Ramius Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 Theres a lot or talk on the boards about the bills drafting strategy lately, namely about the way the Bills use some picks on CBs. I've run some numbers to simply see what the league says about this arguement. I took a look at all DBs drafted by teams in rounds 1-3 (the old "day 1" picks). I feel that these picks can be expected to reasonably complete and develop into NFL players. I also tracked drafts back to, and including the 2001 draft. That gives the past 7 years (to me, a reasonable time frame), plus this most recent draft. Heres the results. The average team in the NFL has drafted 5.03 DBs in the first 3 rounds since 2001. The Bills have drafted 5 DBs in this same span. The most DB picks spent are by the Colts (10), Chargers (8), Raiders (7), and Packers (7) The fewest DB picks spent are by the Texans (2), Dolphins (2), Buccs (3), and 49ers (3) The average NFL team has spent 1.56 first rounders on DBs in that 8 year span. The Bills have spent 3 firsts, along with 4 other teams. The most firsts spent are the Raiders (5), and the Chargers (4) 6 teams have NOT spent a 1st rounder on a DB in that span, the Browns, Chiefs, Saints, Bears, Vikings, and Lions. For those that say no one drafts like the Bills did in 2006, there are some other notable times teams have spent lots of early picks in the DB(we'll call them BillinNYC drafts). Philly in '02 spent the #26, 58, and 59 picks on DBs San Diego in '03 spent the #30, 46, and 62 picks on DBs Seattle in '03 spent the #11 and 42 picks on DBs Denver in '05 spent their 1st 3 picks, 56, 76, 97 on DBs In the 07 and 08 drafts, the giants have spent the #20 (2007) and then the #31 and 63 picks this year on DBs. Some general thoughts: Teams that do NOT spend picks on the secondary generally have bad secondaries. Note the teams with 0 first rounders spent, 5 of the 6 (bears excluded) have had traditionally garbage secondaries. Also, teams that spent few picks on DBs generally have bad secondaries (miami, houston, san fran) The Buccs have only spent a few picks on DBs, but they have had Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly locking down the CB position for a long time now, thus having no need to replenish the secondary. The good teams over the past few years have had wildly different strategies for building their good teams. Some good teams spend more picks on DBs, and some good teams spend fewer picks on DBs. There is no one set formula to follow. The numbers are all over the board. In conclusion: While there is no set method for being a good team, it seems to be that ignoring the secondary on draft day is simply not a smart move. Teams that ignore the secondary early on draft day have bad secondaries. If you look at the teams with few picks early spent on DBs, you'll see a shortage of victories and playoff success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Long Beach Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 Interesting. Nice work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 Actually, that was very nice work. I am guessing that the results differed from what you expected. I think that we both know that we could talk about this for hours and draw several conclusions. Btw, TB drafted a first round db this year. As you well know, I was quite fond of their 06 and 07 drafts, especially 06. After 2 drafts like that, why not go for a db at #20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steely Dan Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 Theres a lot or talk on the boards about the bills drafting strategy lately, namely about the way the Bills use some picks on CBs. I've run some numbers to simply see what the league says about this arguement. I took a look at all DBs drafted by teams in rounds 1-3 (the old "day 1" picks). I feel that these picks can be expected to reasonably complete and develop into NFL players. I also tracked drafts back to, and including the 2001 draft. That gives the past 7 years (to me, a reasonable time frame), plus this most recent draft. Heres the results. The average team in the NFL has drafted 5.03 DBs in the first 3 rounds since 2001. The Bills have drafted 5 DBs in this same span. The most DB picks spent are by the Colts (10), Chargers (8), Raiders (7), and Packers (7) The fewest DB picks spent are by the Texans (2), Dolphins (2), Buccs (3), and 49ers (3) The average NFL team has spent 1.56 first rounders on DBs in that 8 year span. The Bills have spent 3 firsts, along with 4 other teams. The most firsts spent are the Raiders (5), and the Chargers (4) 6 teams have NOT spent a 1st rounder on a DB in that span, the Browns, Chiefs, Saints, Bears, Vikings, and Lions. For those that say no one drafts like the Bills did in 2006, there are some other notable times teams have spent lots of early picks in the DB(we'll call them BillinNYC drafts). Philly in '02 spent the #26, 58, and 59 picks on DBs San Diego in '03 spent the #30, 46, and 62 picks on DBs Seattle in '03 spent the #11 and 42 picks on DBs Denver in '05 spent their 1st 3 picks, 56, 76, 97 on DBs In the 07 and 08 drafts, the giants