Dwight Drane Posted May 9, 2008 Share Posted May 9, 2008 No, not at all...I'm saying that your odds of losing are no less that 20 to 1. And there are few horse races that put 20 of tomorrow's gluepots in the starting gate. I'm not aware of any lottery game that gives you a 1 and 20 chance to at least recover your initial bet. The average lottery game pays back 60% to 70% of funds put in. The average track pays back 80% to 90% of funds put in. So using the Derby as an example...Churchill Downs takes out 16% on win bets. You could have bet $2 on every horse to win and that would cost you $40 total. You would expect to get back $33.60 when you average out the odds on all the horses running. When the gates open, you just need to hope a horse at 19-1 or better ends up winning for you to make money. There were 14 horses that would have paid back more than $40 if they won. There were 2 horses that would have paid between $33.60 and $40. There were only 4 horses out of 20 that would pay you back less than the $33.60 you should expect. So, assuming all horses had an equal chance of winning, you had a 70% chance to make a profit, and an 85% chance to beat the expected return. In the Lottery, every number does have an equal chance of being drawn, and if you bet $2 on every number in the pick3, it would cost you $2,000. After the 40% takeout, your expected payback would be $1,200. The difference here is that no matter what number comes up, you will never have a chance to make a profit. You are going to win $1,200. That is what is so great about horseracing. The mutual odds are supposed to level the rate of returns, but people are betting big money on potential outcomes that could backfire. So when Big Brown is 2-5 in the Preakness and will pay $2.80 to win, yet his feet have a decent chance to fail him, he may be a bad bet. Every other horse running will probably be 8-1 or higher, and if you think you see a horse that has a chance to beat him, you can take advantage of the overbet situation and really make some good money. That is the name of the game. I would usually never reccomend betting every horse in a race to Win, but the Preakness may be one of those rare times that you are sure to make a profit as long as one horse doesn't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwight Drane Posted May 17, 2008 Share Posted May 17, 2008 Ok.....I will offer $42.00 for the website! What a freak that horse is. I thought that the tight turns and hard surface might have gotten to the shoes, but they used some Efferdent on those babies. This horse is a true freak of nature. Smarty Jones was a great horse, but horses don't make that sort of move on dirt that Big Brown made today. You see it on turf because many turf races run slow, then sprint to the finish...but all the other horses were just trying to hang in there when this sucker took off. I would advise anyone that wanted to try and see a triple crown winner to head to Belmont. There is a chance something can still pop up before the race, but it looked like he didn't even try today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestojan Posted May 17, 2008 Author Share Posted May 17, 2008 I added a picture of the monster to the website. Just trying to show that I am just a big fan, not someone trying to profit from this... Go Big Brown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steely Dan Posted May 17, 2008 Share Posted May 17, 2008 F---in' A Right! http://www.bigbrownwinsthetriplecrown.com (and in case you think I just put the TBD link in there, go ahead and type the URL in yourself... g'ahead... it's fun!) How much for a Pinkie Pie website? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In space no one can hear Posted May 18, 2008 Share Posted May 18, 2008 Ok.....I will offer $42.00 for the website! What a freak that horse is. I thought that the tight turns and hard surface might have gotten to the shoes, but they used some Efferdent on those babies. This horse is a true freak of nature. Smarty Jones was a great horse, but horses don't make that sort of move on dirt that Big Brown made today. You see it on turf because many turf races run slow, then sprint to the finish...but all the other horses were just trying to hang in there when this sucker took off. I would advise anyone that wanted to try and see a triple crown winner to head to Belmont. There is a chance something can still pop up before the race, but it looked like he didn't even try today. Well said Dwight! I'm no expert on horse racing, but watching Big Brown run it seems obvious one is watching a great athlete. A rare, exceptional athlete at that! When I watch Big Brown run, it echos the feeling I had watching some of the past greats , I'll even throw out the name Secreatariat, which I don't do lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofiba Posted May 18, 2008 Share Posted May 18, 2008 Well said Dwight! I'm no expert on horse racing, but watching Big Brown run it seems obvious one is watching a great athlete. A rare, exceptional athlete at that! When I watch Big Brown run, it echos the feeling I had watching some of the past greats , I'll even throw ouythe name Secreatariat, which I don't do lightly. I am no expert, but wasn't Big Brown racing against a bunch of stiffs? Only one other horse from the Derby (the race that presumably gets the best horses) even raced today. Do they time the race? Where does his time stand up against other winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steely Dan Posted May 18, 2008 Share Posted May 18, 2008 I am no expert, but wasn't Big Brown racing against a bunch of stiffs? Only one other horse from the Derby (the race that presumably gets the best horses) even raced today. Do they time the race? Where does his time stand up against other winners. I don't think the jockeys should whip them. The should just hold bottles of glue just within the horses view as a subtle reminder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofiba Posted May 18, 2008 Share Posted May 18, 2008 I don't think the jockeys