excellent piece by Mike Lombardi in SI

[Bill from NYC]

Fair points, KFBD.

 

On the establish the run point, that seems like a bit of cherry picking as well. Picking 5 teams that run a West Coast or spread offense, have enough offensive aerial firepower to establish a sizable lead early, and then play kill the clock in the 4th quarter, doesn't exactly prove that all teams have to come out of the gate slinging the ball all over the sandlot to be successful. An offense needs to stick with what they do best. If its banging the rock up the gut and mixing in the play action, ala the Pittsburgh Steelers, or some other system. Also, teams the would go significantly the other way, with a balanced or run oriented attack early in the game and then swing to heaving it nearly every offensive snap are, probably, more likely to be playing from behind and are at a disadvantage to the defense, further reducing their offensive success.

 

The Montana/Young 49ers were the first team I can remember who used the pass as a method of ball control. Walsh really did change the game imo.

Lately I see less of this, and balance seems to be the hot ticket. Even Peyton Manning had James and other fine rbs to go with his downfield passing game. Of course, the threat of Manning passing made things easier for them.

 

The above seems to be just another boat that the Bills have missed while using our best picks on injured skill players, return men, and of course a boatload of defensive backs. I think that Trent will help this offense immensely if he, Lynch, and most of all the line can stay healthy.

[Dibs]

.....Trading down to #15 (which I believe was Denver's original spot in the first round) would have gotten us that 2nd round pick Marv mentioned; and would have allowed us to pick a better football player than Whitner. So yes, the Bills would clearly have been better off trading down and taking Mangold, even if they took Mangold at #15......

Mangold may be a better football player than Whitner(opinion & time will tell) but he certainly wasn't the better prospect at the time of the draft.

 

Using that sort of logic.......everyone would have had a better draft if they had drafted Brady in round 1 that year. Hindsight makes magnificent drafting.

[Orton's Arm]

What, it's time for your quarterly beating already? My, how time flies.

Has anyone ever told you you're a truly sad human being? By your own admission, your work contributes nothing to anyone's benefit. You've made over 14,000 posts on these boards, most of which have been mean-spirited, content-free attempts to make other people unhappy (as above). Even the members of your own family want nothing to do with you. You're a statistical physicist who doesn't even know the difference between a binomial distribution and a multinomial distribution. You think the regression effect only applies to autocorrelations (which is stupid, even for you). You've just gone along with Ramius's attempt to ridicule the widely recognized concepts of expected value and estimation error; thus squandering whatever threadbare remnant of credibility you might once have had.

 

Please do not waste any more of my time. I want nothing to do with you.

[Orton's Arm]

Mangold may be a better football player than Whitner(opinion & time will tell) but he certainly wasn't the better prospect at the time of the draft.

 

Using that sort of logic.......everyone would have had a better draft if they had drafted Brady in round 1 that year. Hindsight makes magnificent drafting.

Your last comment isn't applicable to this situation. Bill and I had been thinking about a trade-down for Mangold before the draft even began. When the Bills chose Whitner, Bill and I immediately expressed the view that the Bills would have been better off trading down for Mangold. What more could we possibly have done to have keept you from labeling this a 20/20 hindsight situation?

 

Not everyone would agree with your comment about Whitner being a better prospect than Mangold. A number of mock drafts didn't have Whitner going in the first round; and Vic Carucci didn't have Whitner ranked as one of the 32 best players in that year's draft.

 

After Whitner was drafted, some on these boards wrote that it's worth spending the 8th overall pick on a SS if you get a Ronnie Lott. The problem with that line of thinking is that the probability of any given player turning into the next Lott is very small. Whitner is not, and never will be, Ronnie Lott. Nor is he in the same category as Ed Reed.

 

Players like Brad Butler and Keith Ellison are successful picks, because they've contributed a lot more than you'd expect from 5th and 6th round picks. But if you credit management for finding players who exceed the expectations associated with their respective draft positions, you also have to acknowledge cases where players have fallen short of those expectations. Whitner hasn't lived up to the expectations associated with the 8th overall pick.

