Futures and Oil prices

[SD Jarhead]

Eryn- The key line in that article is "Do nothing Congress". When are they going to get their heads out of their asses and get things moving. We can get it out of the ground overnight.

 

I found it interesting that the Governor is a Democrat. He needs to call his compadres and tell them to wake the !@#$ up.

[erynthered]

Eryn- The key line in that article is "Do nothing Congress". When are they going to get their heads out of their asses and get things moving. We can get it out of the ground overnight.

 

I found it interesting that the Governor is a Democrat. He needs to call his compadres and tell them to wake the !@#$ up.

 

 

Glenn Beck interviewed him today on the radio. The guys a maverick. I like him.

[Dwight Drane]

Something to support the "Drane view."

Phase 2

 

This will test the limits of modern fiscal and monetary policies. In my view, the problem is that the focus has been too concentrated on bailing out the financial sector, when the the "bail out" needs to go to the "source," households/consumers. The housing market has to be stabilized, and there needs to be a more permanent tax cut for those who spend--I'd suggest a significant cut in SS taxes until this is over. And of course some incentives for business investment...

 

While the Fed is selling off assets to fund its bail outs, as long as the government's deficit continues to increase, guess who'll be buying...

 

Good find. The last blurb says it all. The difference in what is being reported as losses by these institutions and what is closer to reality is staggering. The only reason the regulating arm hasn't come down as of yet is because the government needs to juggle these balls in the air as long as possible before the big fallout.

[TPS]

Eryn- The key line in that article is "Do nothing Congress". When are they going to get their heads out of their asses and get things moving. We can get it out of the ground overnight.

 

I found it interesting that the Governor is a Democrat. He needs to call his compadres and tell them to wake the !@#$ up.

How far back do you want to go with that "key line?" Why is it that we subsidize industries that rely on oil (trucking, airlines, highway system, etc.) but let Amtrak starve? Why do we subsidize oil extraction, but tax it at the pump?

Maybe congress isn't "do nothing," maybe they do it for the interests that support them most? Isn't that a novel thought...

[meazza]

Soros speaks :

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5dbd0ffe-30ef-11...0077b07658.html

[SD Jarhead]

How far back do you want to go with that "key line?" Why is it that we subsidize industries that rely on oil (trucking, airlines, highway system, etc.) but let Amtrak starve? Why do we subsidize oil extraction, but tax it at the pump?

Maybe congress isn't "do nothing," maybe they do it for the interests that support them most? Isn't that a novel thought...

 

I completely agree that they do it for the interests that support them. That is why the Democrat Party, who is beholden to extreme environmental groups like the Sierra Club, will not allow oil exploration/drilling at ANWR, as one example. And, yes you can go back to the Republican led Congress who lacked the foresight to do anything about it also. What we are seeing now is political games being played at the expense of our national strategic interests in a time of crisis.

 

The issue for me is for our nation to become less dependent on foreign energy sources so we can have a chance of getting out of the M.East. Right now we need to have a footprint there to preserve and keep open our supply lines (shipping) of black crack from S.A. and other Gulf States. It just so happens that that party now in power in Congress is the one screaming the loudest about getting us out of there but yet they will do nothing (in fact they obstruct) about developing domestic sources like oil shale and opening up domestic areas likely to hold oil reserves.

[erynthered]

I completely agree that they do it for the interests that support them. That is why the Democrat Party, who is beholden to extreme environmental groups like the Sierra Club, will not allow oil exploration/drilling at ANWR, as one example. And, yes you can go back to the Republican led Congress who lacked the foresight to do anything about it also. What we are seeing now is political games being played at the expense of our national strategic interests in a time of crisis.

 

The issue for me is for our nation to become less dependent on foreign energy sources so we can have a chance of getting out of the M.East. Right now we need to have a footprint there to preserve and keep open our supply lines (shipping) of black crack from S.A. and other Gulf States. It just so happens that that party now in power in Congress is the one screaming the loudest about getting us out of there but yet they will do nothing (in fact they obstruct) about developing domestic sources like oil shale and opening up domestic areas likely to hold oil reserves.

 

 

(pounding on my desk) !@#$ING A RIGHT!!!

[TPS]

Which is why the other side of the policy coin is being used too. The government, with one hand, is pushing its housing rescue through and handing out checks with the other hand. If the Fed and Govt can stave off the collapse of asset values, and the economy recovers, they can always start siphoning off the liquidity when things improve.

 

The late economist Hyman Minsky wrote an article titled "Can 'IT' Happen Again?" By 'IT' he meant another depression. He believed IT could be prevented through the policy options available to the FED and Government. The current conditions are such that I believe IT would happen now, but policy makers are using everything at their disposal to try to prevent IT. That doesn't mean IT won't....

 

As for China and the $, I think most people here already know my view (similar to yours). I think I wrote elsewhere in this thread about my views on the $-oil linkage.

Someone else who understands you have to solve the root of the financial crisis:

David hale

[SD Jarhead]

Per the article "It is possible that several hundred banks could also fail during the year ahead unless there is a sudden recovery in house prices."

