"The Mega Bills" article in Pro Football Outsiders

[Pyrite Gal]

LINK

The article fails to acknowledge one key difference between Oklahoma City, Sheboygan or whatever small market town one wants to compare Buffalo too: YES THE BUFFALO MARKET IS WAY TOO SMALL TO ATTRACT AND NFL TEAM, BUT THIS IS NOT THE QUESTION AS THERE IS ALREADY AN NFL FRANCHISE HERE WITH 4O YEARS OF MARKETING THAT IS A FACT.

 

Again, the NFL is motivated by wanting the $.

 

A decision to move to Toronto is a decision not only to pursue the huge potential Toronto $, but also is a decision to abandon the WNY $ that have generated an asset worth between $500 million and a billion dollars.

 

Will the NFL approve an ownership deal which accesses the greater annual income? Yeah sure. Will the NFL approve an ownership deal which simply walks away from 45,000+ season tickets, commercials easily sold to local businesses, a smaller than Toronto but still significant number of local tie-ins, the asset of the tie to an original AFL team, etc. etc. etc?

 

Not unless they have to.

 

Again the proposal which generates the most $ for the NFL is not a choice between Toronto and Buffalo, but an effort to get the existing $ out of Buffalo and the new # out of Toronto at the same time.

 

I have yet to see a compelling argument why this is not even worth consideration.

[PromoTheRobot]

The article fails to acknowledge one key difference between Oklahoma City, Sheboygan or whatever small market town one wants to compare Buffalo too: YES THE BUFFALO MARKET IS WAY TOO SMALL TO ATTRACT AND NFL TEAM, BUT THIS IS NOT THE QUESTION AS THERE IS ALREADY AN NFL FRANCHISE HERE WITH 4O YEARS OF MARKETING THAT IS A FACT.

 

Again, the NFL is motivated by wanting the $.

A decision to move to Toronto is a decision not only to pursue the huge potential Toronto $, but also is a decision to abandon the WNY $ that have generated an asset worth between $500 million and a billion dollars.

 

Will the NFL approve an ownership deal which accesses the greater annual income? Yeah sure. Will the NFL approve an ownership deal which simply walks away from 45,000+ season tickets, commercials easily sold to local businesses, a smaller than Toronto but still significant number of local tie-ins, the asset of the tie to an original AFL team, etc. etc. etc?

 

Not unless they have to.

 

Again the proposal which generates the most $ for the NFL is not a choice between Toronto and Buffalo, but an effort to get the existing $ out of Buffalo and the new # out of Toronto at the same time.

 

I have yet to see a compelling argument why this is not even worth consideration.

The flaw in the first statement is you assume that the Bills would not have become valuable if not for WNY fans. You could also argue the Bills would be twice as valuable if they played anywhere else than WNY.

 

The second statement is also flawed. If a single game at the Rogers Centre generates twice the revenue as a game at RWS, why wouldn't you want all your games in Toronto? You lose money with every game in Buffalo! The only way the Bills stay in the game is if somebody, be it the NFL, the US Congress, or the Canadian government, prevent a full relocation of the Bills to Toronto.

 

PTR

[Peevo]

The flaw in the first statement is you assume that the Bills would not have become valuable if not for WNY fans. You could also argue the Bills would be twice as valuable if they played anywhere else than WNY.

 

The second statement is also flawed. If a single game at the Rogers Centre generates twice the revenue as a game at RWS, why wouldn't you want all your games in Toronto? You lose money with every game in Buffalo! The only way the Bills stay in the game is if somebody, be it the NFL, the US Congress, or the Canadian government, prevent a full relocation of the Bills to Toronto.

 

PTR

 

 

Yeah that's probably correct. I think as more time passes, we're all getting a cold, hard lesson in the economics of "big time" sports. What's really sad, is just like any other corporation, the NFL is legally bound, per SEC law to hold no accountability to anyone other than its shareholders. Its only purpose, as a corporation, is to make profit. Not only profit, but as much profit as is humanly possible. Therefore, as PTR said, if Rogers Centre generates twice the renevue per game as it would in Buffalo, it benefits the best interest of the league proper to have all games played there. More revenue for the Bills means more revenue shared to the league.

