Would everyone who would like to see Trent Edwards

[Bill from NYC]

I sense "statistics lie" and "JP is an idiot" posts coming.

 

JP had a great season, is feared around the league and teams are beating down the door to trade for him. There, do you feel better to have more company in your make believe world?

[Sisyphean Bills]

JP had a great season, is feared around the league and teams are beating down the door to trade for him. There, do you feel better to have more company in your make believe world?

What are you talking about, my make believe world? I never said he had a great season or other teams were willing to trade anything of value for a 1-year contract on a guy with a lot to prove and improve. You have me confused with someone else.

[Flbillsfan#1]

More of the same. See what I mean? I'm a JP hater? Thanks for proving the point so convincingly.

 

My critique of JP's play is based on many factors. The LEAST of which is what I watch in REAL time on Sunday afternoons. And it is shared with and helped shaped by those who have forgotten more NFL football than you or I will ever learn (not that it's that complicated to begin with). Where were all your objections to my posts in JP's rookie year? How about in '05 and '06? Was I a hater then as well? Or just someone who had legitimate questions about his abiliity? Do you have the same level of condemnation for the NFL scouts who, like me, were enamored with his physical gifts but questioned other elements of his game? We were all haters back then?

 

Nope. You're just bitter about how he was handled last year and it pisses you off. That's fine. But it has clouded YOUR objectivity. My posts aren't anything new. Your reaction to them is.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Yes you're a hater & I still haven't seen a post that HOPED Trent would fail.

[K-9]

Yes you're a hater & I still haven't seen a post that HOPED Trent would fail.

 

When did my JP hatred begin? Could it have been around the same time management pissed you off by benching him? Try being objective for once. It may help your credibility.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Lt. Dan's Revenge]

There's a difference between "Want" him to fail... and "Think" he will fail...

 

I don't Want anyone on the team to fail... but I personally think he will...

 

He will more than likely fail to live up to whatever sick and wrong expectations are put on him by some fans.

 

Buffalo Bills fans expect every QB to live up to a very MYTHICAL expectation to be as good/great as the great Jim Kelly...

 

I remember the "Jim Kelly Era"... Jim Kelly didn't live up to the expectations fans placed on him... as time goes on, the legend grows as people who only heard or recall the best times forget all the other things - playing poorly while injured but refusing to leave due to the fear of the growing love for Frank Reich. The fact that despite being a good QB, he was unable to win a Superbowl.

 

If we don't stop holding our QBs up to this mythical standard, we'll continually burn out players and churn through QBs as fast as we do Head Coaches.

 

I've said it many times... JP got a raw deal - and for that some fans feel bad for him. No, he wasn't the second coming of Jack Kemp or Jim Kelly... But, he wasn't Todd Collins or RJ either... He lost his job due to injury - and when he got it back, it was "temporary" because every week the coaches refused to say he was the starter for good.

 

I don't know about most of you, but if you were replaced with a trainee at your job and made to stand around and watch him struggle at times but be told that you probably would lose your job to him, how would you feel? Betrayed? Hurt? A little angry?

 

Trent Edwards is not going to throw for 5,000 yards, 50 TDs and have no Picks... Hell, I bet he won't throw for 3,500 yards, 30 TDs and only 10 picks. So, will that be "success"? The team isn't going to win 19 games next season... The team is probably not going to win 12 games next year, so is that "success"?

 

I don't want the boy to fail... I just know that he will fail to meet the ridiculous expectations fans place on him.

 

Both sides of the debate are going to place high expectations on him, his backers, because they think he can do it and JP cannot... his detractors because they know he can't and therefore it will be easy to denounce him as NOT the solution - which to them would prove JP should have been given the chance.

 

Since I'm powerless to make the decisions at One Bills Drive... I choose to support their decision, and hope that it works out for the team.

 

You're exactly right. These have always been my feelings. Do I support Edwards and think he will have a good season? Yes. Have I always been a big JP guy and think he got a completely raw deal with little chance to succeed? Yes. Lets just hope this ends up working out for the best for the entire team's sake.

[Kelly the Dog]

Then why did Edwards beat him out? Was it not due to superior play? The stat that you (and the fanboys) omit is W/L. Losman tends to lose games in which he plays. He lost his job to a rookie and a post surgery journeyman. All the irrelevant stats in the world won't change this.