should whip them. The should just hold bottles of glue just within the horses view as a subtle reminder. Forget glue, how about a picture of the slaughterhouse they'll get sent to if they stop winning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In space no one can hear Posted May 18, 2008 Share Posted May 18, 2008 I am no expert, but wasn't Big Brown racing against a bunch of stiffs? Only one other horse from the Derby (the race that presumably gets the best horses) even raced today. Do they time the race? Where does his time stand up against other winners. I don't think just listing the times of past winners will really show who is the best. You brought up a good point of competition faced, then there is the track condition factor which can vary greatly, and in Big Browns case it was clear the jockey pulled him up and wasn't exactly focused on getting the best time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted May 18, 2008 Share Posted May 18, 2008 That horse is special no matter who the competition is. He has that extra gear that only the great ones have. He literally ran a little over a quarter mile in that race and still won by over 5 lengths. That's legendary stuff, no matter who the competition is. I started following horse racing when I was a kid. It just so happened that the first year I knew what the Triple Crown was, Seattle Slew won it. The following year, Affirmed won it in legendary fashion. I thought: what's the big deal? I've been waiting 30 years to see it again. Big Brown is the real deal. He has the best shot to do it in 30 years. Even better than War Emblem, who I think would have won had he gotten out of the gate clean. One of my favorite horses of all time, Sunday Silence, just couldn't handle the distance at Belmont. I don't think that's gonna be a problem for Big Brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taterhill Posted May 18, 2008 Share Posted May 18, 2008 I wonder what Big Brown will start at for the Belmont... i think the final was 1:5 for the Preakness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In space no one can hear Posted May 18, 2008 Share Posted May 18, 2008 That horse is special no matter who the competition is. He has that extra gear that only the great ones have. He literally ran a little over a quarter mile in that race and still won by over 5 lengths. That's legendary stuff, no matter who the competition is. I started following horse racing when I was a kid. It just so happened that the first year I knew what the Triple Crown was, Seattle Slew won it. The following year, Affirmed won it in legendary fashion. I thought: what's the big deal? I've been waiting 30 years to see it again. Big Brown is the real deal. He has the best shot to do it in 30 years. Even better than War Emblem, who I think would have won had he gotten out of the gate clean. One of my favorite horses of all time, Sunday Silence, just couldn't handle the distance at Belmont. I don't think that's gonna be a problem for Big Brown. I just watched The Derby, Preakness and Belmont races between Affirmed and Alydar on You Tube. What an epic rivalry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HopsGuy Posted May 18, 2008 Share Posted May 18, 2008 I wonder what Big Brown will start at for the Belmont... i think the final was 1:5 for the Preakness As soon as it ended, I texted all of my buddies declaring it would be 1:10. One guy came back saying that he heard that some Saudi horse would be brought in. All I could think of was that guy that Commodus brought in to beat Maximus ("It's been arranged.") Pffffffttttt. Whatever. I might buy some UPS calls as a derivative play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwight Drane Posted May 18, 2008 Share Posted May 18, 2008 As soon as it ended, I texted all of my buddies declaring it would be 1:10. One guy came back saying that he heard that some Saudi horse would be brought in. All I could think of was that guy that Commodus brought in to beat Maximus ("It's been arranged.") Pffffffttttt. Whatever. I might buy some UPS calls as a derivative play. He'll be 1-9. Everyone gets $2 tickets to sell on Ebay and for a scrapbook. Casino Drive is a new horse on the scene and his mother is the mother of Rags to Riches and Jazil who both won the Belmont. The biggest thing about Big Brown is that he is intelligent. That is the most underrated thing about horses. A smart horse knows what you want out of it and will protect himself from getting hurt most of the time. We have run horses that don't need to be whipped...they know their job and a whip might even throw them off stride. Most of the whipping that goes on is just a jockey trying to get in sympatico with the horse. A horse takes a breath every stride, so a good jock worries more about getting a solid encouraging neck scrub going to keep everything smooth. There are idiots that will whip a horse that has no chance though, and that is just stupidity. I've only had one time where I went apesh!t on a jockey for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted May 18, 2008 Share Posted May 18, 2008 I wonder what Big Brown will start at for the Belmont... i think the final was 1:5 for the Preakness Was strange yesterday as the place money was more than the win money. I know the #1 was big, but stiil thought it strange. Big paid $2.40 to win,$2.60 to place, and $2.40 to show. BTW, why in the world any one would bet him to win is beyond me. As shown by those prices , most likely same money paid to win or show. Also, is NY a .05 or a .10 state? I looked online but could not find it. I wonder if NY will allow show wagering? does anybody know if a major race like that has ever backed off show betting? BTW, good article by Beyer in the Post today. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...8051702736.html In essence, says we don't know if he is a great horse yet as the compitition is wanting. Says even if he winds Triple Crown, real judgement will be when he starts racing older fellas in summer and fall. Lord, I would love to see Curlin vs Big Brown match race!