Scouts Inc. Fantasy O-Line rankings

[Hazed and Amuzed]

Which teams did Hardy/Indiana play that finished top 25? Let's start there.

 

 

Penn State - #25

Wisc. #21

Illinios #18

 

I thought it was 4 teams but that was my mistake.

[ax4782]

Which teams did Hardy/Indiana play that finished top 25? Let's start there.

 

First, it isn't only about who FINISHED top-25. Teams start and finish differently. The question is how did he do against teams that were ranked when he played them. However to answer your question, he played Penn State, Wisconsin and Illinois. However, when Indiana played Purdue, they were ranked at the time and were top 35 to finish the season. So, I hope that answers your question. And the fact is that Hardy had one of his best career games against Penn State. He was average against Wisconsin and Illinois, and was excellent against Purdue. Again see the stats above for the Purdue and Penn State games. As for Wisconsin and Illinois, those stats are listed below. That being said, the Big-Ten is one of the best football conferences in the NCAA, second only to, maybe, the SEC, and that depends who you talk to. None of the teams in the conference utterly suck. Even Northwestern can stay in games against good teams. So to say that he didn't play anyone in that conference demonstrates that you don't pay much attention to college football, or at least not to the Big 10. And, while you can argue in the opposite, putting up 36 TDs in 33 games is pretty good, considering that he didn't play full seasons in his freshman and sophomore seasons. Sorry, but you are going to have a hard time convincing anyone that the kid didn't play sick football in college. He has the potential to be another Randy Moss. Perhaps you have forgotten, but many of the knocks you cite for why Hardy will suck are the same things that people said about Moss when he came out. He had great leaping ability, but he ran lazy routes and wasn't the fastest guy on the field. How did that turn out? I'd say he transitioned pretty well to the pros. Not saying that Hardy will do as well, but he has a lot of potential and his college performance suggests good things to come.

 

Wisconsin 4-17-0 (one of his worst career games)

Illinois 6-42-1 (He was double covered most of the game and caught a TD that kept them in the game to the fourth quarter)

[dave mcbride]

Well, OK, and that's a different angle, so I'll jump in on apples-to-apples fashion here.

 

How can he be accurate when in five of 9 starts he threw for under 53.5%, often much less like in the Giants game?

 

I mean what you're saying is that the reason for the incompletes had nothing to do with him. OK. I disagree. Clearly not all were his fault, but a good many were.

 

I happened to notice that in the team's efforts to keep sacks down, he often overlooked some big play potential downfield in exchange for short, easy passes. I mean he had YPAs and YPCs better than only Cleo Lemon and Brady Coyle! This is good?

 

I'm also not snide and condescending and if you construe it that way I don't know what to say. But I'm a little astonished here at what passes for so called thoughtful analysis. If you want to just say that for no reason you expect Edwards to step up and play well, then fine, do it. But several here, with you just being the next in line, just keep slinging soft issue mud against the wall hoping it will stick, apparently. I don't recognize the tactic otherwise.

 

As to "in a couple of years," he doesn't have a couple of years. He has this season. He was hand-selected by Jauron and our personnel staff. If this flops, then get rid of the batch. He replaced Losman who was not good, but by the same measures that you and other praise Edwards, Losman probably had more solid "hopefuls." He did pitch what, something like 17 TDs and only 9 INTs the season prior, the first one in which he started. You talk about what was fair for Edwards, but was the way Losman has been treated fair? He got jockeyed in and out every season except for '06, and the team didn't have Lynch either, or Dockery or Walker, whom you praise too probably along with a better OL in '07 than '06. So we can definitely say that he did more with less, except in the book of those that don't want JP here, to succeed, or whatever.

 

Now, I'm gonna pick a game purely at random. Let's pick the one with the median Compl. %, OK? We'll use only his starts which means 9 games and a single median game, which is Philly unless I'm in error on the middle game. I'm gonna look up the play-by-play and we can analyze that game. I honestly do not know what to expect as I write this, but we'll see. Presumably you trust that.