[Dibs]

Your last comment isn't applicable to this situation. Bill and I had been thinking about a trade-down for Mangold before the draft even began. When the Bills chose Whitner, Bill and I immediately expressed the view that the Bills would have been better off trading down for Mangold. What more could we possibly have done to have keept you from labeling this a 20/20 hindsight situation?

As I said in a post earlier......your trade down option(assuming it actually was there for the taking) was at the #11 spot. Unless one was going to draft Mangold there(he ended up #29 which IIRC was roughly where he was predicted to go) then how would you have acquired him? This is certainly 20/20 hindsight because you are using the fact now that he has panned out to in some way justifying that he could have been drafted #11 on draft day(which was never going to happen).

 

Not everyone would agree with your comment about Whitner being a better prospect than Mangold. A number of mock drafts didn't have Whitner going in the first round; and Vic Carucci didn't have Whitner ranked as one of the 32 best players in that year's draft.

True.....but obviously the Bills front office did & that is the only opinion that actually counts. Similar could be said for Mangold except with him, there was a good general consensus that he was a late 1st round talent.......every team in the NFL obviously agreed with this assessment of him since he was not drafted earlier.

 

After Whitner was drafted, some on these boards wrote that it's worth spending the 8th overall pick on a SS if you get a Ronnie Lott. The problem with that line of thinking is that the probability of any given player turning into the next Lott is very small. Whitner is not, and never will be, Ronnie Lott. Nor is he in the same category as Ed Reed.

Others said(including respected media analysts) that the position of Safety has greatly changed in the modern NFL & that the position is no longer considered to be a 'complementary' pick......particularly for teams favouring the Tampa-2 D.

 

The line of thinking from those people who said that was not thought through(most likely an emotional reaction due to their personal preferences at best based upon what used to be.) In the last 7 drafts there have been 5 Safeties drafted within the top 8(none in the previous 7 seasons). Obviously there has been a change in the way either how Safeties are utilized or that NFL teams look at the importance of safeties differently today than they did a decade ago.

 

Players like Brad Butler and Keith Ellison are successful picks, because they've contributed a lot more than you'd expect from 5th and 6th round picks. But if you credit management for finding players who exceed the expectations associated with their respective draft positions, you also have to acknowledge cases where players have fallen short of those expectations. Whitner hasn't lived up to the expectations associated with the 8th overall pick.

This is absolute bollocks!

No offense but I am getting sick and tired of people having unrealistic expectations for certain draft positions & then putting those beliefs across as facts.

Looking at DW......he is widely considered to be a top 16 safety(out of 64).....with many considering him to be top 10.

He may yet perform like an Ed Reed if he was in a defense that didn't have a retread WR playing FS, 2/3 of the LBs being backup quality, some actual pressure from the DL & consistency from the CBs around him......i.e. maybe this season.

 

Compared to other players drafted in similar position(6-10).....which is the ONLY thing that one can determine what ones expectations for the #8 should be.....we see(1997-2006)......and keeping in mind that DW has only played 2 seasons whereas most of the players below have 'become better' after 3 or more seasons in the league.

*I'll probably put some players in the wrong areas due to lack of knowledge but the overall should be clear.*

 

Better than DW

Kellen Winslow Jr

DeAngelo Hall

Kevin Williams

Terrell Suggs

Roy Williams

John Henderson

Levi Jones

Richard Seymour

Brian Urlacher

Torry Holt

Champ Bailey

Chris McAlister

Kyle Turley

Fred Taylor

Walter Jones

 

In the same ballpark as DW

Ernie Sims

Roy Williams

Dunta Robinson

Jordan Gross

Bryant McKinnie

Corey Simon

Plaxico Burress

Greg Ellis

Chris Naeole

 

Not as good as DW

Vernon Davis

Michael Huff

Matt Leinart

Pacman Jones

Troy Williamson

Antrel Rolle

Carlos Rogers

Mike Williams

Reggie Williams

Johnathan Sullivan

Byron Leftwich

Travis Taylor

Ryan Sims

Andre Carter

David Terrell

Koren Robinson

Jamal Reynolds

Thomas Jones

David Boston

Chris Claiborne

Grant Wistrom

Duane Starks

Ike Hilliard

James Farrior

Tom Knight

 

 

Results.....Of the 49 players chosen over those 10 drafts......