The irrelevant stats that disprove your arguments that he's a terribly inaccurate passer?

 

There were a series of events that happened that led to the decision that Edwards would be named the starter going into 2008. To me, it makes sense. Here is what I believe happened. Notice that in my evaluations of both Edwards and Losman, I point out good and bad elements of both. You rarely if ever do.

 

This is my interpretation of why Edwards is the starter. Some is fact, some is opinion that few if any would refute, some is insider knowledge and some is per conjecture on my part. The real fact is that none of us know for sure exactly what happened. This is my best guess. You and others here can debate whether you think it's true or possible or bullschit.

 

1. High expectations were held that Losman would realize his potential coming off a pretty darn good year in 2006 all things considered. Good stats. In the playoff hunt. Very little help from the line, no run game, no TE, one reliable WR, terrible coaching and an excruciating schedule. Yet, once they changed the line and took off the handcuffs he did well.

 

2. Immediately he did not do well. He played bad in game one. The entire team played bad. For no reason, after the very first series where he rolled out and they had some innovative plays and they went right down the field, Fairchild cut it off. My opinion is because they never relinquished the lead, however small, they played super conservative the entire game and they never let him do what he does well (They rarely did the entire year). But the fact was, simultaneously, he had a bad game.

 

3. EVERYTHING would have been forgotten had he hit Evans on the long ball. We would very likely have won the game (He probably would still be the starter, but that's highly debatable). IMO, it was a good call, he had time, he had the look and the receiver and he simply missed the pass. That was completely on him. He blew it and we needed him to make that pass. He makes that pass to a wide open receiver 85-90% of the time and he just flat missed him.

 

4. He didn't play well against Pittsburgh either but got zero help against a very good team. I don't blame the game on him but he didn't play well. No one played well.

 

5. He got hurt on a freak and cheap play and it cost him several games.

 

6. Trent Edwards, in those games, looked pretty good. IMO, he looked very good for a rookie put in that situation. But that doesn't mean he lit up the scoreboard or did a lot of things people attributed to him.

 

7. Ralph Wilson, as is his wont and history, did a couple crucial things. One, he got enamored with Edwards right off the bat. He's been fuming for years about the Pats and what they did with Brady. He thinks he has his Brady, and at this point, he very well may have. Edwards looks very Brady-esque in his short time. Two, Ralph has a connundrum. He has to pay Losman 3-5 million in bonuses if JP takes 80% of the snaps. He knows Losman will be looking for a huge extension. He figures if I have Brady, and if Losman hasn't played well this year, I'm not paying him. He lays down the edict and JP isn't allowed to play when he is healthy.

 

8. Edwards doesn't turn out to be Brady in the next couple games, he plays more like Kelly Holcomb. He's not bad and he's still a rookie and shows a ton of potential.

 

9. Edwards gets hurt and JP must play. The Bills win a couple games. The coaches didn't have to make the tough decision. Edwards is recovering. Ralphie saves his 3-5 million because JP cannot earn the bonuses anymore and it's now becoming a debate behind the scenes as to whether they will sign him to a big extension. They don't want him as a lame duck next year and they now have this Edwards guy they are not sure of.

 

10. Losman has a bad game or two (I blame at least half on him and half on the little help and the coaching). JP is having a bad year although again, IMO, not allowed to do what he does well. Edwards is now healthy, but Losman is still the starter and they can't bench him so they give him a make or break game. Pretty much everyone knows that the Jax game will decide who starts the next week.

 

This has been predicated on two things simultaneously, play and money. JP has one more year left on his contract. If he doesn't play well against Jax and our playoff hopes are getting slim, we're not going to want to sign him to a huge extension. And we still may have Brady here. Why would we?

 

11. JP doesn't have a good game, he gets no help, he's put in a hard spot on the road against the team that plays in the championship game but the fact is, he didn't rise above his teammates, he sank to their depths. He needed to have a good game or somehow pull it out and he didn't. He had his chance, like in the Denver game, and he didn't come through.

 

12. Again, the coaches don't have to make the hard decision. The team is a longshot for the playoffs even though they still are mathematically in it. Ralph is not, for good reason, going to give Losman the extension the player and agent want, and we still may have Brady anyway, even though it's looking less likely.