 

What's amazing is how the NFL still markets itself as some, "every man" league. That baseball is "America's passtime" but football is "America's game." Brilliant. Yet really, football now is truly "corporate America's game." It may be a shotty point, but anybody think that a politician could have the balls to bring Anti-Trust legislation against the NFL? Is not the National Football League a monopoly on the game, thus, preventing any successful or alternative competition? Just a thought.

[bills_fan]

It may be a shotty point, but anybody think that a politician could have the balls to bring Anti-Trust legislation against the NFL? Is not the National Football League a monopoly on the game, thus, preventing any successful or alternative competition? Just a thought.

 

 

Yes. Shumer has nothing to lose and everything to gain by fighting for NYS's football team. Its part of the reason this Republican hopes the US Senate stays Democrat. Keep Shumer as powerful as ever until the Bills issue is decided. Hell, he may even end up as Senate majority leader in the not-so-distant future and he knows the easiest way to keep upstate firmly behind him is to fight for the Bills. He's already done it and I think he'll do it again.

[Pyrite Gal]

The flaw in the first statement is you assume that the Bills would not have become valuable if not for WNY fans. You could also argue the Bills would be twice as valuable if they played anywhere else than WNY.

 

The second statement is also flawed. If a single game at the Rogers Centre generates twice the revenue as a game at RWS, why wouldn't you want all your games in Toronto? You lose money with every game in Buffalo! The only way the Bills stay in the game is if somebody, be it the NFL, the US Congress, or the Canadian government, prevent a full relocation of the Bills to Toronto.

 

PTR

Regarding the first statement I am sure the Bills would be valuable (and even more valuable actually) if the franchise was in NYC, LA or Toronto. I do not argue against that at all. However, I assume (as you do doyou not) that the franchise has been in Buffalo for roughly 40 years and that when/if the franchise moves elsewhere that all of that value cannot simply be moved with it.

 

A lot can (it will still be a member of the NFL and the contracts with the players and team will be honored). Even some of the season tickets holders would gladly spend their money in Toronto.

 

However, what value do YOU place on the assets that will be lost and cannot move? Any? Is there some value to those assets?

 

Most importantly, can they be retained while still getting new assets from a Toronto club?

 

I think the difference here is that those who are actually stuck in the past are thinking of this franchise mainly in the context of being owned by one individual or entity. Actually, particularly after 100% owner Ralph is dead it actually is the NFL as a whole which has total approval over the sale whose financial interests will weigh quite heavily on the decision who gets the franchise.

 

It is the NFL which given a choice between a huge potential asset in Toronto and a far more definite smaller (but still huge) asset in Buffalo makes the most $ by having franchises in both places.

 

I think there are all sorts of reasons ($) why the NFL will AT LEAST want to weigh the possibilities of whether they can gets bucks from BOTH a new franchise owned likely by Rogers in TOR and an old franchise owned by whomever (Golisano, Jacobs, NYS, whomever) in Buffalo.

 

The logic you reject in the second statement is merely that from the standpoint of the NFL decision-maker sure you get your hunk of twice as much scratch from a TOR franchise as Buffalo, but why chose one or the other when you can potentially have both?

 

The NFL does not lose money having franchises in both places. Do you think they do?

 

I agree that the owner of the Bills (Ralph) loses money when he has a less profitable franchise in Buffalo than a more profitable franchise in TOR.

 

However, Ralph has set the reality we are operating under here that he will be dead.

 

At that point, Ralph's heirs will sale the team because they have declared no interest in running it and likely estate taxes will force them to sale to cover the chunk they owe from the transfer.

 

At this point, the NFL has the full decision to approve or disapprove of a buyer. At that point the NFL will have a decision to make of a WNY franchise, a TOR franchise, some third location, or both.

 

My sense is that extreme interest and huge population base on Toronto likely makes a franchise their a viable concern. The question which there is scant little deep analysis on in this discussion is how much money can be made from a WNY franchise with a TOR franchise operating.