15(31%) have shown themselves to be definitely better

9(18%) are of similar talent/production

25(51%) are of lesser talent/production

 

When you factor in that DW has only played 2 seasons......and with low talent around him on a bad team(no help from the O).....for anyone to say that Whitner hasn't lived up to the expectations associated with the 8th overall pick is just plain wrong. After 2 years he has played at a level that is better than half of the players selected in the 6-10 range in the draft. He has definitely lived up to any reasonable expectations that one could place upon the #8 draft pick

[Huuuge Bills]

This is absolute bollocks!

No offense but I am getting sick and tired of people having unrealistic expectations for certain draft positions & then putting those beliefs across as facts.

Looking at DW......he is widely considered to be a top 16 safety(out of 64).....with many considering him to be top 10.

He may yet perform like an Ed Reed if he was in a defense that didn't have a retread WR playing FS, 2/3 of the LBs being backup quality, some actual pressure from the DL & consistency from the CBs around him......i.e. maybe this season.

 

Compared to other players drafted in similar position(6-10).....which is the ONLY thing that one can determine what ones expectations for the #8 should be.....we see(1997-2006)......and keeping in mind that DW has only played 2 seasons whereas most of the players below have 'become better' after 3 or more seasons in the league.

*I'll probably put some players in the wrong areas due to lack of knowledge but the overall should be clear.*

 

Better than DW

Kellen Winslow Jr

DeAngelo Hall

Kevin Williams

Terrell Suggs

Roy Williams

John Henderson

Levi Jones

Richard Seymour

Brian Urlacher

Torry Holt

Champ Bailey

Chris McAlister

Kyle Turley

Fred Taylor

Walter Jones

 

In the same ballpark as DW

Ernie Sims

Roy Williams

Dunta Robinson

Jordan Gross

Bryant McKinnie

Corey Simon

Plaxico Burress

Greg Ellis

Chris Naeole

 

Not as good as DW

Vernon Davis

Michael Huff

Matt Leinart

Pacman Jones

Troy Williamson

Antrel Rolle

Carlos Rogers

Mike Williams

Reggie Williams

Johnathan Sullivan

Byron Leftwich

Travis Taylor

Ryan Sims

Andre Carter

David Terrell

Koren Robinson

Jamal Reynolds

Thomas Jones

David Boston

Chris Claiborne

Grant Wistrom

Duane Starks

Ike Hilliard

James Farrior

Tom Knight

 

 

Results.....Of the 49 players chosen over those 10 drafts......

15(31%) have shown themselves to be definitely better

9(18%) are of similar talent/production

25(51%) are of lesser talent/production

 

When you factor in that DW has only played 2 seasons......and with low talent around him on a bad team(no help from the O).....for anyone to say that Whitner hasn't lived up to the expectations associated with the 8th overall pick is just plain wrong. After 2 years he has played at a level that is better than half of the players selected in the 6-10 range in the draft. He has definitely lived up to any reasonable expectations that one could place upon the #8 draft pick

 

Very nice work Dibs

[Orton's Arm]

As I said in a post earlier......your trade down option(assuming it actually was there for the taking) was at the #11 spot. Unless one was going to draft Mangold there(he ended up #29 which IIRC was roughly where he was predicted to go) then how would you have acquired him? This is certainly 20/20 hindsight because you are using the fact now that he has panned out to in some way justifying that he could have been drafted #11 on draft day(which was never going to happen).

I'm a little confused by this portion of what was otherwise a very solid post. How am I "in some way justifying that [Mangold] could have been drafted at #11" when I wanted the Bills to trade down to acquire him? Mangold at, say, #15 or #20 is a much nicer pickup than Mangold at #8.

True.....but obviously the Bills front office did & that is the only opinion that actually counts.

I wouldn't go that far: there are 31 other teams which also have worthwhile opinions about draft picks (well, except maybe Detroit). I wonder how many of those other teams felt Whitner was worth the 8th overall pick.