 

13. Edwards starts and is not Brady. The team struggles although they are put in two horrendous weather games, and it's hard to blame Edwards, even though the other two veteran QBs managed to make some plays. He's still a rookie and he doesn't get any more help from his teammates or coaches than Losman did.

 

14. The season ends. There is no way they go into next year with an open camp battle because if Losman wins, which is at least 50-50 because he has a huge advantage over Edwards in experience, they not only have a QB controversy but a lame duck starter who is still unhappy with how he was treated. It COULD work, but the better play is to just announce that Edwards is starting and eliminate the controversy and hope he builds on his potential. He played better than most rookies.

 

That's what I think happened and why Edwards was named the starter.

[Gordio]

The irrelevant stats that disprove your arguments that he's a terribly inaccurate passer?

 

There were a series of events that happened that led to the decision that Edwards would be named the starter going into 2008. To me, it makes sense. Here is what I believe happened. Notice that in my evaluations of both Edwards and Losman, I point out good and bad elements of both. You rarely if ever do.

 

This is my interpretation of why Edwards is the starter. Some is fact, some is opinion that few if any would refute, some is insider knowledge and some is per conjecture on my part. The real fact is that none of us know for sure exactly what happened. This is my best guess. You and others here can debate whether you think it's true or possible or bullschit.

 

1. High expectations were held that Losman would realize his potential coming off a pretty darn good year in 2006 all things considered. Good stats. In the playoff hunt. Very little help from the line, no run game, no TE, one reliable WR, terrible coaching and an excruciating schedule. Yet, once they changed the line and took off the handcuffs he did well.

 

2. Immediately he did not do well. He played bad in game one. The entire team played bad. For no reason, after the very first series where he rolled out and they had some innovative plays and they went right down the field, Fairchild cut it off. My opinion is because they never relinquished the lead, however small, they played super conservative the entire game and they never let him do what he does well (They rarely did the entire year). But the fact was, simultaneously, he had a bad game.

 

3. EVERYTHING would have been forgotten had he hit Evans on the long ball. We would very likely have won the game (He probably would still be the starter, but that's highly debatable). IMO, it was a good call, he had time, he had the look and the receiver and he simply missed the pass. That was completely on him. He blew it and we needed him to make that pass. He makes that pass to a wide open receiver 85-90% of the time and he just flat missed him.

 

4. He didn't play well against Pittsburgh either but got zero help against a very good team. I don't blame the game on him but he didn't play well. No one played well.

 

5. He got hurt on a freak and cheap play and it cost him several games.

 

6. Trent Edwards, in those games, looked pretty good. IMO, he looked very good for a rookie put in that situation. But that doesn't mean he lit up the scoreboard or did a lot of things people attributed to him.

 

7. Ralph Wilson, as is his wont and history, did a couple crucial things. One, he got enamored with Edwards right off the bat. He's been fuming for years about the Pats and what they did with Brady. He thinks he has his Brady, and at this point, he very well may have. Edwards looks very Brady-esque in his short time. Two, Ralph has a connundrum. He has to pay Losman 3-5 million in bonuses if JP takes 80% of the snaps. He knows Losman will be looking for a huge extension. He figures if I have Brady, and if Losman hasn't played well this year, I'm not paying him. He lays down the edict and JP isn't allowed to play when he is healthy.

 

8. Edwards doesn't turn out to be Brady in the next couple games, he plays more like Kelly Holcomb. He's not bad and he's still a rookie and shows a ton of potential.

 

9. Edwards gets hurt and JP must play. The Bills win a couple games. The coaches didn't have to make the tough decision. Edwards is recovering. Ralphie saves his 3-5 million because JP cannot earn the bonuses anymore and it's now becoming a debate behind the scenes as to whether they will sign him to a big extension. They don't want him as a lame duck next year and they now have this Edwards guy they are not sure of.

 

10. Losman has a bad game or two (I blame at least half on him and half on the little help and the coaching). JP is having a bad year although again, IMO, not allowed to do what he does well. Edwards is now healthy, but Losman is still the starter and they can't bench him so they give him a make or break game. Pretty much everyone knows that the Jax game will decide who starts the next week.