have spent the #20 (2007) and then the #31 and 63 picks this year on DBs. Some general thoughts: Teams that do NOT spend picks on the secondary generally have bad secondaries. Note the teams with 0 first rounders spent, 5 of the 6 (bears excluded) have had traditionally garbage secondaries. Also, teams that spent few picks on DBs generally have bad secondaries (miami, houston, san fran) The Buccs have only spent a few picks on DBs, but they have had Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly locking down the CB position for a long time now, thus having no need to replenish the secondary. The good teams over the past few years have had wildly different strategies for building their good teams. Some good teams spend more picks on DBs, and some good teams spend fewer picks on DBs. There is no one set formula to follow. The numbers are all over the board. In conclusion: While there is no set method for being a good team, it seems to be that ignoring the secondary on draft day is simply not a smart move. Teams that ignore the secondary early on draft day have bad secondaries. If you look at the teams with few picks early spent on DBs, you'll see a shortage of victories and playoff success. You really put some work into that! Great job. Somebody also showed that teams that draft DL's high do well too. I think the lesson here is that defense wins championships. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AKC Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 The average team in the NFL has drafted 5.03 DBs in the first 3 rounds since 2001. The Bills have drafted 5 DBs in this same span. The most DB picks spent are by the Colts (10), Chargers (8), Raiders (7), and Packers (7) The fewest DB picks spent are by the Texans (2), Dolphins (2), Buccs (3), and 49ers (3) What a total load of crap. You consider a CB taken with the 1st pick in the draft the same as a cornerback taken with the 90th pick. In your fantasy the Bills used 3 first round picks on DBs since 2001, including an 11th, 12th and 21st overall. Philly has used only one 1st rounder in that span, a #26, on a DB. Your argument ignores the value of the pick as it goes up the board. Philly HAS used three 1st rounders on DLinemen, but we all know what you think about drafting DLinemen in the first (Go WR! Go WR!)! You either don't understand the game of football in any meaningful way or you're full of crap- no one with a grasp of the game would try to suggest a third round corner is an any way the equal of a early 1st round corner like your poorly framed view insists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sketch Soland Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 What a total load of crap. You consider a CB taken with the 1st pick in the draft the same as a cornerback taken with the 90th pick. In your fantasy the Bills used 3 first round picks on DBs since 2001, including an 11th, 12th and 21st overall. Philly has used only one 1st rounder in that span, a #26, on a DB. Your argument ignores the value of the pick as it goes up the board. Philly HAS used three 1st rounders on DLinemen, but we all know what you think about drafting DLinemen in the first (Go WR! Go WR!)! You either don't understand the game of football in any meaningful way or you're full of crap- no one with a grasp of the game would try to suggest a third round corner is an any way the equal of a early 1st round corner like your poorly framed view insists. You are such a condescending, arrogant bastard, it's amazing! SOMEONE TAKES HIMSELF TOO SERIOUSLY. Who might that be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steely Dan Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 What a total load of crap. You consider a CB taken with the 1st pick in the draft the same as a cornerback taken with the 90th pick. In your fantasy the Bills used 3 first round picks on DBs since 2001, including an 11th, 12th and 21st overall. Philly has used only one 1st rounder in that span, a #26, on a DB. Your argument ignores the value of the pick as it goes up the board. Philly HAS used three 1st rounders on DLinemen, but we all know what you think about drafting DLinemen in the first (Go WR! Go WR!)! You either don't understand the game of football in any meaningful way or you're full of crap- no one with a grasp of the game would try to suggest a third round corner is an any way the equal of a early 1st round corner like your poorly framed view insists. So I'm trying to figure this out. You do or don't agree with the thread title. You are such a condescending arrogant bastard, it's amazing! :lol: SOMEONE TAKES THEM SELF TOO SERIOUSLY. Who might that be? :lol: That's another poser. Oh wait, I think I know who the poser is here. Hey dimwit why don't you put a lot of work into your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 You are such a condescending arrogant bastard, it's amazing! SOMEONE TAKES THEM SELF TOO SERIOUSLY. Who might that be? The best you can hope for as the clock ticks is...existential ennui. It passes the time, I'll give it that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sketch