 

Similar could be said for Mangold except with him, there was a good general consensus that he was a late 1st round talent.......every team in the NFL obviously agreed with this assessment of him since he was not drafted earlier.

Not necessarily true. Perhaps the team with the 15th pick felt Mangold was the 12th best player; but drafted some other guy whom they felt was the 10th best. Maybe the 16th team had him rated highly, but didn't need a center. Perhaps a team near the end of the first round had a high grade on him, but either couldn't trade up to get him, or else felt he would fall to their spot. Without seeing teams' draft boards, it's impossible to say with certainty where teams had Mangold rated.

 

Others said(including respected media analysts) that the position of Safety has greatly changed in the modern NFL & that the position is no longer considered to be a 'complementary' pick......particularly for teams favouring the Tampa-2 D.

I realize that . . but it's possible the Bills have swung too far the other way; and felt they had to have a SS, even if he wasn't the next Ed Reed, and even if they had to use the 8th overall pick to absolutely guarantee they got him.

The line of thinking from those people who said that was not thought through(most likely an emotional reaction due to their personal preferences at best based upon what used to be.)

Just because you disagree with someone's opinion doesn't make it an "emotional reaction."

In the last 7 drafts there have been 5 Safeties drafted within the top 8(none in the previous 7 seasons). Obviously there has been a change in the way either how Safeties are utilized or that NFL teams look at the importance of safeties differently today than they did a decade ago.

I've seen the same thing, and you may be right about this.

 

No offense but I am getting sick and tired of people having unrealistic expectations for certain draft positions & then putting those beliefs across as facts.

Looking at DW......he is widely considered to be a top 16 safety(out of 64).....with many considering him to be top 10.

He may yet perform like an Ed Reed if he was in a defense that didn't have a retread WR playing FS, 2/3 of the LBs being backup quality, some actual pressure from the DL & consistency from the CBs around him......i.e. maybe this season.

 

Compared to other players drafted in similar position(6-10).....which is the ONLY thing that one can determine what ones expectations for the #8 should be.....we see(1997-2006)......and keeping in mind that DW has only played 2 seasons whereas most of the players below have 'become better' after 3 or more seasons in the league.

*I'll probably put some players in the wrong areas due to lack of knowledge but the overall should be clear.* . . .

 

Results.....Of the 49 players chosen over those 10 drafts......

15(31%) have shown themselves to be definitely better

9(18%) are of similar talent/production

25(51%) are of lesser talent/production

 

When you factor in that DW has only played 2 seasons......and with low talent around him on a bad team(no help from the O).....for anyone to say that Whitner hasn't lived up to the expectations associated with the 8th overall pick is just plain wrong. After 2 years he has played at a level that is better than half of the players selected in the 6-10 range in the draft. He has definitely lived up to any reasonable expectations that one could place upon the #8 draft pick

That list of names was by far the strongest part of your post. Maybe you're right to imply my expectations for an 8th overall pick were unrealistic. I still feel the Bills would have been better off had they traded down and drafted Mangold; but your post made me feel better about their decision to stay put and take Whitner.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

I realize that . . but it's possible the Bills have swung too far the other way; and felt they had to have a SS, even if he wasn't the next Ed Reed, and even if they had to use the 8th overall pick to absolutely guarantee they got him.

Sorry to interrupt...but if true, exactly what is wrong with that? Whats wrong with the Bills feeling that filling the safety position is worthy of the 8th pick, even if they aren't getting the NFL's best safety?

[Ramius]

I realize that . . but it's possible the Bills have swung too far the other way; and felt they had to have a SS, even if he wasn't the next Ed Reed, and even if they had to use the 8th overall pick to absolutely guarantee they got him.

 

On the contrary, i think the Bills had to have Donte Whitner, not just any SS. We've seen them, in the past few drafts, move around to get the guys they want. They obviously have gone into the draft with specific players in mind, and did what it took to get those players, public perception be damned. And thats whats inportant, getting talent, not simply getting "draft value."

[Sisyphean Bills]

One of those top picks at S was on Roy Williams, who also happens to actually go to Pro Bowls often. On the other hand, he is not a versatile SS and is a real liability in the passing game because he can't cover or close. He's a bigger, stronger Adam Archuleta.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Sorry to interrupt...but if true, exactly what is wrong with that? Whats wrong with the Bills feeling that filling the safety position is worthy of the 8th pick, even if they aren't getting the NFL's best safety?