 

This has been predicated on two things simultaneously, play and money. JP has one more year left on his contract. If he doesn't play well against Jax and our playoff hopes are getting slim, we're not going to want to sign him to a huge extension. And we still may have Brady here. Why would we?

 

11. JP doesn't have a good game, he gets no help, he's put in a hard spot on the road against the team that plays in the championship game but the fact is, he didn't rise above his teammates, he sank to their depths. He needed to have a good game or somehow pull it out and he didn't. He had his chance, like in the Denver game, and he didn't come through.

 

12. Again, the coaches don't have to make the hard decision. The team is a longshot for the playoffs even though they still are mathematically in it. Ralph is not, for good reason, going to give Losman the extension the player and agent want, and we still may have Brady anyway, even though it's looking less likely.

 

13. Edwards starts and is not Brady. The team struggles although they are put in two horrendous weather games, and it's hard to blame Edwards, even though the other two veteran QBs managed to make some plays. He's still a rookie and he doesn't get any more help from his teammates or coaches than Losman did.

 

14. The season ends. There is no way they go into next year with an open camp battle because if Losman wins, which is at least 50-50 because he has a huge advantage over Edwards in experience, they not only have a QB controversy but a lame duck starter who is still unhappy with how he was treated. It COULD work, but the better play is to just announce that Edwards is starting and eliminate the controversy and hope he builds on his potential. He played better than most rookies.

 

That's what I think happened and why Edwards was named the starter.

 

It is a good theory & you lay out your arguements as usual very well. But... this is what I think.

 

I think towards the end of the 06' campaign somewhere along the lines, the coaches came to the conclusion that they are never going to win with Losman leading the ship. Whether, it was the botching of the play clock on the last drive against tenn or whatever, somewhere along the line the coaches lost confidence in JP that they showed in him halfway thru the season. I do not think this arguable given the ultra conservative game plan they laidout for him to open the 07 season. Fast forward to the draft. I do think they had their sights set on drafting a QB with a first day pick. When Edwards fell in their lap in the 3rd round, their was much rejoicing at 1 bills drive & they did not hesitate to pull the trigger. It was very interesting listening to Modrak comment on the Edwards pick later that day saying they were very nervous when their pick was coming up, thinking that some team was going to jump them & pick Edwards. Those comments right there do not make it sound like they were ever enamored with Losman's ability & have already turned the page on him. The bottom line is if they ever believed Losman was their guy, noway were they sweating because they thought someone was going to pick edwards ahead of them. If they really believed in Losman they would of taken someone else with the 3rd rnd pick imo.

 

Fast forward to training. Now I must say, I only went to 3 training camp practices, but the practices I did go to Edwards outplayed JP. He looked better. Maybe those were the only 3 practices he looked better but I doubt it. It was disturbing for me to watch Losman struggle to even complete the simplest of passes & make the right reads & have this 3rd round rookie come in & watch the offense look alot more smoother. I think after the preseason games, where Losman continued to struggle, the coaches all but made up their mind before the season even started that the first opportunity they get they are going to get Edwards some playing time. It probably came sooner then expected but such is life in the NFL.

 

I highly doubt, even if Edwards struggles, they are going to go back to JP. The coaches just do not believe in him imo. They are going to stick with Edwards because he is their guy, he is the guy they choose to lead them. They have no affiliation to JP & my guess is they have seen this guy make enough boneheaded plays in not only the games but in practice to ever want to see him with the ball in his hands with the game on the line.

[Kelly the Dog]

It is a good theory & you lay out your arguements as usual very well. But... this is what I think.

 

I think towards the end of the 06' campaign somewhere along the lines, the coaches came to the conclusion that they are never going to win with Losman leading the ship. Whether, it was the botching of the play clock on the last drive against tenn or whatever, somewhere along the line the coaches lost confidence in JP that they showed in him halfway thru the season. I do not think this arguable given the ultra conservative game plan they laidout for him to open the 07 season. Fast forward to the draft. I do think they had their sights set on drafting a QB with a first day pick. When Edwards fell in their lap in the 3rd round, their was much rejoicing at 1 bills drive & they did not hesitate to pull the trigger. It was very interesting listening to Modrak comment on the Edwards pick later that day saying they were very nervous when their pick was coming up, thinking that some team was going to jump them & pick Edwards. Those comments right there do not make it sound like they were ever enamored with Losman's ability & have already turned the page on him. The bottom line is if they ever believed Losman was their guy, noway were they sweating because they thought someone was going to pick edwards ahead of them. If they really believed in Losman they would of taken someone else with the 3rd rnd pick imo.

