, right?

 

Go Bills!

 

The Bills have missed the boat big time with ragards to their OL.

 

They have spent 3 picks in the top 4 rounds over the last 10 years (44 picks).

 

The dynamic duo have spent zero picks, even though they don't have a bona fide backup at either OT on the roster and their C who has been overwhelmed at times becomes a free agent after this year and also needs a competent backup or replacement.

 

but they did draft 3 DBs and 2 WRs in 2008.

[AKC]

Lets play a game. Lets look at the playoff teams from last year, and the number of picks at DT within the first 3 rounds since 2004 (5 drafts total):

 

That's all you're doing is playing a game, and not a very enlightened one.

 

I'm talking about top of the draft Tommie Harris/Haloti Ngata talent, and you're wasting bandwidth talking about 3rd round/Tim Anderson talent. Go ahead and compare it all you want, but it won't get you any closer to understanding why the best teams in football clean our clock on the field and at the draft.

[AKC]

if 2004 and 2006 are your only examples here, they show how much your argument is a matter of perspective.

 

I'm not merely pointing out "examples", I'm pointing out absolute disasters that have left us non-competitive.

 

DT has become one of- if not the- most important position in the NFL today. Smart and successful teams continue stocking young, premium talent at their D interior, while we keep on stocking up on RBs and WRs and settling for lesser DTs in the draft and old, arguably twilight players in FA.

 

About midseason we'll see how well the "Bill's and Lion's approach" is paying off. My guess is we'll be watching those teams who've put big early draft investments in their OLine setting their playoff strategies while our highly paid WRs and RBs are making January vacation plans.

[Chilly]

That's all you're doing is playing a game, and not a very enlightened one.

 

I'm talking about top of the draft Tommie Harris/Haloti Ngata talent, and you're wasting bandwidth talking about 3rd round/Tim Anderson talent. Go ahead and compare it all you want, but it won't get you any closer to understanding why the best teams in football clean our clock on the field and at the draft.

 

Oh, alright. I didn't realize that players like, oh, Pat Williams, Darnell Dockett, Shaun Rogers, Kris Jenkins, Kelly Gregg, Jamal Williams, Cornelius Griffin, etc. didn't count. Sorry, my bad.

[AKC]

Lets look at the playoff teams from last year, and the number of picks at DT within the first 3 rounds since 2004 (5 drafts total):

 

Here's a study with detail, done prior to us ADDING to our ante at WR in the 2008 draft:

 

 

Studying the drafting trends of the way Super Bowl teams approach the Top of the Draft versus the Buffalo Bills (one of only 4 teams in the NFL to have missed the playoffs this Millennium) may offer some insight into why we’ve been one of the consistently bad teams in the league for an extended period of time.

 

Using the draft records of Super Bowl teams allows a look into how those teams have “budgeted” at specific positions at the Top of the Draft. This study does not establish whether these Positional Budgeting Trends are a conscious strategy on the part of all or any of the teams in the study, but the trends do represent contrasts between the players Super Bowl teams target at the Top of the Draft versus the positions the Buffalo Bills have been drafting.

 

The methodology used for the study follows the primary trending results.

 

A comparison of Super Bowl Draft Budgets versus the Bills looks like this:

 

Super Bowl Teams: Giants, Colts, Steelers, Pats*, Bears, Seahawks, Eagles, Panthers:

 

% of Draft Top of the Budget by Position:

 

Super Bowl Teams

 

DL 23%

DB 21%

WR 14%

OL 12%

TE 9%

RB 8%

LB 7%

QB 6%

 

Bills

 

DL 16%

DB 20%

WR 18%

OL 12%

TE 0%

RB 20%

LB 6%

QB 8%

 

A few substantial differences in tendencies:

 

Buffalo has used 59% of its draft budget in the study period for Offensive players, while the Super Bowl Team Draft Budgets favor Defensive selections more often than Offensive.

 

Buffalo has “outspent” the Super Bowl teams at RB and WR while “under spending” them at TE and DL.

 

This makes the following areas those in which Buffalo most widely bucks the Top of the Draft Trends of Super Bowl teams:

 

A) Bills have a higher Top of the Draft spend on Offense than Defense, contrary to the trend with Super Bowl teams

B) Bills have no TE selection at the top, whereas all but one Super Bowl team has spent a portion of their Top of the Draft Budget on the position.

C) Bills have spent a higher ratio of their budget on WRs versus DL, bucking the Super Bowl team trend of loading up on DL at the Top of the Draft

 

Every Super Bowl team except the Seahawks has a higher DL spend than they do at WR. The DL/WR ratio favoring the DL is common among 87.5% of the Super Bowl Teams. Buffalo is already out of balance on this trend, and a selection of a WR with the #11 pick this season would put us at a nearly 1:2 DL/WR ratio, a stark contrast to the almost 2:1 ratio favored by the Super Bowl Teams on average. (The ratio favoring DL over WRs is also a trait of recent playoff teams like the Cowboys, the Chargers and the Packers).

 

Every Super Bowl Team except the Panthers has a Top of the Draft investment in the TE position except the Carolina Panthers. The Bills have none.

 

Super Bowl teams are spending over 23%- or almost a quarter of their Top of the Draft Budget- on DL, while the Bills have committed less than 16%.

 

 

In order to compile usable information for the study, the following reasonable stipulations were adopted in order to establish a study group and time window:

1) Top of the Draft- This is represented by the first two rounds. The players selected in these two rounds represent the prospects that NFL teams have concluded are the best talent entering the league from college each season.

2) Draft Budgeting- To establish a position by position numerical score for each team, the study uses the sum of the specific draft choices in which each team selected players at each position during those first two rounds. In order to end up with a highest to lowest sum, the selections were counted inversely. Since there are 32 team picks in each round each of the first 64 picks is assigned the inverse of its position, with draft pick #1 being given a numerical score of 64 points, draft pick #2 counting for 63, etc.

3) Compensatory picks- Compensatory picks following the 64th pick of the draft were counted as 1 point in each case.

4) In establishing a window to study successful draft budgeting, the average number of years first round draft picks average playing for their original team (6-7) was used. The past 7 drafts were those considered.

5) “Super Bowl Teams” will be NFL teams who have won their Conference Championships over the past 5 seasons. This allows the Super Bowl rosters to have two mature draft classes entering the study and limits teams declining from bad contemporary drafting over the study window like the Super Bowl Raiders following the 2002 NFL Season.

6) Positions- Positions are defined by: DL, DB, WR, OL, TE, RB, LB and QB.

7) Percentages- Percentages are carried to the closest whole number.