 

A sudden housing recovery isn't going to happen. With every day that passes Americans are getting pinched tighter and tighter. As has been mentioned in other threads, the next wave of insolvency is in credit cards and the like. Correct me if I'm worng, but each homeowner that goes into foreclosure or bankruptcy removes one person (or family) out of the game who can help housing recover.

 

It looks like the 'perfect storm' scenario is coming, and it looks to be nasty! I know there were many who ridiculed Dwight Drane and his predictions on the way the market was headed, but he looks to be spot on at this point.

[TPS]

Per the article "It is possible that several hundred banks could also fail during the year ahead unless there is a sudden recovery in house prices."

 

A sudden housing recovery isn't going to happen. With every day that passes Americans are getting pinched tighter and tighter. As has been mentioned in other threads, the next wave of insolvency is in credit cards and the like. Correct me if I'm worng, but each homeowner that goes into foreclosure or bankruptcy removes one person (or family) out of the game who can help housing recover.

 

It looks like the 'perfect storm' scenario is coming, and it looks to be nasty! I know there were many who ridiculed Dwight Drane and his predictions on the way the market was headed, but he looks to be spot on at this point.

Not denying the severity of the situation. The point I made previously is that we are testing the limits of policy, both monetary and fiscal. Hale is saying essentially what I said, that fiscal policy needs to take a greater role to stabilize homeowners and defaults which are the root cause of the financial crisis. Yes, there is a perfect storm, but if policy makers remain aggressive, I believe they can limit the impact. I fully expect another round of tax cuts for the lower and middle classes. In times of crisis, policy makers revert to demand side policies.

[Adam]

Is there any way we can possibly make a serious dent into the deficit in the next 10 or so years? I honestly can't see it happening with Obama or McCain. Between the war and dependence on foreign resources, I see it growing instead of shrinking

[SD Jarhead]

It looks like Dwight Drane may have known what the fug he was talking about...

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...18/cnrbs118.xml

[Gavin in Va Beach]

It looks like Dwight Drane may have known what the fug he was talking about...

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...18/cnrbs118.xml

 

 

Sounds like it's time to start stocking up on canned goods, water, and ammo...

[SD Jarhead]

I'm already there brother...believe it!

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

You people get laid much?

 

Christ, reading that thread nearly put me to sleep.

[Dwight Drane]

Sounds like it's time to start stocking up on canned goods, water, and ammo...

 

Yes it is......and pray.

 

It feels like walking down a Bourbon St alley at 3 AM. Something can jump out at you any moment.

[RLflutie7]

unregulated markets

 

Interesting piece on how unregulated futures markets are contributing to rising oil prices. Regulated markets have a cap on the amount of contracts any single buyer can purchase to prevent speculators from doing exactly what they're doing now in the unregulated markets. As Keynes said,

 

"Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes a bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill done."

 

 

I said back in 1999, that we'd be better off if the stock market crashed. The "average joe" is going to get crused by the stock market. Wall Street seems to rule every facet of the American Life in a negative way. Just wait for the 401K crash.

[Alaska Darin]

Not denying the severity of the situation. The point I made previously is that we are testing the limits of policy, both monetary and fiscal. Hale is saying essentially what I said, that fiscal policy needs to take a greater role to stabilize homeowners and defaults which are the root cause of the financial crisis. Yes, there is a perfect storm, but if policy makers remain aggressive, I believe they can limit the impact. I fully expect another round of tax cuts for the lower and middle classes. In times of crisis, policy makers revert to demand side policies.

You need to look up the definition of root. The housing "crisis" is a byproduct of piss poor Fed policy, which is the actual "root cause" of what is going on now.

 

And thanks for adding yet another article pining for further government intervention. How surprising.

[GG]

You need to look up the definition of root. The housing "crisis" is a byproduct of piss poor Fed policy, which is the actual "root cause" of what is going on now.

 

And thanks for adding yet another article pining for further government intervention. How surprising.

 

Easy Fed money is a convenient scapegoat and just another cog in the wheel that built up the mess. A lot of the liquidity came from overseas as the global economy was running in high gear. Even if Fed had raised rates earlier, it wouldn't have halted the rise. By the time the housing securitization machine was running in full swing in 2004 Fed raised rates by 1%, and by another 3% by 2006. If easy Fed money was the reason for the boom, then you would expect mortgage lending to dramatically drop off between 2004 & 2006, when the exact opposite happened - new mortgage issuances more than tripled over that period.

[Alaska Darin]

Easy Fed money is a convenient scapegoat and just another cog in the wheel that built up the mess. A lot of the liquidity came from overseas as the global economy was running in high gear. Even if Fed had raised rates earlier, it wouldn't have halted the rise. By the time the housing securitization machine was running in full swing in 2004 Fed raised rates by 1%, and by another 3% by 2006. If easy Fed money was the reason for the boom, then you would expect mortgage lending to dramatically drop off between 2004 & 2006, when the exact opposite happened - new mortgage issuances more than tripled over that period.

Let's just say I disagree completely. And "expectation" has to do with sensibility, which the "housing boom" ain't based on in the least. If that were the case, you wouldn't have families making under $80K qualifying for houses that cost over $500K.

 

The "ROOT" cause of the whole thing was cheap money. There were other factors that got it steaming further and faster than it should have but without cheap money, they never come into play.