 

Fast forward to training. Now I must say, I only went to 3 training camp practices, but the practices I did go to Edwards outplayed JP. He looked better. Maybe those were the only 3 practices he looked better but I doubt it. It was disturbing for me to watch Losman struggle to even complete the simplest of passes & make the right reads & have this 3rd round rookie come in & watch the offense look alot more smoother. I think after the preseason games, where Losman continued to struggle, the coaches all but made up their mind before the season even started that the first opportunity they get they are going to get Edwards some playing time. It probably came sooner then expected but such is life in the NFL.

 

I highly doubt, even if Edwards struggles, they are going to go back to JP. The coaches just do not believe in him imo. They are going to stick with Edwards because he is their guy, he is the guy they choose to lead them. They have no affiliation to JP & my guess is they have seen this guy make enough boneheaded plays in not only the games but in practice to ever want to see him with the ball in his hands with the game on the line.

1. The QB is INARGUABLY the most important position in the NFL despite what AKC says. It's the most important single position in all of team sports. If they knew going in that Losman was not their guy, there is no chance in hell that they sit back and wait throughout round three to pick a player they knew wasn't supposed to be there at the end of round three. That defies logic. They may well have been enamored with Edwards as a draft pick, I'm sure they were, but if your team doesn't have ANY quarterback, as you are surmising, who the hell waits around to the end of round three for a player they expect other teams to choose ahead of them. And if it wasn't Edwards but any QB, that's even more stupid and illogical.

 

2. If what you were saying is true, why wouldn't Edwards start as soon as he recovered? They know Losman isn't their guy and he stinks, they know Edwards is their guy and he is good, but they play Losman for 2-3 full games anyway?

[Gordio]

1. The QB is INARGUABLY the most important position in the NFL despite what AKC says. It's the most important single position in all of team sports. If they knew going in that Losman was not their guy, there is no chance in hell that they sit back and wait throughout round three to pick a player they knew wasn't supposed to be there at the end of round three. That defies logic. They may well have been enamored with Edwards as a draft pick, I'm sure they were, but if your team doesn't have ANY quarterback, as you are surmising, who the hell waits around to the end of round three for a player they expect other teams to choose ahead of them. And if it wasn't Edwards but any QB, that's even more stupid and illogical.

 

2. If what you were saying is true, why wouldn't Edwards start as soon as he recovered? They know Losman isn't their guy and he stinks, they know Edwards is their guy and he is good, but they play Losman for 2-3 full games anyway?

 

It does defy some logic that they would not pull the trigger on Edwards earlier, but my guess is maybe they were just good poker players that day. They gambled Edwards would still be around in the 3rd round, they loved Poz in trading up the 2nd & as luck would have it they got both their guys. I think I read somewhere where the only qb they had rated ahead of Edwards was Russell. Once Miami & philly took Beck & Kolb, maybe they decided this guy just maybe around with our 3rd rnd pick & let's roll dice & see if he is there, if not they could address the qb situation the following year.

 

Point #2 is an interesting point but you have to remember that Losman came in against the Jets, threw the td to evans to win the game, played probably his best game as a BIll the following week against Cincy & somehow found a way to win against Miami even though the whole offense was pretty miserable that day. A week later(Edwards is still on the shelf) they get destroyed by NE. Losman had a horrible game but I think it is pretty safe to say so did the rest of the team also. If he pulled losman at that point, it would look like he was blaming him for the NE loss, which probably my guess is would not sit well in the lockerroom. Nah, DJ is a better politician then that. He was going to give Losman every opportunity to play himself right out of the lineup against Jacksonville with his poor play which is exactly what Losman did.