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwight Drane Posted May 19, 2008 Share Posted May 19, 2008 Was strange yesterday as the place money was more than the win money. I know the #1 was big, but stiil thought it strange. Big paid $2.40 to win,$2.60 to place, and $2.40 to show. BTW, why in the world any one would bet him to win is beyond me. As shown by those prices , most likely same money paid to win or show. Also, is NY a .05 or a .10 state? I looked online but could not find it. I wonder if NY will allow show wagering? does anybody know if a major race like that has ever backed off show betting? BTW, good article by Beyer in the Post today. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...8051702736.html In essence, says we don't know if he is a great horse yet as the compitition is wanting. Says even if he winds Triple Crown, real judgement will be when he starts racing older fellas in summer and fall. Lord, I would love to see Curlin vs Big Brown match race!!!!! I am pretty sure NY goes down to $2.10 with the comingling of Canadian funds as the excuse. I don't think he will go down that low because it looks as if a few of the better horses are going to take a shot at him here. I think he paid more to place yesterday because of all the people printing out the $2 tickets to sell on Ebay and for collector's item + keepsake. I was at the Preakness for Smarty Jones and kept an uncashed win ticket just in case. The untold story here is that folks in Buffalo should root for Big Brown. Why? If all these people don't cash the $2 win tickets and keep them because they are worth more on Ebay than to cash at the track, the state of NY gets to keep all that money that should have been paid out. Not the track, not the other gamblers, but the state. Maybe Big Brown can fund another 10 sets of blueprints for the "signature bridge" that is talked about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted May 19, 2008 Share Posted May 19, 2008 I am pretty sure NY goes down to $2.10 with the comingling of Canadian funds as the excuse. I don't think he will go down that low because it looks as if a few of the better horses are going to take a shot at him here. I think he paid more to place yesterday because of all the people printing out the $2 tickets to sell on Ebay and for collector's item + keepsake. I was at the Preakness for Smarty Jones and kept an uncashed win ticket just in case. The untold story here is that folks in Buffalo should root for Big Brown. Why? If all these people don't cash the $2 win tickets and keep them because they are worth more on Ebay than to cash at the track, the state of NY gets to keep all that money that should have been paid out. Not the track, not the other gamblers, but the state. Maybe Big Brown can fund another 10 sets of blueprints for the "signature bridge" that is talked about. But, I can see some heavy money coming in on him to show. 5% in a day is attractive to a lot of people. I could see some rich fuggers putting $10M on his nose to show. Afterall, winning 500K in two minutes doesn't suck. Get 5 guys to do that, and all of a sudden NYRA taking a beating on the Belmont. I think pulling show wagering would hurt them even worse than the financial hit, but just saying my guess is they will lose a bundle on the show pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwight Drane Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 But, I can see some heavy money coming in on him to show. 5% in a day is attractive to a lot of people. I could see some rich fuggers putting $10M on his nose to show. Afterall, winning 500K in two minutes doesn't suck. Get 5 guys to do that, and all of a sudden NYRA taking a beating on the Belmont. I think pulling show wagering would hurt them even worse than the financial hit, but just saying my guess is they will lose a bundle on the show pool. He paid $2.40 to show in the Preakness though. There is some room for a bridgejumper to jump on board and not be a problem. I think he was a much bigger lock to show in the Preakness than in the Belmont. They will make so much money on the other pools and admissions that even if someone did something crazy, they won't lose much on the show pool. If Big Brown was running at Suffolk Downs in a 50K Turf stakes, then you might want to hold back the show bets! The fun will be, how much will a Big Brown/ Casino Drive exacta pay? $5 for $2??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwight Drane Posted May 26, 2008 Share Posted May 26, 2008 If you want, I can go round up some poop from his stall and you can sell it on line. I don't know.....I don't think he'll make it to the Belmont. His feet are so bad, and the Pimlico surface is such that he will be hurtig big time if he runs back so quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if a few days before the Belmont, or even the Preakness, he "develops a fever" that prevents him from running. They want to retire him undefeated. His front feet are missing over 50% and he is being held together by an artificial substance that molds to the foot. They have to glue his shoes on because there isn't enough to nail them into. Those come off pretty easily. He is a freak, so anything is possible if he makes it to the track. And now.....I'll pay $13 for the domain name. My Achin' Feet He sure looked ok in Baltimore. They already sold the stud rights, so there is no pressure on them not to run. It just would be stupid if he goes out there and we have another disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted May 26, 2008 Share Posted May 26, 2008 And now.....I'll pay $13 for the domain name. My Achin' Feet He sure looked ok in Baltimore. They already sold the stud rights, so there is no pressure on them not to run. It just would be stupid if he goes out there and we have another disaster. Saw that. Looks like a convenient excuse in the event he cant win at belmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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