Soland Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 That's another poser. Oh wait, I think I know who the poser is here. Hey dimwit why don't you put a lot of work into your opinion? I'm posing for a nude spread for a local gay magazine today, if that's what you mean by poser. Other than that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steely Dan Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 I'm posing for a nude spread for a local gay magazine today, if that's what you mean by poser. Other than that.... Thank God I have no idea what you look like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted May 12, 2008 Author Share Posted May 12, 2008 Actually, that was very nice work. I am guessing that the results differed from what you expected. I think that we both know that we could talk about this for hours and draw several conclusions. Btw, TB drafted a first round db this year. As you well know, I was quite fond of their 06 and 07 drafts, especially 06. After 2 drafts like that, why not go for a db at #20? Tampa went with a CB this year because they let Brian Kelly go and Barber is getting up there in age. They knew they had to have a CB this year. What tampa has done exceptionally well (and this is probably a result of them running the Tampa-2) is uncover DB gems in other rounds. Donnie Abraham was a 3rd, John Lynch was a 3rd, Ronde Barber was a 3rd, Brian Kelly was a second, Dexter Jackson was a 4th, Dwight Smith was a 3rd, Jermaine Phillips was a 3rd, and Tanard Jackson a 4th. Since they had quality DBs already in place, especially with Barber, they were able to focus the bulk of the last couple of drafts on the OL (that, and the fact that their OL was absolute garbage prior to that point. It all comes down to drafting positions that are weak on your team. Tampa had spent a good chunk of 1st day draft picks on the secondary, hitting on a lot fo them, which allowed them to put the secondary on the back burner. They also hit it big last offseason with the signing of Philip Buchanon. He played a role in their success last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted May 12, 2008 Author Share Posted May 12, 2008 What a total load of crap. You consider a CB taken with the 1st pick in the draft the same as a cornerback taken with the 90th pick. In your fantasy the Bills used 3 first round picks on DBs since 2001, including an 11th, 12th and 21st overall. Philly has used only one 1st rounder in that span, a #26, on a DB. Your argument ignores the value of the pick as it goes up the board. Philly HAS used three 1st rounders on DLinemen, but we all know what you think about drafting DLinemen in the first (Go WR! Go WR!)! You either don't understand the game of football in any meaningful way or you're full of crap- no one with a grasp of the game would try to suggest a third round corner is an any way the equal of a early 1st round corner like your poorly framed view insists. What exactly does Philly drafting DTs and teams drafting WRs have anything to do with the average amount of DBs selected by the NFL? And before you continue your frothing lunacy, read (top to bottom, left to right, group words to form sentences) the next segment of my post where you'll see a comparison of the average # of first round picks spent on DBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Rob Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 What a total load of crap. You consider a CB taken with the 1st pick in the draft the same as a cornerback taken with the 90th pick. In your fantasy the Bills used 3 first round picks on DBs since 2001, including an 11th, 12th and 21st overall. Philly has used only one 1st rounder in that span, a #26, on a DB. Your argument ignores the value of the pick as it goes up the board. Philly HAS used three 1st rounders on DLinemen, but we all know what you think about drafting DLinemen in the first (Go WR! Go WR!)! You either don't understand the game of football in any meaningful way or you're full of crap- no one with a grasp of the game would try to suggest a third round corner is an any way the equal of a early 1st round corner like your poorly framed view insists. I have to disagree with your argument.I think that you would agree that when a team picks any player in the first 3 rounds they are expected to come in and play.Rounds 4 through 7 I can understand a player getting cut but in the first 3 rounds there is absolutly starting value in all those picks.Rounds 1 through 3 are picked for starters 4 through 7 is when you see picks for special teams and project players who you like. And to say someone doesn't understand the game of football because he doesn't agree with your narrow view of the game is wrong also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AKC Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 the next segment of my post where you'll see a comparison of the average # of first round picks spent on DBs. With your unsupportable "average" requiring we consider the drafting of Ashton Yobouty be of the same impact as drafting Nate Clements. Try again- your hole keeps gettin' bigger! I have to disagree with your