[K-9]

...7. Ralph Wilson, as is his wont and history, did a couple crucial things. One, he got enamored with Edwards right off the bat. He's been fuming for years about the Pats and what they did with Brady. He thinks he has his Brady, and at this point, he very well may have. Edwards looks very Brady-esque in his short time. Two, Ralph has a connundrum. He has to pay Losman 3-5 million in bonuses if JP takes 80% of the snaps. He knows Losman will be looking for a huge extension. He figures if I have Brady, and if Losman hasn't played well this year, I'm not paying him. He lays down the edict and JP isn't allowed to play when he is healthy....

 

Very well thought out post as usual, Kelly. However, this idea that Ralph deliberately denied the bonus is hard for me to grasp from a mathematical point of view. And I say that with the full appreciation of your previous pm concerning the situation.

 

Here's why it doesn't make sense to me:

 

JP played the full first two games (Denver, Pitt).

 

We all know he got hurt and missed NE, NYJ, Dallas, Ravens, and (most of) NYJ again.

 

OK, that's 5 games missed, total (again, discounting the 4th quarter of the second Jets game).

 

When Trent goes down there are STILL 9 games left to play, which, when added to the 2 he already played, give JP the potential to play 11 out of 16 games. That's well over the 80% of the snaps needed to qualify for the bonus.

 

We all know JP started the next four games (Cincy, Miami, NE, Jax). The team struggled against Miami, flat-out sucked against NE, and got outclassed in Jax. I'm not putting it solely on JP, not by a long shot. It just made it easier for the coaches to go back to Trent at that point. And they did.

 

But what if we had managed to play well against NE and Jax? Would the coaches have made the switch anyway? I doubt that strongly. Juaron would have stayed with him. That's always been his M.O., stay with the hot hand, keep the continuity, etc. Had JP played well enough he would have been the starter the rest of the year. Otherwise, if Ralph really issued the edict to deny JP the opportunity, the coaches would have started Edwards in the Jax game. Is it realistic to think that had JP played lights out they would have sat him with 5 games to play? Jeopordized the playoffs and the added revenue gained there to save 3.5mil?

 

The bonus incentives are considered easily attainable and the team budgets for them and are glad to pay them. When JP signed his deal it was with the hope that he WOULD attain it. It would have meant he had panned out as a 1st rd pick who had solidified his position. It strains credibility to think that after '06 the fix was in for JP to be denied the opportunity to attain this bonus.

 

The fact remains (for whatever reasons debated endlessly around here) that JP didn't solidify the position through his PLAY. He had the potential to play 11 out of the 16 games. It's a damn shame he didn't get it done on the field when given the opportunity. And all his teammates should apologize for their part in it.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Kelly the Dog]

It does defy some logic that they would not pull the trigger on Edwards earlier, but my guess is maybe they were just good poker players that day. They gambled Edwards would still be around in the 3rd round, they loved Poz in trading up the 2nd & as luck would have it they got both their guys. I think I read somewhere where the only qb they had rated ahead of Edwards was Russell. Once Miami & philly took Beck & Kolb, maybe they decided this guy just maybe around with our 3rd rnd pick & let's roll dice & see if he is there, if not they could address the qb situation the following year.

Marv Levy, the day after the draft.

"We went into the draft with the idea that somewhere, maybe very late in the draft, that there would be a quarterback in the draft that we liked," said Levy. "We hoped one would be there at that time. We never even thought that Trent Edwards would be there beyond the early second round. We had to take him. It was compelling."

[Ramius]

Very well thought out post as usual, Kelly. However, this idea that Ralph deliberately denied the bonus is hard for me to grasp from a mathematical point of view. And I say that with the full appreciation of your previous pm concerning the situation.

 

Here's why it doesn't make sense to me:

 

JP played the full first two games (Denver, Pitt).

 

We all know he got hurt and missed NE, NYJ, Dallas, Ravens, and (most of) NYJ again.

 

OK, that's 5 games missed, total (again, discounting the 4th quarter of the second Jets game).

 

When Trent goes down there are STILL 9 games left to play, which, when added to the 2 he already played, give JP the potential to play 11 out of 16 games. That's well over the 80% of the snaps needed to qualify for the bonus.

 

We all know JP started the next four games (Cincy, Miami, NE, Jax). The team struggled against Miami, flat-out sucked against NE, and got outclassed in Jax. I'm not putting it solely on JP, not by a long shot. It just made it easier for the coaches to go back to Trent at that point. And they did.