 

From what I can see, the regional marketing strategy of the Bills would clearly be hurt by this new alternative. However, from what I have seen of the 10,000 or so fans in CA friendly estimations make up of the 50,000 fan season ticket base which would be lost would while making a WNY franchise less profitable would not necessarily be a deathknell.

 

In fact, in the short-run, the TOR interest seems to be quite high that if part of the cost Rogers (or some other deep pocket) would pay includes a payment to the Bills equal to the scratch 10,000 season ticket holders provide that should be doable as far as the CAs are concerned.

 

What WNY would then need to do is use the largesse of the huge subsidy from Rogers to instead focus a marketing strategy on building and improving the eastward looking Bills marketing strategy, the westward US Bills strategy, and getting as much cash as possible from So. Ontarians who choose Buffalo over the new Toronto team.

 

I think folks are caught up in thinking of the NFL in the old model where individuals like Wellington Mara, George Halas, Dan Rooney and even Ralph Wilson competed as individual owners and ground the NFLPA under their boots in the mid-80s lockout.

 

The new model NFL was created in the early 90s when Upshaw with the help/guidance of NYC lawyers and ending with the complicity of Paul Taglibue in the last CBA negotiation built a system where the players became a partner (and arguably a majority partner with the last CBA) with the owners.

 

Its all about the money.

 

With Ralph declaring that the Bills will stay while he is alive and once Ralph is dead decision-making about who buys he franchise though driven by estate laws will ultimately be decided by the NFL, this entity makes more $ from not only opening up a new franchise in another country, but at the same time maintaining the already achieved assets in WNY.

 

I do not think this is wholely illogical.

[BillsWatch]

From what I can see, the regional marketing strategy of the Bills would clearly be hurt by this new alternative. However, from what I have seen of the 10,000 or so fans in CA friendly estimations make up of the 50,000 fan season ticket base which would be lost would while making a WNY franchise less profitable would not necessarily be a deathknell.

 

In fact, in the short-run, the TOR interest seems to be quite high that if part of the cost Rogers (or some other deep pocket) would pay includes a payment to the Bills equal to the scratch 10,000 season ticket holders provide that should be doable as far as the CAs are concerned.

 

Why are you assuming the same 10,000 Canadian fans would go to Toronto if Bills moved?

Quite a number would not want to pay the higher ticket cost, parking cost, etc not to mention potential Dallas-like seat license cost for the Toronto Bills if that occurred. Many come from Southern Ontario and have been coming to games for years. Even many US based Bills fans would drop season tickets and maybe even going to game if Buffalo Bills tried charging rate they are asking for games in Toronto.

 

Toronto will be attracting a different crowd than Buffalo Bills - two subsets if you use the math term with a small intersection.

[Flbillsfan#1]

The flaw in the first statement is you assume that the Bills would not have become valuable if not for WNY fans. You could also argue the Bills would be twice as valuable if they played anywhere else than WNY.

 

The second statement is also flawed. If a single game at the Rogers Centre generates twice the revenue as a game at RWS, why wouldn't you want all your games in Toronto? You lose money with every game in Buffalo! The only way the Bills stay in the game is if somebody, be it the NFL, the US Congress, or the Canadian government, prevent a full relocation of the Bills to Toronto.

 

PTR

Your statement the Bills would be TWICE as valuable if they played ANYWHERE ELSE than WNY is FLAWED. Name me five cities that don't have a team that the Bills would be TWICE as valuable in. I can only think of one...... Toronto. I don't think they would be TWICE as valuable in LA. OK name me 3 more cities. In the future if the Bills cultivate the Toronto corporate market they could see that money in Buffalo, if as you say they can't do a full relocation to Toronto.

[PromoTheRobot]

Your statement the Bills would be TWICE as valuable if they played ANYWHERE ELSE than WNY is FLAWED. Name me five cities that don't have a team that the Bills would be TWICE as valuable in. I can only think of one...... Toronto. I don't think they would be TWICE as valuable in LA. OK name me 3 more cities. In the future if the Bills cultivate the Toronto corporate market they could see that money in Buffalo, if as you say they can't do a full relocation to Toronto.

1) Las Vegas...gambling is an issue but the place is flush with cash.

2) San Antonio...maybe.