 

Anyway, here are his drives in that game:

 

Here's the link:

 

http://www.nfl.com/liveupdate/gamecenter/2...HI_Gamebook.pdf

 

42-degrees in Philly, cloudy, moderate humidity, no rain/weather otherwise. Very nice football day, particularly for December, and in a game that the Bills were clearly trying to win to go .500, right. Good. There were no significant injuries on offense either.

 

The Bills basically had 9 drives in that game.

 

1st Drive:

 

The Bills get the ball at their 32 after the KO.

 

Looks like Edwards scrambled for 2 yards on the first play. Lynch then picks up a 1st down on a run. Edwards then throws a 4-yard pass to Royal before throwing incomplete to Parrish to force a punt.

 

OK, was that accurate? As I see it, the Bills drive ended on TE's inaccuracy.

 

2nd Drive:

 

Starting at our own 30 apparently the coaching staff had no confidence in TE whatsoever as we ran three times and out where we got stuffed on 3rd-and-1. (Lynch)

 

3rd Drive:

 

Edwards had two incompletions missing short to Evans and the deep to Evans on 3rd and 8. Naturally none of that was his fault. Presumably all of these passes are bouncing out of the hands and off the chests of all of our receivers like Evans and Parrish who haven't proven that they can catch yet in the NFL. Again, presumably.

 

4th Drive:

 

A decent drive for Edwards who basically thrived on short throws. The drive ended however in the red zone when Edwards threw a 2-yard pass on 3rd-and-4. Smart? A heads up play? Poised?

 

5th Drive:

 

In fairness to TE I don't count the drive (2 plays) to end the 1st H.

 

With great field position it's another decent TE drive again thriving on short passes, the biggest of which appears to have been a short outlet to Lynch who turned it into a bigger gain. 22 yards.

 

Can't blame TE for choking on 3rd and 16 in the red zone though. Tough situation for any QB. No praise either though.

 

6th Drive:

 

Down by 11 with the game still winnable, Edwards only two passes on this drive were short and incomplete. Again, can we assume that none of this had to do with him?

 

7th Drive:

 

This was another 3 and out with the coaching staff not letting TE throw it. Why not? I mean 2nd-and-2 are TE specialties in passing.

 

8th Drive:

 

4 of 5 incomplete on this drive. He did scramble for 10 on a broken play seemingly although that has little to do with what we're discussing.

 

9th Drive:

 

On this last drive with plenty of time to mount a drive and within a TD + a 2 pointer, Edwards hits on his first deep pass of the day to push the Bills to just past midfield before throwing 2 incompletes and then a pass for -7 yards to Jackson on a 3rd-and-10.

 

That was pretty much it. It is interesting to note that this was his 9th start and if anything, after a season's worth of experience he probably should have posted one of his better games, yet he didn't. No TDs, reallly only two drives worth mentioning yet even then not without their issues, and lots of incompletes on key passes as I see it.

 

Now you'll argue an say things like Evans went out with an injury just before the half and apparently didn't return, but I will defer to early in that game and other games where Evans being in there still didn't matter.

 

We can do this for every game if you like.

 

Either way, he finished 16 of 33 for 133 yards, a 4.0 YPA and an 8.3 YPC, and against a defense that really wasn't great. He finished with a rating of 65.0.

 

Now, I don't know how anyone can find much hope in games like that, and remember, there were at least four worse from a compl. % perspective and believe me, if we go thru some of the other four that were higher, we will find significant issues in at least two of those games as well.

 

So say what you want, defend TE as you'd like, but the facts speak louder than anyone's opinion on the matter as they always do. Just because you choose to override and ignore them is your business.

 

Either way, once again, someone else, put forth an argument that really has no basis.

 

Whatever. I know what I saw -- a guy with a lot of upside who throws nice, cathchable balls, has a penchant for hitting receivers in stride, avoids sacks, doesn't take delay of games, and is manifestly, clearly, and evidently smart. You can stick to your stats, and to your game in which Lee Evans went out early, Jason Peters sat out, and the Eagles were on a tear. They won five of their last 8, and the three they lost were by a total of 10 points (by 3 each to the eventual SB contestants). And their D, despite playing in the best division in the league top to bottom, finished 9th in yards and 10th in points. Moreover, that game was one in which "run for the bus" was an all-too accurate description for the Bills. As a team, they looked lackluster and disinterested. You can't measure that in stats, of course, but sometimes it pays to rely on your ol' eyeballs.