 

But what if we had managed to play well against NE and Jax? Would the coaches have made the switch anyway? I doubt that strongly. Juaron would have stayed with him. That's always been his M.O., stay with the hot hand, keep the continuity, etc. Had JP played well enough he would have been the starter the rest of the year. Otherwise, if Ralph really issued the edict to deny JP the opportunity, the coaches would have started Edwards in the Jax game. Is it realistic to think that had JP played lights out they would have sat him with 5 games to play? Jeopordized the playoffs and the added revenue gained there to save 3.5mil?

 

The bonus incentives are considered easily attainable and the team budgets for them and are glad to pay them. When JP signed his deal it was with the hope that he WOULD attain it. It would have meant he had panned out as a 1st rd pick who had solidified his position. It strains credibility to think that after '06 the fix was in for JP to be denied the opportunity to attain this bonus.

 

The fact remains (for whatever reasons debated endlessly around here) that JP didn't solidify the position through his PLAY. He had the potential to play 11 out of the 16 games. It's a damn shame he didn't get it done on the field when given the opportunity. And all his teammates should apologize for their part in it.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Umm, 11/16 = 69% and 69% < 80%

[K-9]

Umm, 11/16 = 69% and 69% < 80%

 

Ouch! That's gonna leave a mark. My apologies to the board for fudging the numbers. But my larger point remains.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Kelly the Dog]

Very well thought out post as usual, Kelly. However, this idea that Ralph deliberately denied the bonus is hard for me to grasp from a mathematical point of view. And I say that with the full appreciation of your previous pm concerning the situation.

 

Here's why it doesn't make sense to me:

 

JP played the full first two games (Denver, Pitt).

 

We all know he got hurt and missed NE, NYJ, Dallas, Ravens, and (most of) NYJ again.

 

OK, that's 5 games missed, total (again, discounting the 4th quarter of the second Jets game).

 

When Trent goes down there are STILL 9 games left to play, which, when added to the 2 he already played, give JP the potential to play 11 out of 16 games. That's well over the 80% of the snaps needed to qualify for the bonus.

 

We all know JP started the next four games (Cincy, Miami, NE, Jax). The team struggled against Miami, flat-out sucked against NE, and got outclassed in Jax. I'm not putting it solely on JP, not by a long shot. It just made it easier for the coaches to go back to Trent at that point. And they did.

 

But what if we had managed to play well against NE and Jax? Would the coaches have made the switch anyway? I doubt that strongly. Juaron would have stayed with him. That's always been his M.O., stay with the hot hand, keep the continuity, etc. Had JP played well enough he would have been the starter the rest of the year. Otherwise, if Ralph really issued the edict to deny JP the opportunity, the coaches would have started Edwards in the Jax game. Is it realistic to think that had JP played lights out they would have sat him with 5 games to play? Jeopordized the playoffs and the added revenue gained there to save 3.5mil?

 

The bonus incentives are considered easily attainable and the team budgets for them and are glad to pay them. When JP signed his deal it was with the hope that he WOULD attain it. It would have meant he had panned out as a 1st rd pick who had solidified his position. It strains credibility to think that after '06 the fix was in for JP to be denied the opportunity to attain this bonus.

 

The fact remains (for whatever reasons debated endlessly around here) that JP didn't solidify the position through his PLAY. He had the potential to play 11 out of the 16 games. It's a damn shame he didn't get it done on the field when given the opportunity. And all his teammates should apologize for their part in it.

 

GO BILLS!!!

I know the Ralph decision is what happened, from persons close to the situation. What I think happened as far as the timing goes, was that Ralph's decision was made after two games and perhaps three. Either right before or right after the Dallas game. I'm not sure whether Losman was healthy enough for the Cowboys game or not but I believe he was. So he would have missed NE and the Jets by injury, and then Dallas, the Ravens and the second Jets game by edict. Once he had missed his fourth game, the Ravens, there was no chance of getting the 80%. He was put in by injury to Edwards, in the Jets game. But the Ralph decision covered Dallas, the Ravens and the Jets as far as starting QB. After the Ravens game it didn't matter as far as the bonus went.