They kicked Lawyer Milloy, who is still playing, to the curb creating a desperate need. Imagine for a moment a team building process which involved keeping veteran players and developing talent behind them. Then, when the younger talent is ready, the veteran player can move on and the draft can be used to acquire more talent to develop rather than be pressed into service before it is ready. Imagine the Pittsburgh Steelers model of building a team.

[obie_wan]

They kicked Lawyer Milloy, who is still playing, to the curb creating a desperate need. Imagine for a moment a team building process which involved keeping veteran players and developing talent behind them. Then, when the younger talent is ready, the veteran player can move on and the draft can be used to acquire more talent to develop rather than be pressed into service before it is ready. Imagine the Pittsburgh Steelers model of building a team.

 

that plan works for the OL also

 

just not in Buffalo

[BuffOrange]

They kicked Lawyer Milloy, who is still playing, to the curb creating a desperate need. Imagine for a moment a team building process which involved keeping veteran players and developing talent behind them. Then, when the younger talent is ready, the veteran player can move on and the draft can be used to acquire more talent to develop rather than be pressed into service before it is ready. Imagine the Pittsburgh Steelers model of building a team.

 

I can't tell if this is a clever crayonz post or if you're actually serious. The Steelers are the posterboys of the league for not re-signing veteran players - many of whom were/are playing at a much higher level than Milloy Version 2005 who couldn't tackle anyone.

[eball]

They kicked Lawyer Milloy, who is still playing, to the curb creating a desperate need. Imagine for a moment a team building process which involved keeping veteran players and developing talent behind them. Then, when the younger talent is ready, the veteran player can move on and the draft can be used to acquire more talent to develop rather than be pressed into service before it is ready. Imagine the Pittsburgh Steelers model of building a team.

That's funny.

[Ramius]

They kicked Lawyer Milloy, who is still playing, to the curb creating a desperate need. Imagine for a moment a team building process which involved keeping veteran players and developing talent behind them. Then, when the younger talent is ready, the veteran player can move on and the draft can be used to acquire more talent to develop rather than be pressed into service before it is ready. Imagine the Pittsburgh Steelers model of building a team.

 

Well, lets just ignore that over the past 2 seasons, Whitner has been playing at a higher level than milloy has. He was an upgrade from day 1. Or are you saying its only ok to upgrade the OL, and not other positions?

[Sisyphean Bills]

Ah, right. Milloy isn't a Bill anymore so we are required to hate on him. Oh well.

 

The point wasn't that Milloy was or is a great player at this point in his career. Nobody said that. The point was that Dick and Marv simply released a veteran player and created a hole that they then had to go fill. Is this argument really new to you guys? It is possible for a new regime to try and bridge from the old to the new without jettisoning the core veteran leadership of the team and some brain trusts actually take this approach. On the other hand, other brain trusts prefer to take the path of blowing everything up that the last regime was trying to do because they know the fan base will extend them a honeymoon period to do their demolition and from-the-dirt rebuilding.

 

Well, lets just ignore that over the past 2 seasons, Whitner has been playing at a higher level than milloy has. He was an upgrade from day 1. Or are you saying its only ok to upgrade the OL, and not other positions?

Again, I'll say it very slowly this time. The point is NOT about Milloy's abilities or Whitner's abilities. It was about creating a hole in the line-up that had to be filled.

[Ramius]

Ah, right. Milloy isn't a Bill anymore so we are required to hate on him. Oh well.

 

The point wasn't that Milloy was or is a great player at this point in his career. Nobody said that. The point was that Dick and Marv simply released a veteran player and created a hole that they then had to go fill. Is this argument really new to you guys? It is possible for a new regime to try and bridge from the old to the new without jettisoning the core veteran leadership of the team and some brain trusts actually take this approach. On the other hand, other brain trusts prefer to take the path of blowing everything up that the last regime was trying to do because they know the fan base will extend them a honeymoon period to do their demolition and from-the-dirt rebuilding.