 

Go ahead and bring up the Cleveland/NYG games next to further prove your point. I for one go into this season quite happy in my belief that Edwards is going to be a good QB. It's a better place to be than the opposite, that's for sure. I've got too many complications in my life to have a bad attitude about the Bills QB.

[Adam]

Whatever. I know what I saw -- a guy with a lot of upside who throws nice, cathchable balls, has a penchant for hitting receivers in stride, avoids sacks, doesn't take delay of games, and is manifestly, clearly, and evidently smart.

OK, Edwards did look very good at times last year, but I am approaching it with cautious optimism. He doesn't have a penchant for anything at this point in his career. I don't even expect a good season out of him this year, but I hope we stick with him, barring injury.

 

To be honest, I wish he hadn't stepped on the field yet.....still too green, IMHO

[krazykat]

Penn State - #25

Wisc. #21

Illinios #18

 

I thought it was 4 teams but that was my mistake.

OK, so we're already down to three teams then. Otherwise PSU made 25th in only the USA poll and neither of the other teams was higher than 18th otherwise.

 

PSU was ranked 55th in total O, 11th in total D, and 39th in pass D.

Wisc. was ranked 46th in total O, 38th in total D, and 49th in pass D.

Illinois was ranked 34th in total O, 55th in total D, and 83rd in pass D.

 

Seems to me as I mentioned, the Big 12 was somewhat weak last year. But based on the above, do you thinki it was more O or D that got those teams barely in the rankings, and just barely for the most part?

 

Either way, my point about Hardy not having posted any good games against top pass D competition is valid regardless of how you try to dismiss it.

[krazykat]

First, it isn't only about who FINISHED top-25. Teams start and finish differently. The question is how did he do against teams that were ranked when he played them. However to answer your question, he played Penn State, Wisconsin and Illinois. However, when Indiana played Purdue, they were ranked at the time and were top 35 to finish the season. So, I hope that answers your question. And the fact is that Hardy had one of his best career games against Penn State. He was average against Wisconsin and Illinois, and was excellent against Purdue. Again see the stats above for the Purdue and Penn State games. As for Wisconsin and Illinois, those stats are listed below. That being said, the Big-Ten is one of the best football conferences in the NCAA, second only to, maybe, the SEC, and that depends who you talk to. None of the teams in the conference utterly suck. Even Northwestern can stay in games against good teams. So to say that he didn't play anyone in that conference demonstrates that you don't pay much attention to college football, or at least not to the Big 10. And, while you can argue in the opposite, putting up 36 TDs in 33 games is pretty good, considering that he didn't play full seasons in his freshman and sophomore seasons. Sorry, but you are going to have a hard time convincing anyone that the kid didn't play sick football in college. He has the potential to be another Randy Moss. Perhaps you have forgotten, but many of the knocks you cite for why Hardy will suck are the same things that people said about Moss when he came out. He had great leaping ability, but he ran lazy routes and wasn't the fastest guy on the field. How did that turn out? I'd say he transitioned pretty well to the pros. Not saying that Hardy will do as well, but he has a lot of potential and his college performance suggests good things to come.

 

Wisconsin 4-17-0 (one of his worst career games)

Illinois 6-42-1 (He was double covered most of the game and caught a TD that kept them in the game to the fourth quarter)

No it doesn't matter how he played against teams that were "ranked when he played them." The rankings are at least partially subjective to start the season and teams sort their way thru them.

 

Look, I'm tired of fielding points for every excuse floated here Believe what you want to for whatever reasons you want.