argument.I think that you would agree that when a team picks any player in the first 3 rounds they are expected to come in and play.Rounds 4 through 7 I can understand a player getting cut but in the first 3 rounds there is absolutly starting value in all those picks.Rounds 1 through 3 are picked for starters 4 through 7 is when you see picks for special teams and project players who you like. WRamius has made some argument that requires you accept the 94th pick in the draft having the same impact on any team that the 4th player taken, and it's sheer lunacy. His inability to recognize that teams making an investment in DBs with an 11 pick is going to have more impact on the team making the pick immediately and into the future versus a team making a DB selection at 84 is among the worst analysis made on TSW this year. Perhaps ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sketch Soland Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 Try again- your hole keeps gettin' bigger! The only thing getting bigger around here is the size of your ego Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Rob Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 With your unsupportable "average" requiring we consider the drafting of Ashton Yobouty be of the same impact as drafting Nate Clements. Try again- your hole keeps gettin' bigger! Not really when you consider that it hurts the Bills when a player like Youboty doesn't pan out.If he were a 4th round or later pick not so bad but a player taken in the 1st 3 rounds is expected by the organization to become a starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted May 12, 2008 Author Share Posted May 12, 2008 With your unsupportable "average" requiring we consider the drafting of Ashton Yobouty be of the same impact as drafting Nate Clements. Try again- your hole keeps gettin' bigger! WRamius has made some argument that requires you accept the 94th pick in the draft having the same impact on any team that the 4th player taken, and it's sheer lunacy. His inability to recognize that teams making an investment in DBs with an 11 pick is going to have more impact on the team making the pick immediately and into the future versus a team making a DB selection at 84 is among the worst analysis made on TSW this year. Perhaps ever. keep the comedy coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Fong Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 The average NFL team has spent 1.56 first rounders on DBs in that 8 year span. The Bills have spent 3 firsts, along with 4 other teams. The most firsts spent are the Raiders (5), and the Chargers (4) 6 teams have NOT spent a 1st rounder on a DB in that span, the Browns, Chiefs, Saints, Bears, Vikings, and Lions. To me that says it all. I don't have an issue with them spending picks in the first three rounds, the problem I have is with spending picks in the first. And as your stats show they have spent twice the league average on first round DBs. So yes the Bills DO spend more first round picks on the secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsVet Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 Where does Buffalo rank since 2006? I'd be interested to see that. The Bills have selected 7 DB's out of 26 total picks, or about 1/4 of their selections. 2006: Donte Whitner, Ashton Youboty, and Ko Simpson 2007: John Wendling 2008: Leodis McKelvin, Reggie Corner, Kennard Cox DJ also inherited Clements and McGee. The Bills FO cut Milloy and Vincent, while signing William James this past off-season. Bryan Scott was signed off the street free agent list, as was Jeremetrius Butler in 2007. Needless to say, the Bills have performed several acquisitions in only a few offseasons, headlined by 7 DB's taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zulu Cthulhu Posted May 12, 2008 Share Posted May 12, 2008 WRamius has made some argument that requires you accept the 94th pick in the draft having the same impact on any team that the 4th player taken, and it's sheer lunacy. His inability to recognize that teams making an investment in DBs with an 11 pick is going to have more impact on the team making the pick immediately and into the future versus a team making a DB selection at 84 is among the worst analysis made on TSW this year. Perhaps ever. Come on man you are not serious are you? What you fail to realize, or even mention in passing, is that 1st round picks, even high first rounders, can easily be busts as well. Some are just way overvalued. Some unfortunately get hurt and aren't able to play up to their talents. Sometimes you draft an otherwise great player that gets arrested 8 times in twelve months and get suspended by the league for a year. What Ramius said if you actually read the post is that 1-3 rounders have reasonable chances to develop into NFL players, as opposed to late round picks who get cut or placed on the practice squad. Ramius outlined a well-researched topic and you respond with an ornery, unsupported, one-sided response. You are the clown buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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