 

 

Again, I'll say it very slowly this time. The point is NOT about Milloy's abilities or Whitner's abilities. It was about creating a hole in the line-up that had to be filled.

 

There was no "plan" in place from TDs era. The thing did need to be blown up and re-started from the ground up. The problem was this. If the core vet leadership was kept in place (players such as milloy, moulds), they would be over the hill and would need replacements right now. The Bills were proactvive about getting the replacements in the draft.

 

Its simple really. In 2006, the Bills took a look, and realized that it would be 2-3 years before they could realistically compete. So they decided to jettison the players that would no longer be productive in 2-3 years, players such as milloy. Teams do this all the time, and are lauded for their foresight. Yet you knock the Bills for this same foresight.

[eball]

Ah, right. Milloy isn't a Bill anymore so we are required to hate on him. Oh well.

Hating on him? Hardly. But you making a statement that he is "still playing" as a supposed justification that the Bills should have kept him rather than draft Whitner is pretty ridiculous.

 

The point wasn't that Milloy was or is a great player at this point in his career. Nobody said that. The point was that Dick and Marv simply released a veteran player and created a hole that they then had to go fill. Is this argument really new to you guys? It is possible for a new regime to try and bridge from the old to the new without jettisoning the core veteran leadership of the team and some brain trusts actually take this approach. On the other hand, other brain trusts prefer to take the path of blowing everything up that the last regime was trying to do because they know the fan base will extend them a honeymoon period to do their demolition and from-the-dirt rebuilding.

Do you think that perhaps -- just perhaps -- an analysis of both the playing level and compensation of the veteran player should be taken into account in this "bridge the gap" theory of yours? Marv Levy and Dick Jauron have given NO indication they are "slash and burn" administrators. To the contrary, these guys almost go too far the other way. They certainly gave Losman a season and a half to play his way out of a job. The Bills have also recently given big money to two DEs who were the draft picks of their predecessors.

 

It's entirely possible the Bills decided Lawyer Milloy simply could not do the job at safety for Perry Fewell's defense. If they came to that conclusion, what possible sense does it make to keep his high salary around?

 

Some of you try to make this WAY too complicated.

[dave mcbride]

Ah, right. Milloy isn't a Bill anymore so we are required to hate on him. Oh well.

 

The point wasn't that Milloy was or is a great player at this point in his career. Nobody said that. The point was that Dick and Marv simply released a veteran player and created a hole that they then had to go fill. Is this argument really new to you guys? It is possible for a new regime to try and bridge from the old to the new without jettisoning the core veteran leadership of the team and some brain trusts actually take this approach. On the other hand, other brain trusts prefer to take the path of blowing everything up that the last regime was trying to do because they know the fan base will extend them a honeymoon period to do their demolition and from-the-dirt rebuilding.

 

 

Again, I'll say it very slowly this time. The point is NOT about Milloy's abilities or Whitner's abilities. It was about creating a hole in the line-up that had to be filled.

Milloy *really* struggled in coverage in 2005, and that safety position in the Jauron/Fewell defense has to be able to cover. He still had some attributes after he left, but he was a genuinely bad fit for the defense. The Bills did the right thing, both for themselves and for Milloy.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Ah, right. Milloy isn't a Bill anymore so we are required to hate on him. Oh well.

 

The point wasn't that Milloy was or is a great player at this point in his career. Nobody said that. The point was that Dick and Marv simply released a veteran player and created a hole that they then had to go fill. Is this argument really new to you guys? It is possible for a new regime to try and bridge from the old to the new without jettisoning the core veteran leadership of the team and some brain trusts actually take this approach. On the other hand, other brain trusts prefer to take the path of blowing everything up that the last regime was trying to do because they know the fan base will extend them a honeymoon period to do their demolition and from-the-dirt rebuilding.

 

 

Again, I'll say it very slowly this time. The point is NOT about Milloy's abilities or Whitner's abilities. It was about creating a hole in the line-up that had to be filled.

By 2005, Milloy wasn't that much better than Matt Bowen. Buffalo without Milloy didn't have much more of a need at strong safety than Buffalo with Milloy.