[krazykat]

Whatever. I know what I saw -- a guy with a lot of upside who throws nice, cathchable balls, has a penchant for hitting receivers in stride, avoids sacks, doesn't take delay of games, and is manifestly, clearly, and evidently smart. You can stick to your stats, and to your game in which Lee Evans went out early, Jason Peters sat out, and the Eagles were on a tear. They won five of their last 8, and the three they lost were by a total of 10 points (by 3 each to the eventual SB contestants). And their D, despite playing in the best division in the league top to bottom, finished 9th in yards and 10th in points. Moreover, that game was one in which "run for the bus" was an all-too accurate description for the Bills. As a team, they looked lackluster and disinterested. You can't measure that in stats, of course, but sometimes it pays to rely on your ol' eyeballs.

 

Go ahead and bring up the Cleveland/NYG games next to further prove your point. I for one go into this season quite happy in my belief that Edwards is going to be a good QB. It's a better place to be than the opposite, that's for sure. I've got too many complications in my life to have a bad attitude about the Bills QB.

Well, OK then, with a top 5 RB, and a great OL, Lee Evans, the reason why the Bills did what they did last year is because of Edwards and he had little to do with why we couldn't move the ball or score.

[Adam]

Well, OK then, with a top 5 RB, and a great OL, Lee Evans, the reason why the Bills did what they did last year is because of Edwards and he had little to do with why we couldn't move the ball or score.

I think you mean a great left tackle. Lynch was only a top-5 running back if you only count plays that he touches the ball. He couldn't block me on a blitz, which hurt both QB's, as did the fact that we had one WR capable of playing on the outside once we lost Price. Parrish is clueless as to how to play WR, and that hurt both QB's as well.

[VOR]

It will be interesting to see if Lynch's LASIK surgery helps him.

[obie_wan]

It will be interesting to see if Lynch's LASIK surgery helps him.

 

hopefully it will that make him smarter and thus able to run to the right hole and pick up the blitz

[VOR]

hopefully it will that make him smarter and thus able to run to the right hole and pick up the blitz

He got 1,115 yards at 4.0 YPC and 7 TD's despite missing 3 full games. Over a full season that would have worked-out to 1,372 yard and almost 9 TD's. Not too shabby. Although the point about picking up the blitz is valid, and something most rookie RB's struggle doing.

[eball]

hopefully it will that make him smarter and thus able to run to the right hole and pick up the blitz

Again, I need to ask this; you didn't reply to my earlier question. Where are you getting that Lynch didn't run to the correct holes? Is it your personal observation or have you read/heard it somewhere else?

 

I'm really just curious.

[krazykat]

I think you mean a great left tackle. Lynch was only a top-5 running back if you only count plays that he touches the ball. He couldn't block me on a blitz, which hurt both QB's, as did the fact that we had one WR capable of playing on the outside once we lost Price. Parrish is clueless as to how to play WR, and that hurt both QB's as well.

Well you're painting a picture of a less than .500 team though.

[krazykat]

Not saying that Hardy will do as well, but he has a lot of potential and his college performance suggests good things to come.

Hey ax,

 

about Hardy, I guess I'm just saying that I have more hope for Steve Johnson who had good to outstanding games against LSU, the national champs and 9th ranked pass D, Mississippi State, the 7th ranked pass D, Vanderbilt, the 18th ranked pass D, Arkansas, the 23rd ranked pass D, and Georgia, the 36 ranked pass D, better than anyone that Hardy played, and the 2nd/3rd ranked team at the end of the season. He also helped light up FSU in his bowl game and was probably the biggest reason for the Wildcat's win.

 

So if someone said that I had to lay down a hundred bucks on one of the two having a better pro career and posting 1,000 yards next season, my money would go down on Johnson without a thought.

[obie_wan]

Again, I need to ask this; you didn't reply to my earlier question. Where are you getting that Lynch didn't run to the correct holes? Is it your personal observation or have you read/heard it somewhere else?

 

I'm really just curious.

 

heard it discussed several times

[keepthefaith]

hopefully it will that make him smarter and thus able to run to the right hole and pick up the blitz

 

He needs to learn how to avoid people rather than run into them.

[VOR]

He needs to learn how to avoid people rather than run into them.

It's all good, as long as he runs over them and gets away with it.

[Pyrite Gal]

Parrish is clueless as to how to play WR,

Do you have any objective information which supports this opinion or is it merely just something which ranges between another fan's view or a simple fact free rant which is all to prevalent on this board.