[K-9]

I know the Ralph decision is what happened, from persons close to the situation. What I think happened as far as the timing goes, was that Ralph's decision was made after two games and perhaps three. Either right before or right after the Dallas game. I'm not sure whether Losman was healthy enough for the Cowboys game or not but I believe he was. So he would have missed NE and the Jets by injury, and then Dallas, the Ravens and the second Jets game by edict. Once he had missed his fourth game, the Ravens, there was no chance of getting the 80%. He was put in by injury to Edwards, in the Jets game. But the Ralph decision covered Dallas, the Ravens and the Jets as far as starting QB. After the Ravens game it didn't matter as far as the bonus went.

 

I stand corrected, as Ramius pointed out. And like I said, I respect your inside knowledge of the situation.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Ramius]

Ouch! That's gonna leave a mark. My apologies to the board for fudging the numbers. But my larger point remains.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

No problems. The point kelly was making however, was that when losman was healthy, after the bye, he still could have earned the bonus. Missing NE, NYJ, and Dal would have still allowed him to make the 80% threshold. Now, the bonus wasnt the only reason Losman stayed on the bench when he was healthy, but it was a big one.

 

To me, i can see the coaches being on the fence (big surprise) about who to start against Balt. Edwards had played decent, but Losman was healthy and you arent supposed to lose your job to injury. But in a toss up situation, ralph is going to step in and meddle around, and in this case, the money made it an easy decision for him to demand to jauron that Edwards start.

[Gordio]

Marv Levy, the day after the draft.

 

 

He was just giving the company line. What was he supposed to say "we pounced on Edwards because we think Losman stinks & will not be with us once his original contract is up"

[Ramius]

He was just giving the company line. What was he supposed to say "we pounced on Edwards because we think Losman stinks & will not be with us once his original contract is up"

 

Again, i dont know why this is so tough for you to understand. If the Bills already knew that Losman wasnt their guy, they would have either brought in a vet during the offseason, or drafted a QB earlier. If they liked Edwards that much, they would have drafted him in round 2, instead of hoping he falls to them at the end of round 3.

 

If you need a new QB, you dont hope that a QB who is projected to go in round 2 falls to the end of round 3. At that point it became a relatively simple decision of Edwards being far and away the BPA.

[JasoninMT]

Don't forget that in the '07 draft, they'd traded Holcolm... we had no second QB... so, there was going to be a QB drafted for sure. That doesn't necessarilly imply they were planning on replacing Losman at that point.

 

I agree with most of Kelly's points.

 

I don't think anyone on the Bills staff intentionally tanked Losman's career, because they would be tanking their own as well. I do think Fairchild was in over his head - and will be as a HC too... but that isn't our problem anymore. This day in age, to not put an audible package in, is extremely foolhardy at best. That isn't setting up your offense to succeed when you don't give them the chance to change a play at the line based on the defensive set.

 

...

 

OK, so you have 9 in the box, but we're going to run it anyways, since we can't change the play.

 

And when they have dime coverage, I guess we'll have to stick w/ the playcall.

 

Heck, My son's 7th/8th grade Pee-wee team calls audibles...

 

It couldn't have been hard for a defense to figure out they weren't able to audible - since usually you can tell when the offense is changing the play... so, they could do whatever they wanted, and audible themselves based on our formation...

 

To me, that isn't giving your offense the best possibility for success.

 

Perhaps, they were afraid Losman would audible too much, but that can be dealt with on the sideline...

[Gordio]

I know the Ralph decision is what happened, from persons close to the situation. What I think happened as far as the timing goes, was that Ralph's decision was made after two games and perhaps three. Either right before or right after the Dallas game. I'm not sure whether Losman was healthy enough for the Cowboys game or not but I believe he was. So he would have missed NE and the Jets by injury, and then Dallas, the Ravens and the second Jets game by edict. Once he had missed his fourth game, the Ravens, there was no chance of getting the 80%. He was put in by injury to Edwards, in the Jets game. But the Ralph decision covered Dallas, the Ravens and the Jets as far as starting QB. After the Ravens game it didn't matter as far as the bonus went.

 

 

Well, like i said my opinion was just based on theory. I have no insider information, & the benching of Losman the first time probably did have to due with the bonus. It is truly sad if that is what it was totally about. The benching of him the 2nd time though I have to believe was due to his on the field performance & the lack of faith the coaching staff had in him.