There goes Obama's lead in the polls....

[pBills]

To be released by RASMUSSEN: National Poll Shows Bounce for Obama; Obama now leads McCain 48% to 43%....

[Chilly]

To be released by RASMUSSEN: National Poll Shows Bounce for Obama; Obama now leads McCain 48% to 43%....

 

Yeah, because those polls matter just so, so much.

[erynthered]

The RCow poll has Obama leading 78% to JM's 22%.

[pBills]

Which was my point a while ago... polls mean nothing until we get closer to November 4th.

[Chilly]

Which was my point a while ago... polls mean nothing until we get closer to November 4th.

 

Wrong. Current polling will help define and evolve campaign strategy.

 

The *general election* polls of one candidate vs another don't really mean all that much.

[pBills]

Much of the campaign strategy revolves around demographics of a certain area... educational background, finances, race, etc., etc. Granted a poll can alter that a bit.. but most messaging is done ahead of time. Hard to change messaging on materials/handouts - so the main area to be altered would be speeches, press releases and other quick hits.

[Chilly]

Much of the campaign strategy revolves around demographics of a certain area... educational background, finances, race, etc., etc. Granted a poll can alter that a bit.. but most messaging is done ahead of time. Hard to change messaging on materials/handouts - so the main area to be altered would be speeches, press releases and other quick hits.

 

Which is why I said these general election polls are almost worthless - they provide no data on specific areas.

 

Both candidates will be focusing on certain states (like MO, OH, MI, etc) from now until the election. Undoubtedly, both will alter their messages based upon the feedback they are receiving from polls.

 

Few points:

 

A.) 6 months is plenty of time to change messaging on materials/handouts based upon what they find is working. I doubt each candidate will only have one direct mailer and nothing else.

B.) Television media has some of the largest impact available, and a lot of the content going to the press can be changed on a daily basis (outside of TV ads, of course).

C.) If they agree to weekly debates (like what has been proposed), there is no doubt that their messages will change quickly (even if its only in subtle ways).

D.) They will be using the basis of what works and what doesn't work when they change their message to determine what to put on the more static direct mailers.

 

So, yes, polls are extremely important, and impact every aspect of the campaign over the next 6 months.

[pBills]

Which is why I said these general election polls are almost worthless - they provide no data on specific areas.

 

Both candidates will be focusing on certain states (like MO, OH, MI, etc) from now until the election. Undoubtedly, both will alter their messages based upon the feedback they are receiving from polls.

 

Few points:

 

A.) 6 months is plenty of time to change messaging on materials/handouts based upon what they find is working. I doubt each candidate will only have one direct mailer and nothing else.

B.) Television media has some of the largest impact available, and a lot of the content going to the press can be changed on a daily basis (outside of TV ads, of course).

C.) If they agree to weekly debates (like what has been proposed), there is no doubt that their messages will change quickly (even if its only in subtle ways).

D.) They will be using the basis of what works and what doesn't work when they change their message to determine what to put on the more static direct mailers.

 

So, yes, polls are extremely important, and impact every aspect of the campaign over the next 6 months.

 

 

 

Ok, so we pretty much agree... these general election polls are pretty much worthless.

 

 

6 months is plenty of time, however sometimes polls come out right before a candidate arrives in a certain area. Those are the times when prepared messaging can't necessarily change - but it can be altered a bit via speeches, press releases, etc. Plus, a lot of the time campaigns will cover so many different alternatives to the main message just in case.

 

In regards to static direct mailers... most pieces are created early with look and feel and some sort of basic message. The copy will be changed and altered right up until the time it goes on Press.

[Chilly]

6 months is plenty of time, however sometimes polls come out right before a candidate arrives in a certain area. Those are the times when prepared messaging can't necessarily change - but it can be altered a bit via speeches, press releases, etc. Plus, a lot of the time campaigns will cover so many different alternatives to the main message just in case.

 

Yes, but lots of times candidates know what sort of messages are positively or negatively affecting an area before they get their (from seeing what reaction they get from speeches, ads, etc). Of course, a lot of this is done via focus groups as well and not necessarily polling, but they are pretty similar.

 

In regards to static direct mailers... most pieces are created early with look and feel and some sort of basic message. The copy will be changed and altered right up until the time it goes on Press.

 

Yep - which gives the campaign (some) time to react to information that they find out.

[pBills]

Yes, but lots of times candidates know what sort of messages are positively or negatively affecting an area before they get their (from seeing what reaction they get from speeches, ads, etc). Of course, a lot of this is done via focus groups as well and not necessarily polling, but they are pretty similar.

 

 

 

Yep - which gives the campaign (some) time to react to information that they find out.

 

 

 

Focus groups, as much as I hate them... they do tend to play a part in the messaging and design of campaign materials.