 

My sense of the actual objective facts of Parrish's play are:

 

His first year as a rookie was fairly much a lost year in terms of productivity as a Bill as this first choice of the Bills (though a second rounder as we had traded away our first choice to get JP) as he suffered an injury in camp which caused him to miss most of this learning opportunity. The team he joined was a screwed up unit as the OC got switched in the middle of the season and the HC resigned.

 

His second year saw greater productivity (not hard to do given the disruptive rookie year coaching shenanigans). Yet the good news was that after the injury he played all 16 games and actually began to show value to the team as a PR guy on ST pm practice.

 

He did show a couple of episodes of good route running which ironically was from the slot rather than the usual burner position on the outside as he ran good slants with lomg TDs against the Jets and DET. No one would correctly accuse Parrish of being an all-star but all too often on the internet folks seem to have only two judgments, either you are an All-Pro or you are clueless.

 

Neither is true as Parrish is somewhere in between. He is essentially a smurf and the role we had him play going over the middle alot seems quite questionable for a player who missed significant time right off the bat due to injury.

 

Yet, rather than being clueless, Parish showed good recognition and an ability to run a route to give him the separation to use his speed on the two TDs and the handful of other longer pick-ups he made.

 

Parrish broke out a bit in his third year and proved himself to be one of the most feared PR guys in the league. Opponents clearly kicked away from him on some punts giving up yardage putting the ball OB rather than giving him a shot at a return. Even better, for the second year in a row Parrish played in all 16 games and jumped right up after a couple of vicious hits on patterns over the middle.

 

Again rather than being clueless, his reception numbers improved once again with him logging 35 catches up from 23 the year before.

 

Was Parrish god's gift for pass patterns? N.

 

But given his improvement he has shown each year, his taking in a number of catches which was not horrible compared to most #3 WRs and him showing recognition and ability to run routes to give him separation when the opposing DC is foolish enough to give him room and cover him one on one, this is much more than total cluelessness even though it is not great.

 

Even more to the point which makes your indictment a bit weird is that with the firing of his first OC and his second OC Fairchild never really demonstrating an effective ability to run the Bills D, it just seems odd and without support for one to deliver a lot of blame directly to Parrish.

 

Is he clueless> There is little evidence of that and lots of reasons to hope that Schonert runs a much better offense, that the young Edwards will improve all the WRs play over last year and that the presence of Hardy will make for a much more potent passing game than the poor job Fairchild seem to do with the getting older Price and no TEs , and a failure to use the RBs effectively as receivers.

 

Indicting Parrish as a leading problem here does not seem football smart.

[eball]

heard it discussed several times

Oh. Okay.

[ax4782]

Hey ax,

 

about Hardy, I guess I'm just saying that I have more hope for Steve Johnson who had good to outstanding games against LSU, the national champs and 9th ranked pass D, Mississippi State, the 7th ranked pass D, Vanderbilt, the 18th ranked pass D, Arkansas, the 23rd ranked pass D, and Georgia, the 36 ranked pass D, better than anyone that Hardy played, and the 2nd/3rd ranked team at the end of the season. He also helped light up FSU in his bowl game and was probably the biggest reason for the Wildcat's win.

 

So if someone said that I had to lay down a hundred bucks on one of the two having a better pro career and posting 1,000 yards next season, my money would go down on Johnson without a thought.

 

I can see why you would do that. He may have been the steal of the draft. I was impressed with the film I saw of him and he has pretty good hands. He was getting a lot of time at the number three and four receiver spot in the OTAs and the coaches seemed to be really impressed with him. I would not be surprised if Hardy and Johnson were on the field together a lot this season. I think they both have the potential to be excellent receivers, though I can't say I don't agree with you somewhat. Johnson is going to be excellent, but if Hardy has route running problems, Johnson has more of them. That was the knock on him from almost everyone, though most had him going higher than the Seventh Round. Buffalo got a lucky break with the guy. We'll see. Personally, I think that both of them will have some impact on the offense, but I think Hardy, at least for the next couple of seasons will have the bigger role.