3) I can't think of a third.

 

PTR

[Pyrite Gal]

Why are you assuming the same 10,000 Canadian fans would go to Toronto if Bills moved?

Quite a number would not want to pay the higher ticket cost, parking cost, etc not to mention potential Dallas-like seat license cost for the Toronto Bills if that occurred. Many come from Southern Ontario and have been coming to games for years. Even many US based Bills fans would drop season tickets and maybe even going to game if Buffalo Bills tried charging rate they are asking for games in Toronto.

 

Toronto will be attracting a different crowd than Buffalo Bills - two subsets if you use the math term with a small intersection.

Actually I don't think one should make the assumption that either the number of Canadians captured by the Bills marketing strategy is as high as 10,000 fans or that even if it was this high that all those fans would be loss to a TOR franchise. I do not think actually that the Bills would be hurt badly at all by the coming of a TOR franchise (and I think the Bills playing a game in TOR is in fact driven by the Bills needing to make a far more persuasive case that Toronto is part of their market than they do at present based mostly on the number of season tickets they sell to Canadians.

 

My sense is that even though Toronto is almost certainly (though even this assumption is not guaranteed which is another reason the Bills may well be reluctant to throw away the sure thing the franchise has in WNY for the greater POTENTIAL thing they would have in TOR) a bigger profit than Buffalo, these really are two different markets which can survive at the same time.

 

I think folks who are assuming this a only a choice between TOR or BUF are simply missing the very good chance that for the NFL as a corporate entity which will have control over who can buy Ralph's legacy that their interest will be to maximize dollars which would more likely be franchiseS in both TOR and BUF.

[Typical TBD Guy]

1) Las Vegas...gambling is an issue but the place is flush with cash.

2) San Antonio...maybe.

3) I can't think of a third.

 

PTR

 

I know you're talking more about corporate dollars than population size, but for what it's worth, the combined metro area of Buffalo (#46 in US) and Rochester (#50 in US) is actually slightly larger in population size to both San Antonio (#28 in US) and Las Vegas (#30 in US). The Los Angeles/Inland Empire market is the only one in the United States of any noticeable population size larger than WNY that still is without an NFL team.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Unite...ropolitan_areas

 

 

Also of note on that list are Jacksonville (#40 in US) and New Orleans (#51 in US).

[stuckincincy]

Actually I don't think one should make the assumption that either the number of Canadians captured by the Bills marketing strategy is as high as 10,000 fans or that even if it was this high that all those fans would be loss to a TOR franchise. I do not think actually that the Bills would be hurt badly at all by the coming of a TOR franchise (and I think the Bills playing a game in TOR is in fact driven by the Bills needing to make a far more persuasive case that Toronto is part of their market than they do at present based mostly on the number of season tickets they sell to Canadians.

 

My sense is that even though Toronto is almost certainly (though even this assumption is not guaranteed which is another reason the Bills may well be reluctant to throw away the sure thing the franchise has in WNY for the greater POTENTIAL thing they would have in TOR) a bigger profit than Buffalo, these really are two different markets which can survive at the same time.

 

I think folks who are assuming this a only a choice between TOR or BUF are simply missing the very good chance that for the NFL as a corporate entity which will have control over who can buy Ralph's legacy that their interest will be to maximize dollars which would more likely be franchiseS in both TOR and BUF.

 

Personally, I think it's the uncertainty of the Bills' future ownership that drives talk of a move to TOR. Maybe I just repeat the obvious.

 

If the NFL ends up like MLB, with the "small market" teams ending up as chronic weak sisters, well, that's the way the cookie crumbles.

 

I suspect that a team in TOR, in the same division as BUF, would make for a healthy rivalry. Hamilton, Ont. is certainly part of the greater TOR market, and they have their fans that support the Tiger Cats and despise the Argos - and vice versa.

 

Regarding 2 teams in the same "market"...the Jets and Giants co-exist.

 

I can't say why JAX has disappointing local support. They certainly have fielded competitive clubs in most seasons since their inception. I claim no deep understanding of the byzantine world of NFL money - but I think if a team were to move to TOR, JAX seems logical. But the Bills' ownership future confounds things.